TVG announcer dumb statement???

[andicap]

I've always tried to give the TVG announcers some slack. They're on the air for several hours and are bound to say things that are kind of silly once in a while. We all would. Bottom line, I'm happy I can watch horse racing on TV while I work at home.

BUT, -- today I heard something from a talking head that at least to me (some of you might disagree of course) sounded downright dumb. And the supposed "expert" on the set did not contradict him.

It was in the middle of the afternoon ET when they were wrapping up the weekend stakes results and talked about Lost in the Fog's track record racing against two contenders. The host said Lost's time was even more amazing considering "he wasn't pushed" by any rivals. This is an old canard that you hear from time to time, a statement that seems like it should be true, but rarely is.

I think it's pretty clear that many horses will run faster when they are relaxed on the lead by themselves. That's why you see horses like Bellamy Road run up silly Beyers when they win by 10 lengths. For example, Secretariet's ridiculous 2:24 Belmont.

Admittedly, maybe some horses do run better when they're in a tough duel -- matter of personal preferene.

But to say outright that Lost in the Fog would have run faster had he been stressed and pushed by the other horses strikes me as one of the most uninformed statements I've heard come from a TV announcer -- or anyone who is supposed to have some expertise in quite some time.

[BillW]

TVG and HRTV, both will gladly sacrifice intelligence to tout a West Coast horse - they are the ultimate homers.

[Light]

That's just the tip of the iceberg of their flubs.I sometimes find myself calling them idiots when they make their pk4 tickets and leave out an obvious horse because of their beliefs in certain horseracing myths which they proffess on the air. Then when the horse they leave out wins,they sing a different tune.(Huh?)Then repeat the whole process over.

But they also have their shining moments. The announcer that made that statement was Mr B. A couple of weeks ago he gave out a Pk6 at Hol costing $80 that returned $10,000. And another announcer gave out Giacomo.Allthough that's no excuse for misinformation,nobody's perfect.So despite their shortcomings I enjoy whatever grain of insight and entertainment I can get from those guys.

[Light]

Or how about yesterday's last @ Hol on TVG. They interview Leonard Duncan with 2 uncoupled horses in the race. He says he likes his 5-1 shot but says the other uncoupled horse he trains @ 17-1 has "regressed" in her training and will do better going longer. Wins by 3.Imagine if you liked the horse and got off her cause the trainer said that.I'm sure some did. More misinformation. And this time it wasn't a tvg announcer to blame but still on their airwaves.Misinformation is everywhere and in every facet of life,not just horseracing.

[garyoz]

Or how about yesterday's last @ Hol on TVG. They interview Leonard Duncan with 2 uncoupled horses in the race. He says he likes his 5-1 shot but says the other uncoupled horse he trains @ 17-1 has "regressed" in her training and will do better going longer. Wins by 3.

Not uncommon. Steve Crist wrote recently (during the Mullins controversy) about a situation at NYRA when he was working there that I remember well. Jan Rushton had just started doing the In-House show that was also carried on the OTB Network on Cable. She really used to dig for information when she first started. She said that a trainer (now deceased--I don't want to speak ill of the dead) told her that both horses in a two horse entry needed at least a race. Odds jumped up on the entry (who wouldn't believe Jan Rushton--this wasn't her fault). One of the horses wins in laugher. Joke was on the player--think about it--when aren't trainers beaming rays of phoney optimism. They have to atleast talk a good game for their owners--unless they are trying to cash a ticket.

Re: TVG and HRTV, personally I take the announcers with a grain of salt. I appreciate both services--beats going to the track.

[keilan]

Or how about yesterday's last @ Hol on TVG. They interview Leonard Duncan with 2 uncoupled horses in the race. He says he likes his 5-1 shot but says the other uncoupled horse he trains @ 17-1 has "regressed" in her training and will do better going longer. Wins by 3.Imagine if you liked the horse and got off her cause the trainer said that.I'm sure some did. More misinformation. And this time it wasn't a tvg announcer to blame but still on their airwaves.Misinformation is everywhere and in every facet of life,not just horseracing.


Opinions are free around here sooooooooo; if you’re gonna be a serious player quit listening and reading everything written and broadcasted about any upcoming race. You can take the advice or you can learn it yourself the hard way – it’ll cost you a big ticket someday.

[banacek]

I think it's pretty clear that many horses will run faster when they are relaxed on the lead by themselves. That's why you see horses like Bellamy Road run up silly Beyers when they win by 10 lengths. For example, Secretariet's ridiculous 2:24 Belmont.

I completely agree with what you are saying, but I respectfully disagree about Secretariat's Belmont. I do not think it is an example of what you are saying. 46 1/5 at the 1/2 then 109 4/5 at 6f with Sham pressing him (if I remember right he was a head behind then). To keep going like he did is what makes it all the more amazing to me.

[GeTydOn]

If a trainer can believe his horse is gonna roll and be wrong about it, why couldn't a trainer believe his horse needs time, added distance, etc. and be wrong about that????

[Light]

Cause a trainer's job is to know his own horses.

[GeTydOn]

Oh please. Is that a serious statement? This is HORSERACING.
:rolleyes:

And besides: Yes it's a trainer's job to know his own horse. But he's not gonna know the competition like his own.

[garyoz]

Unless they are dealing with a claiming race where they don't want to lose a horse, trainers need to be upbeat. When is the last time you heard a trainer say my horse shouldn't be running in this race, he's overmatched. They have to let their owners think they are doing the best job possible and that they are capturing all the potential for their charge. Sure, a trainer can be wrong but what we are focusing on is what he/she tells the public.

If they want to cash a bet they aren't going to give away their payoff. Think of it like an equity analyst out with a buy recommendation while his/her firm is selling into that recommendation. Except nowadays that is supposed to be illegal, where a trainer can say whatever,

[BillW]

Unless they are dealing with a claiming race where they don't want to lose a horse, trainers need to be upbeat. When is the last time you heard a trainer say my horse shouldn't be running in this race, he's overmatched. They have to let their owners think they are doing the best job possible and that they are capturing all the potential for their charge. Sure, a trainer can be wrong but what we are focusing on is what he/she tells the public.


A trainer may be running under pressure from the owner too and have to play that political game. Yielding to an owner to run a horse then getting on national TV and saying the horse is not ready to run may impact his employment status.

[Suff]

Re: TVG and HRTV, personally I take the announcers with a grain of salt. I appreciate both services--beats going to the track.

Agreed. Take the good, endure the not so good. I have two points..

1.

I despise.. The West Coast Bias on TVG.

2.

Trainer intent and all that? They have no more a clue than you or I. Many Less. Although I find it enjoyable to see the Posts from "figures" guys that rarely post on non-figure topics. "Hoisted on thier own pretard" are the words I'm looking for to describe the angst they're enduring from a Derby that does'nt add up. For that matter , "any result" that is in contrast to the way they have scientifically analyzed a race gets thier brains in a tangle.

[Valuist]

Absolutely. Watching it, one would think the sun sets and falls with Hollywood Park. There is really no reason to have remotes. All they do is take up time that could be devoted to showing more races.

I'll cut the announcers some slack because they're on the air for numerous hours and I think most of the problems at TVG are because management there.

BTW, if they're going to give picks and wagers out every day, how come they aren't keeping running totals?

[cj]

suff,

Haven't seen TVG in a while, but I agree about the West Coast bias, it is really crazy at night.

As for the Derby and "figures" guys, I don't see the problem. Insane paces happen every day, and slower horses clunk up and win some races. The problem is with the non-figure guys not like hearing the opinion of why Giacomo won. I think they run the Derby 100 times, Giacomo might win 7 or 8 times. Big deal, he won, it happens. Why is it so bad to say it?

Trainer intent, I couldn't agree more. These guys are not handicappers for the most part. I don't care what they think, even about their own horse.

[Valuist]

I actually think one would be wise to do the exact opposite of whatever a trainer says. If he/she has two horses, uncoupled, and they talk up one, I'd downgrade that one and upgrade the other. We've seen this higher priced/uncoupled entry angle come in even in the KY Derby (Thunder Gulch, Real Quiet come to mind). Even when Silent Witness went down last weekend, guess who beat him? It was a higher odds stablemate.

I definitely would be hesitant to think Ashado is a lock today.

[Valuist]

I stand corrected. With ALL the other early speed scratching out and a sloppy track, Ashado does indeed look like a lock.

[Light]

GeTydOn said:Yes it's a trainer's job to know his own horse. But he's not gonna know the competition like his own.

My point about a trainer knowing his own horses is not in regard to when he loses.Many reasons/excuses for that. But when a trainer says his horse is not going to win and is "regressing"(specifically in this case)and the horse wins,I'm sorry,but that trainer either doesn't know his horse or he's intentionally lying.

[munse39]

Agree with you about easy lead types running faster when they get it.... HOWEVER!, (sorry to shout)Do NOT include Secretariat as an example of that. He was a superior animal and we probably wont see the likes of him again in our lifetimes.

[PurplePower]

BUT, -- today I heard something from a talking head that at least to me (some of you might disagree of course) sounded downright dumb. ......... The host said Lost's time was even more amazing considering "he wasn't pushed" by any rivals. This is an old canard that you hear from time to time, a statement that seems like it should be true, but rarely is......But to say outright that Lost in the Fog would have run faster had he been stressed and pushed by the other horses strikes me as one of the most uninformed statements I've heard come from a TV announcer -- or anyone who is supposed to have some expertise in quite some time.
When the pressure is early in the race, the final time is most often slower (Derby pie, anyone?). However, a horse that does get to run loose on lead that has something left in tank nearing wire AND hears hoofbeats of a closer getting louder might reach down and get another tick or two off the clock. I see this a lot in Quarter Horse trials. One 2-year old wins its trial in 17.75 by a nose in a three-horse photo. Another wins its trial in 17.95 by 2.5 lengths. Both make the finals and the 17.95 wins in a time of 17.59with the other trial winner finishing behind the two he nosed out and they all run 17:62 or so. (No, track superintendent doesn't "pep up" the track for the finals either). That is not TB racing however, but I do see many instances where a horse does only what it takes to win. I think a horse like Lost in the Fog or Secretariat and maybe even Bellamy Road, have the talent AND desire to run record times.

To me that was not as dumb a statement as "Mr. B" made when he ridiculed the jockeys at Turfway Park for taking off because of dangerous wind conditions. He said he had "never heard of such a thing" and was obviously disparaging the riders. Then the next day Aqueduct cancelled for the same reason and he was stammering and stuttering. Sad that he seems to be a good handicapper while at the same time doesn't seem to understand what actually goes on in racing.

[andicap]

I completely agree with what you are saying, but I respectfully disagree about Secretariat's Belmont. I do not think it is an example of what you are saying. 46 1/5 at the 1/2 then 109 4/5 at 6f with Sham pressing him (if I remember right he was a head behind then). To keep going like he did is what makes it all the more amazing to me.

Have to push back a bit here. Remember Secretariet kept running at an amazing speed even after he put Sham away. He was completely on his own around the far down and down the length of the stretch and he still ran some sizzling quarters.

I would say, yes, if a horse isn't pushed early he'll run slow fractions and the time will reflect it. But that's not what the TVG guy was saying. He was saying that Lost would have run faster if another horse had been pushing him around the turn and in the upper stretch at least. That's whats dead wrong.

PP, I'm not saying a horse CAN'T run very fast with someone else pushing him. I just hate the myth that a horse WILL run faster when he's neck and neck with another horse rather than relaxing by himself.

To me, it's comparable to an NBA player who shoots buckets in the gym or has Ben Wallace guarding him. When will his shooting % be higher?
Relaxation does amazing things to athletes -- you're oxygen is not depleted as much and you have more left in the tank when there is less stress.
I believe horses feel stress as much as humans do and it has to hurt their performances at times. Of course there are the Michael Jordans of the equine world who actually improve the more stress they are under. But that's highly unusual.
I guess it's possible Lost in the Fog would have run as well as better with another horse on tail, but certainly to suggest that his performance looked better than it was BECAUSE he was able to relax is sheer idiocy.

[PurplePower]

.....PP, I'm not saying a horse CAN'T run very fast with someone else pushing him. I just hate the myth that a horse WILL run faster when he's neck and neck with another horse rather than relaxing by himself.

.....I guess it's possible Lost in the Fog would have run as well as better with another horse on tail, but certainly to suggest that his performance looked better than it was BECAUSE he was able to relax is sheer idiocy.
We agree in principle. All we have to do is point to the Derby. Based on the "he would have run faster if he would have been pressured" concept, our recent Derby should have been won by Bellamy Road in 1:55 and change!! :D

[Suff]

suff,

As for the Derby and "figures" guys, I don't see the problem. .

What's good for the game is heavily weighted with...If the horse's don't run to thier figures, then something is wrong with the game.

Some post-derby posts said as much. Between MRLS & torrid pace, people are reaching for anything to explain why the horse won...not counting the boat full of excuse's from Sun King to High Limit...

Derby's a spectacle more than a Horse race was we know it. 20 horse fields of all-stars coupled with 50 Million dollar pools will deliver these situations...It would happen more often if the situation existed more often. Simple as that for me.

Guy's that bet figures, need a steady stream of 2nd, & 3rd fav winners. If the game don't run to that reality, they'd be broke quick. Therefore the game sucks and needs to be changed.

When you get schooled properly at a race track, one of the first things you learn is how to win, and how to lose. Win or Lose, act right.

Big race tommorrow. Best of Luck to everyone. Enjoy the race.

[Suff]

ON the TVG subject. I brought this thread up with a friend of mine that watch's TVG constantly.

He said something to me that I had to agree with.

These guys are talking on the go, it's live, and they have to fill alot of dead air between race calls. It's easy to blurt out stupid stuff when your forced to find words.

[Tom]

Yeah, maybe it's time for TVG to do something about that...like, uh, SHOW MORE RACES! Dead airtime means they are not doing a good job of showing live action. Some days, the might as well be a radio station.

[BillW]

The last time there was a thread here about TVG I sent them a link and invited them to sign-up and participate. Sadly I heard nothing in return. They may be lurking but aren't willing to discuss the criticisms. (or the e-mail possibly just got lost in the deluge they must get everyday :rolleyes: ) Assuming they received it, it doesn't reflect very well on them, but they still need to hear the criticisms. Posting them only here will probably do no good. Anyone that has criticism send it on to them where it has a chance to do some good.

Bill

[garyoz]

Guy's that bet figures, need a steady stream of 2nd, & 3rd fav winners. If the game don't run to that reality, they'd be broke quick. Therefore the game sucks and needs to be changed.

With all due respect, doesn't seem like you understand how to use the Sheets (Ragozin, Thorograph, Equiform), they provide plenty of prices if you use them to predict form cycle instead of betting the best last figure, best of last 3, or 2 of 3. This is particularly true when you are dealing with new 3 year olds who are showing development. They are moving forward, probably not running back to an earlier number.

Last 3 winners of the NTRA Handicapping contests all said they used a sheet type product. You don't win that contest by betting 2nd & 3rd fav winners.

Even if you are using the a Sheets type product, you are not always necessarily betting a number, often you are taking a stand against a horse who will bounce

[Suff]

With all due respect, doesn't seem like you understand how to use the Sheets (Ragozin, Thorograph, Equiform), they provide plenty of prices if you use them to predict form cycle instead of betting the best last figure, best of last 3, or 2 of 3.

Those tools, & others have ways to assist you in identifying many types of Horses I agree. That's not what I meant. I'll rephrase it. Before I do though, I'l say, even with ability to identify angles, the majority of players I have watched , frequenty use "opportunity" horses with favorites.

What I'm trying to say is that when a race does'nt come back to the figures? It's a loss. Throw the ticket in the barrel and play the next race.

Giacamo wins and we see discussion of changing the way the Derby's filled.
The win is blamed or credited on Mare reprductive loss syndrome, Trainer intent (or lack of), Dosage manipulation (post race) etc etc...

If I bet a 8K claimer at Suffolk and the Horse gets boxed in, clips heels, swings out wide and does'nt get up for me... It's a loss. I don't run around the race track blaming the Jockey, the other horses, the trainers, The game, what I had for breafast, or MRLS. Its bad track etiquette to groan (x's ten)

Of course we're all human and a grunt is acceptable. But the people that miss'd this race are going right to the core of the game to explain why it ran the way it ran. The systems faulty, thats why they lost.

I stand by my unscientific opinion that most figures players require the game to run systematically, by the numbers. Anomalys are'nt just bad for thier betting business, it rocks thier scientfic mind (s).

I appreciatte your view, and I admire players that sniff out opportunity. I use paper and pen, and its one of the most enjoyable things I do.

[Suff]

For What's worth... I gave Sort it Out a lighting bolt's chance. I said as much in more than a few threads. In my twisted mind I had it right because I saw a break down, break down , Minnesota shakedown in the stretch.

There's a lot of NY Players here that have seen him in person, like I have. The Colt is tough in the lane. He fit the giacoma profile (post race), in that he had 11 route starts going in. Giacamo had 6 or 7 and it they were credited (post race) on him ready for the xtra 1/8th on May 7.

So I threw out the breeding, some numbers, picked a style. And Sort it Out comes at everything in front of him. He did'nt beat much, or win much but he's a bear on the race track. When you see them race, from paddock to the finish line you see things you miss on Simo. Sort-it-out is horse that can kick around the National Graded races and will be a factor in any race that takes talent + heart. He's a runner. Also, if I needed to hang a number just it make it sound "scientific", He came in to the Derby off a 93, Giacamo off a 95.

I was alive to him the Pick3, off Trusty Cat 23.00 (beat Madcap escapade escpade at 1-2, GG America $37.00 I had him $5.00 exacta's Box's over 4 others and missed, but had WP, and hit the $266.00 pik3 1.5 times.
I was alive in the pick 3 to five horses 30.00 ticket, 8,9/1.9.10/1 (sort it out), 3,7,12,16. Five horses. $39,000 will pay to sort it out. Lowest was Afellet Alex at $3500.00, Bellamy Road was $4400.00, 8900 to Sun King.

I had lighting in the bottle, I just could'nt get the cap on. I grunted and then came back with this the Following Morning.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=19886


Sunday May 8th

You get knocked down, you get up.



I have the 4 horse as a patched up phony fav, who can't run another top race. You can go broke quick betting against Scott Lake/Luzzi.

I like the 2 for 1 entry...1 & 1A. and I think


Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
1 Golden Trieste Pablo Fragoso10.60 4.60 4.80
4 Sailwind Michael J. Luzzi 3.90 3.80
1A Kid Ziggy Raul I. Rojas
Derby? what Derby? That-a-Boy. Right Back! Quiters never win, and winners never quit!!

[joeyspicks]

I agree with you C.J. It does happen every day.....its just hard to "figure" (when you are making your assumptions concerning the race) that

1. so many "top notch" jocks would chase the "rabbit".

I mean it was there stated INTENTION to run a unrealstic pace! Did these jocks really think he was gonna steal the race?

Not in my wildest scenerio did I figure a pace like that!

2. Even with a hot pace I still didnt think of Giacamo to be the one to pick up the pieces. THATS horse racing:bang:

[Fastracehorse]

Figures can be a powerful factor.

However,

Figure players run into some of these problems:

1). Because of problems innate to the thoroughbred - the horse doesn't run back to his best.

2). Most races are competitive - the high-figure horse's chance is fragile.

3). Not every horse intennnnnnnnnnnnds to run like his last.

4). Figures need to be con-joined with other potent angles to be effective.



Side Note:

If you like figures, and you should, knowing their weaknesses will improve your game.

fffastt

[JustRalph]

The last time there was a thread here about TVG I sent them a link and invited them to sign-up and participate. Sadly I heard nothing in return. They may be lurking but aren't willing to discuss the criticisms. (or the e-mail possibly just got lost in the deluge they must get everyday :rolleyes: ) Assuming they received it, it doesn't reflect very well on them, but they still need to hear the criticisms. Posting them only here will probably do no good. Anyone that has criticism send it on to them where it has a chance to do some good.
Bill

Bill, I have communicated with a few of the TVG types including some who are not on air but work behind the scenes in important positions. They are very nice guys and gals. They do visit some boards every now and then. Lurking. They tell me that the minute they login and try to participate, they get deluged with mail and any threads they get caught up in turn into nightmares for them. From what they tell me some previous TVG on air persons had some trouble because some of the threads they participated in "got them in trouble" and that is all I know. I have also been told that they just don't have the time to participate. They cram a bunch of on air time into a 5 day week. Sometimes in the summer they pull two shifts at two different places (Santa Monica in studio, then maybe Hollywood etc) in the same day. Greg Wolf and Ken Rudolph have probably spent more time on the 405 than anybody in SoCal. I don't envy them...........and remember that they are also going to auditions and stuff in SoCal. I am told that many of them are wannebe actors etc. In fact Rudolph has been in a few movies.