Mare Reproductive Loss Syndrome

[Bruddah]

I have a lot of respect for the assembled handicapping knowledge of this board. The question I would pose, isn't this a group of poor three (3) year olds? I ask this question because it is the first crop of three (3) year olds to race since the devastation caused by MRLS. If you consider the final time of the Ky Derby and the associated winning Beyer Fig of 100, it causes me to consider this group to be the worse group of three (3) year olds to run for the TC, in History.

In my humble opinion, they will stagger home in the Belmont, yet possibly have a Triple Crown winner. My personal belief is, Afleet Alex will win the Preakness but never get the distance of the Belmont.

I am curious what others on this site think.

[OTM Al]

I just don't think you can base the quality of the crop on the result of the Derby. There were some quality horses that will have hopefully good and long careers in that set that just got ate up in a wild speed duel. If you think of it, all Giacomo really did was run pretty much the same race he had all year. Just this time the rabbits helped wipe out his competition and he came chugging home in his normal consistant style.

As for Alex, I liked him all year, I liked him last Saturday, and I'll still like him next week. He's a good horse...not great but good.

I believe the effects of MRLS started to be seen with last year's group, but this year was the worst for it. That said, there are a couple pretty good horses that missed the derby due to injury that should be back, but that always happens. Also, the most exciting 3yo this year just happens to be a sprinter, Lost in the Fog, and I think its great that his owners didn't wreck him by trying to make him do something he wasn't ready for. And I must say, the girls look pretty good this year too.

I think it is fair to say it isn't the strongest crop we've ever seen, but to call it the worst is way too premature. There are a lot, even in the Derby field, that look like they are still maturing. Wait to see how many show up for the rest of this and all of next year before judging their final place in history. My guess is, pretty average.

[DerbyTrail]

On top of what OTM said, which is all correct, when is anyone going to bring up the stricter drug policy at this year's Derby as a possible explanation for sudden "regression" by a variety of horses from the super trainers?

All Giacomo did was run his race making a nice healthy forward move off his prior... Maybe everyone else that "looked faster on paper" isn't as fast when fearing a post-race screening of 300+ medications.

This is another reason that Shirreffs gets the big tip o' the cap for his work with the son of Holy Bull... And wouldn't it be the ultimate irony to think that Holy Bull, who may well have been drugged by someone pre-Derby, gets his retribution a decade later in part thanks to tougher medication screening...


(As an aside... About 1,500 foals were lost from this year's class. Considering that about 10-15% of all foals get nominated to the Crown and 20 of those get to the Derby, we could assume that perhaps there are about 10-15 (1%) really good runners that were taken from us by MRLS.)

[OTM Al]

Another good point there DT...and here's another one that I thought of as I read your post....super trainers. Makes me think of the ridiculously high prices getting paid for horses these days and how many of these big money horses are all getting sent to the same people....stables with hundreds of horses. Who gets all the attention.....big money horses owned by big money owners. How can these operations truly be giving the time and attention needed to get these horses ready? And if they are just focused in on a couple, don't you think there's a few others in their barns they aren't seeing for what they are (Ghostzapper anyone?) Do you think its any wonder that its been smaller operations doing so well lately? Names like Zito, Lukas and Baffert have practically become automatic bet againsts for in the last few years. Give me a Ritchey, Servis or Shirreffs any day...of course then again, after big successes, here comes the new boss, same as the old boss (to quote England's loudest rock band). I am thinking about taking notes after every derby from here on out about what I learned that year. This should well be part of it.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I understand Beyer's 2005 Derby number is based partly on the variant at CD that day.
I just looked at the Equibase Full Charts for 5-7-05 and it looks like a few of the races that day were won by 3 year olds, and some by older. 1 race was a 2 year old.
So how do you interpret G's Beyer as proving a bad crop when some others of the same crop helped get that number?
I do not know if there is a correct way to determine how good a crop is- I only hear subjective speculation.
Maybe Dave Scwartz can seperate his pars out by age of the winning horse each year each track and that can be compared.
If you are talking strictly about speed figures produced in top races, you may have a very good point. I personally do not consider 10 or 20 winners of big races as a "crop".
Do you have an idea if TC horses this year are beating each other in stakes? seems like that may indicate something. The big margins may support your claim.

[Whirlaway]

I would say the 3-year old colts are an average group, while the 3-year-old fillies are way below average. The Ky Oaks was the worst field in living memory.

[RXB]

Yes, that Oaks field wasn't much.

Best group I ever saw was '97-- the mighty (and, unfortunately, tragic) Blushing KD dominating the likes of Tomisue's Delight, Sharp Cat and Glitterwoman.

[Tom]

Maybe the profile of a Derby winner is changing to refelct the horse population. Too many races for a fondation may be hurting this new, more fragile breed. I am starting to throw out all the past ideas of what Derby winner should look like and looking more for a lightly races horse who has not run a big number yet. n retrospect, Giaco fit that description - just broke through his 2yo top and just getting into good form, going up against of tired, hard used horses, several of which had just topped out.


Buddah's got a good idea, there...that coupled with the onging changing of the breed by widespread use of lasix and bute, which make sires out of horse who never would have been breed at all 20 years ago passing on weak genes.

[kenwoodallpromos]

How are this year's 3 yr old sprinters? Lost has 2 competitiors in a $150,000 contest. Why is SC not a sprinter? Are they all going for richer routes?

[GeTydOn]

It seems every year everyone belly-aches over how lousy the group of 3yos are.