PA 2000 ie

[csmith]

Can this software be purchased anywhere ??

Thanks,
Cliff

[PaceAdvantage]

No....and considering how Noble Causway and High Fly ran today, it may be a good thing....:eek:

[JustRalph]

No....and considering how Noble Causway and High Fly ran today, it may be a good thing....:eek:

I really liked Noble Causeway........today. But he didn't run a step...........

[46zilzal]

I really liked Noble Causeway........today. But he didn't run a step...........
One of the many reasons is that these (below) have NEVER shown that much distance ability (in energry distribution terms) required to get today's distance

Last three for High Fly: Presser- e/p - early

Noble Causeway: s/p - presser - early (with an excuse)

distance got longer, they could not distribute the energy late enough to be effective.

[Tom]

From a velocity standpoint, many in this field had horrible F-3 velocity numbers at shorter distances. No kidding, I see better F-3 numbers at Finger Lakes than many of these slugs posted.
To underline thisl AA FELL TO HIS FRIGGIN KNEES and STILL beat them by daylight. Hehehe. F-3 might be the new dossage.:rolleyes:

[46zilzal]

From a velocity standpoint, many in this field had horrible F-3 velocity numbers at shorter distances. No kidding, I see better F-3 numbers at Finger Lakes than many of these slugs posted.


Go back and put in 2nd and 5th(Lone Star race) back on Afleet to see how much he had over this field and that latter one was as a TWO year old. The intrisnic nature of this three year old really will astound you then

[PaceAdvantage]

Whether you guys are right or wrong about Noble Causeway, there is NO WAY he should have been LAST going down the backstretch.

Something went awfully wrong, and it can't be explained away by F3 or late ability. How badly did he get bumped at the break? I haven't had a chance to see a reply, and probably won't for another hour or two...

[46zilzal]

Whether you guys are right or wrong about Noble Causeway, there is NO WAY he should have been LAST going down the backstretch .

Often young ones get a horrible trip and it takes a few to shake the memory of that out of their heads. Heard that Secretariat never quite got over being mugged in his first start and would break a step tardy for a few after that. Only thing was, that he was so much better 5 feet OUT of the gate that it didn't matter much. Colt named Qubec hit him I believe

[Figman]

PA,
For NOBLE CAUSEWAY trainer change might be in order.
Someone like Bill White who did a much better job training HIGH FLY than did the "media darling from Brooklyn."
Bill White is owed one!

[JustRalph]

Whether you guys are right or wrong about Noble Causeway, there is NO WAY he should have been LAST going down the backstretch.

Something went awfully wrong, and it can't be explained away by F3 or late ability. How badly did he get bumped at the break? I haven't had a chance to see a reply, and probably won't for another hour or two...

PA, I was thinking the same thing and wondering what the hell the horse was doing in that spot. Broke slow............but never seemed in it.

[46zilzal]

From a velocity standpoint, many in this field had horrible F-3 velocity numbers at shorter distances.
Tom

Galloping Grocer was another one: he beat his rivals to maturity and then TOPPED OUT with a "route" racing style that can win with two year olds but not after the class caught up maturity wise. A presser AT BEST, this one could never quite get over 9.0 furlongs (as the late velocities should show)

[Secretariat]

Afleet Alex ran a magnificent race. I don't understand why High Fly was not closer to the pace, or why Noble Causeway never made a move or Wilko for that matter. Scrappy T was a surprise, but this will always be remembered as a corageous performance by Alex. I wasn't on the horse, but was very impressed by the victory.

[PaceAdvantage]

Unfortunately for me and my software, Afleet Alex ran the race TODAY, that I had him running TWO WEEKS ago on paper....LOL

In handicapping the Preakness, I only used AA's DERBY....I should have included the Arkansas race as well.....20/20 hindsight doesn't help at the windows...

[46zilzal]

IT is SO aytpical (MOST of these will never run that distance again) that one of the steadfast rules in Sartin's old Follow Up magazine was NEVER use the Derby pace lines...NEVER

At both the Sartin yahoo groups (Sartin ALums and V/DC Messenger) that was repeated I don't know how often in the past weeks. ALSO a good key is NEVER depend upon a SINGLE paceline:TOO much sample error.

[Tom]

Sartin's guidleines for the Preakness were to always use the same lines for as for the Derby - never use the Derby itself.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm able to use multiple lines, that's not a problem.

Why not use the Derby, if the horse ran a decent race? I realize this year's derby had a fast pace, but it wasn't like Saturday's Preakness pace was SLOW....not by any means.

Plus, at 10 furlongs, the Derby is a closer match to the Preakness at 9.5 furlongs...at least that is my way of thinking....

[jandrus]

I think sartin said not to use the derby because it is adverse type race.

[46zilzal]

Why not use the Derby, if the horse ran a decent race? I realize this year's derby had a fast pace, but it wasn't like Saturday's Preakness pace was SLOW....not by any means.

You cannot project from one of the MOST atypcial races an animal is EVER going to race in again. At the heart of Sartin methods is that you DON'T use lines that are ATYPICAL i.e don't use turf lines for dirt races, dont use routes for sprints, etc. or I go one step further one should not use any line of a similar distance if the energy distribution is not the one that is COMMON when this one is competitive (wrote a long winded note about this: often horses do not compete and win at the same energy distributions: often "need to leads" require no pace pressure to win and when the other earlies fall apart, they run more relaxed as pressers. Often these need to leads ONLY win then by pace default. Nag wins third back as a sustained sprinter but last was close at the normal early/presser distribution. ALWAYS use the line that is closer for the distance and what this one NORMALLY runs.

[PaceAdvantage]

So the Preakness is a typical race? I think given the distance, it's pretty atypical, along with the Derby....

[46zilzal]

So the Preakness is a typical race? I think given the distance, it's pretty atypical, along with the Derby....
No the DERBY only is the atypical one, DOWN the road the Preakness lines (MUCH closer to normal) can be used to project other races. This difference is based upon results for many years, now the exact WHY , I don't know

[PaceAdvantage]

I know, the pace this year was wicked, and there were 20 horses in the field....

Are there any times when you CAN use the Derby to handicap the Preakness, given they are fairly close in terms of distance?

Keep in mind, when I talk of using the Derby to handicap a future race, I am ONLY talking about the Preakness (and possibly the Belmont).

[46zilzal]

Are there any times when you CAN use the Derby to handicap the Preakness, given they are fairly close in terms of distance?
.

THAT is a no, no BIGTIME...doesn't work in the Sartin programs. I tried it several years and it was MORE confusing than helpful.

[Tom]

Often young ones get a horrible trip and it takes a few to shake the memory of that out of their heads. Heard that Secretariat never quite got over being mugged in his first start and would break a step tardy for a few after that. Only thing was, that he was so much better 5 feet OUT of the gate that it didn't matter much. Colt named Qubec hit him I believe

Good point. I have to wonder what the Preakness did to Afleet Alex metally?
Will he hesitate next time out? Will his gameness be tempered until he gets his confidence back?

[pandy]

When I saw your third fraction time I knew that you didn't use his Arkansas Derby line. If you did, his final fraction towered over his Preakness rivals.

[PaceAdvantage]

Yup, I did use the Ark Derby when 'cappin the Kentucky Derby, and AA certainly towered over them....too bad he ran that race two weeks later, when I went off of him....

[pandy]

The intangible with Afleet Alex is that he's a hard trier. Most horses run to their natural speed and the way the pace sets up. Some dig in hard in the lane and try their heart out like Afleet Alex. It has nothing to do with pedigree, it's just personality. Afleet Alex is a lot like Seabisciut, small, compact, quick speed, tries very hard. That being said, I do think that his trainer has done a remarkable job with him. All those miles paid off.

I also like that Ritchey gave credit to his horse. I've always felt that many trainers and riders are overrated. Below a quote from Privman's column in the Form.

"There's hundreds of trainers at big tracks and small tracks who can train a horse to win a Triple Crown race," Ritchey said. "They just need the horse. You don't have to be a D. Wayne Lukas or a Bob Baffert. They start with 50 or 100 2-year-olds. I have four or five. It was proven with Giacomo, and the other first-time trainers. If you have the horse, you can get there."

And in Afleet Alex, Ritchey certainly has the horse.

"Horses make trainers' careers, and make jockeys' careers. I'm lucky to have him," he said.

[NoDayJob]

Whether you guys are right or wrong about Noble Causeway, there is NO WAY he should have been LAST going down the backstretch.

Something went awfully wrong, and it can't be explained away by F3 or late ability. How badly did he get bumped at the break? I haven't had a chance to see a reply, and probably won't for another hour or two...

PA,

Do a data base search and see how many times a horse wins when its AEPS is less than 8% of the average purse of its last four starts. AEPS based on at least 8 starts in the current year; if not, the latest two years.

NDJ

[PaceAdvantage]

Unfortunately, I've never been much of a DB capper....so I don't have a current, active DB....