Derby-Playable?

[betovernetcapper]

On Sat I had two solid opinions about the Derby. The first was that BR would have some pace problems. My second was that this race was (for me) unplayable. There were just too many unknowns- and I didn't have any really strong opinions on any of the horses. Upon much reflection, my mistake on this race was not in my handicapping of it-but in betting it.
Anyone else think this race was unplayable?

[saratoga guy]

I've always said that the "event" days -- Kentucky Derby, Breeders' Cup, and a few others -- make the handicapping much more difficult.

In any given race there are variables that are "known" (how the horse does on a wet track, how the jockey has done on this horse, how the trainer handles these particular conditions, etc) and "unknown" (first time on the surface, first time with the jockey, first time at the distance, etc). On "event" days the scale tips a little more towards the "unknown" side than usual.

As such, if this was a normal race on a Thursday at Aqueduct I'd probably pass. But because the huge pools and extraordinary exotic prices, it's worth sticking your toes into the water.

There were a couple of lottery-like payouts on the Derby and the undercard. And while NY's Take Five lottery game has win odds of 575,000-1, the Derby super offered 116,000+ different combinations -- and paid about 8X what a typical Take Five top prize does.

For me it's worth it to handicap the race and throw together some tickets that include some logical choices and some bombs and hope to get lucky. Even last year with the two favorites running 1-2, Imperialism third and Limehouse fourth, the Derby super paid $41K.