CD Wed May 11 - Race 10

[RXB]

Baby Needs Shoes' lone grass race, as a 2YO, was better than anything that her opposition has run as 3YOs/4YOs. As an added plus, that race was over the CD grass course. Also has a much better rider on her back today than in her other grass start. Comes in off of two dirt preps, same as she had before her first turf try. Trainer is competent; compare with the record of the ML favourite's trainer. ML favourite's closing power is also nowhere near what my heroine showed.

This one looks pretty straightforward; I think she's too strong in the stretch for this bunch. Battaglia has tried to help us with a 4/1 ML but there's no way that will hold up. Barring problems with physical appearance, I'll definitely take 3/1 at the gate on this horse. But she might get hammered down pretty hard at the windows.

[shamrock]

bad ride,too bad only placed win bet. thanks for the info.

shamrock.

[RXB]

That's okay. Tough trips happen. The main thing is we got 4/1, which was a huge overlay on what clearly looked like the horse to beat. (I thought she might get bet down to 2/1.) The race proved that the analysis was correct; she was tons superior in the stretch but was in tight quarters for too long and ended up needing one more jump.

If we keep getting 4/1 on the best horse, with jockeys like Smith aboard, we'll get the trip often enough to be way, way in the black.