Preakness ?

[nick777]

6 of the last 8 Derby winners have won the Preakness, Funny Cide, War Emblem, Charismatic, Real Quiet, Silver Charm, Smarty Jones

In the last 12 years, only 4 horses have come from farther than 10th place to win the Derby, none of them won the Preakness, Fusaichi Pegasus, Monarchos, Grindstone, Sea Hero

Which of these 2 examples would you apply to Giacomo

[KingChas]

Nick, I'm not on the Giacomo bandwagon yet.But this horse is being dissed big time.At a price I will not leave him off my tickets (over or under).Maybe since he got off the Santa Anita speed favoring concrete surface he will excel.Remember his dad(THE BULL HIMSELF) ran well at every track except Churchill Downs.Maybe this one will love the eastern tracks-who knows?

[kenwoodallpromos]

Of the 4, how many turned out good offspring?

[TOOZ]

Charismatic paid 18 bucks and change in the Preakness. Giacomo will be at least 6-1. The value will be there for anyone who likes the horse.

[KingChas]

Tooz, I'm really starting to root for Giacomo because the lack of respect he is getting.If this horse has matured or whatever at the right time we might see an unexpected TC winner?I can see it now they (media & knowalls) will list him in history as (Giacomo*)ala Roger Maris in baseball when he topped Ruth.Andrew will write an article- TC races must be stopped now-this is unjustable.

Giacomo* 2005 triple crown winner

*=won triple crown didn't deserve it,fluke,terrible crop of 3 yr olds,something amiss
:lol:

[classhandicapper]

Giacomo has a few things going for him that the typical "major upset closer that took advantage of the pace" doesn't have.

Bellamy Road and Bandini are out with injuries. According to Steve Davidowitz Afleet Alex looked a little beat up after the race. Plus, even though I didn't like Giacomo in the Derby at all, I think some of his performances in CA were better than they looked. He finished 2nd to Consolidator on a speed favoring rolled wet track and had his chances compromised a bit by the slow place in the SA Derby. Finally, he was working gangbusters heading into the Derby. It's quite possible that he was improving all spring but it was well hidden by circumstances.

[Valuist]

According to Pimlico's site, the likely starters are: Giacomo, Closing Argument, Afleet Alex, Wilko, Greeley's Galaxy, Malibu Moonshine, Scrappy T and Hal's Image. Possibles are: High Fly, Noble Causeway, Sun King, High Limit, Going Wild, Flower Alley, First Word and AP Arrow.

I think the key will be how many currently listed as possible go. There isn't a lot of speed among the horses listed as "likely". High Fly, High Limit and Going Wild are the keys to the pace. Historically when there's been a fast pace in the Derby, the pace in the Preakness has been much slower.

[BillW]

Galoping Grocer has also been added to the "likely" list.

[TOOZ]

Chas,
If one likes Giacomo, why wouldn't one like Wilko also?

[nick777]

I like the value on Giacomo, and will take him in the exotics, but my WPS is going on Malibu Moonshine at a nice price, freshness+hometrack angle play well in this race historically.

[46zilzal]

In many ways the Preakness is the "cheapest" contest of the three and OFTEN is captured by a speed demon.

When you really think about it, NO WONDER the "triple" has been accomplished so few times: pace has to be right, health has to be right, (ask Riva Ridge's connenctions about the weather being right), trip has to be right, ability to stay on FORM carrying weight and going distances the horse's may never see again in their career's, ...even some VERY dominant ones missed the chance.

[KingChas]

Chas,
If one likes Giacomo, why wouldn't one like Wilko also?

Good Point Tooz.I for one underated some of the horses prepping in Cal.If any horse has a chance to run a big race at a price Wilko would be logical.The point I was making with Giacomo was If a horse wins the Triple Crown he deserves it.Toss out overated Beyers,dosage,pedigree,name,trainer etc....He earned it.

Do any of the math wiz's on this board know what the odds are of winning the triple crown?I'd like to know.(serious question)

[nick777]

Good Point Tooz.I for one underated some of the horses prepping in Cal.If any horse has a chance to run a big race at a price Wilko would be logical.The point I was making with Giacomo was If a horse wins the Triple Crown he deserves it.Toss out overated Beyers,dosage,pedigree,name,trainer etc....He earned it.

Do any of the math wiz's on this board know what the odds are of winning the triple crown?I'd like to know.(serious question)


lets see, 11 triple crown winners x 1000+ derby runners x 1000+ preakness runners x 1000 belmont runners

lets say 100 million -1, numbers may very by several millions, but more likely
100 000-1, if you do 100+ derby's, etc..., that don't seem right either, you would think the odds would be much lower, since the horsebooks offer less than 10-1 there will be a tc winner each year.

[Tote Master]

Nick777
I like the value on Giacomo, and will take him in the exotics, but my WPS is going on Malibu Moonshine at a nice price, freshness+hometrack angle play well in this race historically. I just took a look at the PP’s, and no offense, but I wouldn’t play Malibu Moonshine across the board with your money! KingT or no KingT, IMO it would be even a bigger shock then Giacomo’s Derby win, if MM even finishes in the money.

Lots a Luck

[nick777]

I just took a look at the PP’s, and no offense, but I wouldn’t play Malibu Moonshine across the board with your money! KingT or no KingT, IMO it would be even a bigger shock then Giacomo’s Derby win, if MM even finishes in the money.

Lots a Luck


glad you feel that way

then you take the bet and give me 2x the track payout

[nick777]

Good Point Tooz.I for one underated some of the horses prepping in Cal.If any horse has a chance to run a big race at a price Wilko would be logical.The point I was making with Giacomo was If a horse wins the Triple Crown he deserves it.Toss out overated Beyers,dosage,pedigree,name,trainer etc....He earned it.

Do any of the math wiz's on this board know what the odds are of winning the triple crown?I'd like to know.(serious question)


Ok, i got it

since it's been done 11 times in less than 100 years, the odds would have to be less than 10-1, around 9-1

[linrom1]

There won't be any value betting on Giacomo, he'll be the second choice behind AA.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Last race angle!

[TOOZ]

Closing Argument will be second choice. This will be a great betting race.

[kenwoodallpromos]

CA is supposed to be getting a slow work. Good luck To him in a shorter race.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Hal's Image's 59+ CRC work was a very fast one for that track.

[JackS]

Ken- I would accept the 59 as good at CRC if the work was breezing from the gate, handily as so-so, and without the gate, only mildly interesting.
We would expect that horses of this calibre to work faster than average.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Average that day- 5-14- was 1:03.4. 1 other horse was under 1:03. My point is they will most likely send the 2 wins in 15 tries colt and High Limit is wearing blinkers to get the lead- There may be some plans to set fast fractions again. You can tell Andy- I'm not! :lol:

[46zilzal]

I am going to be offered SOME LOGIC as to how work outs MIGHT effect running a week or so later. Running alone (no noise, no pace pressure) with little (stable mate) or no competition, usually under MORE weight than they will race under (WE WILL NEVER KNOW exactly how much) with WHAT equipment (we will never know) , under restraint or full bore, with /without "juice" (we wil never know) how far off the rail (we will never know).

Watching the jumping jacks the New England Patriots go through doesn't tell us too much about them other than they are EXERCISING.

[RXB]

I agree with you to the extent that people often make a bigger deal about workout times than they should. I do think that the pattern, distance and consistency of workouts can be quite telling at times, although some jurisdictions are better than others about reporting workouts.

But since you mentioned Wando in a thread recently-- do you remember his penultimate workout before the Queen's Plate? A mile in 1:37 2/5. If a Grade 1 older horse worked that fast on one of the pasteboard California tracks, that would be considered a fairly strong workout. For a 3YO who is about to face a group of Canadian-3YO's, working that fast at Woodbine, it was incredible. Relative to the competition that was about to be faced, it was the best workout that I've ever seen and it absolutely convinced me that he was a standout in that race. (5/2 when they started loading; I bet; he paid $4.90. I still remember that, too.)

[kenwoodallpromos]

"Jockey Edgar Prado will ride High Limit in the second leg of the Triple Crown. The son of Maria’s Mon also will wear blinkers, which prompted Frankel to predict that High Limit will make the lead."
"Also working on Monday at Churchill was Going Wild, who breezed five furlongs in 1:01.40, the 11th fastest move at the distance. The son of Golden Missile finished 18th in the Derby for trainer D. Wayne Lukas, who was optimistic about Monday’s final Preakness tune-up.

“I thought we had a good morning,” Lukas said. “We didn’t try to do a lot. Like everybody, you’re coming off a mile and a quarter and you don’t have to do very much."
So I assumed that if a horse works a bullet 1 of 20 maybe Hal's people want him to show a little speed. I assume DWL knows enough to take this statement at face value.
That is why I figured Giacomo Won't need a short work, fast or otherwise.

[kenwoodallpromos]

"With jockey Carlos Olivero aboard, the Florida homebred son of Halo's Image went out after the 7:30 a.m. renovation break and was timed five furlongs in 59 4/5 over the fast track. Hal's Image will be ridden in the Preakness by jockey Jose Santos.
"It was just what we were looking for," said co-owner and trainer Barry Rose. "It wasn't too fast, but we wanted him to keep busy and not meander."
If I remember right, the 2003 Preakness Santos and FC did not meander much.

[KingChas]

Probable and possible Preakness 130 starters as of May 15.

HORSE TRAINER STATUS
Afleet Alex T. Ritchey Definite Malibu Moonshine K. Leatherbury Definite
Closing Argument K. McLaughlin Definite Scrappy T R. Bailes Definite
Galloping Grocer D. Schettino Definite Wilko C. Dollase Definite
Giacomo J. Shirreffs Definite Going Wild D.W. Lukas Possible
Golden Man R. Dutrow Definite High Fly N. Zito Possible
Greeley's Galaxy W. Stute Definite Noble Causeway N. Zito Possible
Hal's Image B. Rose Definite Sun King N. Zito Possible
High Limit R. Frankel Definite

Preakness max field is 14.Odd horse out, which one?
Zito says all 3 of his are in, front page DRF.