DerbyTrail
05-20-2005, 04:58 AM
Formful Preakness Typically Not a Spot to "Chase"
By Steve Byk
Leave for Baltimore in the next hour to join Lansdon Robbins for his try at the PIM Special with Offlee Wild... Enjoy the great two days in Bal'more!! http://www.derbytrail.com
Though debate continues to rage on the merits of the Kentucky Derby winner and runner-up, with less than 48 hours until Saturday's 130th Preakness Stakes, we see no reason to seek a major upheaval in the classic's outcome. For years the result of the Preakness has closely mirrored that of the Derby, and with 10 rose runners returning for a try at the black-eyed susies, they should remain the focus of selections.
In fact, with 10 of Saturday's full field having run at Churchill a fortnight ago, the scenario of this second jewel in the Triple Crown appears very similar to Derby 131. There is still a "rabbit" (Going Wild), a hatful of early pace-pressers (High Limit, High Fly, Galloping Grocer), a quality group of tactical speeds (Wilko, Scrappy T, Giacomo, Closing Argument, Greeley's Galaxy), a varied group of mid-pack stalkers (Sun King, Afleet Alex, Hal's Image) and a pair a closers (Noble Causeway, Malibu Moonshine).
The 9.5f Preakness is traditionally run with an initial 6f of about 1:11.0, with a winning time of 1:55.0-1:56.0 typical. Though the Pimlico oval has historically been kind to front end inside speed, the Woodlawn Vase has been garnered most often by runners pressing the pace (2-3 lengths off) or utilizing early field-splitting tactics (5-7 lengths).
We leave for Pimlico early Friday morning, and choose here to keep the Preakness analysis straightforward and simple. Overthinking this middle leg of racing's premier trio of events has rarely been fruitful.
THE 130th PREAKNESS STAKES, Gr. I, $1,000,000, 9.5f, PIM 12th, All carry 126
1.) MALIBU MOONSHINE (King Leatherbury/Steve Hamilton) 20-1: Maryland training legend and solid local rider
click at high rate, and credible FL-bred has won 4 of last 5, all ungraded stakes. But chestnut that wears Marriott family silks has scored in dawdling fashion in events timed with hourglasses. Bred for trip, saves ground, but needs big speed boost to have anything to say about this affair.
2.) HIGH FLY (Nick Zito/Jerry Bailey) 9-2: Our top Derby selection ran well enough to win the Met Mile, but backed up abruptly after chasing insane pace and moving to worst part of Downs strip for Derby's late stages. Has suffered both career losses when launching from wide berth, so move inside should help. But Bailey needs to ensure that Zito-Live Oak colt doesn't get sucked into speed vortex that looms after clubhouse turn. Running "his" race should put him in the mix, but fear every step past 9f. If he's going to win a classic, this would be the one.
3.) NOBLE CAUSEWAY (Nick Zito/Gary Stevens) 10-1: Derby "wiseguy" checked early, checked often in nightmare trip two weeks ago at 12-1. Has in fact run only one "fast" race, the FL Derby second to High Fly. Was Derby a reaction to that new top, or did he need the one in Louisville after the 35 day hiatus? Quick turnaround a solid play for Zito, but this Giant's Causeway red still looks to us like the kind that will do his best work later in the campaign.
4.) GREELEY'S GALAXY (Warren Stute/David Flores) 15-1: Speaking of "wiseguy" horses, Stute-Hughes IL Derby winner wheels back with much to like. One of few here with fig in tow that is in ballpark of typical winning Preakness number (112 Beyer, negative sheet fig), and trainer won this 20 years ago with brother Mel (Snow Chief). Sustained style should play well with good target up front and price invites inclusion. (Note performance of Pollard's Vision on this oval Friday in the Special, as he and this one ran similar races on identical Hawthorne variant surface in April.)
5.) SCRAPPY T (Robert Bailes/Ramon Dominguez) 20-1: Withers-winning gelding has been NY-based version of Closing Argument with nothing but in-the-money finishes in efforts that continually leave fans cheering. Pacey pony has been slightly better on off tracks than dry (3/2-1-0 vs.. 6/1-3-2 ), but that may quibbling. Is ratable according to Bailes, gets PIM-iliar Ramon, should be competitive with pair up, formidable with new top. Using.
6.) HAL'S IMAGE (Barry Rose/Jose Santos) 50-1: Yes, we remember Hal Rose... Yes, we remember Hal's Hope... No, we're not obligated to like this year's Rose family Calder homebred. Likely part of the pace picture off :59.4 bullet, but difficult to see glory for 2 for 16 colt that was 14 lengths behind Sun King in February and picks up 11 pounds from his recent ungraded stakes score. Has improved steadily, but needs big jump to cash a MJC check today.
7.) CLOSING ARGUMENT (Kiaran McLaughlin/Cornelio Velasquez) 5-1: Our #4 Derby tab made us look good and lined pockets nearly annexing roses at 71-1 with remarkable effort 3rd off the bench. Was lone survivor of pace chase two weeks ago, and seems none the worse for wear coming into this. Will use tactical speed, advantageous post to split field early and move when ready. May be impossible to deny in lane this week.
8.) GALLOPING GROCER (Dominick Schettino/Joe Bravo) 30-1: Cross out performance in Bellamy's Wood romp, and this A.P. Jet geldings' record doesn't look as dreadful as people want to make it. Problem seems to have been over the top Remsen effort at two that launched him and Rockport Harbor into sophomore slumps. Showed distinct signs of life in troubled start NY-bred stake four weeks ago, but still would need big new top to hit board here. Pace scenario doesn't suit either, but think he'll run on further than expected.
9.) WILKO (Craig Dollase/Corey Nakatani) 10-1: BC Juvy winner never disgraces himself, but may also still be suffering from explosive juvenile top from which he has yet to progress. Runs consistently, but has yet to reach fig that would lend confidence to wagering inclusion, let alone win consideration. Underlay at 10-1.
10.) SUN KING (Nick Zito/Rafael Bejarano) 15-1: Prado did struggling Zito colt no favors when trying dead Downs rail around both turns Derby Day, but can't use that as sole excuse for third straight disappointment. Nick not giving up (even if Prado is), so maybe you shouldn't either. Problem remains that son of Charismatic has still never been better than third in a Gr. I, and does not seem fast enough to have a say here either despite addition of gifted young pilot.
11.) HIGH LIMIT (Bobby Frankel/Edgar Prado) 12-1: LA Derby winner is an intriguing entrant here on several fronts. Frankel goes to the blinkers and calls on Edgar (Peace Rules) after last place Derby disaster. Had built-in excuse for NOT running here after Louisville slugging and Prado abandons Zito to ride. Will need to gun early, but that's what the goggles are for, and if able to dispose of Going Wild promptly, could relax on the backstretch and stay awhile. For saver tix?
12.) AFLEET ALEX (Tim Ritchey/Jeremy Rose) 5-2: Our Derby 3rd choice did about what we expected with honest effort complicated by traffic problems. Can't complain about Rose when at least 2 Hall of Famers had worse tries... Drawing the 12 hole here is not the same as drawing the 12 hole in the Derby, as wide first turn can be a death knell this oval. It's not "tight turns" that are the problem, it's flat, poorly banked hairpins which cost those spun adrift momentum. Rose can afford to lose some position early in favor of prefered path, but must time move perfectly with favorite and field's most accomplished runner. Tough to embrace at low mutuel and with potential for off effort two weeks after grueling voyage.
13.) GIACOMO (John Shirreffs/Mike Smith) 6-1: Derby winner was our #1 value consideration and earns admiration for running exactly the kind of race that regularly scores first Saturday in May in perfect scenario. Those :24 quarters are like gold Derby and Belmont Day, but frequently come up brass at Pimlico. Derby bombs (20-1 and over) are 7/3-0-3 in Preakness, but three of those that failed in Maryland did so at the hands of Bimelech (Gallahadion), Native Dancer (Dark Star) and Damascus (Proud Clarion). With all due respect to Saturday's field, there are no Bimelech's, Damascus' or Native Dancer's present. The three Derby bomb-Preakness winners (Bold Venture, Charismatic and War Emblem) beat exactly the kinds of fields in the Derby that Giacomo beat, and that means he can push the mark to 8/4-0-3.
Holy Bull grey got no favors from the pill box, but before panicking recall that Smitty piloted Proud Citizen to a Preakness third from the 12 hole three years ago, and Prairie Bayou to a win from well back 10 years earlier. Shirreffs charge seems to have regrouped handsomely from Churchill visit, and may be next in a series of Derby winners that Chesa-"peak". Confident Smith can use Old Hilltop front stretch to find comfort zone before launching attack at the 5/8th's pole. If able to avoid bounce off new top, expect another honest effort from 100% "real" colt.
14.) GOING WILD (D. Wayne Lukas/Robby Albarado) 30-1: Hard to understand Lukas insistence on running quality colt 11th time since September without break of more than 40 days. Also hard to believe Lewis's would stand for abuse of $600,000 son of Golden Missile. Seems sure to come runnin' from the break and is likely good for 6f in about 1:10.0.
SELECTIONS: No need to chase waterfalls here... Stick with what worked at Churchill, and add the ones that ran good, ut obscured, Derbies. We believe Afleet Alex is a bet-against at low odds however. If you are afraid to leave him out, a $1 exacta box key saver with the 6 below costs $12.. a tri key with the other 6 is $30.
1.) Closing Argument
2.) Greeley's Galaxy
3.) Giacomo
4.) High Fly
Exotic considerations in order of preference for value:
a.) Scrappy T
b.) High Limit
By Steve Byk
Leave for Baltimore in the next hour to join Lansdon Robbins for his try at the PIM Special with Offlee Wild... Enjoy the great two days in Bal'more!! http://www.derbytrail.com
Though debate continues to rage on the merits of the Kentucky Derby winner and runner-up, with less than 48 hours until Saturday's 130th Preakness Stakes, we see no reason to seek a major upheaval in the classic's outcome. For years the result of the Preakness has closely mirrored that of the Derby, and with 10 rose runners returning for a try at the black-eyed susies, they should remain the focus of selections.
In fact, with 10 of Saturday's full field having run at Churchill a fortnight ago, the scenario of this second jewel in the Triple Crown appears very similar to Derby 131. There is still a "rabbit" (Going Wild), a hatful of early pace-pressers (High Limit, High Fly, Galloping Grocer), a quality group of tactical speeds (Wilko, Scrappy T, Giacomo, Closing Argument, Greeley's Galaxy), a varied group of mid-pack stalkers (Sun King, Afleet Alex, Hal's Image) and a pair a closers (Noble Causeway, Malibu Moonshine).
The 9.5f Preakness is traditionally run with an initial 6f of about 1:11.0, with a winning time of 1:55.0-1:56.0 typical. Though the Pimlico oval has historically been kind to front end inside speed, the Woodlawn Vase has been garnered most often by runners pressing the pace (2-3 lengths off) or utilizing early field-splitting tactics (5-7 lengths).
We leave for Pimlico early Friday morning, and choose here to keep the Preakness analysis straightforward and simple. Overthinking this middle leg of racing's premier trio of events has rarely been fruitful.
THE 130th PREAKNESS STAKES, Gr. I, $1,000,000, 9.5f, PIM 12th, All carry 126
1.) MALIBU MOONSHINE (King Leatherbury/Steve Hamilton) 20-1: Maryland training legend and solid local rider
click at high rate, and credible FL-bred has won 4 of last 5, all ungraded stakes. But chestnut that wears Marriott family silks has scored in dawdling fashion in events timed with hourglasses. Bred for trip, saves ground, but needs big speed boost to have anything to say about this affair.
2.) HIGH FLY (Nick Zito/Jerry Bailey) 9-2: Our top Derby selection ran well enough to win the Met Mile, but backed up abruptly after chasing insane pace and moving to worst part of Downs strip for Derby's late stages. Has suffered both career losses when launching from wide berth, so move inside should help. But Bailey needs to ensure that Zito-Live Oak colt doesn't get sucked into speed vortex that looms after clubhouse turn. Running "his" race should put him in the mix, but fear every step past 9f. If he's going to win a classic, this would be the one.
3.) NOBLE CAUSEWAY (Nick Zito/Gary Stevens) 10-1: Derby "wiseguy" checked early, checked often in nightmare trip two weeks ago at 12-1. Has in fact run only one "fast" race, the FL Derby second to High Fly. Was Derby a reaction to that new top, or did he need the one in Louisville after the 35 day hiatus? Quick turnaround a solid play for Zito, but this Giant's Causeway red still looks to us like the kind that will do his best work later in the campaign.
4.) GREELEY'S GALAXY (Warren Stute/David Flores) 15-1: Speaking of "wiseguy" horses, Stute-Hughes IL Derby winner wheels back with much to like. One of few here with fig in tow that is in ballpark of typical winning Preakness number (112 Beyer, negative sheet fig), and trainer won this 20 years ago with brother Mel (Snow Chief). Sustained style should play well with good target up front and price invites inclusion. (Note performance of Pollard's Vision on this oval Friday in the Special, as he and this one ran similar races on identical Hawthorne variant surface in April.)
5.) SCRAPPY T (Robert Bailes/Ramon Dominguez) 20-1: Withers-winning gelding has been NY-based version of Closing Argument with nothing but in-the-money finishes in efforts that continually leave fans cheering. Pacey pony has been slightly better on off tracks than dry (3/2-1-0 vs.. 6/1-3-2 ), but that may quibbling. Is ratable according to Bailes, gets PIM-iliar Ramon, should be competitive with pair up, formidable with new top. Using.
6.) HAL'S IMAGE (Barry Rose/Jose Santos) 50-1: Yes, we remember Hal Rose... Yes, we remember Hal's Hope... No, we're not obligated to like this year's Rose family Calder homebred. Likely part of the pace picture off :59.4 bullet, but difficult to see glory for 2 for 16 colt that was 14 lengths behind Sun King in February and picks up 11 pounds from his recent ungraded stakes score. Has improved steadily, but needs big jump to cash a MJC check today.
7.) CLOSING ARGUMENT (Kiaran McLaughlin/Cornelio Velasquez) 5-1: Our #4 Derby tab made us look good and lined pockets nearly annexing roses at 71-1 with remarkable effort 3rd off the bench. Was lone survivor of pace chase two weeks ago, and seems none the worse for wear coming into this. Will use tactical speed, advantageous post to split field early and move when ready. May be impossible to deny in lane this week.
8.) GALLOPING GROCER (Dominick Schettino/Joe Bravo) 30-1: Cross out performance in Bellamy's Wood romp, and this A.P. Jet geldings' record doesn't look as dreadful as people want to make it. Problem seems to have been over the top Remsen effort at two that launched him and Rockport Harbor into sophomore slumps. Showed distinct signs of life in troubled start NY-bred stake four weeks ago, but still would need big new top to hit board here. Pace scenario doesn't suit either, but think he'll run on further than expected.
9.) WILKO (Craig Dollase/Corey Nakatani) 10-1: BC Juvy winner never disgraces himself, but may also still be suffering from explosive juvenile top from which he has yet to progress. Runs consistently, but has yet to reach fig that would lend confidence to wagering inclusion, let alone win consideration. Underlay at 10-1.
10.) SUN KING (Nick Zito/Rafael Bejarano) 15-1: Prado did struggling Zito colt no favors when trying dead Downs rail around both turns Derby Day, but can't use that as sole excuse for third straight disappointment. Nick not giving up (even if Prado is), so maybe you shouldn't either. Problem remains that son of Charismatic has still never been better than third in a Gr. I, and does not seem fast enough to have a say here either despite addition of gifted young pilot.
11.) HIGH LIMIT (Bobby Frankel/Edgar Prado) 12-1: LA Derby winner is an intriguing entrant here on several fronts. Frankel goes to the blinkers and calls on Edgar (Peace Rules) after last place Derby disaster. Had built-in excuse for NOT running here after Louisville slugging and Prado abandons Zito to ride. Will need to gun early, but that's what the goggles are for, and if able to dispose of Going Wild promptly, could relax on the backstretch and stay awhile. For saver tix?
12.) AFLEET ALEX (Tim Ritchey/Jeremy Rose) 5-2: Our Derby 3rd choice did about what we expected with honest effort complicated by traffic problems. Can't complain about Rose when at least 2 Hall of Famers had worse tries... Drawing the 12 hole here is not the same as drawing the 12 hole in the Derby, as wide first turn can be a death knell this oval. It's not "tight turns" that are the problem, it's flat, poorly banked hairpins which cost those spun adrift momentum. Rose can afford to lose some position early in favor of prefered path, but must time move perfectly with favorite and field's most accomplished runner. Tough to embrace at low mutuel and with potential for off effort two weeks after grueling voyage.
13.) GIACOMO (John Shirreffs/Mike Smith) 6-1: Derby winner was our #1 value consideration and earns admiration for running exactly the kind of race that regularly scores first Saturday in May in perfect scenario. Those :24 quarters are like gold Derby and Belmont Day, but frequently come up brass at Pimlico. Derby bombs (20-1 and over) are 7/3-0-3 in Preakness, but three of those that failed in Maryland did so at the hands of Bimelech (Gallahadion), Native Dancer (Dark Star) and Damascus (Proud Clarion). With all due respect to Saturday's field, there are no Bimelech's, Damascus' or Native Dancer's present. The three Derby bomb-Preakness winners (Bold Venture, Charismatic and War Emblem) beat exactly the kinds of fields in the Derby that Giacomo beat, and that means he can push the mark to 8/4-0-3.
Holy Bull grey got no favors from the pill box, but before panicking recall that Smitty piloted Proud Citizen to a Preakness third from the 12 hole three years ago, and Prairie Bayou to a win from well back 10 years earlier. Shirreffs charge seems to have regrouped handsomely from Churchill visit, and may be next in a series of Derby winners that Chesa-"peak". Confident Smith can use Old Hilltop front stretch to find comfort zone before launching attack at the 5/8th's pole. If able to avoid bounce off new top, expect another honest effort from 100% "real" colt.
14.) GOING WILD (D. Wayne Lukas/Robby Albarado) 30-1: Hard to understand Lukas insistence on running quality colt 11th time since September without break of more than 40 days. Also hard to believe Lewis's would stand for abuse of $600,000 son of Golden Missile. Seems sure to come runnin' from the break and is likely good for 6f in about 1:10.0.
SELECTIONS: No need to chase waterfalls here... Stick with what worked at Churchill, and add the ones that ran good, ut obscured, Derbies. We believe Afleet Alex is a bet-against at low odds however. If you are afraid to leave him out, a $1 exacta box key saver with the 6 below costs $12.. a tri key with the other 6 is $30.
1.) Closing Argument
2.) Greeley's Galaxy
3.) Giacomo
4.) High Fly
Exotic considerations in order of preference for value:
a.) Scrappy T
b.) High Limit