What handicapping outfits won't sell you

[fishorsechess]

Companies like Brisnet, Equibase, DRF sell stats, PP, figures but
one thing they won't sell a BETTING LINE after the scratches
are made. I am beginning to sound like "Overlay". Its the most
important tool they can sell you but they won'tt. A fair odds line.

[Tom]

Would you really WANT an odds line made by BRIS or Ebase en mass, after x's, with a half hour to post?

[mcikey01]

Agree completely with Tom...The value of wagering information is always inversely proportional to its use.

Besides, if a handicapping outfit were to offer for sale a fair odds line subsequent to any last minute changes in the elements of a race, it's going to be at a premium price, considering the last minute bustle - it's a business, the payoff profit-wise may not justify the expense and if something can go wrong , it will- especially, if they already offer a "before-changes" odds line.

And, do you want to pay any price to be informed of a odds line shift that involves, say the scratch of a 30-1 ML horse in a twelve horse field. Or, three late scratches in an 8 horse field with a jockey or equipment change thrown in for good measure

If you desire to purchase that infomation, no odds line in the world can help you as a bettor.

Sorry, sir... Nice thought ... but in both a business world sense and betting world sense, it's just not real.

[bettheoverlay]

Bris's Profit Line, with odds line for top contendors, is updated throughout the day, according to their website.

[mcikey01]

Stilll have to question whether an updated odds line post -scratches or othe last minute changes is based on a mere mechanical distribution of a scratched contender's probability or a total recalculation of the probability based on all handicapping elements used in that handicapping services odds line odds . And what , pray tell, happens if there is a sudden pre-race rider change?
or if the change occurs to a prohibtive favorite versus a prohibitve "no-shot"? Too many variables, too many imponderables for my taste !

[tholl]

HTR has an odds line that adjusts automatically when you enter the scratches yourself.

[hurrikane]

Its the most
important tool they can sell you.....

nonsense.

[JackS]

In an attempt to get a fair price without handicapping, you could attempt to return the DRF ML's to the "before take-out". Many problems doing this though since the ML totals are already above 100% and are very close to minus the take already.
An independent handicapping method that produces simular win results as the ML with noticable different selection ratings adjusted might work but as with everything in handicapping, it would have to be proven.
An experienced handicapper might be able to produce his own line and develop either an intuition or a machnical ML point adjustment.
I think most handicappers are in the "intuition" camp. They have a feel that the horse that is being considered is either a fair or unfair price and adjust their wagers accordingly.

[Overlay]

An alternative to either paying a premium price to a service, or else going by intuition (however skilled), in obtaining a usable odds line which reflects late changes, is to develop a personal odds line using available, properly-weighted statistical data related to major handicapping factors, while keeping the number of factors manageable enough that last-minute changes can still be incorporated. If the horse you like most gets bet down below its true chance of winning, the use of fair odds then provides wagering options, such as switching to another overlaid horse, looking for value in the exotic pools, or passing the race altogether.

[mcikey01]

OverlayAn alternative to either paying a premium price to a service, or else going by intuition (however skilled), in obtaining a usable odds line which reflects late changes, is to develop a personal odds line using available, properly-weighted statistical data related to major handicapping factors, while keeping the number of factors manageable enough that last-minute changes can still be incorporated.

Good point... There is definitely a "law" of diminshing returns when we add too may factors to race analysis. Seem to recall either a thread or comments at this site that addressed this issue ... In any case, here's some academic research in the area if anyone is interested:

http://gunther.smeal.psu.edu/context/146590/0 (http://gunther.smeal.psu.edu/context/146590/0)