Will Beyer's #'s make a comeback ?

[karlskorner]

For the Preakness. Everybody has an opinion

http://www.nypost.com/sports/24081.htm

[46zilzal]

For the Preakness.

hope everyone continues to believe they are GOSPEL

[kenwoodallpromos]

It will not come back for the Preakness, because of the low Derby numbers. Old time capping will rule the day and the few left practicing it will clean up! :jump:

[Overlay]

It's hard to make any guarantees about predicting a single race, but I think the Beyers are still generally useful as a handicapping tool as long as they're viewed as a probability gauge rather than an absolute indicator of performance; when figure patterns or representative averages are considered rather than just the figure from any one particular race; and when the figures are placed in proper perspective alongside other fundamental handicapping factors, and not considered in isolation as a stand-alone measure.

[Kreed]

Excellent.

[LemonSoupKid]

That guy's article is garbage. The race set up perfectly for a plodder like Giacomo to win, which he deserves some credit for --- but who says that just because of this one race that Beyer's are as bad as he says? Many of the best horses failed to fire, and that's what we don't know about horse racing --- trips and day to day feelings of horses make it difficult to predict. Yeah, and by the way, the top Beyer horse also ended up being injured, Mr. Kerrison.

6 of the last 12 derby's isn't "very reliable?" Come on. I'm not all about Andy, I just like telling it how it is, and those numbers are solid indicators. INDICATORS. I would hardly say that a certain gauge is a failure if one horse (bandini) doesn't do well in a 20 horse race --- something that isn't run too often.

Lemon

[LemonSoupKid]

And if Giacomo wins this one, I'll eat all those words. And I'm fully aware that the unexpected Derby winner is generally underestimated in the Preakness.

[JustMissed]

That's a bit odd that the article critized Beyer for giving Bellamy Road such a high figure and did not mention that most public handicapping services did the very same thing.

I.e., Bris had BR number one in speed last race, back speed, current class & prime power.

Even our very own CJ gave him the highest performance rating at 114 which was 21 points higher than Giacomo. Heck, maybe the writer should also blame CJ for all those millions of dollars lost. What a joke.

Looks like most of these post KD writers couldn't find their ass with both hands, much less analysis a horse race.

JM

[Valuist]

The title of this thread was "will the Beyer numbers make a comeback?" I think it should've been titled "will the horses make a comeback."

The problem wasn't the Beyer number. The problem was the horses who made the low number so worthy.

[garyoz]

The Race of the Week (a freebee) is the Preakness over at www.thorograph.com if you want to see some serious figures.

[creatureman]

U guys know that i assume

[Speed Figure]

The Race of the Week (a freebee) is the Preakness over at www.thorograph.com if you want to see some serious figures.
Not to be funny, but what's so serious about them?

[garyoz]

Not to be funny, but what's so serious about them?

They aren't Beyers. ;) Plus the usual, handtimed, trip adjusted, weight adjusted, wind adjusted and just generally more thought put into them. Obviously, IMHO.

[Skanoochies]

I suppose if Giacomo wins again we`ll get "The Race of the Weak!" :D

[headhawg]

They aren't Beyers. ;) Plus the usual, handtimed, trip adjusted, weight adjusted, wind adjusted and just generally more thought put into them. Obviously, IMHO.
But don't include pace. Hmmm.....

[cj]

TG uses some methods to produce variants that I think are a little strange. Tons of pair ups, lots of races broken out from the rest of the card to achieve these pair ups. The Race of the Week is about 0 for the last 8 months, no thanks.

[garyoz]

Right--That's why so many trainers, owners and jockey agents use the Sheets and Thorograph. They are useless and haven't held up over time. But this debate is so 1992, my fault for bringing it up.

[cj]

Noone is saying the figures aren't good. The problem is, they are backed at the windows heavily. Horsemen don't care what price a horse pays.

[andicap]

Right--That's why so many trainers, owners and jockey agents use the Sheets and Thorograph. They are useless and haven't held up over time. But this debate is so 1992, my fault for bringing it up.

Gary, there is a legitimate debate over whether Thorograph is as good as the Raggies. Those two companies argue and snipe about it all them. That's 2005.

In my extremely limited experience I've found the Ragozins numbers more accurate than Jerry Brown's. I've also found the level of analysis by Raggie users about form cycles to be superior than what Thorograph does. I've seen analysis by T-graph (the freebies they give out) to focus on each horse's best racent race rather than the intricacies of "recovery," "forging," and "explosive" that to me are the hallmarks of the Sheets. To me Brown is more of a huckster type than Len Friedman who runs the Sheets now.

In fact I use some of Ragozen's theories with the Cramer speed figures and fine them extremely useful (even though the Raggies say you can't apply their numbers to Beyers, Cramers, etc. -- no, you can't as precisely, but I still find you can uncover recovery, explosive, bounceback horses a lot of the time).

[garyoz]

Gary, there is a legitimate debate over whether Thorograph is as good as the Raggies. Those two companies argue and snipe about it all them.

I'm well aware of the debate and read the Thorograph Board all the time as a lurker. I used Ragozin Sheets when I lived in the City in the 1980's and early 1990's, used to buy them on 52nd and Second. Thorographs are more convenient to get on the Internet. I have a friend who is a die-hard Raggie and won't even look at TG.

Personally, I have been using the Xtra's from Equiform several times a month for a few months now. My only complaint is that they are not trip adjusted. I do like their pace figures and final figures and they are not as widely used as The Sheets or TG. I also may get TG occasionally.

My only purpose for posting was to point out that the TG's were available for free as the ROTW and that IMHO there are much better than Beyers. Personally I can't imagine why anyone would care about a Beyer figure except that they are in such wide use that they provide a good indication of how the public will look at a race. Beyer figures are a great bet against tool. I also don't see how they can be used for form cycle analysis in a reliable manner. I tried Cramer figures, and while I really like HDW, I don't really like the Cramer Speed figures, not enough nuance in them for me.

[cj]

From the article:

In recent years, they had run up an impressive record of spotlighting the Derby winner. Their leading fig horses had won six of the past 12 Derbies, including three at boxcar prices of $35, $43 and $64. But this year, they went haywire.

Wow, how quickly we forget!