capping HP

[skate]

ok;

the 9th at HP on sun 5/8/05, turf 5f, maiden for $45,000.

anyone that ran this race, can you tell me how "charm the giant" 7/2 chalk goes off the chalk? jock switch, fine, but not that much. maybe breeding, but how does the #6 go off as the favorite over #8, #7,#9, #11, #12?

i need a little something with this decision.

thanks.

[cj]

I really can't tell you why, but I've learned enough about SoCal to know in this situation, RUN! As fast as you can, find another race, just say no, whatever. I can't bring myself to bet these kinds, when a horse takes unexplainable money, but they win, a lot. Probably workouts or something, which are widely and more accurately reported in SoCal.

[JustRalph]

there are several workout sheets you can buy in socal. many in the watch and wager carry them with them. Bob Bedecker (from TVG) has one that is widely used. When a horse is working well.......you can get the info easy in socal.

I caught the the 25-1 shot in the senorita stakes. What a photo....that was.
I did not play the 9th........didn't like the odds etc.

[skate]

cj;

sometimes it only takes a little, thanks, and i'll keep that "RUN" posted.

justralph;


i did like his work pattern. and i ended up passing on the race,but i liked 5 other horses before the #6 who was overnite favorite and went off as chalk.
many times, after the race is over, i can see something that points out what i missed. this one was different.

the "work outs service" you refer to, are they similar to bris or tsn "clocker reports"?

nice hit on the 25/1.

[Whirlaway]

I put her on my Stable Mail after her debut. She's very well bred out of a stakes winning turf mare and they had interviewed McAnally (on TVG or HRTV) before that race, who basically made it clear that she wasn't well meant that day. Nevertheless she looked very good in the stretch after being covered up early in the race and galloped out well after the wire. It was clear she had talent. Frankly, I would have been surprised if she'd been more than 5/2 on Sunday. This isn't the type you expect to get a price on.

[JustRalph]

the "work outs service" you refer to, are they similar to bris or tsn "clocker reports"?


They are very similiar. The one difference I found is that some of them have some personal comments attached sometimes. I was playing at a watch and wager in San Bernardino on a Saturday and two guys at my table were walking around with a clockers report that had a note from a clocker who said he spoke with the trainer after a certain horse worked out. The quote from the trainer was something like " she will need one, no matter how good she looked today"
The horse went off favored and faded to 3rd in the last 1/16th. All the guys who were with me who had the report played others and made a little money. I am sure there were people out in the hinterlands who would never have been able to get that info.

[skate]

Whirlaway;

i take it from what you said, you into breeding more than i am and i think thats a good idea with the maidens especially.
i was off the race, do to first time starters, but i thought the #6 was over bet, plus it didnt make sense to me to have #6 "the overnite fav".
while trying to keep things simple, i also try to find out why i lost.


JustRalph;

ive checked out samples of the clockers reports. not sure about how many good reports would get me on or off a horse, but it would not take too many to pay for itself.
i try to keep my confusion to a minimum. not implying "they add confusion". i ve not given them a fair shot. plus, i play some LA. and ILL. tracks.


thanks

[Turfday]

I have been publishing one for many years with a great, honest clocker, Andy Harrington for Southern California only. Samples and info are at my website under my signature line.

[Whirlaway]

Skate, I think it's pretty axiomatic that 2nd time starters who finish well in their debuts after slow starts will be well bet second time out. Add to that the fact that she was the ML favorite and Bob Mieserski of the LA Times picked her on top and it's not surprising she was 2-1, low fig or not.

[PaceAdvantage]

Turfday,


Just because I let you advertise your free derby day stuff doesn't mean you have carte blanc.....