Why did so many good horses perform so poorly?

[how cliche]

It's worth asking. All the closers had the same quick tempo to run at. Out of those, only Giacomo and Afleet Alex had a chance to win. Why couldn't the others make an impact? How in the world did we not have a Monarchos type of explosion from some more closers besides Giacomo and Alex?

My initial assumption is because the field wasn't well seasoned as a group and didn't have the foundation to be more professional about their race. Any thoughts? Comments?

[the little guy]

Out of curiosity, what names comprised your list of " so many good horses ", because to me, there were very few good horses going in, and maybe less coming out.

Bellamy Road looked like he might be a very nice horse ( I think he still does ) and Afleet Alex seemed like a nice horse. The rest of them were just part of a bad crop. And they remain so. Though, if he stays sound, which is unlikely, Flower Alley will run some OK races, especially when he gets a new rider.

[plainolebill]

Position wise there weren't many deep closers in the race. Most of the Field ran as close to their normal positions as they could get and got sucked into a very fast pace. No gas left to close with.

[how cliche]

I don't hasve an answer to who is good. It's the Kentucky Derby. They're all supposed to be good. Lukas, Baffert, Pletcher, Zito, Frankel. These guys are supposed to have their horses ready to win. Why did they not even threaten?

I don't want to sound paranoid, but is it possible the Graded stakes comittee's new super test for doping could have played a role in the outcome? Are they all going over to the dark side and we just don't know it?

[BeatTheChalk]

The rabbit up on the pace did it. Of course....the tactic of using the
rabbit is not illegal .. and has been used in the past. So .. I think that
some presser types and some mildly Sustained horses .. had to get up
closer to the pace -- than they wanted to.
Then the melt down came. AA impressed me as did Closing Argument
and of course the winner. CA stayed right up near the hot pace .. and
still went on. AA did just fine .. had a few little hang ups along the way..
might have cost him the race. And finally Giacomo ran like he always does..
Come from the back. This time he made it.

[PaceAdvantage]

Speaking of rabbits, how come there isn't any shouting from the rooftops about what Michael Tabor and Company did with SPANISH CHESTNUT.

For all the shit Lukas took (and still takes) for entering Going Wild, I haven't heard PEEP NUMBER 1 about:


Tabor using Spanish Chestnut as a sacrificial lamb
All the bettors (especially the newbies) getting FLEECED because Spanish Chestnut was NOT COUPLED with Bandini in the wagering, even though it was widely known that SC was NOT in this race TO WIN!!!!!
How the hell was Spanish Chestnut NOT coupled with Bandini (this is a rhetorical question, I know TECHNICALLY why he wasn't coupled)? Forget about Sweet Catomine...to me, this was the BIGGEST injustice of the year so far....

It was EMBARASSING to me, as a student of the game, to hear the NBC commentators saying how Spanish Chestnut is in this race as a rabbit to set things up for Tabor's "other" horse Bandini, and then you see they are NOT coupled in the wagering!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

What a freakin joke this was. A crime, actually.

Racing can have all the pre-race test barns and milkshake detectors they want, but when shit like this happens right under the nose of the betting public (especially the less informed among us), then racing is still in the dark ages.

[kenwoodallpromos]

All I can say is the rabbit SC qualified to get in.
If you want to see rabbits eliminated, you have to change the qualifications.
Require so many wins- there goes Real Quiet, G, and some other winners who develop very late.

[PaceAdvantage]

Read my post again. I said nothing about eliminating rabbits.

I have no problem with an owner entering a rabbit.

My problem was that Bandini and Spanish Chestnut were both owned by the same folks. One horse was entered as a sacrificial lamb for the other. But they were NOT coupled in the wagering.

And aren't horses coupled for this EXACT reason?

Racetracks need to re-examine their coupling procedures, as they have slackened them in recent years, especially in graded stakes races.

It's unbelievable to me that people get all upset at Wygod, but they have no problems with what happend in the Kentucky Derby.

How much money was bet on Spanish Chestnut? Every single one of those dollars would have been better off being lit on fire.

This is certainly equivalent to what happened with Sweet Catomine, if not worse.

And again, this rant of mine has nothing to do with "rabbits." It has to do with the uncoupling of Bandini / Spanish Chestnut for wagering purposes.

[cj]

What I find hilarious is that some people actually bet on Spanish Chestnut. I agree with PA, they should have been coupled, or SC entered as a non wagering interest, though we know that will never happen.

[JustRalph]

I think the field should be limited to 12 horses...........

then this crap would be harder to accomplish.

[TOOZ]

I had Spanish Chestnut at 4-1 in the "leader at the mile pole" in Vegas. Lock of locks.

[KingChas]

Sure looked more like a greyhound race.They all chased that rabbit on the rail all the way. :faint:

[Secretariat]

It appeared to me that Bellamy Road rated back of Spanish Chestnut Ok, but Zito may have done in himself later when High Fly and Bellamy Road were pushing each other strongly after Spanish Chestnut was long gone. i wonder if he'll put BOTH High Fly and Bellamy Road in the Preakness. They kind of have similar run styles, and seem to push each other on the front end.

[witchdoctor]

They changed the rules for the Derby a couple of years ago so there is no coupling of any entries. Also there no longer is a field.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I assume that if there were field bets the winner would have paid a little less.
I see by the charts that the horse the least people bet on, SC, was 2 heads back at the mile while Bandini was 19th. I guess I just do not get it but maybe if Bandini had shown up or even won I would understand the coupling thing better than SC beating Bandini by 6 3/4. I would rather bet the horse that finished 6 3/4 closer to the wire. Bandini should have been the 1A if they Were coupled!LOL!

[Valuist]

I don't want to sound like I'm redboarding because I never could've had the winner. But the poor races by the majority of favorites was not unforseen:

1. Bellamy Road was coming off a giant (120) Beyer. But he figured to be one of many speeds and he figured to get hung out wide. That said, it was possible if he could rate he could still get the job done, even if he bounced to a 108-110 (I never thought a 100 would take this race). His race, when taking pace and ground loss into account, wasn't bad.

2. Bandini ran a giant T-Graph number in the Blue Grass. Huge, huge improvement over his Florida races. He also was washed out a bit. Regression off the huge BG number was a possibility. Another with a very wide post.

3. High Limit was probably the easiest of the big figure horses to toss out. Unlike Bellamy Road, he never was in contention.

4. High Fly had ultra consistent form but he figured to be near or pressing the pace, and he was right up there. Another pace casualty and one who some questioned about getting 10 furlongs.

5. Besides the milkshake testing, you now have much more comprehensive drug testing on all graded stakes at CD. The Derby wasn't the only graded stakes over the weekend with big prices. Is it possible some of the trainers may have been negatively effected by this? Definitely a possibility.

[cj]

Valuist,

I agree on some points, not on a few.

Bellamy Road ran nearly as good, if not as good, as he did in the Wood. The problem was the Wood wasn't as good, in my opinion, as everyone thought. I still had him the best horse, but not nearly by enough to overcome that trip.

Bandini - The only place that race would be considered huge was Thorograph. I honestly think those figures are taking a turn for the worst. Jerry Brown has some pretty far fetched ideas that I think he is letting influence his variant making. Anyone who wants to know more, he has a board on his site worth checking out. The maiden that won earlier on the Blue Grass card he made the second fastest horse EVER, just behind Ghostzapper. PLEASE!

Absolutely agreed on High Limit, who also seemed to be the Horse De Jour of the Thorograph crowd for some unknown reason.

I think High Fly ran solid, but the pace gave him little chance. Looking at the field, his only chance was to come from well off the pace, and he'd never done that before.

I totally agree on the drug testing. As I've said elsewhere, we can't prove those guys are juicing, but ever since the Mullins detention incident, it is DEFINITELY the way to bet, until proven otherwise.

Any chance you are coming to Saratoga? I truly enjoy your insights!

[Valuist]

Small chance I might be going to Saratoga. There's a chance I may try to get out there and hit Cooperstown as well as the racing HOF. I'm trying to talk my daughter into it but she's not real crazy about it. Some possibility I might go on my own but can't say for sure.

Agree on JB. I think you're talking about Northern Stag. The only possible credence I put into the Bandini number was that on paper I thought the BG was stronger than the Wood or Arky Derby. I know the BG horses ran (or shall I say finished) poorly in the Derby. Bandini was as big a bounce as I can recall.

[Bobby]

I totally agree on the drug testing. As I've said elsewhere, we can't prove those guys are juicing, but ever since the Mullins detention incident, it is DEFINITELY the way to bet, until proven otherwise.




Cj or valuist, what do you mean? Betting against the top trainers b/c they could've milkshaked their horses.

[cj]

Yes Bobby, but I don't think its milkshakes. Whatever it is these guys are using, they were unable to at Churchill due to pre race testing and 24 hour security in the barns for all Graded Stakes participants.

Sis City is so obvious it is almost crazy, she had no run whatsoever for such a strong favorite.

I don't put Madcap Escapade in this category, because she has a long history of physical problems and probably went wrong again. That, and the race was VERY slow early and yet she still packed it in.

[Bobby]

yea, sis city is the one that was claimed from asmussen for $50,000 and then turned into G1 winner with Beyers that were much superior to the Oaks field.

[46zilzal]

Absolutely agreed on High Limit, who also seemed to be the Horse De Jour of the Thorograph crowd for some unknown reason.

That one had consistent, although NOT TOO dominant, deceleration lines..the thing one would want to see at this distance.

[cj]

The thing I would want to see is a single horse come out of the Louisiana Derby that would even inidicate the race was anything but a fraud.

Also, I don't know how it is even remotely possible to say he had consistent deceleration lines, his two routes were miles by my measurements.

In the La Derby, I had him going Pace 103 Speed 105, in the Bluegrass, Pace 116 Speed 92. That is not what I would call consistent.

You aren't going to throw out these nuggets as gospel without a little debate. ;)

[Valuist]

CJ-

I just saw a few threads on the T-Graph board and some of the posts were absolutely amazing. A couple actually saying pace wasn't that big a factor in the Derby. The funniest one of all must've been the guy complaining about a losing bet on....get this....Came Home. It's only been what, 4 or 5 years and he's upset about a losing bet that wasn't a photo or DQ half a decade ago? I would recommend therapy for that guy (no, it wasn't the Beyer Guy's post).

[cj]

I saw that Came Home one, I didn't have a clue what to say to that. I still don't know what he's talking about!

[Tom]

OK, so some tell me how to bet an honest race!
Yikes! Who'd a thunk this would ever happen! :eek:

[RXB]

OK, so some tell me how to bet an honest race!
Yikes! Who'd a thunk this would ever happen! :eek:

:D

We'll have to remember how we handicapped before all of these 25-30% trainers started popping up.

(There are two trainers in NoCal... it's just so damn obvious, it makes me sick.)

[46zilzal]

You aren't going to throw out these nuggets as gospel without a little debate. ;)
Gospel?,,,don't believe in ANY gospel. Decleration lines are calcualted (in the way I use them) INDEPENDENT of speed ratings so they can be similar while the speed rating differs..One often sees some of the SLOWEST horses in a fileld have the best deceleration lines, or anywhere in between.

[GMB@BP]

Valuist,

I agree on some points, not on a few.

Bellamy Road ran nearly as good, if not as good, as he did in the Wood. The problem was the Wood wasn't as good, in my opinion, as everyone thought. I still had him the best horse, but not nearly by enough to overcome that trip.

Bandini - The only place that race would be considered huge was Thorograph. I honestly think those figures are taking a turn for the worst. Jerry Brown has some pretty far fetched ideas that I think he is letting influence his variant making. Anyone who wants to know more, he has a board on his site worth checking out. The maiden that won earlier on the Blue Grass card he made the second fastest horse EVER, just behind Ghostzapper. PLEASE!

Absolutely agreed on High Limit, who also seemed to be the Horse De Jour of the Thorograph crowd for some unknown reason.

I think High Fly ran solid, but the pace gave him little chance. Looking at the field, his only chance was to come from well off the pace, and he'd never done that before.

I totally agree on the drug testing. As I've said elsewhere, we can't prove those guys are juicing, but ever since the Mullins detention incident, it is DEFINITELY the way to bet, until proven otherwise.

Any chance you are coming to Saratoga? I truly enjoy your insights!

their hyping him on the site right now for a preakness play....go figure...of course the reason he did not run back to his sheet number was the security, it had nothing to do with the pace, nothing

[PaceAdvantage]

I think some folks are letting all this media hype of juicing/milkshaking affect their handicapping way too much. Just my opinion.....

[cj]

Gospel?,,,don't believe in ANY gospel. Decleration lines are calcualted (in the way I use them) INDEPENDENT of speed ratings so they can be similar while the speed rating differs..One often sees some of the SLOWEST horses in a fileld have the best deceleration lines, or anywhere in between.

This horse decelerated a lot more at Keeneland than he did at the Fair Grounds by any measurement I can think of, perhaps you'd like to share?

[46zilzal]

You are assuming. Don't count TROUBLED lines (when this one bobbled). 2nd and third back showed the same deceleration, but the velocity was not highly ranked as compared to the field at Chruchill on Saturday

[cj]

OK, I see now, though I would disagree that bobble was actually trouble, but that is what makes this game so great.

[Macdiarmadillo]

Reports from the track said Bandini was pretty much washed out in the saddling stall and was wiped down. Wilko apparently bled.

Aside from the early pace casualties, Greely's Galaxy's poor start, Noble Causeway/Coin Silver's bump early, could we guess that most of the rest weren't good for a mile and a quarter? We'll see from the Preakness if distance limitation is the thing for some or most of these.

Further, horses that were late for Derby consideration (Flower Alley, High Limit, Sun King, for three) had light schedules going in. They didn't seem to be pure grinders running all 24 second splits, therefore more "bottom" might have been necessary and the prep time just ran out. Must've been a reason for all those prep races in days gone by and there's been all kinds of criticism for the Dubai sheiks training too lightly for the Derby--they've done badly. Then, we should see better/more consistent performances later in the year from this bunch as they get more of a foundation.

It's probably the unpopular thing to say here, but I saw Bellamy Road as a big bounce candidate going in. Now if he had run like 5 races from December to May, I would look for a minor bounce and he'd have been a win candidate for me. Closing Argument's case then can be made by his number of races as a 2yo (though only 2 races at 3), and for Spanish Chestnut's number of preps -- he did not finish dead last.

There have been reports that Afleet Alex was being run in 5 MILE workouts just before the big race. If true, well, that's just plain dumb IMHO. We'll see how he does in the Preakness. If he's scratched, one guess why?

Mentioned elsewhere: has anyone considered Giacomo wasn't cranked up for ANY of his preps? Didn't see him before the Derby, but he never looked to be particularly on-the-muscle in the SA prep. Kind of odd for a Shirreffs horse, thinking about that. Most trainers do save something for the Derby, but try to win along the way to qualify; but the original plan to save as much horse for the Derby may be compromised there. Again, what Giacomo does in the Preakness would settle this. Of course, we want to know how legit he is before that race. LOL!

So I hope cj will post his Derby pace figs either here or on his site so that we can compare losers and winners. Giacomo's usual style seemed to be as a presser, not the way he ran in the Derby. The figs might tell us if he's just a grinder or if he is a full-fledged racehorse that can adapt style, and that his final time fig was a result of the early pace.

[cj]

I'll post, I think I'm settling on the Derby at 123-101, it may go a point in either direction, so that will be right in the neighborhood.

[classhandicapper]

I think the drug testing issue is very important and could have an impact on a lot of the "move up" trainers going forward.

However, I have problem with an analysis that suggests that all the horses trained by Zito, Pletcher, and Frankel ran terribly because of drug testing and excludes "move up trainers" like McLaughlin and Ritchey because of X-files like scenarios where they might have been snuck into other barns to be washed.

IMHO:

1. Bellamy Road ran reasonably well considering the pace/wide scenario and being untested until the Derby.

2. High Fly ran well within expectations given the pace and questions about 10F.

3. Coin Silver ran within expectations given his fastest race was on a wet track.

4. Flower Alley probably ran better than expectations given the pace.

5. Andromeda's Hero ran within expectations given that few people had any.

That leaves Noble Causway, Bandini, and High Limit. At least 2 of the 3 probably had problems/excuses that go far beyond whether or not they were running on high test even if we can't pin them down.

If you include McLaughlin (who I think uses the same vet as the others) and Ritchey, Afleet Alex ran within expectations and Closing Argument exceeded expectations.

I don't see how you can conclude that drug testing was a major issue in this Derby. It might have been, but's there's not a lot of evidence of it.

[fouroneone]

Instead of asking "why did so many good horses do poor and poor horses do good" why dont you all ask:

"why did so many good handicappers do poor and poor handicappers do good?!?!?!"

[Macdiarmadillo]

This is one race and it's one day of racing. For considering what's a "good handicapper", I'd ask what that person's done over the course of a year. A player's Derby win is only good for bragging rights for the following 12 months anyway (longer if you actually handicapped and hit the super!) As for good handicappers, what I don't see here and elsewhere is complaints on losing on the undercard(s); the pace guys must have done well there. I'd sure be happy by losing the Derby but walking away with a positive return from other races.

At 50-1 it looks to me that good and bad handicappers bit the big one proportionately. Giacomo's exercise rider bet a hundred to win on him, apparently; I don't think that was necessarily smart money or stupid money.