Letter to Andrew

[KingChas]

A personal letter to Andrew

Remember when you didn't have alot of money,you derived a system,a speed figure system.You spent numerous manhours searching for the answers.Your drive was unstopable.Then one day you came upon that answer.Things changed.Great self confidence and happiness.You started winning gained a reputation.Became a great author.Then a major racing publication gave you a large sum of money to use your name.Know you have it all money,fame,and a place in history never to be forgotten a legend.You now have it all.But lately you have become skeptical,sometimes sarcastic,sometimes spitefull.It has become a job with a lot of overtime hours.You've let other people derive your figs for you.Youv'e lost the hunger, you no longer need to win your next wager to pay the rent.You have soured with age,you need to get back to your roots when you enjoyed this sport.Thats when you had it all.

[keilan]

I’ve never met Andrew but I’m betting you missed the mark by a football field

[KingChas]

I’ve never met Andrew but I’m betting you missed the mark by a football field

I have met Andrew many times,but I'm betting you missed your derby pick by a football field.

[keilan]

Matter fact I did, but it was more like 2 football fields. What’s your point?

[KingChas]

Matter fact I did, but it was more like 2 football fields. What’s your point?

I have come to know(met and talked to) Andrew several times at Saratoga.He seems unhappy the last couple years.My letter was about his post derby comments.I also lost on my derby wagers-no sour grapes.He has always been to me-eccentric in a good way-but he seems to have lost the enjoyment of handicapping.like it has become a burden.As for you explain missing the mark by a football field when you never met this person?-Are you just looking to argue?Whats your point?

[nick777]

I have come to know(met and talked to) Andrew several times at Saratoga.He seems unhappy the last couple years.My letter was about his post derby comments.I also lost on my derby wagers-no sour grapes.He has always been to me-eccentric in a good way-but he seems to have lost the enjoyment of handicapping.like it has become a burden.As for you explain missing the mark by a football field when you never met this person?-Are you just looking to argue?Whats your point?


I got $20WPS that says he's just looking to argue

you know how it is, guy's develop gambling problems, their old lady's leave em, and they got nobody left to argue with.

[keilan]

Andy’s an easy target because he’s visible and known in the horse game. It’s easy for anyone to take runs at him when he isn’t here to defend himself. I never see the point when people speak out against him or others of public statue to make themselves appear more important. If someone wants to make a point –then go ahead and make it but not at the expense of someone who doesn’t participate at this site.

As for your perception of Andy’s state of well being – do you have the skills/education to make those deductions? What exactly are your qualifications sir?

And lastly no I’m not looking to argue but nice try…………..

[keilan]

Nicky -- I'm surprised you survived the night. But I've got $20 across you won't see 2006 here. :cool:

[nick777]

Nicky -- I'm surprised you survived the night. But I've got $20 across you won't see 2006 here. :cool:



I would have to agree with that

Not sure that would be a bad thing either

[KingChas]

Nicky -- I'm surprised you survived the night. But I've got $20 across you won't see 2006 here. :cool:

keilan chill out-I have every book Andys written some autographed-the guy is awesome-just was writing about handicappers like us that sometimes suffer burnout.Sorry to offend you.I apologize.

Ps;Don't kill Nicky :eek:

[Macdiarmadillo]

Beyer has always been cranky. You forget the incidents he reported on himself including punching a hole in a pressbox wall. Remember his real hatred for Seattle Slew, who never ran "great numbers" but just beat everybody. Burnout is right on the mark. He's been looking pretty worn out the last few years and only seems to get enervated about Triple Crown time, for better or worse.

[the little guy]

Well, since I'm Beyer's designated defender, being the only actual good friend of his on this board, I might as well throw in my two cents.

He's about the most well adjusted person I know.

As far as " burnout ", well I think that's unfair, as he still remains a very enthusiastic horseplayer. But, I think any serious horseplayer that hasn't grown somewhat disgusted and disenchanted with many aspects of horseracing over the past ten years is really the one who is disillusioned. The rampant drug abuse in racing has made actual handicapping virtually obsolete in many situations, as we all spend more time trying to handicap trainers, instead of horses, in far too many situations. We have all suffered the frustration of smoking out a live longshot only to finish second to see an obvious " juice job " at the hands of a former 6% trainer who overnight became a 28% winner. There's only so many of these any of us can take before we become disenchanted.

Add to that the frustration of being an insider in this game, seeing on a day to day basis how screwed up the inner workings of the game are, and it becomes even harder to perservere. I think it is to Beyer's credit that he has never stopped fighting the good fight in the face of all the unpleasant distractions.

Luckily for him, he has his bicycle.

[Kreed]

I FEEL for Giacomo. I know, many are in still in denial, bad-mouthing this
horse, but not me. In the NY Times today, some guy Peter Fornicale,
pretending he knows something about capping, took the position that G's
win was an aberration. It amazes me because this kinda no brain position
is also common on Wall St, where all these intellectual know-nothings keep
on sounding the same tune year-after-year & are WRONG. Anyways, I won't
be surprised if Giacomo whips them again next week.

[the little guy]

I FEEL for Giacomo. I know, many are in still in denial, bad-mouthing this
horse, but not me. In the NY Times today, some guy Peter Fornicale,
pretending he knows something about capping, took the position that G's
win was an aberration. It amazes me because this kinda no brain position
is also common on Wall St, where all these intellectual know-nothings keep
on sounding the same tune year-after-year & are WRONG. Anyways, I won't
be surprised if Giacomo whips them again next week.So let me try to get this straight, Pete is pretending he knows something because doesn't like Giacomo, but you REALLY do know something, and think Giacomo's win in the Derby was what....impressive?....a true sign of some massive ability hidden in his previous efforts?

You " won't be surprised if Giacomo WHIPS ( funny I didn't realize he whipped them in the Derby, but I'm not an expert like you ) them again next week ". What does this mean? Is this fence sitting, or do you actually think he WILL win the Preakness, I really want to know. Because, and I know this is a pipe dream, I wonder how many that are making similar indefensible posts will return in a week to say maybe the Beyer's of the world, who called Giacomo's Derby win for what it was, were right.

[KingChas]

Well, since I'm Beyer's designated defender, being the only actual good friend of his on this board, I might as well throw in my two cents.

He's about the most well adjusted person I know.

As far as " burnout ", well I think that's unfair, as he still remains a very enthusiastic horseplayer. But, I think any serious horseplayer that hasn't grown somewhat disgusted and disenchanted with many aspects of horseracing over the past ten years is really the one who is disillusioned. The rampant drug abuse in racing has made actual handicapping virtually obsolete in many situations, as we all spend more time trying to handicap trainers, instead of horses, in far too many situations. We have all suffered the frustration of smoking out a live longshot only to finish second to see an obvious " juice job " at the hands of a former 6% trainer who overnight became a 28% winner. There's only so many of these any of us can take before we become disenchanted.

Add to that the frustration of being an insider in this game, seeing on a day to day basis how screwed up the inner workings of the game are, and it becomes even harder to perservere. I think it is to Beyer's credit that he has never stopped fighting the good fight in the face of all the unpleasant distractions.

Luckily for him, he has his bicycle.

Very disenchanted,you forgot to mention the recent late money also.Have a nice bet on a horse that goes in the gate at 4-1 and finishes race at 9/5.Talk about a humbling experience.

A little aside about Giacomo from the horseplayer mag before derby;
Nilsen's pedigree points:
"Giacomco simply is a cut below the top echelon of horses and doesn't gain anything from his pedigree to move forward going 10 furlongs.The son of Holy Bull is an ideal candidate to skip the Derby and point for the Preakness."

[JustRalph]

Well, since I'm Beyer's designated defender, being the only actual good friend of his on this board, I might as well throw in my two cents.

Tell him to keep screaming about the problems in the game. Then tell him to log his ass in on this board and participate in the best board around!

[Kreed]

So what's your issue? Giacomo DID NOT WIN? is that what you're implying?
XtraFast Pace? A Rabbit set-up? Yes, but that was common to all horses.
If you did NOT pick Giacomo your analysis was not correct. It's really that
simple to me. RE: Preakness ... since Zito will run only 1, Sun King or
High Fly or Noble Causeway, I really don't know the field. And haven't you
learned that is pays to know (guess) at the Expected Pace --- and that's when
the field is known. And just who are you anyways, Beyer's mother?

[the little guy]

Thanks for the sound handicapping advice, Kreed, as without people offering these brilliant insights I'm sure I would never be able to get myself over the hump from merely losing the takeout.

I am someone with an opinion, an opinion that is not only sought out by many others, but one that I bet a lot of money on. I also stand by my opinions, unlike you apparantly, and do not believe that Giacomo has a prayer in the Preakness, and wouldn't bet him if he was 50-1 again. You, on the other hand, seem to have many irons in the fire, as you feel free to gloat if an abyss swallows up the rest of the Preakness field, and mediocre Giacomo stumbles to victory again, yet you also are going to wait until the draw. How lucky for you that you can be right no matter what.

I am also someone that knows the person that you declared " pretends " to be a handicapper, and I would stake my money that he knows a lot more about the game than you do, and he's really just a casual player.

[kenwoodallpromos]

In Beyer's book, he admits that a college freind devised the system; He alo trashed DRF, Rag, and Thoro numbers early on.
To Beyer's credit, he acknowledges that this year's derby was the most tightly controlled for drugs- which is why he says it was so bad?
He either likes drugged winners, wants clean races, or only complains about drugs when his horses lose their next race? Which is it?

[Steve 'StatMan']

A little aside about Giacomo from the horseplayer mag before derby;
Nilsen's pedigree points:
"Giacomco simply is a cut below the top echelon of horses and doesn't gain anything from his pedigree to move forward going 10 furlongs.The son of Holy Bull is an ideal candidate to skip the Derby and point for the Preakness."

Just watch Giacomo be retired for stud duty before the end of the year, like many so many KY Derby winners. Then, in 2009, when his first offspring are contenders for the KY Derby, some 'pedigree expert' or T.V. talking head will surely write or say "his sire, Giacomo, won the KY Derby in 2005, so you know he's bred for the mile and a quarter". :lol:

[KingChas]

Hmmmmmm

There's a DECIDEDLY GAY flavor to this particular thread.

One dude, admitting that he had ONLY spoken to Beyer a few times, nevertheless feels the need to offer an in depth psychological analysis of the man.

Gee, aren't WE IMPRESSED!!!

At some point, you might want to ask yourself why you spend so much time thinking about him. Are you gay, perhaps?

Then, of course, we have the LITTLE DUDE, whose claim to fame is being an ACTUAL friend of Beyer's. So while he waits for his penile implant----so he can be a BIG DUDE---- he posts about the man. Did anyone say 'sycophant'?

In any event, seems like both of you have the hots for him.

Very,very GAY.............

Get a life, BOYS

the warm weather is here

Hmmmm,
Seems to me you know a lot more about the gay lifestyle than the two people you mentioned above.Now that you have wasted space on this forum do you have anything intelligent to add about Horseracing.

[keilan]

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm E R…………..

TLG is a player and offers insight on racing and comes to the defense of a friend when under attack. Where I come from that’s what friends do.

Your comments regarding TLG / King are attempts at humor I would hope. Poor humor but humor nevertheless. :)


Derek

That’s enuff silliness from you today, apologies to everyone you've offended today and take your spot in the WR.

[GeTydOn]

I'm confused. Just what is the point of this topic??? Back to what I think was the original point: I think it sucks the way Giacomo has been trashed since winning the Derby.

Haven't winning Derby longshots had a pretty decent record when they made it to the Preakness to compete??

[the little guy]

Since when is honestly disecting a race, and intelligently assessing a horse's performance, considered " trashing "?

What I think is sad are all the people who think just because Giacomo finished first he somehow put in a great performance. I think it's sad and preposterous how much uninformed venom there is towards people who have correctly analyzed the race.

Isn't that what handicapping is all about? Judging different horses' performances objectively, and making logical conclusions as to how they ran, and then betting accordingly. If this year's Derby was the third race at Aqueduct on a Thursday, would you ( I mean anyone who is upset that Giacomo hasn't received his perceived due ) be excited about betting him next time or betting against him?

Just because a horse finishes first in the Kentucky Derby doesn't mean he is somehow above critical analysis.

[Kreed]

*** I honestly don't know what your going on about. GIACOMO DID put in a
great performance; G1, Kentucky Derby, field of 20. If he didn't shine than what
of the 19 others? unless you wrote in another tongue i don't see any analyses
or dissecting of the KD. Middle distance horses with 120 Beyers don't have
what it takes when they can't control the pace. And Bandini's closing figs
were weak. Maybe both BR & Bandini Peaked before the KD ... and that's not
good.

[the little guy]

If you think Giacomo ran a " great " race in the Kentucky Derby I suggest you start playing the lottery exclusively, as your horse opinion stinks, and you will never get past your current rate of losing twice the takeout.

[Kreed]

once more NO ANALYSES. Just dumb remarks. & what have you got against
playing the lottery? If YOU can't afford it thats ok, but i can see you know
dick about capping. E R's remarks about you look more insightful after your
replies.

[Kreed]

Adios for tonight. I think since TheLittleGuy expressed his undying love for
Andy this thread went downhill. This much I know: I played Giacomo; he
had + connections; had the right distance specs; had an adoring jockey; was
peaking; had supporting workouts; ran in 2 GR1's without disgracing himself;
was on that account alone "classier" than ~12 others; and, REPEAT 2 TLG,
was facing a Peaked FAV with severe questions. I don't like you TLG cause
you're bitter & won't accept your own bad capping skills. Maybe take up
bocce if you're able to move about a little. Anyways, I'm outta here tonight for
fun times in my beloved manhattan. Just laugh more & get some hugs tonight
guys.

[pandy]

Beyer's just giving his opinion in his column, which is what columnists do. That doesn't mean he's bitter. He just might be the best racing columnist ever.

[WINMANWIN]

Enuff Bickering, Anyone catch BANK AUDIT today in the feature at BELMONT.
Migliore off, Arroyo On, beaten fave ANGLE..... :jump:

[PaceAdvantage]

Ah, my first job of housecleaning for the day....it smells better in here already!

I love it when folks make it easy for me....

[keilan]

PA - was that the faint scent of 777 exiting or someone else :D

Can't be me as I'm still typing hehe

[Steve 'StatMan']

PA - was that the faint scent of 777 exiting or someone else :D

Can't be me as I'm still typing hehe

More like 666 exiting! :D :jump:

[Tom]

Now, if I could only get this green stuff off of me!:D

[CryingForTheHorses]

If you think Giacomo ran a " great " race in the Kentucky Derby I suggest you start playing the lottery exclusively, as your horse opinion stinks, and you will never get past your current rate of losing twice the takeout.

Can't understand why you want to "diss" Giacomo for winning the derby!!
Guess your mad because you werent privy to the info.
Get off your high horse TLG and face reality.
He won!
Im sure if you owned him,It would have been a great race!!

[the little guy]

Can't understand why you want to "diss" Giacomo for winning the derby!!
Guess your mad because you werent privy to the info.
Get off your high horse TLG and face reality.
He won!
Im sure if you owned him,It would have been a great race!!I only hope for your sake that your supposed training is better than either your reading skills or general horse racing opinion. Though, considering your people skills, it's hardly surprising that you have no more than a five or six horse stable.

You have an opportunity to learn something about racing around here, which it's obvious you sorely need, by actually listening to the many knowledgable posters on this board. Yet time and again you display neither a lack of interest in gaining knowledge nor an ability to know what to do with any knowledge gained.

I keep waiting for your first post that shows either something insightful or that you've even actually read any post you respond to. That endeavor, however, is the chat room equivalent of " Waiting for Godot ".

[KingChas]

I remember the year Judge Smells was in early preps for a possible Derby spot
The media and the racing elite were up in arms because he had the wrong name to win the derby.As for breeding so did the PA. & NY bred horses.Not to mention Geldings$$$$.The case this year is that the Wrong Horse won.I hope he keeps winning and shuts up the stuffed shirts.If any horse is being treated like the blue collar average working man it is Giacomo.

[CryingForTheHorses]

Since when is honestly disecting a race, and intelligently assessing a horse's performance, considered " trashing "?

What I think is sad are all the people who think just because Giacomo finished first he somehow put in a great performance. I think it's sad and preposterous how much uninformed venom there is towards people who have correctly analyzed the race.

Isn't that what handicapping is all about? Judging different horses' performances objectively, and making logical conclusions as to how they ran, and then betting accordingly. If this year's Derby was the third race at Aqueduct on a Thursday, would you ( I mean anyone who is upset that Giacomo hasn't received his perceived due ) be excited about betting him next time or betting against him?

Just because a horse finishes first in the Kentucky Derby doesn't mean he is somehow above critical analysis.

The horses that need to be analyzed are the ones costing the owners hundreds of thousands of dollars being trained by trainers who are afraid to tell the owner the truth.Yes TLG I do supposedly train (YOUR opinion) AT least I dont lie when it comes to my horses,The winner of the Kentucky Derby was a fine example of horsemanship and management.Dont try to understand why he won, But why the others lost!!

[Tom]

You can argue all night long, but they only paid off on Giaco and no one else.

Evey horse entered the starting gate with an equal chance in terms of the gates all open at the saem time, they all run over the same dirt, the all carry the same weight.

The vast majority of the horses were nowhere near Giaco when he hit the wire.
Blame pace, blame trips, but Giaco won and he didn't cheat to do it.

[keilan]

I remember the year Judge Smells was in early preps for a possible Derby spot
The media and the racing elite were up in arms because he had the wrong name to win the derby.As for breeding so did the PA. & NY bred horses.Not to mention Geldings$$$$.The case this year is that the Wrong Horse won.I hope he keeps winning and shuts up the stuffed shirts.If any horse is being treated like the blue collar average working man it is Giacomo.

And what happens when Giacomo gets this ass kicked the remainder of the year when racing against the top 3 years --- Will that shut you up, will you finally see the derby for what it was? For a guy who didn't pic the horse you sure like him alot after the fact. Don't break any ankles jumping on and off the bandwagon.

Finally I think you would be over the moon if the so called knowledgeable players on this site are wrong about Giacomo. In some warped way you think that may validate you as a “player” and if Giacomo does nothing from this day forward you can always chirp that he was the Kentucky derby winner. Sweet!!!!

Hey but remember you still didn't cash with him :D

[cato]

I think the following is true: Giacomo won the KD. He faced and beat 19 other competitors who were considered the best of his generation. While he took advantage of a favorable pace scenario, many other good horses had that same opportunity and failed. He was challenged down the stretch by several other horses and he was able to hold on for the victory.

How can people be complaining about that? We have no idea as to whether he is a great horse or will even be the best of his crop. Stay tuned. Keep an open mind and find out.

All of this reminds me of investing and dealing with the market. The most valuable thing I've learned from that area to apply to different areas of life is that the market is always right--don't fight it. That is, you may be able to put together an elegant and persuasive argument as to why the market should go up but if, in fact, its going down, you better recognize the fact that the market is going down and either be on the sidelines or on the short side. The market will laugh at your theory. The same goes for handicapping. Who won?

Cheers, Cato

[keilan]

We all know the outcome of the race, thanx for the reminder boyz :)

[KingChas]

And what happens when Giacomo gets this ass kicked the remainder of the year when racing against the top 3 years --- Will that shut you up, will you finally see the derby for what it was? For a guy who didn't pic the horse you sure like him alot after the fact. Don't break any ankles jumping on and off the bandwagon.

Finally I think you would be over the moon if the so called knowledgeable players on this site are wrong about Giacomo. In some warped way you think that may validate you as a “player” and if Giacomo does nothing from this day forward you can always chirp that he was the Kentucky derby winner. Sweet!!!!

Hey but remember you still didn't cash with him :D

Keilan, from your replies to my posts I can see you are the Ultimate Player.A legend in your own mind.Can we have the honor of your Preakness picks before the race in writing?Or are you vaguely going to reply "Anyone but Giacomo?You are starting to come off ahead of Andy and TLG as #1 Sore Loser.

[bettheoverlay]

I'm actually happy that the gods of horse racing throw an upset curve every once in a while.

If only to present an opportunity to experience humility for those "firm conviction" people in love with their numbers, and who seemingly play the horses for ego stroking reinforcement.

Unfortunately, these folk usually use the opportunity to confront their bitter side. "I had it RIGHT!!! Its the damn horses that refused to cooperate."

Confront the chaos of racing (and life).

[Skanoochies]

The Little Guy, I think the idea of inviting A. Beyer to this forum is one hell of a good idea. Rather than having you defend his position, he could answer his detractors himself, but more importantly, his inclusion would make the best horse racing site on the internet even better IMO.

Give it some thought, please. :)

[keilan]

Passive aggression suits you :D

[KingChas]

Passive aggression suits you :D

Just wanted to thank Andy,TLG and keilan.I am now the Winningest Horseplayer Ever!They taught me that if you handicap a race wrong.
A; IT WAS A DUD
B; IT DOESN'T COUNT
C; IT WAS AN ABERATION

So now you see every time I handicap A race wrong I dismiss it-never happened.It only counts when I win. Me the Greatest.

And who said the trio above weren't positive thinkers?

[kenwoodallpromos]

I will not be upset at Andy if he does not show; Little Guy does plenty of personal insulting and refusing to address my posts. I do not need Andy to refuse to answer why the race he trashes the most is the one he says is the cleanest.
And I learn nothing from Little Guy's little personal jabs claiming he knows what members' ROI's are or what Tom does as a trainer when he obviously doesn't.
From some of TLG's posts to other threads I guess he actually does know a little more than only what Andy thinks and writes in his columns.
Maybe TLG would like to comment on what Beyer writes in his books about making his speed figures with a bottle of Jack, or that one should not rely on other's figures, or about the importance of trip handicapping. Maybe he could sub for his best buddy in trip analyzing the 2005 KY Derby using trip handicapping. Something other than "outstaggering". I did not see that in the charts. TLG- what Beyer number did BR earn in the Derby?

[chickenhead]

why in the world would Beyer come onto this board? To defend himself against the ridiculous opinions put up in this thread? Give me a break!

If he is as well adjusted as TLG says you will never see him here.

TLG, I know you wouldn't ask him to come to this board, and you shouldn't, but please, buy the guy a sandwich or something, a nice plate of pasta carbonara, he needs to add some lbs.

[keilan]

Okay let’s take the position that anyone who agrees with what Beyer wrote after the derby is arrogant, conceited POS of sh** like a few on this thread have implied.

Now chew on this for awhile boys; the trainer of Giacomo (John Shirreffs) is down at ground level during the race and doesn’t pick up his horse until late. Yep that sounds like confident horsemen to me, the biggest race of the year and he’s treating it like another 20k claiming race. He doesn’t think he has a shot but some guys here think Giacomo is the greatest thing since sliced bread though none of them had a winning ticket. King has anyone ever called you a piece of work?

Are those the actions one would expect from the trainer of the derby winner? Go ahead and give me your best explanation.

When Shirreffs and Smith were interviewed after the race few thoughts struck me as I watched Shirreffs
1) this the most unhappy conditioner of a derby winner I have ever witnessed (head down hardly talking)
2) I hope I don’t get caught medicating my horse
3) I didn’t have one red-cent on my horse ($102 winner)



Chic -- spot on, why would Beyer come here to discuss with the ridiculous ;)

[KingChas]

Now chew on this for awhile boys; the trainer of Giacomo (John Shirreffs) is down at ground level during the race and doesn’t pick up his horse until late. Yep that sounds like confident horsemen to me, the biggest race of the year and he’s treating it like another 20k claiming race. He doesn’t think he has a shot but some guys here think Giacomo is the greatest thing since sliced bread though none of them had a winning ticket. King has anyone ever called you a piece of work?





Chic -- spot on, why would Beyer come here to discuss with the ridiculous ;)

Yes, you and my wife.Here is the point keilan.A horseracing forum were no one can disagree with the racing god writers? :D Besides Cajun Beat who has Andy picked (right) in the last few years? He writes an article on Bellamy Rd being the best of this and many generations because of his overrated figs.Then the next article disqualifies him because of horses that never won the derby rules,hello, condescending a little.How about the year his derby horse won at 7f at Gp in Feb.Greatest of his generation.DUD How about his developing 3 yr old that always comes in third to this day?DUD As for Chickenhead,what a ( Y ) kisser .Ridiculous because we dare disagree with the great Andy?I hope all you guys bet the highest Beyer every race that will make you even with the betting publics opinion 33%.I don't need the chump change myself.Andrew doesn't have the OO to come on here.As for Sheriffs they probably wouldn't give him a luxury box- he should have locked himself in a little room like Frankel did with Empire Maker at the Belmont?Theres a trainer with a lotta class(LOL).I have seen better handicapping fig makers on this board than The professionals!You saw on pre derby selections a few years back(TV) that Andy is not a great debater.Bring him on!

What A Fool Believes He Recieves :lol:

[kenwoodallpromos]

"When Shirreffs and Smith were interviewed after the race few thoughts struck me as I watched Shirreffs
2) I hope I don’t get caught medicating my horse"
Statements like that is what I have against Beyer. I gather from this forum you are a good handicapper. But this attitude is based on nothing but wild speculation and is actually opposite of what Beyer wrote.

[Tee]

Now chew on this for awhile boys; the trainer of Giacomo (John Shirreffs) is down at ground level during the race and doesn’t pick up his horse until late. Yep that sounds like confident horsemen to me, the biggest race of the year and he’s treating it like another 20k claiming race. He doesn’t think he has a shot but some guys here think Giacomo is the greatest thing since sliced bread though none of them had a winning ticket. King has anyone ever called you a piece of work?

Are those the actions one would expect from the trainer of the derby winner? Go ahead and give me your best explanation.

When Shirreffs and Smith were interviewed after the race few thoughts struck me as I watched Shirreffs
1) this the most unhappy conditioner of a derby winner I have ever witnessed (head down hardly talking)
2) I hope I don’t get caught medicating my horse
3) I didn’t have one red-cent on my horse ($102 winner)


Mike Smith did an interview on TVG the day before the derby regarding Giacomo. From what I heard - the screws weren't fully tightened for the prep races. Those last two works after the last prep were an indication that the above might be true.

I have a feeling that both the conditioner and the pilot had a bit more confidence in their charge than what was led to believe.

So Shirreffs is a "juicer" now?

[kenwoodallpromos]

suspects the big prep winners were doped up (without positives coming back) and the trainers as juicer trainers. In light of the steroid baseball stuff, I wonder what the Yanks owner thinks of Beyer and BR being doped up illegally.
I find it interesting that Beyer seems to like a lot fewer legal drugs or no drugs to be used on horses (and I agree with that), but not only does he hate clean Derbys, he seems to hate closers as well. Maybe he will concentrate on figures for 2f baby races where no stamina is needed.
Maybe he will start assigning Beyer number somehow to the 1f times for horses going to auction. :ThmbUp:

[Niko]

I haven't seen the numbers but I highly doubt Giacomo will win the Preakness. I think he was the benefactor of circumstance. I give credit to Sheriff's who had him ready to benefit when a lot of others failed. Great victory for them but, doesn't mean he was the best horse in the race....
I like the Little Guys opinions (as well as others), don't take them personally..they're opinions, that's what we gamble on.
I can tell you one thing, if 99% of us were in Andy Beyers situation we'd all be bashing each other. I'd like the job but I wouldn't spend a lot of time defending myself on this board.

[KingChas]

why in the world would Beyer come onto this board? To defend himself against the ridiculous opinions put up in this thread? Give me a break!

If he is as well adjusted as TLG says you will never see him here.

TLG, I know you wouldn't ask him to come to this board, and you shouldn't, but please, buy the guy a sandwich or something, a nice plate of pasta carbonara, he needs to add some lbs.

Sounds to me like the Beyer followers have become quite fictional here.We now have a man that can read the Derby winners jockey and trainers minds.Plus claim larceny :liar:
Who knows maybe this is really Andy with a pen name?Very Ridiculous!!!!! :lol:

[Tee]

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=28057

[Kreed]

Right you are King. no point in getting weird about the KD winner. He's
the CHAMP. I like the way Scrappy T runs & I'm glad he's in the Preakness.
But that Giacomo rocks. The way he overcame adversity & being outnumbered
19 to 1 makes me think he's a LIBERAL DEMOCRAT. btw, yeah, bring that
Beyer guy in here ... i got a few questions to ask that dude.

[the little guy]

why in the world would Beyer come onto this board? To defend himself against the ridiculous opinions put up in this thread? Give me a break!

If he is as well adjusted as TLG says you will never see him here.

TLG, I know you wouldn't ask him to come to this board, and you shouldn't, but please, buy the guy a sandwich or something, a nice plate of pasta carbonara, he needs to add some lbs.I couldn't have said it better myself. The only thing less likely than him coming to this board would be my answering Kenwoodwhatever.

[Kreed]

I'll tell you what, I will invite Andy Beyer to come here, in some war-room like
setting, as Celebrity Guest .. with interactive kinda quick responses that the WR
setting allows. Now, I do not (as of now) know how I will get this done, but I'll try. I'm not teasing here, afterall, TLG, unless you're his Exclusive Agent, I can try --- go for the brass ring, it would be GREAT FUN & I know all of us with questions would be properly courteous to AB & face it, PA is the Only Cool
capping room for him. So, by Tuesday, 5/17 I am gonna start The Invite. (be
patient guys.) oops, with Mike's OK, which I'm assuming is Yes.

[KingChas]

I haven't seen the numbers but I highly doubt Giacomo will win the Preakness. I think he was the benefactor of circumstance. I give credit to Sheriff's who had him ready to benefit when a lot of others failed. Great victory for them but, doesn't mean he was the best horse in the race....
I like the Little Guys opinions (as well as others), don't take them personally..they're opinions, that's what we gamble on.
I can tell you one thing, if 99% of us were in Andy Beyers situation we'd all be bashing each other. I'd like the job but I wouldn't spend a lot of time defending myself on this board.

A tough job?How about the guys on TVG giving their pick 3,4,and 6's live on tv every day,plus picking winners for 30 to 50 races a shift. And do a damm fine job of it.I would love to see Andy try that. Little Guy what a cop out!You and Andy are above all this? I guess you think like Jeff Mullins all horseplayers are idiots.

[Kreed]

Guys, maybe i sounded off without asking YOU GUYS, "would you like for me
(or anyone else) to TRY to make plans to ask Andy to chat with us crazy happy
players, some of us very fig analytical, some less so. No wise guy stuff just
like we were all sitting around a corner bar (no dancing babes) & talking HORSES. hehe ... i'm not sure i could pull it off but what the Seabiscuit? LOL
Do I see a POLL coming on TOM or KEILAN?

[PaceAdvantage]

Mike Smith did an interview on TVG the day before the derby regarding Giacomo. From what I heard - the screws weren't fully tightened for the prep races.

And why isn't this fact being addressed more critically? So, in essence, Giacomo's connections were NOT trying to win any of the prep races they were entered into?

I heard Mike Smith himself tell Donna Brothers, as he pulled up after the Derby, that they weren't pushing too hard in the preps.....

Media jumps all over Wygod and company for non-disclosure with Sweet Catomine. But this kind of "we're not really going to try to win today" non-disclosure is AOK???

Once again, the bettor is screwed....but strangely, nobody is debating THIS incident. I've heard little talk on here about how Giacomo's connections admit to laying low in the preps.

Yes, maybe Jeff Mullins was right....we are idiots.

[Kreed]

omg, Lefty/Boxcar musta passed on latent rage. Yet, upon deep neurons
spinning, a Very Good Question. what are the dimensions of being honest
concerning a Trainer's Intent. Yet, wouldn't it be cruel to race a horse all out
when the horse isn't ready. its a RACE & these Dedicated Warriors might hurt themselves. I'm not sure... isn't it up to us cappers to realize than when the
KD approaches, trainers want to Prepare 4 the KD., not the preps, yet some
horses, to be in Peak KD form, must race Hard before, others, just Improve.
I think FORM + DIST rules in KD.

[freeneasy]

yeah id love to get ab in here. i figured out a marked improvement to his formula and i got it all worked out except for one little hitch that just wont let me pass "go", shit, everytime i sit down to put a little time into the search for this last piece to the solution iam looking for it just sits there thumbing its nose at me and i know i'am stearring right at the damn thing. yeah d that'd be a real big kick

[Kreed]

hey man, use a period every now & then mostly after a complete thought,
as in the simple sentence, "How High Is Your Hedge?" or any number of questions, just playing with you Free .... I use the Beyers and Andy has-is
a power force for all HorsePlayers. (even you Mel the buggyboyz inc) ....
i know if Andy doesnt wish to chat with us it's not from shyness.

[KingChas]

Once again, the bettor is screwed....but strangely, nobody is debating THIS incident. I've heard little talk on here about how Giacomo's connections admit to laying low in the preps.

Yes, maybe Jeff Mullins was right....we are idiots.

Yes PA,
The Sport of Kings has changed drastically.What I really get a kick out of is one post race write up where he says he doesn't really bet a lot on his own horses(Shirreffs). :D If he bet $200 for Mike Smith what the hell did he bet for himself? :liar:Maybe I'm a little naive? :rolleyes:

PS:What planet are some of these people from?

[lsbets]

Didn't a jockey who rode for Asmussen (one of the Meches I think) get suspended a couple of years ago for not trying to win a race when all the horse had to do was finish in the top 3 or 4 to qualify for a stakes race? Then in the stakes the horse romped and won easy. I think the prep race was at Delta and the stakes was at the FG. I remember thinking when he got suspended that all the guy did was follow the instructions from the trainer, but there is no way that Louisiana would suspend Asmussen for a year.

[Tee]

And why isn't this fact being addressed more critically? So, in essence, Giacomo's connections were NOT trying to win any of the prep races they were entered into?

I heard Mike Smith himself tell Donna Brothers, as he pulled up after the Derby, that they weren't pushing too hard in the preps.....

Media jumps all over Wygod and company for non-disclosure with Sweet Catomine. But this kind of "we're not really going to try to win today" non-disclosure is AOK???

Once again, the bettor is screwed....but strangely, nobody is debating THIS incident. I've heard little talk on here about how Giacomo's connections admit to laying low in the preps.

Yes, maybe Jeff Mullins was right....we are idiots.

I think u r jumping the gun a little there PA with your not trying to win comments, I don't believe it is that cut & dried.

I would think the main goal of any trainer with a Kentucky Derby hopeful is to get him there in one piece & not squeeze the lemon dry before the big dance.

Take a look at the pp's of a Real Quiet for instance. He lost all 1998 starts heading into the Kentucky Derby. A complete flop in the mud of the Golden Gate Derby, a 2nd by a slight margin in the San Felipe to Artax & 2 1/4 length defeat to Indian Charlie in the SA Derby - speed horses on a surface that plays kind to spd. That didn't stop him from winning the Kentucky Derby on a different surface & the extra 1/8th of a mile to work with.

Trying to win? U can debate that till the cows come home, but in this case I don't believe a win should be at the expense of the greater goal that lies down the road.

Prep races are just that - prep races. Whether for the Kentucky Derby or a 6 furlong race on the dirt for a grass router coming off an extended vacation. It is up to the handicapper to figure out both trainer intent & the ability of the thoroughbred athlete.

[Tee]

Yes PA,
The Sport of Kings has changed drastically.What I really get a kick out of is one post race write up where he says he doesn't really bet a lot on his own horses(Shirreffs). :D If he bet $200 for Mike Smith what the hell did he bet for himself?

I believe the $200 win ticket came from the owner.

[Tee]

Didn't a jockey who rode for Asmussen (one of the Meches I think) get suspended a couple of years ago for not trying to win a race when all the horse had to do was finish in the top 3 or 4 to qualify for a stakes race? Then in the stakes the horse romped and won easy. I think the prep race was at Delta and the stakes was at the FG. I remember thinking when he got suspended that all the guy did was follow the instructions from the trainer, but there is no way that Louisiana would suspend Asmussen for a year.


Good thing PA didn't mention that aliens were invading!!

Nothing like comparing apples to oranges.

[the little guy]

A tough job?How about the guys on TVG giving their pick 3,4,and 6's live on tv every day,plus picking winners for 30 to 50 races a shift. And do a damm fine job of it.I would love to see Andy try that. Little Guy what a cop out!You and Andy are above all this? I guess you think like Jeff Mullins all horseplayers are idiots.How exactly have I acted as though I'm " above " anything? I post here, don't I? I even argue with worthwhile posters. I do live handicapping seminars, for which I spend endless amounts of time handicapping, and I try my very best to patiently answer any and all questions people who attend, or see me at the races, ask me.

Who are you to question my devotion to this game and my treatment of horseplayers? I highly doubt you have given more of your time to other horseplayers than I have.

[kenwoodallpromos]

05-12-2005, 05:34 PM #6
kenwoodallpromos From an earlier thread-
what's to evaluate?



I guess we can evaluate Sheriff's comments about Giacomo being pointed for many months to the Kentucky Derby and does that mean he was not trying to win some previous races? Was the horse not going all out in the stretch when he finished earlier In The Money, and does that mean the bettors are being duped?
_____________
Left up to us, we would still need to klnow what race the "Prep Stakes" is for.

[freeneasy]

concerning this poster "e_r" or whatever his dipshit handle is, you need to have his computer blocked from coming onto this site ( like a phone block if something like that exist for web sites) because i guarantee you that this is the same freak that came on here a while back spouting the same sexual crap under the handle "coach" and i'll give you 10-1 that this man is probably a standing member in the mambla organization. he has no place here and he probably has no place anywhere where people have families. my feeling is that this man loves the things that are deplorable and detestable.

[Tee]

Mike Smith did an interview on TVG the day before the derby regarding Giacomo. From what I heard - the screws weren't fully tightened for the prep races. Those last two works after the last prep were an indication that the above might be true.

Perhaps I should have said that the screws were tightened a bit more.

Probably would have received the same response.

[freeneasy]

i just realized i could have put that last post in the "off topic" sorry guys didnt mean to spoil everybodies fun

[Hammerhead]

After reading for the first time the posts to this thread, it looks like a bunch didn't do their own handicapping and relied on other folks material to determine there picks. Boulderdash I say. Observe what happens in the PAST in this race. FAVORITES are looosers. Size of field dictates what to play and it's only one of thousands of races a year. Winners are normally 10-1 or better. I play in a 20 horse field win on any above 15-1. 15 horses 10-1. All the horses running are 3 YEAR OLDS. Not one is a genius or has been the distance. They don't have 100 racing lines in there PP's. When they awake they don't have a clue what the hell all the excitement is at CDX. Why is this idiot pointing that camera at me with a entorage of more idiots. Pimlico will be differant probably 1 of the top 3 favorites. Belmont a recant horse. Just facts folks. If you lose it is not someone elses fault. Piss poor handicapping thats the answer.

[KingChas]

How exactly have I acted as though I'm " above " anything? I post here, don't I? I even argue with worthwhile posters. I do live handicapping seminars, for which I spend endless amounts of time handicapping, and I try my very best to patiently answer any and all questions people who attend, or see me at the races, ask me.

Who are you to question my devotion to this game and my treatment of horseplayers? I highly doubt you have given more of your time to other horseplayers than I have.

TLG, Sorry I was a little off base with you.This thread started by myself has become chaotic.I really didn't want to bust on Andys picks in this thread at all.Its more about the sourness of his post race comments.It just kind of upsets me that he passes judgement on the Kentucky Derby-1/3 of the TC races.I could have agreed with him if after the TC (Preakness/Belmont) this turns out to be the case.(IMHO) But labeling the Kentucky Derby a dud before TC races are complete.I can't agree.Talk to me about that in June.

Tee; your right owner made bet- :blush:
Also for those confused; the other planet comment was for the two gentlemen speaking their own language between PA and my posts. :confused:

[the little guy]

No problem, KingChas, thanks.

Chaotic is OK.

[Pace Cap'n]

Wow, what a thread. Just when you thought you'd seen everything...

Along comes D2U (Kreed) with suggestions for grammatical accuracy. That has to be the POTY.

To get back to something horsey......did not someone (Perhaps Totemaster?) submit a post postulating there may be a trainer with Derby intentions who was slow-playing his steed in the preps? That idea was pretty much poo-pooed by the resident 'capping gentry. Well, lo and behold.

And so far as the best horse not winning....get real. The winner is the winner is the winner. If he never wins another race, or even runs another step, he still came in first in racing's pre-eminent race. He was certainly the best horse that day.

No, I didn't have him either. But I did recognize the possibility of a pace collapse. Just bet the wrong bunch of longshots.

[the little guy]

I don't see how you can say he was " certainly " the best horse that day. While everyone is more than entitled to their own opinion, I highly doubt you think the winner of EVERY race is the best horse on that given day, or at least I hope you don't. I would be willing to bet you have bet many horses that have finished second, or even worse, that you have objectively felt were best, but failed to win due to trips.

If I had to say who I thought ran the best race in the Derby I would have to say Closing Arguement, who made an agressive, and somewhat early, run into the race, only to tire right at the end and lose to Giacomo, who was simply the last man standing. I don't think Giacomo ran badly in the context of the race, but I don't think he put in the overall best performance, and I also don't think he ran better than Flower Alley. Flower Alley had an insane trip and ride. Not only did Chavez foolishly put him into a drive on the backstretch, inside of Going Wild, but he was shuffled back badly on the turn, blocked in the stretch, and was still running a bit at the end. None of this is meant as a criticism of Giacomo, which oddly people seem to misconstrue about any objective insights into the race, whether right or wrong, but simply an unbiased opinion about the race.

And believe me, I never came close to betting Closing Arguement or Flower Alley. I am very objective about the horse I bet, Sun King.....he sucked and couldn't have won the race if they ran it 1000 times!

[tholl]

And why isn't this fact being addressed more critically? So, in essence, Giacomo's connections were NOT trying to win any of the prep races they were entered into?

I heard Mike Smith himself tell Donna Brothers, as he pulled up after the Derby, that they weren't pushing too hard in the preps.....

Media jumps all over Wygod and company for non-disclosure with Sweet Catomine. But this kind of "we're not really going to try to win today" non-disclosure is AOK???

Once again, the bettor is screwed....but strangely, nobody is debating THIS incident. I've heard little talk on here about how Giacomo's connections admit to laying low in the preps.

Yes, maybe Jeff Mullins was right....we are idiots.

SURELY YOU ARE KIDDING ? Mike Smith did not say that they did not try to win the preps, just that the horse was not pushed to be fully fit to peak in those races. This happens all the time; some trainers are better second time off a layoff eg, but it does'nt mean they don't try to win first time. With this mentality the likes of Bill Mott need to be investigated because they "don't try to win with their first time starters" Give me a break.
A very major part of handicapping is to figure out which horses are going to improve off races which would be why most decent handicappers incorporate trainer stats into their thinking.
If you really believe your post, then I would have to agree with your last statement. ;)

[GMB@BP]

SURELY YOU ARE KIDDING ? Mike Smith did not say that they did not try to win the preps, just that the horse was not pushed to be fully fit to peak in those races. This happens all the time; some trainers are better second time off a layoff eg, but it does'nt mean they don't try to win first time. With this mentality the likes of Bill Mott need to be investigated because they "don't try to win with their first time starters" Give me a break.
A very major part of handicapping is to figure out which horses are going to improve off races which would be why most decent handicappers incorporate trainer stats into their thinking.
If you really believe your post, then I would have to agree with your last statement. ;)

I tend to agree, isnt part of the puzzle that leads to good mutuals trying to figure out trainer intention.

[PaceAdvantage]

SURELY YOU ARE KIDDING ? Mike Smith did not say that they did not try to win the preps, just that the horse was not pushed to be fully fit to peak in those races. This happens all the time; some trainers are better second time off a layoff eg, but it does'nt mean they don't try to win first time. With this mentality the likes of Bill Mott need to be investigated because they "don't try to win with their first time starters" Give me a break.

No, I won't give you or anyone a break as long as we are constantly taking to task trainers for every little thing lately, and ignoring other stuff that has nefarious implications. On this very board lately, every other trainer it seems is being labeled a JUICER or a cheater in some way or the other, whether it's true or not.

We've reexamined plenty of stuff lately in t-bred racing, including pre-race and post-race testing, as well as detention barns, etc. Why not reexamine the way trainers enter races (especially GRADED STAKES RACES) with the ultimate intention of not "trying very hard" to win, or, as you put it, "not pushed to be fully fit."

Wygod is considering leaving the game for the treatment he got over Sweet Catomine (and I NEVER defended Wygod, and still won't....just using him as an example.)

Now, here we have the connections of the KENTUCKY DERBY winner, openly admitting that they were not pushing their horse to win his preps. In essence, they were saying "Well, if we win, ok, but I'm not putting a horse who is 100% ready, into this race."

Giacomo raced THREE times in 2005 before the Derby, and in ALL THREE races (including a GRADE 2 and a GRADE 1) he was bet under 4-1....one time he was 7/5 (in the ungraded SHAM stakes)!!! He collected a check in EVERY ONE of those races, and came close to winning twice, but unless you bet him to place or show, you got zip. His comment lines even read like a horse who wasn't really trying (HELD 3rd, HELD 2nd, BEST REST).

How much money was burned on this horse at those odds by bettors who weren't aware these connections had goals other than winning these prep races, which they readily admit to AFTER the Kentucky Derby?

I have a big problem with folks labeling trainers JUICERS with no evidence except high winning percentages, and folks crying foul at a guy like Wygod, but giving a pass to Shirreffs and company.....

Maybe you feel easy about letting him slide, and patting him on the back as one of the "good guys" in racing. But when you go to handicap a graded stakes race, do you really expect any of the entrants to be "holding back" and not giving their all to win?

Do you really expect for the horse's third start of the year in the GRADE 1 Santa Anita Derby that they wouldn't be trying all that hard to win? Giacomo got bet down to 7-2 in that 11 horse field....that's a lot of burned money. He got beat by the likes of BUZZARDS BAY, General John B, and WILKO!!!!

If I am Joe Q Public and I bet my hard earned money on Giacomo in the Santa Anita Derby (a nationally televised race), and I find out later that the connections were saying, in essence, that they really weren't worried too much whether the horse won because of bigger and better things down the road, how would that make me feel?

Plenty of guys on here cry about the following all the time:


Racing is going down the tubes.
Other forms of gaming are beating it over the head in terms of wagering handle.
Drugs and a bad image are hurting the sport.
"Super" trainers are killing the game and giving it a bad name.

But they're going to let this slide, because Shirreffs is one of the "good guys?"

And you want me to give YOU a break?

[PaceAdvantage]

And one more thing tholl. I never said there should be an investigation (What's to investigate? The connections admit to this stuff).

I merely called for a little criticism and debate....

Much in the same way I called for a little criticism and debate about how Tabor was allowed to enter Spanish Chestnut as part of an UNCOUPLED entry, despite the fact that he was being used as a rabbit. Apparently nobody cares about this little indiscretion either, as it didn't generate much, if any debate.

[PaceAdvantage]

How very interesting that this headline/story appears on the Blood-Horse website:

Giacomo Ready To Rock, Shirreffs Says (http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=28145)
Giacomo galloped a mile at Churchill Downs on Sunday, and trainer John Shirreffs pronounced his Kentucky Derby (gr. I) winner ready for next Saturday's Preakness (gr. I), the second leg of the Triple Crown. Blood-Horse (http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=28145)

How come there weren't any "Giacomo not quite ready to win" headlines before the Santa Anita Derby, or the San Felipe, or the Sham? :lol:

How come Shirreffs felt the need to clam up when his horse wasn't at peak fitness for two other Graded Stakes events?

[Tote Master]

After reading this thread, I can certainly see the frustration in those whose choices in the Derby finished up the track. But to say that the best horse didn’t win the race that day is an absolute farce. Those who dismiss Giacomo’s victory, act as if the other 19 stopped at the 1/4 pole. This couldn’t be further from the truth. We’re not talking about greatness here. We’re talking about one leg of the Triple Crown. No one knows how these 3-year olds will develop.
The Little Guy
I don't see how you can say he was " certainly " the best horse that day. While everyone is more than entitled to their own opinion, I highly doubt you think the winner of EVERY race is the best horse on that given day, or at least I hope you don't. I would be willing to bet you have bet many horses that have finished second, or even worse, that you have objectively felt were best, but failed to win due to trips. When I read things like this I just shake my head, and wonder: Are these people for real and watching the same Derby (or races) that I am? Is this how they justify their losses? By saying, “I picked the best horse in the race, but for some reason (which I know I’ll find) it didn’t win”. Well, as far as I’m concerned the best horse in any race WINS. Just because the PP’s (or their interpretations) don’t jive with the outcome doesn’t mean a horse didn’t win (or shouldn’t have won).

The ironic part of this whole scenario (particularly with prep races or racing workouts) is that the traditional handicapper seems to always assume that every horse in a race is out there to win. If this were true I’d still be pouring over all the PP’s, the numbers, the pace, the track variants, etc., etc. I too was once very frustrated by thinking I had selected the BEST horse in a race, only to find that it lost (and not because of a bad trip or some other lame excuse). Don’t get me wrong, like most players I got my fair share of winners, but I knew in spite of all my diligence that something was missing from my game. Besides where in the rules does it say that a horse must be entered to win? Once this is recognized and accepted, the game suddenly takes on a new dimension. The key word is GAME. This is not a science or an engineering project.

GMB@BP
I tend to agree, isn’t part of the puzzle that leads to good mutuals trying to figure out trainer intention. Exactly! And isn’t a puzzle akin to a game?

I have nothing against Andy Beyers, but I will say that those who spend the time and effort can develop better numbers for sure, especially when considering the early fractions of a race. But even the most accurate numbers are only measurements of the past. Later assuming that each horse will run back to those numbers (good or bad) is purely hypothetical. As far as I’m concerned, it leaves out the key ingredient: Intent. My personal feelings about authors like him (who have touted the traditional approach for so long) have certainly made the game more interesting in one respect, by popularizing their analytical approaches. On the other hand, you can also say that these same authors have brain-washed generations of many a horse player who fights this game every day looking for answers as to why the "so-called" BEST horse in a race didn’t win.

Best of Luck

[PaceAdvantage]

So, a horse who is battling on the front end through torrid fractions against 2 other speedballs, and ends of losing by a nostril to a horse who has a dream "off the pace" trip wouldn't be considered the "best horse" in the race by Tote Master, because he did not in fact officially WIN the race....LOL

Refresh my memory.....who was Tote Master's pick for the Derby before they ran the race?

[tholl]

I don't think one can accuse Shirreffs of not trying to win the SA Derby, but one maybe could say that he was 95% fit for it and Shirreffs was hoping to get the final 5% from the race to go into the Derby.(Which I guess he did) But this is normal practice for many horses being aimed at a major race; if Giacomo was a truly great horse he still would have won the SA Derby 95% fit just as many others have done in the past.Just as an example of what I'm trying to say: Baffert freely admitted that Point Given needed a tough race in his Santa Anita Derby to get him to Kentucky 100% fit. However he won so easy (at SA) that he was still short and lost the KY Derby possibly because of it. Had he met some competition at SA and got nosed out and then won in KY it would be the same situation.
Just my opinion this is all part of the game. There is no rule that states a horse must be 100% fit (fitness wise, not talking about ailments etc) to run in a race, but it is our job as handicappers to figure out how fit they are whether we do by paddock inspection, checking the workouts or trainer stats. And also being able to see the big picture, ie to figure out what's down the road for the horse. It was no secret that Giacomo's main aim was the KY Derby since last November. I'm not saying that I saw it in him,(since I really believe that he flat got lucky) but I'll look at other horses of Shirreffs' in the future that might be prepped for a major race. At least we can learn from it.
However there is no way that you can compare this to "juicing" horses, which you bring up, which is not only illegal but also throws everything into chaos for the handicapper.
I'm all for debate etc, and yes you're right it did seem like few people cared about Spanish Chesnut being used as a rabbit. However, I don't see it as an "indiscretion" since no rules were broken and he was uncoupled as per Kentucky rules.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm not trying to imply in either case that rules were broken. What I'm trying to do is debate whether these rules need to be "fixed," just like we have in the juicing cases, where NEW rules and NEW procedures have been put into place.

Mike Smith's exact words pulling up after the Derby -- "We also never had him ready like we do today"

For the guy that bet $500 to win on him in the Santa Anita Derby, where he finished 4th, beaten two lengths, that's comforting news.....

[tholl]

So, a horse who is battling on the front end through torrid fractions against 2 other speedballs, and ends of losing by a nostril to a horse who has a dream "off the pace" trip wouldn't be considered the "best horse" in the race by Tote Master, because he did not in fact officially WIN the race....

Must agree with you there for sure. :)

[tholl]

Does'nt seem to me that theres anything that can be fixed, fitness seems somewhat subjective (?).

So I take it you bailed out on Giacomo in the Derby? Thats too bad.

[46zilzal]

So, a horse who is battling on the front end through torrid fractions against 2 other speedballs, and ends of losing by a nostril to a horse who has a dream "off the pace" trip wouldn't be considered the "best horse"
That little nag ran a hell of a race, but I am afraid it will cost him dearly regression wise.....

[Tote Master]

PA
So, a horse who is battling on the front end through torrid fractions against 2 other speedballs, and ends of losing by a nostril to a horse who has a dream "off the pace" trip wouldn't be considered the "best horse" in the race by Tote Master, because he did not in fact officially WIN the race....LOL This is exactly what I’m talking I’m talking about. A complete exaggeration of reality! Is this your perception of how the Derby was actually run? Or are you talking in generalities? Even if you are please tell everyone how many races are won and lost in this fashion. Maybe we should start giving the winning purses to those whom we thought tried the hardest to win. Or had their chances of winning compromised because they ran too fast early on. Or better yet to those whom a consensus of handicappers said were “the best” in a race. You’re right LOL! And those holding the official winning tickets are laughing all the way to the bank, while the others are still clamoring over who they felt was the best horse in the race.
PA
Refresh my memory.....who was Tote Master's pick for the Derby before they ran the race? By the way, my preliminary pick for the Derby was Bellamy Road, but I’m not licking my wounds because he got beat by a better horse that day. I can only imagine what some on this board would say today after they witnessed Onion beating Secretariat, or Dr Patches beating Seattle Slew, etc., etc. I’m sure they’d find some plausible excuse. My all time favorite is “he bounced”.

Have a good night!

[cj]

I have a big problem with folks labeling trainers JUICERS with no evidence except high winning percentages, and folks crying foul at a guy like Wygod, but giving a pass to Shirreffs and company.....

The evidence isn't just high win percentages, it is how they start losing when they are under more scrutiny or testing changes or whatever.

As for Giacomo, I guess one would have to watch the replays to see what the intent was. Isn't this supposed to be the stewards' job?

[WJ47]

And why isn't this fact being addressed more critically? So, in essence, Giacomo's connections were NOT trying to win any of the prep races they were entered into?

I heard Mike Smith himself tell Donna Brothers, as he pulled up after the Derby, that they weren't pushing too hard in the preps.....

Media jumps all over Wygod and company for non-disclosure with Sweet Catomine. But this kind of "we're not really going to try to win today" non-disclosure is AOK???

Once again, the bettor is screwed....but strangely, nobody is debating THIS incident. I've heard little talk on here about how Giacomo's connections admit to laying low in the preps.

Yes, maybe Jeff Mullins was right....we are idiots.

I personally think this aspect of racing is worse than the drug factor in some ways. If they didn't go all out to win with Giacomo in all of his previous races, can you imagine how much money he burned up for the bettors? Everyday, I watch races where it is evident that a number of horses in the race are just entered for a jog with no intention of winning or to acquire bad running lines. I don't think anything could be done about it though because I think the tracks probably indirectly encourage it and ask trainers to enter races to get them filled. I think that illnesses, procedures, equipment, and vet visits should be disclosed for all horses. I didn't bet Sweet Catomine that day as I generally try to avoid betting fillies with such low odds against colts, but I think it is a real shame that the coverup occurred and so many bet on a horse with no shot to win.

[the little guy]

When you say something akin to " the best horse in any race WINS " you then disqualify yourself from saying " that's not what I meant " when someone gives a counter example that shows how far off base your original comment was.

And, why is it so hard to read what I post? The persistent " eveyone knocking Giacomo is just bitter because they didn't bet him " is this thread's eqivalent of " nah-nah na-nah-nah ". Just because you think it's OK to have opinions like " the winner is always the best horse " - which by the way is very funny in light of your name - Tote Master - doesn't mean everyone here writes things that don't make sense.

You may choose to disagree with my analysis and opinions that Closing Argument ran the best overall race, along with Flower Alley, and if you used some actual logic I would love to debate the issue. But I'm sorry, " Giacomo finished first so he was the best horse in the race " disqualifies you from that possibility. Somehow, however, I doubt you're too upset by this.

[PaceAdvantage]

This is exactly what I’m talking I’m talking about. A complete exaggeration of reality! Is this your perception of how the Derby was actually run? Or are you talking in generalities?

Obviously, I'm not talking about the Derby in my example.

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't think anything could be done about it though because I think the tracks probably indirectly encourage it and ask trainers to enter races to get them filled.

I agree, there is nothing that can really be done about trainers who don't have winning a race that they enter as top priority. However, that doesn't mean that we as bettors have to be happy about this kind of thing, especially when it is rubbed in our faces after the fact, so to speak.

I know that most likely, John Shirreffs wasn't trying to bury Giacomo's form to get a price in the Derby. He was doing what he thought was best for his horse, in order to get a peak performance in what was his ultimate goal for the horse this spring.

But he's also a product of the "I don't give too much thought to the betting customer" environment that permeades the backstretch. This is par for the course. These guys (Shirreffs and Smith) thought nothing of saying how they "...never had him ready like we do today." They're basically in our face as bettors, calling us idiots like Jeff Mullins did....we're idiots for letting Giacomo go off at 50-1 because we weren't privy to the fact that they weren't trying all that hard to win in his first three starts of the year.....

To this I say "Thanks alot fellas!!"

And whether I or anyone else won or lost money in the Derby is totally irrelevant, so let's put that macho pissing contest aside for the time being, and not let that cloud the main argument here....

[cj]

I totally agree PA, where are those California stewards on this one?

[Pace Cap'n]

Has the objective of any race ever been to determine the "best" horse?

The race is run to determine a winner. In the Derby, all had a chance. Only one availed himself of that opportunity,

The "best" can only be determined over the course of a career, and even then only subjectively and with much discussion.

With regard to Shireff's prep's, has not "trainer intent" always been a significant handicapping factor? It seems acceptable to some for that to be a legimate factor in claiming races, but somehow black-type races should be sacrosanct.

[Valuist]

This thread started out about Beyer. How did evolve into a Giacomo thread? He's (Giacomo) had his 15 minutes. He's already old news.

[skate]

if the Giac stays healthy, hell be in the race and hes got a good chance of winning.


i thought that was a good opening letter on Andy. i saw the letter to Andy as beneficent to him, might not need IT but wont hurt.


most races are very even and tough to figure. when i lose, ive either bet wrong (bingo) or ive overlooked a good point.
i , for the most part, can see what ive missed. and im fine with that "after the race realization".

i cant figure how someone would want to "keep a knocking" the industry and or posters and expect others not to see them squable.

got short comings all over the world, every industry, business, function and whatever. if one were to judge this industry as negative (betting, training), i propose that it would be a good idea to venture out into another segment.
find out whats going on elsewhere.
the negatives are human nature, nothing horse racing and /or betting has a monopoly upon.

my opinion.

[Steve 'StatMan']

Much in the same way I called for a little criticism and debate about how Tabor was allowed to enter Spanish Chestnut as part of an UNCOUPLED entry, despite the fact that he was being used as a rabbit. Apparently nobody cares about this little indiscretion either, as it didn't generate much, if any debate.

A side point from the prior page. I believe CD and other racing powers had the rules of racing changed in KY specifically for the KY Derby so now all horses must race uncoupled. That was specifically to increase the number of betting interests, which increases the number of exotic combos, increasing the payoffs and creating more interest and more handle. So you won't see coupled entries, nor mutuel fields, in the KY Derby anymore. But owners and trainers can still have more than 1 horse in the race.

Personally, I don't think it's fair to the betting public either, and I haven't liked a similar change in IL, where multiple horses from the same trainer but not common ownership must run uncoupled, for this same reason. One might get used (sacrificed) as a pace rabbit for the other. Sometimes it is obvious, sometimes not. But the public does get burned when a separate betting interest is raced in a way that it severely compromises it's own chances of finishing well in the race.

[freeneasy]

I agree, there is nothing that can really be done about trainers who don't have winning a race that they enter as top priority. However, that doesn't mean that we as bettors have to be happy about this kind of thing, especially when it is rubbed in our faces after the fact, so to speak.

I know that most likely, John Shirreffs wasn't trying to bury Giacomo's form to get a price in the Derby. He was doing what he thought was best for his horse, in order to get a peak performance in what was his ultimate goal for the horse this spring.

But he's also a product of the "I don't give too much thought to the betting customer" environment that permeades the backstretch. This is par for the course. These guys (Shirreffs and Smith) thought nothing of saying how they "...never had him ready like we do today." They're basically in our face as bettors, calling us idiots like Jeff Mullins did....we're idiots for letting Giacomo go off at 50-1 because we weren't privy to the fact that they weren't trying all that hard to win in his first three starts of the year.....

To this I say "Thanks alot fellas!!"

And whether I or anyone else won or lost money in the Derby is totally irrelevant, so let's put that macho pissing contest aside for the time being, and not let that cloud the main argument here....

well i think ive got just the solution for trainers that dont want to push their horse to the limit in order to win and at the same time give their horse a race.
start carding non betting races without any purses. these can be done on the off days and/or in between live racing. and both any trainer or horse that has or has been entered in a betting race that is not trying to win is automatically disqualified from racing for 2 months or 60 days which ever comes first (thank you very much yogi). but with something like that the simple fact still remains that a trainer can still enter his horse in a betting race for the purpose of exocise or training with no one ever being the wiser so maybe the penalties and fines when caught should be consistant with the larceny that was committed when the fan was "conned" into betting on a sure damn thing loser. and not only that but in all actuallity when a trainer has no intention of entering his horse in a race with or for that or the purpose of winning that or the race and this information has not been made availably public then a crime where public money has been accepted under false pretenses has been committed for the purpose of illegal gain. in other words you been defrauded and got taken, took, scammed, jammed and rammed for your hard earned money.

[GMB@BP]

Pace Advantage,

Just so we are clear, a jockey says that we never had him as good as we had him today, and this means they were not trying to win previous races?

How about today he was better for a whole variety of reasons, like a different training routine, a different feed routine, different shoeing, god only knows there could be a 100 reasons for that statement.

Believe me, they were not trying to run 4th or 3rd in the SA Derby, they barely got in the race to begin with.

Also, I would not put to much stock into anything a jock says, smith was right on this horse but he has been wrong on too many others. All jocks say stupid things. Heck Prado said he had no pace in the blue grass and thats why sun king did not do well, which was a complete fabrication.

[PaceAdvantage]

Pace Advantage,

Just so we are clear, a jockey says that we never had him as good as we had him today, and this means they were not trying to win previous races?

He didn't use the phrase "never had him as good", he used the phrase "never had him as READY"

Big difference, at least in my mind. And I don't think the post race interview by Donna Brothers is the only place it was alluded to that Giacomo was not being pushed all that hard to win the races he was entered prior to the Kentucky Derby.

[PaceAdvantage]

well i think ive got just the solution for trainers that dont want to push their horse to the limit in order to win and at the same time give their horse a race.
start carding non betting races without any purses.

Only problem there is they wouldn't have enough graded stakes earnings to make the cut if a full field of 20 presents itself.

[GMB@BP]

He didn't use the phrase "never had him as good", he used the phrase "never had him as READY"

Big difference, at least in my mind. And I don't think the post race interview by Donna Brothers is the only place it was alluded to that Giacomo was not being pushed all that hard to win the races he was entered prior to the Kentucky Derby.

I dont think its any different......and to that person that lost $500 on the santa anita derby, they should go back and look at the pace as the reason, not the horses preperation. With pace, Smith said he would have won that day as well.

[PaceAdvantage]

Again, I will ask this question. Where is it in Giacomo's PPs that demonstrate he is a one run closer who needs a hot pace to win?

In every single one of his route races BEFORE the Kentucky Derby, he was never more than 3.75 lengths BEHIND the leaders by the SECOND CALL.

Here are his beaten lengths starting in February:

1 1/8M Sham .5 - 2.5 - 1.5 - 1.25
1 1/16 San Felipe 3 - 1 - 2.5 - 6.5
1 1/8 SA Derby 5 - 3.75 - 2 - 2

Certainly doesn't read like a one run closer to me. I don't understand where people are coming up with this?

[GMB@BP]

Again, I will ask this question. Where is it in Giacomo's PPs that demonstrate he is a one run closer who needs a hot pace to win?

In every single one of his route races BEFORE the Kentucky Derby, he was never more than 3.75 lengths BEHIND the leaders by the SECOND CALL.

Here are his beaten lengths starting in February:

1 1/8M Sham .5 - 2.5 - 1.5 - 1.25
1 1/16 San Felipe 3 - 1 - 2.5 - 6.5
1 1/8 SA Derby 5 - 3.75 - 2 - 2

Certainly doesn't read like a one run closer to me. I don't understand where people are coming up with this?

I dont think he is a one run closer, anyone can study his pace figures and see that, he is a classic grinder though, and grinders cant run down leaders with soft fractions. The insane fractions and slow break dictated where he was in the race. He was back there with greelys galaxy who surely is not a one run closer.

[Fastracehorse]

I personally enjoy Andy's surliness.

I like the fact that he accuses trainers of cheating with illicits - nobody ( hardly anybody ) else would publish st like that.

I also think Beyer is a good handicapper - not a great one - and, I think the Beyer is the most powerful handicapping tool in the game. ( I had to say st controversial ).

fffastt

[Niko]

I've lost a LOT of bets on horses that didn't run their best or were prepped and won the following stakes race at good odds. It's a BIG gamble not to win any preps and save it all for the Derby. With full fields, uncertain pace scenarios and whole lot of trouble it's a risk I wouldn't put 100% into. What if the pace hadn't been as quick. What if Giacome ran into trouble and got bumped real good which could have easily happened? No payday.
About a month ago I came across an old article by Greg Lemond. If you don't remember if he won the Tour de France 3x?. He said one thing he learned when he was young was that he couldn't win as many races if he tried to win them all. So he used some races as preps. Now that doesn't get him in trouble because no one's betting (and he CAN'T bet on himself) but I understand the reason for it and expect some of it in horseracing. It makes sense for a smart trainer. Sometimes it'll hurt me, sometimes it'll help. Kinda like playing poker and trying to figure out if the guy's problem.
What PI**es me off, is a horse that's at least 5 lenghts slower jumping up to win for fun at huge odds and seeing the high fives in the winners circle. That's when I really feel like a sucker. Was it surgery or some other help. It's like throwing a joker into a game of Hold em and playing it when you want.
This doesn't have anything to do with Beyer but it fits.

[WJ47]

He didn't use the phrase "never had him as good", he used the phrase "never had him as READY"

Big difference, at least in my mind. And I don't think the post race interview by Donna Brothers is the only place it was alluded to that Giacomo was not being pushed all that hard to win the races he was entered prior to the Kentucky Derby.

Another thing that disturbs me is when a trainer uses a race as a prep for another race in the future. I remember a few years ago, there was a really good horse running in an allowance race in NY. He had done well and won a stake race and handicap in the past. He towered over the field in every way, speed, class, ect. The horses he was facing were a mediocre group too. The rest of the races in the pick 4 were contentious, so I used this horse as a single and put 2, 3, or 4 horses in the remaining races. Well, the horse barely picked up his feet and finished a badly beaten 3rd. Later, I heard mentioned on several boards that they didn't push the horse at all because this race was just a prep for a future race they wanted to enter him in. Sure enough, about 3 weeks later, the horse was entered in a stakes race at New York, and won like a champ. The dismal running line in the lesser race really helped his odds too! But I was aggravated by the whole thing because I wouldn't even have used that horse in my pick 4 if I had known that they were only having a prep. I can't even imagine how much money was burned up in the Pick 4 and Pick 6 that day because of this horse. Can you imagine investing alot of money in a Pick 6 and finding out later when you lost because of this horse and that they weren't really trying to win the race? It's just not right.

[tholl]

Another thing that disturbs me is when a trainer uses a race as a prep for another race in the future. I remember a few years ago, there was a really good horse running in an allowance race in NY. He had done well and won a stake race and handicap in the past. He towered over the field in every way, speed, class, ect. The horses he was facing were a mediocre group too. The rest of the races in the pick 4 were contentious, so I used this horse as a single and put 2, 3, or 4 horses in the remaining races. Well, the horse barely picked up his feet and finished a badly beaten 3rd. Later, I heard mentioned on several boards that they didn't push the horse at all because this race was just a prep for a future race they wanted to enter him in. Sure enough, about 3 weeks later, the horse was entered in a stakes race at New York, and won like a champ. The dismal running line in the lesser race really helped his odds too! But I was aggravated by the whole thing because I wouldn't even have used that horse in my pick 4 if I had known that they were only having a prep. I can't even imagine how much money was burned up in the Pick 4 and Pick 6 that day because of this horse. Can you imagine investing alot of money in a Pick 6 and finding out later when you lost because of this horse and that they weren't really trying to win the race? It's just not right.

I think you guys are making way too much out of this. Do you really expect every horse to be 100% fit every time he/she races ?

[tholl]

I've lost a LOT of bets on horses that didn't run their best or were prepped and won the following stakes race at good odds. It's a BIG gamble not to win any preps and save it all for the Derby.


Are you actually trying to say that Shirreffs/Smith stiffed Giacomo in his preps to get good odds in the Derby ???????????? :bang: :bang: :bang:

[PaceAdvantage]

Are you actually trying to say that Shirreffs/Smith stiffed Giacomo in his preps to get good odds in the Derby ???????????? :bang: :bang: :bang:

I didn't get that at all from his post. Nobody is saying anything like this happened. No need to twist this in a direction it shouldn't go in....

[mikekk]

Yes, by all means let's make it a rule that every trainer has to declare before the race whether his animal is wellmeant or not.

And let's have every track declare before every race which of the animals are in the race because the secretary put some pressure on the trainer.

Then we can have a 200-post thread when one of these "No-Go" animals happens to win.

Sheesh!

Mikekk

[PaceAdvantage]

Do you really expect every horse to be 100% fit every time he/she races ?

Absolutely not!

Still doesn't mean I, as a bettor, have to take it and say "thank you sir, may I have another" every time something like this happens.

I'm gonna complain about it, just like the guys on here complain about "super" trainers.

[tholl]

I didn't get that at all from his post. Nobody is saying anything like this happened. No need to twist this in a direction it shouldn't go in....

No, I quoted it exactly.

[PaceAdvantage]

Yes, by all means let's make it a rule that every trainer has to declare before the race whether his animal is wellmeant or not.

And let's have every track declare before every race which of the animals are in the race because the secretary put some pressure on the trainer.

Then we can have a 200-post thread when one of these "No-Go" animals happens to win.

Sheesh!

Mikekk

Nobody is forcing you to participate in a thread you don't find useful.

[PaceAdvantage]

No, I quoted it exactly.

Following the quote, you interpreted. But I'm not going to get into a battle of semantics.

I started this tangent, so I will say in no uncertain terms that NOBODY is saying that Giacomo's connections stiffed the horse in the preps to get good odds in the Derby. If anyone WERE to say this, I would immediately delete the post, since it would be libelous (not to mention plain silly).

There's plenty to debate with what has ACTUALLY been publicly stated by the connections. No need to invent a fantasy situation.

[tholl]

I started this tangent, so I will say in no uncertain terms that NOBODY is saying that Giacomo's connections stiffed the horse in the preps to get good odds in the Derby. If anyone WERE to say this, I would immediately delete the post, since it would be libelous (not to mention plain silly).

There's plenty to debate with what has ACTUALLY been publicly stated by the connections. No need to invent a fantasy situation.

Seemed to me that 'Niko' did infer that, but of course I agree that that is just plain silly and it should have been ignored.

[the little guy]

I think what the connections are mostly guilty of is saying a lot of foolish things. As we all know, there were about 12 or more trainers who going into the race liked their chances, and just because the winners claimed to have liked their's, is completely seperate from the results. They were so caught up in thinking they were smart because they happened to win that they got diarrhea of the mouth, and said a few things that in retrospect one would have to think they wish they hadn't.

It's hard to really blame them, as they were simply caught up in the moment, and if you win the Derby, I don't think it's so unfair that the moment lasted longer than a few minutes.

[PaceAdvantage]

I think what the connections are mostly guilty of is saying a lot of foolish things.

I agree with this statement 100% I wish these guys would just keep their mouths shut and allow me to remain blissfully ignorant as to what is really going on behind the scenes.....

[GMB@BP]

Another thing that disturbs me is when a trainer uses a race as a prep for another race in the future. .

I take it your not a big fan of Charlie Whittingham then. He would prep a horse in a grade 1 for another grade 1.

[GMB@BP]

I think what the connections are mostly guilty of is saying a lot of foolish things. As we all know, there were about 12 or more trainers who going into the race liked their chances, and just because the winners claimed to have liked their's, is completely seperate from the results. They were so caught up in thinking they were smart because they happened to win that they got diarrhea of the mouth, and said a few things that in retrospect one would have to think they wish they hadn't.

It's hard to really blame them, as they were simply caught up in the moment, and if you win the Derby, I don't think it's so unfair that the moment lasted longer than a few minutes.

Andy, here i thought you were smarter to listen to what some trainer and some has been jockey said about some future claimer after a race, cmon

[KingChas]

PA, didn't we have a similar situation last year when Azeri's rider hit the brakes(finished last) then after the wire worked an extra 1/8 with vigor?She then went on to roll in her next race.How bout the famous 1&1/8 to 7F angle?As for Giacomo IMHO this horse did not have an affinity for the Cal. tracks surfaces.Time will tell if I am correct.This (prepping) has been going on for ages.Only it used to be done a lot more quietly.We had to read between the lines before the race.Now we have to read their lines after the race.

[toetoe]

Hurts seeing my idols, Kreed and the little guy, dueling through insane fractions. WIRE!

Has anyone considered that maybe Giacomo won a fallen-apart race, yet retains good condition and improving form? I think it's the insistence on a decent price that leads us to naysay a winner, looking ahead to his next race. In some cases, we outfox ourselves, because he's still a decent # in his next race.

Possible title for new thread: Chill Out Keilan. Okay, just kidding, not bomb-throwing. Just think KDog is investing a bit too much stomach lining in the thread, could be growing a dandy little ulcer.

Oh, yeah! Kreed, if you cashed on Giacomo, I'm sorry you didn't eavesdrop my post to Suff, and then throw in Closing Argument. Small matter of a $4,900+ 'zactor. No brag, just fact. (Overlay, can you tell me the Western t-v series that phrase came from?) Mine ran 2-3. I pray you're just staying mum and carrying a big stick.

[MV McKee]

I wonder if people are misunderstanding what is meant by not trying to win the prep races.
The 90 days or so of Giacomo's derby preperations (and Shirreff's statements about that time period) had as much to do with the with the 88 days he didn't race as the 3 he did.
IMO Giacomo is one of a number of individuals in the current 3 year old geneartion that are very closely matched in inate ability. In a group without the type of outstanding individual(s) that can overcome these types of circumstances, race shapes, trips and other factors that play such an important role in races with lesser, more closely matched group of animals.
I fail to see anything particularly surprising about Giacomo's victory. But with the recent headlines regarding "milkshaking" and the whole Sweet Catomine (non-)story, a number of people have formed some sort of ill-founded mental correlation between the 2005 Derby and the overblown "incidents" mentioned above.

[kenwoodallpromos]

"a group without the type of outstanding individual(s) that can overcome these types of circumstances."
I call overcoming all that "Tactical Stamina" in routes. Maybe That is what Beyer meant by "outstaggering". I think the term I coined is more positive. :cool:

[Niko]

It was never my intention to even come close to saying they were "stiffing" Giacomo, that is reading way too much into it. Actually the opposite. There's no way they would stiff him or prep him for 3-4 races to get him wound up to win the Derby when the odds (chances) of winning it are very difficult. They'd be crazy if they weren't trying to win a couple of them. Paceadvanatge is right. If any of 12 other horses won they would have all said the horse was coming into the race as good as could be and that's why they won it. If the horse didn't win the prep they would have said it was a good tightener.
What I was trying to point out is that it's impossible to have a horse in it's best condition to try and win every race, every time. And even if you do it doesn't always play out right. Don't you believe trainers use tighteners from time to time when their horse isn't in top shape or they're pointing for a specific race? First race off a lay-off is an allowance and the horse doesn't win. Next race is a stakes and I bet the horse, doesn't win but comes back to win the next race. The horse may not have been fully cranked up or in top condition for the first stakes race and I lost my bet. After that race the horse runs a peak race and wins the next stakes race. I was a race too early. And it doens't mean the trainer stiffed the horse. He may have been trying to win but the horse wasn't ready.
sorry for the long post.

[CryingForTheHorses]

Lots of great opinions in this thread but as a trainer I have to agree with TLG..Heck their horse just won a big race and "Mikie" as exuberant as he is when he is excited raffled off a list of things to Donna as they were riding back to the winners circle,I know Mike and I also know he was very excited, Sure hindsite is easy to say and all the things he did say about not pushing him so he could win this race,That was just brag talk, Just like any owner who would brag about his horse. I dont think either one of them did anything wrong in what they said!.
Everyone puts their foot in their mouth sometime in there lives

Ps To TLG...ANDY=BEYER?

[cj]

Any chance of getting maybe just one admission that Beyer was dead on about Giacomo? The horse ran a distant third without being in the race at any point, and the pace was pretty quick as well, though not insane.

[Suff]

He took no part in the race. Non-factor. A 5 6 pick up sticks 3rd.

[cj]

Sign that the apocolypse is upon us!

I have to agree with TLG

[joeyspicks]

First of all Andy's to be respected for what hes done and what he's brought to the game. No question. His analayis of the derby was fine....his thoughts, etc...fine. What I HAVE BEEN DIGGING HIM about is his statement: first thing you do is throw out Giacomo. Thats just pure EGO. It somehow got PERSONAL for Andy on this issue. why ? Giacomo is the ONLY horse in the field (beside AA of course and the newcomer) who ran a respectable race. Where was the overrated Bailey and High Fly? How bout SUN KING (now THATS a horse to throw out in my humble opinion).

The point is there's been a lot of EXPERTS touting horse who have not shown a thing in the last two races....it happens. But these SAME experts have been running down Giacomo and hes run two "good" races!!:eek:

[cj]

I wouldn't call Giacomo's race "good" yesterday, non factor at any point for the win or even second.

And, Andy was right about Giacomo, not sure how you can knock him. You win in this game by forming opinions and backing them up. You look like a fool at least 70% of the time, such is horse racing!

[KingChas]

Any chance of getting maybe just one admission that Beyer was dead on about Giacomo? The horse ran a distant third without being in the race at any point, and the pace was pretty quick as well, though not insane.

In reality was he really not in the race or stuck(boxed) behind slower horses?Before getting around late?I didn't catch the replays myself just heard Mike Smiths comments.

[cj]

In reality, he was not a factor. Even once clear, he wasn't going much faster than Sun King.

[KingChas]

In reality, he was not a factor. Even once clear, he wasn't going much faster than Sun King.

So in essence your saying 3rd by default?

[cj]

I don't know about by default, I don't think anyone behind him ran a better race. He got what he deserved, he was third best, and finished third.

[joeyspicks]

as far being A "GOOD" RACE.....I MEANT in relationship to the OTHER horses in the race.

[chickenhead]

In reality was he really not in the race or stuck(boxed) behind slower horses?Before getting around late?I didn't catch the replays myself just heard Mike Smiths comments.

He and Alex were side by side on the backstretch, with Giacomo on the outside. Looked to me like Giacomo made it through traffic ok, no checks, just doesn't have much speed. I think the term would be he "clunked up" for 3rd.

I'll have to watch the replay a few more times...Greeley caught some bad breaks off to a bad start again but moved up well with Alex behind him, from one reply angle that I don't have it looked like Closing Argument kind of blew it going into the second turn, don't know if that effected anyone to his outside or not.

Alex was far the best, no doubt about that. Impressive move he made on the turn. I love Rose taking him back to the rail right from the start.

[KingChas]

Chick, I have to agree,I do not think any horse could have beaten AA yesterday.Would have liked to seen his stretch run (time and lghts ahead) had he not stumbled.Nothing more to say except what a Champion heart Afleet Alex has!Throwback to older days one tough animal.

[chickenhead]

Should give some props too to Artie Schiller..talk about a tough spot absolutely pinned on the rail for the length of the stretch, stumbles twice, gains the advantage and loses by a nose.

[Tuffmug]

Reread Beyer again all you Beyer fans! He was very lukewarm on Alex but really hot for Greeley and Closing Argument!