Preakness Figures

[cj]

Here are the Preakness probables and my figures for them:

All the figures (Race Pace, Race Speed, Horse Pace, Horse Speed, Horse Late Pace, Performance Figure):

http://www.pacefigures.com/prk0521.htm

Just the summary, with only overall Performance Figures:

http://www.pacefigures.com/prk0521C.htm

Hmmm, High Fly look interesting to me here.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I'm looking at "all the number" link, 5th column (horse's late pace?). G'a number is extremely consistency, others do not come close to consistency. What does that mean as to my Giacomo fractions in the derby being extremely consistent and closing well? I am very high on horses that do that.
Giacomo's 3rd number is usually lowest of all of his; I take that to mean he carries on regardless of how far back or up close he is.
Personally I am hoping AA is 1-5 odds in the Preakness, but if am reading your numbers correctly I will look for a futures betting outlet for Giacomo in the Belmont!

[DerbyTrail]

I'm looking at "all the number" link, 5th column (horse's late pace?). G'a number is extremely consistency, others do not come close to consistency. What does that mean as to my Giacomo fractions in the derby being extremely consistent and closing well? I am very high on horses that do that.
Giacomo's 3rd number is usually lowest of all of his; I take that to mean he carries on regardless of how far back or up close he is.
Personally I am hoping AA is 1-5 odds in the Preakness, but if am reading your numbers correctly I will look for a futures betting outlet for Giacomo in the Belmont!


KWP..

Unfortunately, it does mean that Giacomo's style is "run at the same speed" for as long as he's asked. Great for Derby/Belmont, not so great for Preakness (ala Thunder Gulch). The good news is that he has shown an ability to adjust to any pace scenario, from Saturday's 1:09.3 to 1:12 earlier in the year..

Given his likely peak physical condition post-Derby, and Smitty's confidence in him, expect a position spliting the field at Pimlico early and a move toward the leaders earlier than he made it Saturday. Hopefully that gets it done.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I also find it interesting that Closing Argument actually has a highr KY Derby overall number (105) than G's (104).
But unlike other people's numbers system, this is very easy to see because of the pace call numbers.
I am liking CJ's stuff more as I see more how to analyze and apply them!

[e_r]

' Hmmm, High Fly look interesting to me here.'

Hmmmm, very interesting

[rastajenk]

Has there ever been a worse set of numbers dragged into a Grade One race than Going Wild's?

[PaceAdvantage]

Has there ever been a worse set of numbers dragged into a Grade One race than Going Wild's?

Or, you could look at things this way ala Beyer:

First three career race Beyer figs: 70, 68, 72
Next four career race Beyer figs: 104!, 98, 100, 93
Next two career race Beyer figs: 51(wacky Wood Memorial), 71(off track)

I don't have the Derby Beyer fig for Going Wild, but I know it's not good. But then again, it was the Kentucky Derby.....strange things happen.

I can see why DWL is running this horse in the Preakness if he appears healthy. When you consider what happened in the Derby, with a horse like Giacomo, whose three Beyer's coming into the Derby were:

98, 93, 95

...then it's easy to see why Bob, Beverly, and DWL are giving him one more shot.

[KingChas]

PA, is the Preakness 6 furlongs?Thats when Going Wild seems to run into a brick wall.This horse is a sprinter!

[PaceAdvantage]

So you're telling me, that a horse like Going Wild, who BEAT the great Giacomo going 9 furlongs, and then came back to finish only 2 lenghts behind the highly touted DECLAN'S MOON going 8.5 furlongs (and remember, some on here consider Declan's Moon a key to why Giacomo won the Derby) is a sprinter? LOL

That's some sprinter.

I say, if he's healthy, he deserves another shot. He's done enough in the past to warrant it....

[KingChas]

Take a look at Going Wild and Spanish Chestnut's pp's.Were did they win and only win at a distance.Santa Anita-the speed favoring home of many sprinters that can get the 9 furlongs only at Santa Anita.All races were wire to wire wins.Might as well throw Buzzard Bays w+w win at SA in also.When proven otherwise I will agree-but the proof is on paper right now.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I will make my Preakness picks after the workouts.
All I see so far is the trip to Pimlico AA rode, G will fly!

[Bobby]

So you're telling me, that a horse like Going Wild, who BEAT the great Giacomo going 9 furlongs, and then came back to finish only 2 lenghts behind the highly touted DECLAN'S MOON going 8.5 furlongs (and remember, some on here consider Declan's Moon a key to why Giacomo won the Derby) is a sprinter? LOL

That's some sprinter.

I say, if he's healthy, he deserves another shot. He's done enough in the past to warrant it....

I don't see how anyone can justify running Going Wild in the Preakness. Do I hear $75000 Opt Claimer?

[classhandicapper]

If I owned Going Wild I would not run him in the Preakness. I understand the point of view of him showing decent form earlier in the year against Giacomo and being in some tough spots "pace wise" since then. However, to me it looks like he has tailed off and isn't going to have much of a shot in the Preakness even if he makes an uncontested lead. I would rest him up and look for some cheaper stakes than he can wire in the summer.

I would give High Limit another chance.

His Bluegrass wasn't terrible. The Preakness will only be a 1/16 of a mile longer. If horses like Going Wild drop out, he might find himself as the controlling speed intead of as one of many high quality speeds at 10F. If he's healthy, he deserves on more chance.

[PaceAdvantage]

Take a look at Going Wild and Spanish Chestnut's pp's.Were did they win and only win at a distance.Santa Anita-the speed favoring home of many sprinters that can get the 9 furlongs only at Santa Anita.All races were wire to wire wins.Might as well throw Buzzard Bays w+w win at SA in also.When proven otherwise I will agree-but the proof is on paper right now.

More qualifications, eh? Now he's a sprinter, but NOT at Santa Anita....LOL

So, your excuses as to why he's just a sprinter are VALID, but my excuses as to why he deserves another shot are invalid....hmmmmm......

Here are some more excuses:

Wood Memorial is a total throwout for whatever reason. Something obviously went wrong in that race, and since BR was winning by daylight, jock certainly didn't feel the need to push anything further....

Lexington - off track

Kentucky Derby - was a 1/2 length off a 1:09.59 pace....enough said.

All valid excuses to give him another chance, if he's healthy, which I must assume he is if he is being considered for the race.

Remember, he beat Giacomo in the Sham, and beat everyone else except Declan's Moon in the Santa Catalina....his career high Beyer is 104.....his career high Beyer going a distance is 100. Unfortunately, with the crew that is going to be running in the Preakness, this might be a very competitive number.

[cj]

Here are the Preakness probables and my figures for them:

All the figures (Race Pace, Race Speed, Horse Pace, Horse Speed, Horse Late Pace, Performance Figure):

http://www.pacefigures.com/prk0521.htm

Just the summary, with only overall Performance Figures:

http://www.pacefigures.com/prk0521C.htm

Hmmm, High Fly look interesting to me here.

These are updated now to reflect the current probables.

[GMB@BP]

I don't see how anyone can justify running Going Wild in the Preakness. Do I hear $75000 Opt Claimer?

I dont see a miracle turn around, and not to defend Lukas, but he usually is more apt to take a shot when its a bad field.