The two words you don't know how to define in horseracing

[fishorsechess]

"Overlay" If you can PRECISELY define the true odds of a horse in a
race you would be a millionaire. Any fool can say the way
to win at the track is to bet overlays. But no one can truely
define it.
"Class" In Tom Ainsle books he states its hard to define but easy
to recognize. Since it is such a nebulous variable it also
falls in to the category of the overlay.

[Overlay]

I agree with you that total precision in predicting race results would indeed be impossible. But you don't have to be perfect; you only have to be better than the track crowd often enough on a selective basis (where you're the one doing the selecting, and gearing it to situations where the percentages are in your favor). And sufficient performance data is available from racing's long history to allow projections that are accurate enough to make that an attainable goal.

[DJofSD]

By and large, I agree.

It seems to me a vast majority of the time discussions of both overlay and class are couched in the framework of examples but without any unequivocal definition being given. It's all a bunch of hand waiving -- wink, wink, nod, nod, 'like this race race I won last year when according to my view...."

But then sometimes selecting a winner and betting it comes down to gut feelings -- hunches.

And, like hunches and quality, I know 'em when I see 'em.

Don't get me wrong, cashing tickets is it's own reward. And however you get from point A to point B is irrelevant. Or do you give back your winnings because your computer program didn't rank the winner on top?

So if I can't define by succint mathematical expressions what is an overlay or what is class does that mean they don't exist or can not be used?

DJofSDD

[Steve 'StatMan']

"Overlay" If you can PRECISELY define the true odds of a horse in a
race you would be a millionaire. Any fool can say the way
to win at the track is to bet overlays. But no one can truely
define it.


Pittsburg Phil made over $1 Million betting on the horses, in the Late 19th to Early 20th Century. Precision my be impossilbe, but for Pittsburg Phil, he sure was close enough!

[hurrikane]

nonsense

[DJofSD]

Awe, come on now. You can play the game better than that!

Who has uttered the nonsense? And why do disagree?

DJofSD

[kenwoodallpromos]

I will restate what I said in my earlier posts- overlay is a subjective judgment simply when the toteboard odds or estimated payoff is greater than what your judgment tells you the break even payoff should be.
If a horse won 5 of its last 10 races at the current level, anything better than 1-1 odds is an overlay. Anything under 1-1 is an underlay.
The closer you look at the pp's you may find things that cause you to adjust the "fair odds". IMO, that is as accurate of a definition possible Because it requires judgmeny.
After struggling for my own definition of class, I decided my definition would simply be stamina. Speed + class = early speed + stamina.

[maxwell]

An overlay is as personal as the handicapping factors that you employ. If you can win over time, the odds will gravitate to a range; say ... 5-1 -> 12-1 or whatever.

The tougher your stance on speed figs. class, etc, the lower the odds will be ... most of the time.

[KingChas]

fishorsechess; "Overlay" If you can PRECISELY define the true odds of a horse in a
race you would be a millionaire. Any fool can say the way
to win at the track is to bet overlays. But no one can truely
define it.


An "Overlay" is in the mind of the beholder of the winning ticket!

[hurrikane]

uttered by

fishhead

why?

my opinion of his opinion


not fishing today.

[rrbauer]

I will restate what I said in my earlier posts- overlay is a subjective judgment simply when the toteboard odds or estimated payoff is greater than what your judgment tells you the break even payoff should be.
If a horse won 5 of its last 10 races at the current level, anything better than 1-1 odds is an overlay. Anything under 1-1 is an underlay.
The closer you look at the pp's you may find things that cause you to adjust the "fair odds". IMO, that is as accurate of a definition possible Because it requires judgmeny.
After struggling for my own definition of class, I decided my definition would simply be stamina. Speed + class = early speed + stamina.

Comment:
"Overlay" and "underlay" are a concept. They are not exact. They mean that a probability of occurrence is not being correctly recognized by the betting public. From those terms comes the concept of "value". Value is the inherent measure (positive or negative) of the difference between the perceived probability of occurrence by the betting public (or the betting line) and the actual probability of occurrence. It is very rare (IMHO) that in horse racing "actual" probabilities are available for a pre-race analysis. Rather, what is available are probability "estimates". It is the latter which are the foundation for making a betting line to use as a benchmark to measure against the actual betting (or betting line).

Speed handicappers (I'm standing at "attention") disregard the concept of class. Simply stated, fast horses beat slow horses. Those that think that a 3YO in May gives a crap that those are all 4+ eating his dirt; or, that a 12.5 claimer gives a crap that those are all "allowance" horses sucking wind behind him can report to the "class" menagerie.

And, while we're at it: What beats fast horses?






FASTER horses!

:)

[kenwoodallpromos]

Slow tracks or slow horses with more reserve energy for the reserve energy (stamina). At least that is what the speed guru said in so many words, and what beat Proud Accolade.

[so.cal.fan]

Pittsburg Phil also believed that "if you can classify horses correctly, you can win all the money you want, starting with a dollar".
Two factors that control horse racing.....class and condition. Many ways to utilize these factors, be it speed, pace or whatever, plus an additional knowledge of condition......whatever method you use...you had better focus on these factors or you will lose in the long run, imho.