Beyer = SORE LOSER [Archive] - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Bobby

05-09-2005, 03:13 PM

I kinda agree with him.

"But the victory by Giacomo in Saturday's Kentucky Derby came as a crashing anticlimax — a race that will rank among the worst Derbies of recent decades,"

"Giacomo outfinished them all — and he's not even a stretch runner. In his three California races this season, he did not pass a single horse in the stretch. It would be more accurate to say he outstaggered his rivals. His final time of 2 minutes 2.75 seconds translated into a Beyer Speed Figure of 100, the worst for the race in at least 20 years."

Racing needed another Funny Cide or Smarty not some 99-1 longshot.

I'm suprised that Alex bounced so much. I mean I just knew he could get another 105 or so. But maybe 1 1/4 too much for him. Personally, I think Ritchey works him too much.

Two a days - That's in football and not in the week before the game.

05-09-2005, 03:16 PM

Trash Talking about the winner, thats what makes him a SORE LOSER

Would you rather he called him the next Secretariat? I think he has it nailed down pretty good.

the little guy

05-09-2005, 03:17 PM

Apparantly the originator of this thread doesn't like intelligent reporting.

$1000 says he loved Smarty Jones ( and probably Funny Cide ).

fouroneone

05-09-2005, 03:18 PM

Would you rather he called him the next Secretariat? I think he has it nailed down pretty good.

But its funny that he comes damn close to calling bellamy road the next secretariat, and then calls the derby "one of the worst ever" when his pick gets crushed.

keilan

05-09-2005, 03:30 PM

Would you rather he called him the next Secretariat? I think he has it nailed down pretty good.

Ditto

blind squirrel

05-09-2005, 03:33 PM

i disagree with him on slamming SEA HERO.he had won the CHAMPAGNE
and was the "only" horse from the breeders cup juvenile to
start the DERBY{if these aren't valid angles,what are?}....also,he later won the TRAVERS....oh yeah, paid
$27.00.{yee hah}

fouroneone

05-09-2005, 03:34 PM

he can call him [giacomo] whatever he wants, just dont call him the worst.

Because at the end of 10 furlongs, the horse won. plain and simple.

From 1 week before the derby:
"[Bellamy Road] has such an advantage in raw talent that he can overcome adversity and still win. I may have overlooked Secretariat, but I'm not going to overlook a potential superstar this time."

the little guy

05-09-2005, 03:37 PM

Some Derby winner has to be the worst winner ever, why shouldn't the actual worst one ever be called out correctly?

People who play the horses and are result oriented are losers. Just because horses win races with certain names in front of them doesn't automatically make them " good " horses, regardless of what you may think. Giacomo was a mediocrity going into the race, he won the race, and he's still a mediocrity. Nothing less, but certainly nothing more.

fouroneone

05-09-2005, 03:38 PM

Some Derby winner has to be the worst winner ever, why shouldn't the actual worst one ever be called out correctly?

Touche...........that is a good point.

JustRalph

05-09-2005, 04:23 PM

I don't agree with Andi on much.........but I think he got this one right.

e_r

05-09-2005, 05:01 PM

'By the way, as unlike you I spoke to him shortly after the race, I think he may have made money betting the race. I guess you would have felt better if he had simply bragged about the prop bets he made and won.'

was your conclusion based on a deduction or an extrapolation?

or perhaps, it was owing to your above average rhetorical analysis skills...

returning to the issue at hand, Beyer's explanation is dead on---anyone taking the time to watch the race a few times will come to the same conclusions

on the other hand, too bad he loved BR BEFORE the race

i.e. HIS FIGURES FAILED!!!!!

he, apparently/clearly, has taken it like a man

you on the other hand, feel the need to deify him

rhetorical question? ever have an opinion of your own, half pint?

wonatthewire1

05-09-2005, 06:07 PM

Greatest Derby ever?

Worst ever?

Does it matter???

They ran the race and Giacomo won; they could run it 30 different times with 30 different results but the end result is the one that stands.

One thing I could never understand about this game is the "desire" to label > you either had him or you didn't > and either way, learn from the experience. :p

RXB

05-09-2005, 06:12 PM

It matters if you might bet upcoming races involving the Derby contestants.

My early guess-- Bellamy Road will be favoured again in the Preakness.

Another early guess-- Afleet Alex will finish second or third in the Preakness.

Third early guess-- Closing Argument will not finish first or second in the Preakness.

CryingForTheHorses

05-09-2005, 06:16 PM

PaceAdvantage

05-09-2005, 06:39 PM

ever have an opinion of your own, half pint?

I just said it in another thread, and I'll say it again here. Do not fall under the false impression that flaming and name calling are going to be tolerated much in the horse racing topics.

ceejay

05-09-2005, 06:57 PM

Some of Watchmaker's comments, http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=64824
Giacomo's connections had a day they surely will never forget. The last thing they need is anyone spoiling their party, let alone making them feel like they have to apologize for anything.

The big problem with this Derby - and it is a huge one - is that it was run in incredibly slow time without extenuating circumstances. ... a Beyer Speed Figure of merely 100, which isn't good enough to win many high-priced claiming races.

Giacomo, who was eligible to a first-level allowance race going into Saturday, deserves at least a little credit for being the horse that capitalized best on the way this Derby went to pieces.

Secretariat

05-09-2005, 07:14 PM

Yes, looking at the early races on the CDX undercard, a 100 Beyer is probably about right.

Bellamy road may be favored in the Preakness, and why not?

1. He most likely will rate off the pace more if Spanish Chestnut is in the race.
2. I would think Zito will discourage High Fly from running.
3. The jockey will learn from pushing too hard.
4. The distance is shorter
5. Despite the pace Bellamy Road was in position in the middle of the stretch, he just appeared too tired, and he may like the PIM surface better than that of CD.

He may not win, but he certainly can't be disregarded. Who would you propose would or should be the favorite? Giacomo, Buzzard's Bay, Clsoing Argument, or Afleet Alex, or Wilko, or maybe Bandini who left his race in the paddock.

Regardless, we should all get good odds on our horses as I think the Preakness will be a good betting race since there are lots of questions from the Derby.

rokitman

05-09-2005, 08:04 PM

I thought this was one of deepest KD fields in a long time? When did it become a field of no quality other than the two favorites, as Beyers states? When did the prep race winners become "just a bunch of horses who had won slow prep races because somebody had to win them," as
Beyer proclaims? I thought the Bluegrass was supposed to have been a super-deep field. And the Wood a possible precursor to a second coming of various racing legends???

That's a ridiculous article. And the "sore loser" tag by the thread-starter is well deserved. That is exactly what it sounds like to me. Bellamy Road blew up in his face. And he's not big enough to say "I just was dead wrong."

I look forward to betting against Giacomo with both fists. It was a epic pace implosion. Nothing less. Nothing more. It happens. Unlikely that it will again in the Preakness.

BeatTheChalk

05-09-2005, 08:44 PM

1. Instead of telling us how " bad the horses are this year " .... take a look
at the Experimental Free Handicap for this year. Declans Moon was at the
top .. but guess who ranked just 4 pounds below him ? Did you say
GIACOMO ? Bingo.
2. Perhaps the Rating of 120 for BR ..was a bogus rating ??
3. Tell us how he made money on the race...when Only AA was even
mentioned by Mr Beyer. I guess he hooked up some of the bad horses
he talks about.
and finally ..when did Mr Beyer .. correctly identify the winner of the
Kentucky Derby.

the little guy

05-09-2005, 09:06 PM

I guess the greatest compliment paid to Beyer annually is the amount of vitriol expressed towards his columns, especially around Derby time, as many horseplayers somehow seem to believe his opinions should be held up to some sort of higher standard than their own. Guess what, they're all just opinions, and some of us have good ones ( whether right or wrong ) and many more have bad ones. And as far as Beyer is concerned, I know few horseplayers more self-depreciating than he is, often being the first to point out that the game has passed him by. Whether that is true or not is irrelevant, as it shows at least an ability to not take himself too seriously, something a few posters around here should consider for themselves.

I also think it's funny that people think that instead of writing an intelligent and well thought out post-Derby analysis, Beyer ( or any writer for that matter ) should humbly apologize for once again having a bad opinion, as though it is some sort of necessary act of contrition. Do these same people feel compelled to apologize to all those around them when they bet yet another loser? It's not as though he was pretending he wasn't wrong ( yet again ), but unlike his detractors, he doesn't feel it necessary to dwell on the past, as horseplayers must forever be moving forward while intelligently analyzing the past. Do the same people believe had he ( by some stroke of luck ) picked the winner he would have written a column about how smart he was?

mauvais

05-09-2005, 09:41 PM

Looks like a large element of sour grapes to me - Beyer was made to look a complete fool with his BR rating of 120 and pre race talk about the next Secretariat.........

Does Beyer actually make squillions out of this slavish adherence to his speed ratings?

Tom

05-09-2005, 10:55 PM

Beyer is probably fumming because his "120" ran so poorly.
Gia may or may not be the worst KD winner ever, but Andy certainly qualifies as possibly the worst public handicapper of the Derby in history. :eek:

Lasix1

05-09-2005, 11:44 PM

I guess the greatest compliment paid to Beyer annually is the amount of vitriol expressed towards his columns, especially around Derby time, as many horseplayers somehow seem to believe his opinions should be held up to some sort of higher standard than their own. Guess what, they're all just opinions, and some of us have good ones ( whether right or wrong ) and many more have bad ones. And as far as Beyer is concerned, I know few horseplayers more self-depreciating than he is, often being the first to point out that the game has passed him by. Whether that is true or not is irrelevant, as it shows at least an ability to not take himself too seriously, something a few posters around here should consider for themselves.
Truer words were never spoken, Little Guy. The irrepressible Mr. Beyer has done as much for horse racing and bettors as anyone out there with his literate columns, his refusal to accept the bloated Mandarins of the racing establishment at face value, his pointing in print to the drug crisis in racing, and his having the courage to put his opinions on the line year-after-year in perhaps the toughest race of all to handicap, the Kentucky Derby. Everyone knows, or should know, that the measure of a handicapper is not whether he ever picks a Derby winner. Self-deprecating? Andy is almost masochistically so. He's a breath of fresh air in the a world of arrogant, never-made-a-mistake blow-hards that surface every year around Derby time. A few of them have even been known to post opinions on this board...... ;)

TrackManSam

05-09-2005, 11:44 PM

After reading some of these comments, I am on my knees praying that Giacomo wins the Preakness.

rastajenk

05-10-2005, 12:44 AM

Andy deserves a Lifetime Achievement spot in racing's Hall of Fame. Seriously.

PaceAdvantage

05-10-2005, 12:52 AM

After reading some of these comments, I am on my knees praying that Giacomo wins the Preakness.

Funny, I was just thinking the same thing! Go Giacomo Go (new NTRA slogan)??!!! :lol:

PS. I am huge fan of Andy Beyer, and love all of his books. I second the Racing Hall of Fame nomination!

kenwoodallpromos

05-10-2005, 12:53 AM

kenwoodallpromos

05-10-2005, 01:00 AM

Maybe it is racing's fault that they do not have decent PR and let all the negative BS get out with no counter message.NTRA needs its own war room like the political parties have when one of their own steps in it.

kingfin66

05-10-2005, 01:02 AM

Ken,

It is a speed figure. Last year, Smarty was running on a much slower, wetter surface. Speed figures are based on variants, not raw times. It is very easy to believe that Smarty ran a better race that Giacomo.

kenwoodallpromos

05-10-2005, 01:20 AM

I would like to know Beyer's variant numbers for the 2 Derbys but I know you are correct. But he bases everything on actual finished Beyer numbers- that is why he was so high on BR. The low Beyer this year is why he is trashing this one. You are exectly right about the variant- and the Beyers variant measures the Derbys in comparison to the other races on the same days' card, not a variant comparing 1 derby to another- but that is the direct comparison hem is making.
Beyers is also saying AA ran a bad race and then seems to give the legitimate reasons AA only finished third later in the article.
"Churchill Downs put into place much tighter security at its barns and more extensive post-race testing procedures. The headline in the Daily Racing Form summed it up: "Derby Put Under the Microscope." In this changed environment, horses who had run explosive prep races didn't duplicate them"
It he has proof that any prep winners failed drug tests or was able to illegaly win their races he should put out the info.
Until then it is just another who gets paid to trash racing.
But who the hell Am I; He is the big name kissing up to and making excuses for the big names in racing.

PaceAdvantage

05-10-2005, 01:39 AM

Kenwoodallpromos (what exactly are you promoting?),

Are you feeling ok? First off, his name is Andy BEYER, not Beyers.

Second, I would think if you asked 100 knowledgeable racing folk, 99 would come back and tell you Andy BEYER is the LAST person who would be accused of "KISSING UP" and "MAKING EXCUSES" for the big names in racing.

Maybe you really are talking about someone else named BEYERS and we're all under the false impression that you meant Andy BEYER, the syndicated racing columnist and speed figure guru? If so, nevermind....

kenwoodallpromos

05-10-2005, 02:15 AM

Gee, maybe I Am talking about a different person- the oine I am talking about is the one who trashes the less pedigreed less expensive horses who keep winning derby after derby, the guy who said this year "California racing stinks" when asked about the chances of a Ca horse winning.
The guy who I am thinking of is this year implicating all prep races as being won by doper trainer with doped up horses and does not even realizing he is saying his speed figures look great in the races he thinks are won by performance enhancing means but the "dismal" KY Derby is the only fairly run one!
If trashing this race because it was not won by a big name trainer or owner os not kissing up I do not know what is.
Actually, I am not even disbelieving his speed numbers- just wondering how they were arrived at.
In another thread I said I believed some of the reasons for G getting a low Beyer(s) number was legit.
____________________
This is a copy of the email I sent to my mother-in-law the day prior to the derby:

From: ken woodall
To: (XXXXX)
Sent: Friday, May 06, 2005 4:58 PM
Subject: 2005 Kentucky Derby

I like High Limit and any above 20-1!

GMB@BP

05-10-2005, 02:22 AM

My problem with what Andy said in the article stems from the contradiction that he made pre and post race to explain the result. He said in his online chat that Giacomo had no shot, and proceeded to pick Bellamy Road. Fine.

Then in the colum he states that if the race fell apart and Bellamy Road or Afleet Alex did not win then its anyones race. Well anyones race does not mean no shot.

For the record, I have defended Beyer and his opinions as I generally agree with alot of what he says.

GMB@BP

05-10-2005, 02:26 AM

Some Derby winner has to be the worst winner ever, why shouldn't the actual worst one ever be called out correctly?

.

Obviously you are talking in the now, you dont know for certain that he is the worst derby winner ever, there are horses who never won again after that race. How this horse is worse then a few of those the past 131 years is a call I could not difinatively make.

Kreed

05-10-2005, 03:22 AM

05-10-2005, 04:13 AM

I'm glad Beyers does not take himself too seriously- but my concern is that NBC sports fans will as he puts himself out as repersenting all of us since he is the main one I see in the major media.
I have no problem him bringing up some big issues- but his writing is too naive' to ever have any reasonable balance to it and as a result it ends up being a hit piece against all racing.
I'm still trying to figure out how G earned a 100 when Smarty ran 1.31 seconds slower last year and I think his number was over 100.

First off, if you think Andy Beyer is naive, you have no idea what you are talking about.

Second, if don't know how Giacomo gets a 100 Beyer while the race was slower than Smarty, and Smarty got a 108 or so, you have no idea what you are talking about.

I'd recommend reading Picking Winners, seriously. You don't have to agree with the method, but its a pretty good idea to get a grasp on what most horse players are looking at, and that includes BRIS ratings, Thorograph, etc. They are all speed figures based at least somewhat on the methodologies layed out in the book Picking Winners.

05-10-2005, 04:22 AM

Andy Beyer has ZERO handicapping skills. It's all press release stuff when you
hear of his exploits. He writes great & hit the jackpot when the DRF picked up
his figs but if he had to live off capping he'd be homeless. I doubt he gets
more than chance winners.

Could you please explain how you know this?

I have no idea if he bets seriously now, but he made a very nice chunk of money for many years as a handicapper. You are comical.

Would you guys rather he just didn't make a selection at all? I mean really, how many of you guys bashing him picked Giacomo? Should he give reasons why 15 of the 20 could win? He is a bettor, he has strong convictions, its the only way to survive in the game. If I had to post my selections for all the races I bet, I'd look like a fool 85 to 90% of the time.

Did you guys even bother to read Steve Crist's or Lauren Stich's (biggest fraud of an "expert" in my opinion) chat transcripts? They both totally dismissed the winner and second place finisher, and I think Stich even threw out Afleet Alex. She actually picked Andromeda's Hero. Where is the venom towards these two?

I should note that Ms. Stich definitely knows her pedigrees, it is just that this knowledge never seems to translate to success at the betting windows, until of coure after the race.

JustRalph

05-10-2005, 06:39 AM

How can anyone say that BR bounced? Just because Beyer picked him? I keep hearing this........he ran as good as the Wood.........it seems to me. Beyer was right.........he was one of the best, but lost. It happen to Smarty in the Belmont, and it happens all the time.

I don't always agree with Beyer, but I think his methods are solid. I do like that he calls out certain trainers and owners...over juicing.......somebody has to do it. Nobody else has the testicluar fortitude.........

Hosshead

05-10-2005, 08:39 AM

Do any of the Vegas books/or online books, have a Preakness (short odds) bet where you can bet that the Derby winner WON'T win the Preakness ?

OTM Al

05-10-2005, 08:56 AM

I agree with Andy Beyer being in the Hall of Fame. He may not have invented the speed figure, but he made it accessible to the public. Someday the public may actually read his books and figure out what those figures actually mean and how to use them. Agreed that Lauren Stich is the worst handicapper out there publishing. Can't wait for her article on why Giacomo was a reasonable bet to win......Crist was just wrong. In a sample of one that happens quite a bit. He's still a good handicapper. Remeber, this is probably the hardest race of the year to handicap.

pandy

05-10-2005, 09:35 AM

Considering the fast pace, and the speed of the track that day, which was insanely fast, the final time of the Derby was surprisingly slow.

Pace Cap'n

05-10-2005, 09:44 AM

Do any of the Vegas books/or online books, have a Preakness (short odds) bet where you can bet that the Derby winner WON'T win the Preakness ?

See post #2 in this thread... (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=19928)

kenwoodallpromos

05-10-2005, 10:49 AM

I read the 2004 derby was run in 2:04. 2005 was just under 2:03.
Beyer again proved his writing naive' when he said all the prep races were the result of doping- his caveats are BS because this is a perpetual theme of his when his numbers are not predictive of future races. I certainly understand that he is not actually as naive' overall about racing as he pretends to be in his columns, or he would take himself more seriously.
I have read "picking Winners" an also keep a copy of "The winning Horseplayer" handy.

kenwoodallpromos

05-10-2005, 11:07 AM

From a pre-2005 Derby Post-
"Bellamy Road looked like he might be a very nice horse ( I think he still does ) and Afleet Alex seemed like a nice horse. The rest of them were just part of a bad crop." Funny, that is almost word for word what Beyer said in the latgest article.
I forgot- did anyone ever prove whether Little Guy was Beyer or just a clone? LOL! He must have a way to recieve word of threads with "Beyer" in the title, as the response is timed at 5 minutes later. :lol:

the little guy

05-10-2005, 11:07 AM

Light

05-10-2005, 11:09 AM

Tuffmug

05-10-2005, 11:32 AM

Andy Beyer is just one of many who don't acknowledge and understand that pace makes the race and pace makes or breaks his touted Beyer Numbers. He is a sore loser. Worse, he is a clueless loser!
He says that the pace was too fast but then comes up with the excuse that Bellamy may have lost because he was not seasoned enough. He has no understanding that the 120 Beyer he gave Bellamy for the Wood was acheived by Bellamy because it was the perfect pace for Bellamy. When Bellamy ran a faster early pace in the Derby his Beyer number fell. He did not bounce! Bouncing is the excuse of clueless losers. He mearly ran an early pace that used up his energy too soon. That is why he did not run back to his 120 Beyer.

The question in any race is not "Who is the best horse?" it is always "Who is the best horse for the pace and distance conditions of this specific race?"

Kreed

05-10-2005, 12:36 PM

I agree with you 100%. He's a sore loser. BR didn't know he was on trial
to vindicate his 120 Beyer. If only Andy only told him. RE: ANDY B. ***
YES I love the guy. he's Funny & Racing needs his tantrums & energy. But
he joins Charlsie Cantey & a few others. I know its not math possible but
I think they pick "worse than chance." Any Big Name race that Beyer writes
about he gets wrong. Sometimes, he picks against his own high fig horses.
At least this time he just ignored pace & distance.

RXB

05-10-2005, 12:47 PM

You can't handicap the KD with methods that work best in most other situations.

The typical KD pace isn't average, it's too fast. And unless there's a Euro shipper that ran in the Criterium, none of them have gone 10 furlongs. So, generally the off-pace horses have the advantage, which is contrary to most dirt races.

Here's another thing that I had noticed frequently before, and it happened again this year-- horses that have been improving, Beyer-wise, race-by-race over several races leading up to the Derby, usually don't do much on KD day. Greeley's Galaxy, Noble Causeway and Bandini were this year's culprits in that regard. Why this occurs, I don't know.

46zilzal

05-10-2005, 01:00 PM

I don't care if Beyer is right or wrong,he is one charismatically funny guy cause he puts his whole being into his convictions like when he punched a hole in the wall when he lost or declared he is "King of the World" when he won. He could do standup comedy.He's insane.
True ..good for the sport. There was a great documentary that included him on FRONTLINE (PBS) called "The Other Side of the Track." THIS guy bets large.

Tuffmug

05-10-2005, 01:04 PM

Sure he BETS Large with money he made by selling you his crappy speed figures!

the little guy

05-10-2005, 01:43 PM

Sure he BETS Large with money he made by selling you his crappy speed figures!If they really are crappy, AND, you know how to handicap, then you would be very happy, and thankful, that Beyer is misleading the public.

Unfortunately, I get the feeling from your posts, that you're not in any position to take advantage of the massive fraud he is, at least according to you, perpetrating upon the betting public.

46zilzal

05-10-2005, 01:46 PM

Sure he BETS Large with money he made by selling you his crappy speed figures!
I am one of the BIGGEST anti-Beyer numbers people alive on this planet today...Always say it is akin to reading a book by looking at the last chapter first....the "survival time" does not account for the interaction of the racers.

GMB@BP

05-10-2005, 01:59 PM

If they really are crappy, AND, you know how to handicap, then you would be very happy, and thankful, that Beyer is misleading the public.

Unfortunately, I get the feeling from your posts, that you're not in any position to take advantage of the massive fraud he is, at least according to you, perpetrating upon the betting public.

I cant believe some of what I am reading, the petty jelousy is a joke. Anyone that says Beyer is not a solid player and does not understand the game exposes themselves as clueless!

Topcat

05-10-2005, 03:27 PM

This time Beyer has it exactly right.

Like it or not, the KD is THE race of the year. It is one of just a few chances
racing has to gain fans. I've already heard casual fans say that they won't be back as the winner of the Derby proves that the races are totally random and they can get that sort of wager with lottery tickets.

Racing needs new fans and it won't get them this way.

Kreed

05-10-2005, 03:49 PM

Topcat ... I think most fans are licking their wounds. To most, the outcome
appears Random, certainly unexplainable. Yet, to many others, that's BS.
Just when Birdstone beat Smarty Jones last year ... we should not hold bettors
hands. As long as No Cheating happens, that's racing, and if 6MIL fans
abandon racing because of it, so what? As soon as racing presents itself
as an Intellectual Game first, and Gambling too, then Fans will come around.
In the meantime, all we know is that BR, the SuperHorse clone of Secretariat,
couldn't beat a rabbit.

Topcat

05-10-2005, 06:32 PM

Kreed,

I agree with that as long as there is no cheating that we shouldn't hold bettors hands. But I disagree on your statement that if 6 million leave racing it is so what-if that happens then soon there will be no racing.
Racing needs fans and betting $s to stay alive. Geez, I just heard from a regular heavy bettor who said that he is thinking of switching to just sports betting until the tracks come up with electric timers/sensors on each horse to record accurate times. He doesn’t believe several Derby horses’ times were accurate. Take out his $200k he pushes through he windows each year, multiply it and you see my point.

Several of the winning bettors of the Superfecta said they have bet it based on the names, lucky numbers etc. That sort of thing will not help racing. Why go to an off track site, open a betting account, or Lord help, you drive to a local track when you can get that sort of wager from the lottery at your local supermarket. That is why casinos prosper and race tracks don't. It is easier and more instantaneous.

I haven't seen any intelligent non-red board analysis that suggested this was anything other than a “sometimes it happens, next race please" event. It happens all the time-usually on a low level claiming race. Unfortunately this time t was on the marquee race for racing.

I do agree that racing needs to market itself
"as an Intellectual Game first, and Gambling too, then Fans will come around."
That is THE key.
This race just doesn't help nudge the powers to be along.

highnote

05-10-2005, 07:21 PM

Guess he has the last laugh being the worst derby winner..Guess what..He STILL won the derby!

That's right. That reminds me of what Charismatic's groom said to a heckler, when the heckler said, "He'll never win another race." The groom said, "He doesn't have to!"

The Ky Derby was the goal and Giacomo won. I think Giacomo is a better horse than a 100 Beyer Speed Figure says. Afleet Alex is also better than whatever his Beyer Fig is. Final figs are only part of the story.

highnote

05-10-2005, 07:22 PM

Some of Watchmaker's comments, http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=64824

If all the experts couldn't pick the winner of this year's KY Derby, why should we believe their post race analysis is any better?

highnote

05-10-2005, 07:29 PM

That's a ridiculous article. And the "sore loser" tag by the thread-starter is well deserved.

Maybe Beyer really isn't so bad at picking the winner the Derby. Someone on this thread said they talked to him after the race and he said he made money on the race. To make money on the race, he would have had to at least bet Afleet to show -- or else box Afleet with everyone in trifectas and supers.

So maybe he gives out false Derby picks in his articles so that he can inflate the prices on horses he likes?

If he can be cynical in his article about trainers using drugs in prep races, then I can be cynical about him having ulterior motives by giving out false favorites as likely winners.

I have heard of at least one public handicapper in England who bets his horses in the morning on Betfair before his articles appear later in the morning and influence the odds.

highnote

05-10-2005, 07:32 PM

highnote

05-10-2005, 07:42 PM

How can anyone say that BR bounced? Just because Beyer picked him? I keep hearing this........he ran as good as the Wood.........it seems to me. Beyer was right.........he was one of the best, but lost.

BR got the lead somewhere in the stretch, right? If the race ended there, what would his final fig have been? The pace was hot. So it would be interesting to know what the 9 furlong fig for the KY Deby is. It would need to be calculated like a final fig. My logic here is that the horses who were running well at 9f were probably running at peak of their abilities. After 9f the fatigue was too great for them to get 10f.

highnote

05-10-2005, 07:45 PM

Andy Beyer has ZERO handicapping skills. It's all press release stuff when you
hear of his exploits. He writes great & hit the jackpot when the DRF picked up
his figs but if he had to live off capping he'd be homeless. I doubt he gets
more than chance winners.

I stood next to A B in a betting line at the 94 Handicapper's Expo in Vegas. He was betting $60 straight exactas. I assume he is a fairly big bettor (compared to me, that is). I wouldn't say he's a legendary bettor like Pittsburgh Phil or Bill Benter. But I think he's pretty sharp.

Hell, he dropped out of Harvard -- he was smart enough to know he didn't need his degree.

creatureman

05-10-2005, 09:58 PM

Could this have affected his performance??? I think so, be didn't bouce to the moon with a fig thats towered over the others like his did

Lasix1

05-10-2005, 10:30 PM

He [Beyer] says that the pace was too fast but then comes up with the excuse that Bellamy may have lost because he was not seasoned enough. He mearly ran an early pace that used up his energy too soon. That is why he did not run back to his 120 Beyer.
No, Bellamy Road lost because he popped a splint, and my wife, who knows as much about caring for horses as anyone on this board, says that if he popped a splint, he was lucky to finish the race at all, much less win. While not life-threatening, it is painful and many horses get very lame for a time while recovering from this injury.

Given this inconvienent fact of veterinary medicine, I suspect that most of the anti-Beyer blather about Bellamy Road in this thread may now be deemed null-and-void unless the poster has a handicapping system that predicts popped splints. ;)

highnote

05-10-2005, 10:37 PM

No, Bellamy Road lost because he popped a splint, and my wife, who knows as much about caring for horses as anyone on this board, says that if he popped a splint, he was lucky to finish the race at all, much less win. While not life-threatening, it is painful and many horses get very lame for a time while recovering from this injury.

Given this inconvienent fact of veterinary medicine, I suspect that most of the anti-Beyer blather about Bellamy Road in this thread may now be deemed null-and-void unless the poster has a handicapping system that predicts popped splints. ;)

What if he popped the splint after the race?

creatureman

05-10-2005, 10:46 PM

Yes popped splint handicapping, someone should write a book...HMMMM????

highnote

05-10-2005, 11:05 PM

Does anyone know when he popped the splint?

Lasix1

05-10-2005, 11:24 PM

What if he popped the splint after the race?
Given the way he was in perfect position at the top of the lane and then simply stopped, that seems an unlikely scenario to me. We may never know for sure, but my experience has been that when a top horse fades that abruply, there's usually a physical reason for it.

creatureman

05-10-2005, 11:24 PM

zito says it could have happened during the race

http://msn.foxsports.com/horseracing/story/3605196

tholl

05-11-2005, 12:24 AM

Oh please, Bellamy Road simply did not have the seasoning required to chase ridiculously fast fractions having had only two, what may have well have been, souped up workouts. Immature horses pop splints often when they get overexerted and this was the case here. To use it as an excuse is lame (lol).

highnote

05-11-2005, 12:29 AM

Given the way he was in perfect position at the top of the lane and then simply stopped, that seems an unlikely scenario to me. We may never know for sure, but my experience has been that when a top horse fades that abruply, there's usually a physical reason for it.

I agree with you. But there are a lot of different types of physical reasons. To me, he looked like he was fully extended in the stretch, but very tired. My personal feeling is that he was not fit enough. It's too bad he's hurt. With a hard race like the Derby under his belt he'd be awfully tough in the Preakness.

I still look for Afleet Alex to romp home. The KY Derby had to be good conditioning for a lot of these horses. Giacomo and Closing Argument will be much fitter, too.

However, it's possible that the race took so much out of some of these horses that they will spit out the bit when they feel the pain of another tough race.

I remember running the 440 dash in high school. I was a high jumper (anerobic) but my coach needed a guy for the 440. So I tried it. I thought I was going to die. I had never been so tired in my life. I hit the wall about the top of the stretch and staggered home. I thought for sure I was going to vomit. My lungs were burning and my legs were so wobbly I could barely stand up. I ran the 440 one more time, but even slower. I was not going to put myself through that pain again. I was just not fit enough, arobically, to run that race.

I imagine some of these horses will feel the same way in the Preakness. The Derby will take it's toll on some of these horses.

That's just a theory -- not a fact.

Beyer is funny because on the one hand he wrote in his pre-Derby analysis that a horse needs a foundation to compete in the Derby. On the other hand, he writes that BR's 120 figure towered over the rest of the field and he should romp home. Those two contradictory facts should have been enough to warn people to bet BR with caution -- IMHO.

kenwoodallpromos

05-11-2005, 02:04 AM

Would you like to hear my joke about Beyer's remorse? It is about a peddler who goes selling goods door to door on a street called Bellamy Road. The Beyer gets his money back in 3 days if he thinks up enough excuses how the goods got broke.
Of course, the Beyer and the seller are actually the same person who signs his own bill of goods. LOL!

PaceAdvantage

05-11-2005, 04:29 AM

Given the way he was in perfect position at the top of the lane and then simply stopped, that seems an unlikely scenario to me.

If you gave a good look to his late pace numbers going into the Derby, it was an extremely likely scenario. One that put me completely off of him.

It wasn't a question of being fit or not fit....it is a question of ability. Going into the Derby, BR did not have the ABILITY to go 10 furlongs, especially against any kind of early pace pressure. No way, no how.

And if anyone thinks this is redboarding, then you should have been in our Derby chat last Friday night, where I not only talked about the likely hot pace of the Derby, but also the fact that I was concerned about BR's lack of quality late numbers....

CryingForTheHorses

05-12-2005, 06:52 PM

Funny, I was just thinking the same thing! Go Giacomo Go (new NTRA slogan)??!!! :lol:

PS. I am huge fan of Andy Beyer, and love all of his books. I second the Racing Hall of Fame nomination!

Well I do not know the man personably,I will say this from a claiming trainer's standpoint..I love to claim horses with a high lifetime beyer,When you can get these kind of horses dropping down in class, You can "patch" them up and be the boss for what you got them for.I have learned to respect a horses beyer that Andy gives each race as it has helped me.Hope he gets the award!!