The Xpert Handicappers

[Bruddah]

Does anyone know how all of the so called expert handicappers did, in handicapping the Preakness? I haven't seen one article, where one picked Afleet Alex to win. They were all touting others, which got me a square price on AA. You gotta love these guys. I don't think any of them have picked a Triple Crown winner in the new millenia. Coincidence? I think not!

I use their articles to eliminate horses in a race. (JMHO) The print jockeys are a great source for misinformation. Yet the public swallows it, hook, line and sinker.
:D :lol: :jump:

[Observer]

Maybe it depends on who you consider a "so-called expert." I am sure someone somewhere gave out Afleet Alex .. he was just too obvious to have been overlooked by all of the "experts."

[wonatthewire1]

Elliot Starr had the trifecta

Davidowitz > well, let's just say he lost a bundle!

[Pace Cap'n]

Here are a few that did have AA on top:

Arrington
Modesti
S. Finley
Cronley

[cj]

It's Ellis Star, here is what he said:

Preakness Exotic Betting Suggestions:

Exacta: 2,5 over 1,2,5,7,9,12,13 (for every $1 bet cost $12)

Trifectas (2 different tickets):
2,5 with 1,2,5,7,9,12,13 with 1,2,5,7,9,12,13 ($60 cost for $1 ticket)
2,5,7,12,13 with 2,5 with 1,2,5,7,9,12,13 ($40 cost)

[wonatthewire1]

thanks for the correction CJ > I was going from memory on the name

[cj]

No problem, didn't want to see a whole new "Stewart Elliot blew the Belmont" thread break out! :D

[Bruddah]

for pointing out those with a "shotgun" ticket approach to the winner. I use this angle myself. However, AA wasn't their first or obvious choice to win. I am still looking for one of the print jockeys who wrote they thought AA would win. Straight out and no gimmicks. Just as Observer pointed out, he was fairly obvious. (JMHO)

As a collective group, they must be 0 for 500( :confused: ) in the first two legs of the Triple Crown. I picked AA to when the Derby and Preakness. Without the suicide pace of the Derby, he would have won there.

Whatever their motives or reasons, I would like to thank them for the square price. Please, will they do it again for the Belmont? ( ;) :D )

[46zilzal]

for pointing out those with a "shotgun" ticket approach to the winner. I use this angle myself. However, AA wasn't their first or obvious choice to win.
Just about half of the people on the Sartin boards had the little guy ON TOP, I blieve even MORE than had him in the Derby....ON TOP, and again Bob (from Texas) just played the top four total energy horses in his winning TRIFECTA.

Here is Bob's note
"BOB XXXXX"
Date: Sat May 21, 2005
Subject: Re: [SartinAlums] Re: preakness

I put in a tri on top 4 on pa and it paid over $800. afleet, snappy and Giacomo.

[46zilzal]

wrote this before and will note it again: beyond a certian level (top 5) slecting the nags in EXACTLY the correct positions has a LOT to do with just LUCK: one gets bumped, another gets shut off, rider drops the whip. You have to have MULTIPLE scenarios at hand to survive that randomness.

[Bruddah]

There were a lot of everyday handicappers who had him (Afleet Alex) to win, as evidenced by the 3 to 1 odds, I received. My point is the print media experts, which annually lead the "occasional or annual" player down the merry road. As a collective group, of so called handicappng experts, few, if any ever pick a Triple Crown winner. Even with bad or longshot handicapping, they collectively should pick 10% winners. Is this group of handicapping officiandos that bad. Year end and year out, they seem to miss the boat on the big races.

I come to the conclusion, I either have to question their collective abilities to pick winners, or is there another reason? I would think, if they do this for a living, they should be able to pick the winner approx. 20% of the time.
Especially, in the marquee races.

[46zilzal]

an iconoclast (my favorite) usually is close. The trackman at Churchill for many years for the DRF, he knows enough about the course and the requirements to give you ar pretty good overview of that race.

the EXPERTS have their own collective perspecetives Stitch looks at the pedigree, Christ looks more as betting possibilities etc.

[PaceAdvantage]

Hey 46, not to be a jerk or anything, but did you post your picks anywhere pre-race (Derby or Preakness)? I read through tons of notes everyday, so if I missed yours, I apologize in advance.

[Bobby]

Jerry Stokes had the winner, exacta, and trifecta.

ALSO, IM not his SCHILL or anything like that. I subscribe to his newsletter. Just trying to be informative. I didn't bet it his picks. I just bet AA TO WIN.

Anyway from Jerry's newsletter:

"Now to my selection for KEY horse. I like #12 Afleet Alex to come back and
put in a really good showing. If I wager I'll KEY him with #2-4-5-7-9-11 and
13 depending on the tote for the key to which combo's will be worth going
after. I'll do the same in the trifecta depending again on the odds to tell
me whether it's worth the gamble. I would not be totally surprised to see #5
in the top 3 with 2 RSL and 2WSLR if that means anything."

[46zilzal]

Hey 46, not to be a jerk or anything, but did you post your picks anywhere pre-race (Derby or Preakness)? I read through tons of notes everyday, so if I missed yours, I apologize in advance.

Some years there are no picks: this was one year although I did have a sentimental pick in Aflleet because of the little girl's plight. Agreed with Steve Crist: too many horse make it a VERY difficult choice even the best often get severe traffic trouble.

[Lasix1]

There were a lot of everyday handicappers who had him (Afleet Alex) to win, as evidenced by the 3 to 1 odds, I received. My point is the print media experts, which annually lead the "occasional or annual" player down the merry road. As a collective group, of so called handicappng experts, few, if any ever pick a Triple Crown winner. I would think, if they do this for a living, they should be able to pick the winner approx. 20% of the time. Especially, in the marquee races.
I'll bet if you checked you'd find that the 'Experts', those well-followed print and T.V. handicappers--Beyer, Privman, Moss, Sweeps, Hermes, Trackman, et. al., actually hit the Preakness quite often, as they did this time. That's because the Preakness is the most formful of the Triple Crown races and they tend to use very conventional handicapping methods: recent form, recent speed, M/L, connections, etc. that land you on the winner if the race is as formful as the Preakness typically is.

This also explains why they so often fall on their faces in the Derby. There are very few conventional handicapping factors that would have landed you on Giacomo in this year's Derby or Saravo a few years back in the Belmont. If the Derby does run formfully, lots of them have it, as they did last year with Smarty Jones.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Since you posted, Beyer had CA and AA for third. He said if AA ran his best he would win. Who didn't? He also siad longshots may come in.