food for thought

[karlskorner]

www.handicapping.com

Todays edition.

True value of value lines ?
by Jesse Roberts

Karl

[Dave Schwartz]

Nothing earth shattering, but certainly true.

[Rick Ransom]

If you really want an accurate betting line you probably need to include actual odds as one of the inputs. Otherwise, your selections will always win less often than you expect when you find an overlay. As a practical matter, however, it's not necessary since you can just look for overlays that seem to be larger than they really are. Even just setting minimum odds on your top selection is adequate. You shouldn't expect to have a 30% win rate on your overlays though, maybe 22% at most (in my experience).