Cover

[cj]

I've been doing some thinking lately, always dangerous, but I do it anyway. What effect does cover have in a thoroughbred race? I used to follow harness, and of course, it is huge. It also is big in auto racing, bicycle racing, and even human distance racing.

This is a subject you rarely ever hear about in our sport. Is racing covered up a good thing, especially on windy days?

[Buddha]

cover as in like drafting? I think it could help, but, it also would have to take a horse that doesnt mind dirt/mud kicked in his face, and it probably isnt as big an advantage as in some other sports.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I see a lot of horses behind the leaders to the side because they do not want to be 3 lengths back.
I heard High Limit was covered by Sun King closely in the Derby.

[e_r]

If you have ever cycled, you'd have a good idea as to how much of an advantage cover provides.

In my mind, drafting behind a horse, no matter what the wind conditions, is a major advantage. Especially, it seems, on the the turf, where so many winners suck up on the inside.

[keilan]

Being covered in essence is being pulled along by others without exerting as much energy. An example of this would be no matter how fast a race goes horse “A” always seems to finish a couple lengths behind the winner, very common in harness racing.

Another example is for those of you that often drive long distances in your vehicle at the speed limit+ have you ever noticed how much easier it is to follow behind someone else than be out on the hi-way / interstate by yourself. It’s not so much drafting but it requires a lot less effort/energy mentally.

Horses often running routes on the turf demonstrate this tactic. Good jocks understand these concepts and put their mounts in good running positions.

[peakpros]

Keep in mind in your discussions that being "under cover" means that the horse "under cover" usually has allot of dirt hitting it in the face.

Many horse will stop running once this happens. You see it in replays all the time. A horse is making a nice move, some dirt hits it and they swerve and lose momentum.


( I see Buddha has mention this already)

[GeTydOn]

Sort of along the same lines is the logic behind the creation some years ago of aerodynimic silks to cut down on wind resistence. I think it was in the 80s.

[Achilles]

I remember reading somewhere, maybe on PA, that in the U.K. horses in training are taught to run relaxed behind other horses, and that when the jockey moves the horse from behind cover, the horse then knows that it is time to step on the gas. This applies to turf races of course, and may help to explain the sometimes huge bursts of acceleration that so many Euro turfers produce after relaxing behind cover for most of the race.

[Valuist]

My favorite example of this is when the field is about to turn for home and there's three horses across the track battling for the lead. Then there's a horse or two in behind, supposedly "in traffic" (I can just hear the announcer saying "so and so has nowhere to go"). Its amazing how often these drafting types win, especially when this scenario unfolds on the turf. I think there's two advantages: 1) the drafting horse(s) can see the horses right in front of them, so they instinctively slow down slightly and conserve some energy. 2) They can see the horses in front of them so they know what they have to do and how much energy they have to put forth. The horses fighting for the lead only see each other, and focus on outfinishing them.

[delayjf]

I'm barely over the run up distance thing and now this. I hope you loose as much sleep as I do over stuff like this. In the words of MANGO (Saturday Night Live) WHY WHY WHY WHY WHY :D :D :D

[cj]

What was that Jeff, I was :sleeping:?

I try to think about things like this when I'm at work!

[NoDayJob]

:lol: All tracks will be required to have a pace car equipped with a windshield just in front of the starting gate. That way only a cross wind will effect the race. :lol:

NDJ

[yak merchant]

While I agree it does have an effect, I have dismissed it as a variable that will be offset by ground lost. There is no real way to quantify the amount of cover. Plus, if you watch enough head on replays you'll notice that what looks like cover on the regular feed isn't really cover, if there is less than 2 lengths between the horses (Where drafting would really reap the most benefits), the jock in back will almost always pull his horse to the side slightly and most often will not run directly behind the horse in front of them. Probably for a number of reasons, 1st and foremost so less chance of clipping heels. 2nd to minimize the dirt in the face thing, and finally and probably somewhat subconsciously so that if their buddy in front them spills they aren't the one driving the lawnmower.

[toetoe]

I guess we should just abolish the draft.

[Brian Flewwelling]

:lol: I guess we should just abolish the draft.

does this suggest that at HST, WO, and STP (Canadian tracks) that horses do not run in line as much? ... more draft dodgers? :lol:

[Brian Flewwelling]

Another example is for those of you that often drive long distances in your vehicle at the speed limit+ have you ever noticed how much easier it is to follow behind someone else than be out on the hi-way / interstate by yourself. It’s not so much drafting but it requires a lot less effort/energy mentally.


If you follow another car with enough spacing to make it more relaxing, there will be NO Draft effect.

[keilan]

In that example I'm not talking about drafting. If I were using a drafting example I might have referred to race cars as opposed to driving down the hiway // or interstate.

Try reading the posts with a li'l comprehension, there’s a growing epidemic on this site – guys commenting on posts without taking the time to read them!!!

[chickenhead]

Keilan -- you can't drive race cars on the freeway, much less draft other cars with them.

[keilan]

Chic -- this is true :)

Apparently they're aren't many hi-way drivers on this forum, I'm sorry I used the analogy to try and make a point.

[Brian Flewwelling]

In that example I'm not talking about drafting. If I were using a drafting example I might have referred to race cars as opposed to driving down the hiway // or interstate.

Try reading the posts with a li'l comprehension, there’s a growing epidemic on this site – guys commenting on posts without taking the time to read them!!!

you are right about the failure to read, as your post examplifies. You even failed to read your own post with a "li'l comprehension"

[keilan]

It's post like this and others that make me question whether I'll remain at this site much longer.

You didn't read my post, yet feel complied to respond to it. Then in your next post you state I didn’t read my own post – who the fu** do you think wrote it?

Pa has chastised me for calling guys like you Einstein, Simpleton so I won’t go there tonight. I’ll save him posting a friendly reminder.

I’ve watched recently a bunch of $2 bettors run their mouths when but they clearly don’t have an original idea, such is the net. I see guys in the game for 2 years HERE and now they have all the answers, gotta luv it. :lol: :bang:

[PaceAdvantage]

keilan,

I'm being serious here. If you were me, how would you fix this place up? What is the best way to go about, in your mind, making this place a more pleasurable stay? Is it just a matter of getting rid of a couple of choice posters who do nothing but muck up the flow of threads with their useless drivel?

Do you suggest a "Midnight Surprise" scenario where said posters are rounded up, thrown into the back of a windowless black van, sped off into the night, and never heard from again? (until they return with a new alias that is....)

What say you? (if you don't want to answer here, feel free to PM or email me)

[hurrikane]

I"m all for the Black Van scenario.

Can we stop at a starbucks on the way out?

[keilan]

PA,

Flat out you have built this into one of the premier horse sites on the internet. It's just as the number in the community grows the content seems to go the other way too often. Probably as it should be, but it makes me grumpy all the same.

Recent discussions about energy with 461/2 and the Derby winner with King leave me shaking my head. One doesn’t have a clue about how pace /energy/and form are related and then wants to rattle my chain. The other guy never picked Giacomo anywhere yet wants to chastise a guy like Beyer who actually has an opinion before, during and after a race. Read Kingchas post #51 (Letter to Andrew Thread) its posts like that, that make me scratch my head. How does anyone begin to have a rational exchange? IMO Kingchas never made a reasonable case anywhere in the thread but verbally attacked everyone in sight myself, Beyer, Chic, Frankel, TLG and others. Hell at one point TLG guy comes close to apologizing to a guy that isn’t qualified to carry TGL lunchbox to the track.

In the very next post #52 Kenwood accuses/infers that I called Shirreffs a cheater, and my attitude is based on nothing more than wild speculation. Here’s what I actually said:

When Shirreffs and Smith were interviewed after the race a few thoughts struck me as I watched Shirreffs
1) this the most unhappy conditioner of a derby winner I have ever witnessed (head down hardly talking)
2) I hope I don’t get caught medicating my horse
3) I didn’t have one red-cent on my horse ($102 winner)

I was simply speaking to Shirreffs demeanor. I never said that Shirreffs cheated but again we have guys only half reading posts and going off on a tangent.

There are lots of guys here that are accountable for what they post, but it seems like an increasing number of guys here beak-off continually without any thought or reason. When’s the first time one of these guys actually broke a race down before they ran. The reason they don’t is because they can’t.

I was very wrong about the estimated pace in the Derby and it cost me plenty at the windows, but twenty minutes later I called a 2-10 x’s cold in the WR that paid $401 here and about 3 bills in the States.

Finally what to do with a few choice posters, honestly I think you are extremely fair to everyone that resides here, maybe too fair. Some guys piss me off as I'm sure that I do them. All I ask is that everyone be accountable and provide some kind of intelligent rationale when involved in discussions that relate to handicapping. Attacking Beyer after a race shouldn't be what this site represents.

[46zilzal]

Recent discussions about energy with 461/2 and the Derby winner with King leave me shaking my head. One doesn’t have a clue about how pace /energy/and form are related and then wants to rattle my chain. .
Some folks cannot let a SINGLE difference of opinion survive wtihout continually harping on it and name calling that's the heart of this....Goes back to an observation I made which (NO MATTER THE CAUSE) that has turned out to be true.......

DIFFERENCES of opinion are just that. NO RIGHT NO WRONG, just different...Shake your head all you want...IT is simple a DIFFERENCE of opinion that's it.

Never heard of someone seeing DIFFERENT things in the same data that you look at? That is how THINGS CHANGE
Innovators always run into this same thing, that is until time changes dogma to make room for new ideas.

That is why I really apprecaite guys like CJ: we have differences and they just remain different without NAME calling

[46zilzal]

NOT given out this year yet....But I do know a few WORTHY recipents.

[cj]

That is why I really apprecaite guys like CJ: we have differences and they just remain different without NAME calling

I like reading your posts, I don't always want to read from guys who think the same as me. Sometimes I wish you were a little less abstract though. :)

[keilan]

Some folks cannot let a SINGLE difference of opinion survive wtihout continually harping on it and name calling that's the heart of this....Goes back to an observation I made which (NO MATTER THE CAUSE) that has turned out to be true.......

Earth to 46, Berrythegold won his next start after you emphatically stated that he was a horse that had gone off form. Now because the horse hasn't raced back since then, you spout off that you must have been right all along. See 46 there are dozens and dozens of reasons horses get layoff so until you unequivocally know the reason he hasn't run maybe we should stick to what we know as the facts. Even the novice handicapper understands horses “going off form” don’t win races at the same class level.

Astute cappers whom accurately assess horses going off form consider these types as false favorites and bet against them with both hands. You on the other hand identify horses going off form only by their E% numbers without any regard to pace etc. Your approach isn’t very sophisticated and that’s the reason you will be wrong as often as your right. Not good in this game.

All I ask is that everyone be accountable and provide some kind of intelligent rationale when involved in discussions that relate to handicapping. IMO you provide none and if I had any influence around here you’d be long gone.

[46zilzal]

I like reading your posts, I don't always want to read from guys who think the same as me. Sometimes I wish you were a little less abstract though.
Funny you should mention that: in high school we took a battery of tests (most of which I was bored to tears with), but in ABSTRACT reasoning I scored very well.

[46zilzal]

IS A PROCESS not an abrupt step. Saw the same pattern in Pico Central and it TOOK TWO races for that one to express the same thing last FALL.

I gave LOTS of documented examples of the idea if you choose to search the archives

[keilan]

Trying posting before the race, all your examples are afterwards and then you still get it wrong. Your post regarding Pico Central was also after the fact, that’s called redboarding

Cj there's reasons people are always vague or abstract when it comes to discussing horses. In 46’s case it's fairly obvious.

[46zilzal]

How does one DISCOVER a pattern? By looking at HISTORY. To KNOW whether a pattern works or not, one gets a premise, finds the condtions that replicate same, and discovers whether the result is significant or sample error. Just like experimentation in ANY field of endeavor.

Fairly difficult to do that any other way. Do you know of an alternative? Please enlighten us all.

The other pattern of "going off form" was tried and confirmed by other posters...You can confirm/refute it yourself if you see that pattern

[46zilzal]

Runway Model in the Black Eyed Susan

LAST THREE %median
68.8
68.7
66.1


And I am NOT making this up either ..... and where did she finish??? Three races in a row where the % median goes up makes one QUESTION whether it is a good wager TODAY

[keilan]

I just called the x's in the WR but the difference is I did it before they ran.

Once again your example is after the fact.

[46zilzal]

doesn't make it any less true now does it?

[keilan]

Don't you see how silly that is.

[46zilzal]

I have an idea that WORKS OFTEN and is able to elucidate false favorites TIME AND TIME AGAIN...I am NOT going to refute what I see right before my very eyes no matter how many folks stubbornly refuse to even OPEN the door to a rational discussion of its merits.

It is a simple tool. Like ANY ANGLE, it does not works all the time but OFTEN enough to consider it significant....

Reminds me of a lab I used to work at. We all got the same exact number of a percentage of protein on a serum albumin sample and the lab director (even after an OUTSIDE LAB GOT THE SAME THING) stated: "I can't believe you all got the WRONG answer."

[formula_2002]

It’s not “cover”, but it does bring to mind how Cordero often rode “two” horses in a race. His of course, and the on that he kept to his inside.

[46zilzal]

It’s not “cover”, but it does bring to mind how Cordero often rode “two” horses in a race. His of course, and the on that he kept to his inside.
One thing that fellow did was to USE the rest of the field like none other. Had to admire the way he PUSHED the rules

[keilan]

You remind me of the guy at any OBT that proclaims to everyone within shouting distance that “you have to bet the grey in the mud” then when another grey wins in the soup they’ll hear you again yelling – see what did I tell you!!

Your example of a horse increasing his med energy in the last 3 races is everywhere so even when a horse gets a bad ride, gets bumped at the gate, is a false favorite, throws a shoe etc, your right there posting – see what did I tell you. I can’t believe I allow myself to get into these discussions.

If you want any creditability with me post something, anything before they run.

[46zilzal]

DON'T use that angle.

[Tom]

DON'T use that angle.


:D