05/11 PICKS

[formula_2002]

CDX 1ST #8

[cj]

Curious why you would pick a router coming off a year layoff returning in a sprint?

[formula_2002]

Curious why you would pick a router coming off a year layoff returning in a sprint?


Cj, “system x12..” does not specifically include or exclude such a horse. It just happend to be there.

The play was based on a black box method of play.

267 sample plays produced a large profit. 57 "out of sample" plays produced an even larger profit.

Incremental odds analysis calculated to a high confidence level (5%).

Use a completely different data base, the same “method” and achieved similar results... First time that ever happened.

I even seeded my Bris account with some bucks. Now thats significant!!

How many horses were "a router coming off a year layoff returning in a sprint?"
Dont know. But now it is part of a group that produces. Pehaps, in a larger sample they can be eliminated, or perhaps they can be bet.. who knows for sure.


Joe M

[formula_2002]

suf 6th # 2...

[cj]

Thanks, that is what I was wondering, if it was black box.

[formula_2002]

BEL 7TH #8

[formula_2002]

after downloaing 6 drf files from bris and running them through the x12 system analysis, there were but 3 plays on the day.
The number of expected winners required to break even was .21. ((sum 1/(odds+1) for the three plays).

A flat bet place bet returned a $4.00 profit for a $1. bet.

While the system shows a loss in the place bet (less then 5%), it helps to show some kind of profit on the day :rolleyes: