CD Thu May 12 - Race 6

[RXB]

This one comes with a caveat. Yesterday on CD's dirt track there seemed to be a significant advantage for off-pace horses that ran away from the rail. Speed horses did not fare well; the early leader didn't win a single race of the eight main-track contests.

Marshman does his best route running when he's on or near the lead. He's also breaking from the #2 post with a closer drawn inside of him. So it looks like an inside speed/press trip for him. And if the track is playing like it did yesterday, that ain't good.

However, if there are indications in the early races that speed is doing alright today, then Marshman looks like a decent horse in this bottom claimer. He likes to win, he has a good record at CD, he's been showing speed against better animals and the opposition does not impress. I'll take 4/1-- nothing less-- at the gate IF speed horses fare well in the earlier main-track heats.

(P.S., there's a chance of a thundershower, according to the forecast. I rarely bet on sloppy or muddy tracks, but Marshman handles an off-track okay and there are no apparent big-time mudlarks in the field so I'd probably still make the play @ 4/1. As long as speed is holding okay.)

[RXB]

Well, the third race is difficult to include because of the havoc surrounding the spills, but after the first three dirt affairs I'm still not seeing much from inside speed/pressers.

Think I'm going to give this selection a pass because the recent evidence seems to favour stalkers from off the rail. Lots of races in the coming days/weeks/years; I can wait.

[RXB]

Interesting that of the eight dirt races today, only one was won (narrowly) by the early leader-- and it was in that 6th race. Sure looked like a good race for a wire job, which is why I thought that Marshman had a good shot if the inside speed was doing better today than yesterday. The jockey kept the winner a little off of the rail, though; Marshman was on the inside the whole way and faded in the stretch. Which is not to say that he would've won if he'd been off the rail, but it didn't help his cause.

No matter; I had no interest after watching inside speed getting killed for 12 straight races, and the odds were too low even if there hadn't been any concerns about a negative bias.

Anyway, that's 1-of-16 for the early leaders in the last two days on the CD main track.