WAR EMBLEM

[rrbauer]

With just two days until D-Day, I haven't seen boo in any of the media in the way of comments by Baffert about how this colt is doing. Usually when BB likes what he sees, he tells the world about it.

Anyone seen/heard anything from the Baffert camp on the 'Emblem?

[JustRalph]

I saw the workouts that WE put up the last two weeks. He looked great to me. He had his ears pulled back and looked to be enjoying it. 48 for 5 furlongs. He looks as good or better to me, than he did at the ILL. Derby. I made money on him there. I think he just might improve a couple of points on the Beyer number. If Baffert is going to run Danthebluegrassman out front for a killer pace.......War Emblem could be sitting pretty.

[rrbauer]

According to Ralph:

48 for 5 furlongs.

Yes Virginia, there is a Santa Claus. You can tell by the big, red "S" on his saddle cloth!

[JustRalph]

I cut and pasted it.......its wrong....change it to 4 or whatever....you guys don't miss a thing do ya......

[andicap]

Ralph, what makes you think War Emblem CAN sit back. Most likely scenario is he goes for the lead -- because that's where he's most comfortable and either doesn't stop or tires and finishes in back of the pack.
Very tough to change a horses running style, though it can be done with younger horses.
Only way WE can win is
a) track is souped up for a speed bias like in the Breeders Cup a couple of years ago.

b) Pace duel doesn't materialize.

It's possible the track will have a bias: with rain expected in the morning they will likely "seal" the track. That often creates a front-running bias. the trouble is the bias can change mid-day if they harrow the track in mid-afternoon.

[Doug]

BAFFERT WAS INTERVIEWED YESTERDAY ON FOX SPORTS AND WHEN ASKED WHO HE THOUGHT WOULD WIN THE DERBY HE (WITHOUT ANY HESITATION) MENTIONED THAT WAR EMBLEM HAD A BIG BIG SHOT. WITH A STRAIGHT FACE HE TOLD LONGSHOT PLAYERS THAT THIS WAS THE BET.

[JustRalph]

I am not sure a pace Duel is going to develop. I think they can keep him off the lead if they want. I think Dantheblgrsman will probably play rabbit or Baffert wouldn't have put him in. There are a few other horses that can run up front just as fast or faster than WE. Now that Buddha is out I don't know what the pace will be like. I thought he would be up forward. But I think Espinoza can rate WE well. I just think he is being overlooked when he is probably just as good as anybody in the field. Based on his improving one more race that is. If a pace scenario develops like last year, and he is involved, he is toast. But I would say he would have a better chance than Balto Star or Song and a prayer had last year. If he improves again, he has a big shot. If not, he is subject to the pace scenario. He is libel to go off at big odds too. This gives him big time value. That being said, he will probably be up the track so far he will be out of the TV picture......then I think it would be Frankel's Derby. Or Assmussen's. The fact that 19 horses are starting makes this nothing but a traffic/Trip race anyway.

[rrbauer]

I think that WE has to go on from the break. Coming out of the 5-hole he needs to clear what's inside and keep from getting shuffled back by the outside horses coming over. So he makes the lead, gets the rail and it becomes a "catch me" prop. If he wasn't coming off a double top and picking up 12 lbs, I would back him in a heartbeat. I think that either he wins; or, is up the track. I need 15-1 for a modest win bet.

[JustRalph]

I agree with your post. But I don't think he has to clear a big lead. I think if rated well he will have enough in the end. But if Espinoza lets him run.......he probably cannot hang on.

[tanda]

I am not sure why Danthebluegrassman would be used as a rabbit for War Emblem. A front-runner does not need or want a rabbit.

I also am not sure why everybody keeps talking about a fast pace. Compared to recent years, the pace appears to be average or even a tad below average.

There is only one "need to lead" type in the race: War Emblem.

Yes, there are many E/P types. So what. It is a 19 horse field and among high quality horses the E/P type is the most common. There should be several in the field.

With Mayakovsky and Buddha not going, that helps War Emblem. Proud Citizen and DTBGM hurt a bit. I just can't believe how everybody perceives this as a fast pace race. Last year, there were several E types (Songandaprayer, Balto Star, Keats) and a few really fast E/P types (Millenium Wind, Congaree). I think I have missed a few others.

Came Home, etc. will give an honest pace, but I see no reason why this Derby could not be won wire to wire.

[so.cal.fan]

There is only one "need to lead" type in the race: War Emblem.


He got it!

[JustRalph]

Nice race......It went just like I hoped it would. I thought he would be rated well and he was. I am getting phone calls from everybody I told to play him. Some of them didn't....shame on em. I just wish the previous owners would have held on to him.

[Tom]

Congratualtions to everyone who piked him - I sure didn't and wouldn't play him on the replay either ~G~
I feel soory for all the owners who have to pays a bunch of jockey fees to a bunch of duds who never did a thing at any point in the race.

[tdthomas]

I agree with you justralph, except that the previous connections were going to run him in the Preakness and not in the Derby. The race went exactly as I imagined except for Proud Citizen. Broke up a nice exacta and trifecta. At least the win money was very generous. I never checked, because I didn't like Came Home or Harlan's Holiday, but was the favorite 6-1? (might have been Saarland) Only day better than Derby Day is Breeders Cup Day!

[tdthomas]

There is a great picture of War Emblem in the DRF. Not sure if he is just real proud of himself or if he is laughing at the fools who sent him off at 20-1.

[JimG]

Originally posted by tdthomas
There is a great picture of War Emblem in the DRF. Not sure if he is just real proud of himself or if he is laughing at the fools who sent him off at 20-1.

2 posts in 10 minutes touting War Emblem "after the race" Funny, I missed your post touting him prior to the race.


Jim

(one of the fools who sent him off at 20-1)

[tdthomas]

Sorry, I don't usually tout horses I am going to bet. Next time there is a big race that I won't be betting, I will let you know who I like.

[tdthomas]

And I don't mean any offense to anyone who didn't like War Emblem. I just loosely call the nameless faceless crowd who don't bet horses I like "fools". When they do bet horses I like, I call them "A-holes". I probably should not have posted that here. I am sorry if anyone was offended, usually its just something I say between myself and my friends. It usually just reflects my frustration when people are betting "my" horses or my joy when they are not.

[smf]

TDThomas,

Didn't you pick Medaglia D'Oro and Saarland just yesterday in the contest at nola.com? Please correct me if I'm wrong.

[anotherdave]

23.1, :47, 1:11.3, 1:36.3, 2:01

23.1 23.4 24.3 25.0 24.2

That was a nice rating job. Lots left in the tank to do 24.2 down the last 1/4. Unfortunately for the rest of horses.(including mine)

AD

[Richard]

Call me a braggart if you will,but my only regret is that I only bet $2 on WAR EMBLEM.

[tdthomas]

smf, I have never been to nola.com. However, I did like Medaglia D'oro and Perfect Drift. I thought Saarland was a true longshot.

[JustRalph]

You Right.....I changed the original post. After re-reading what you said....I realize that I didn't see the other post. Mea-Culpa.

I admit when I am wrong. Thanks

[tdthomas]

Ralph, I don't know why you are taking offense. I said nothing there directed towards you. I KNOW you were on War Emblem all week. I read your posts and almost replied. I pretty much agreed with everything you said.

[Kentucky Bred]

Your not going to catch me saying that I had War Emblem or Proud Citzen. To me, both of the horses were the easiest of the throw-outs. That's just the way I saw it. It has been a long time before we have seen anything coming from the Ill. Derby dominating at Churchill. And Proud Citizen followed him all the way around after NOT getting the lead. Un-believable, but it happened.

I know it sounds like sour grapes but truthfully, we will never be able to measure the impact of Buddha's scratch. There could be no way War Emblem could have made the lead like that with Buddha breathing on him. For those two horses to run like that in wire to wire fashion without a closer making a move, was most improbable. That's how you win a $18,000 tri.

I kind of feel a bit sad inside though(thinking like an owner instead of a bettor). There were so many great stories on the track today. The story of Came Home and his great owners who tried to sell a little colt THREE TIMES, and had to bring it back. Equally, Harlan's Holiday story was touching, Saarland's story was incredible being owned by the Phipps. That winner's circle could have been filled by people having the moment of a lifetime with a horse and a story. Instead it was filled with people who have everything that money could buy..and did. That million they spent is a great investment, now.

I wonder what is going on in the mind of Russell L Reineman, the former owner of War Emblem. He bought the horse as a yearling for $20,000 and turned into a million. And now, he would give it all back without a second of hesitation... if he could. The odds of him ever taking that million to the next sale and finding another War Emblem are so astronomical, they can't be estimated acurately. I wish the public could see the real life drama that goes on in racing each day.

This game of ours is VERY random. More than most of us believe. I wonder if people would still bet if they knew how truly random it is.

[cj]

Originally posted by Kentucky Bred
It has been a long time before we have seen anything coming from the Ill. Derby dominating at CD

Would have been hard, seeing how it was run AFTER the Derby before this year!

CJ

[Kentucky Bred]

Touche'

[tdthomas]

Kentucky Bred, Where did you see that figure about War Emblem being sold for a million? I haven't seen any figures, but I would have thought the price was higher.

[Kentucky Bred]

So would I tdthomas. First NBC reported it on their broadcast, and someone else posting on this site just posted the figure $900,000 which is about the same.

I once had an opportunity to be part of a group that owned a horse which won its first race in open company very impressively. People started throwing offers fast and furious, actually talking low seven figures. However, it had only won a maiden race, not a Grade 2 race impressively like War Emblem. However, this colt was classically bred and a half brother to a very famous runner up in the Derby. So, it is a complicated mixture of information, hopes and probabilities.

What I found was when you starting asking for real money to be given to you in the form of a BIG check, things change a lot of the time. The Prince actually wrote the check, and got what he wanted.

Who knows, maybe Baffert had more to do with this horse winning this race than I have given him credit for. First of all, he made the deal happen. Second, if he just left him alone and let the horse do it's thing, that takes good judgement too. Many trainers would feel the need to do SOMETHING! Trainers who have been there before often don't feel that need.

[Boris]

I read somewhere it was just short of a million, and that the previous owner kept a small piece. Also, they were skipping the Derby for the Preakness. Baffert's a witch.

[Kentucky Bred]

And is capable of revenge. His stunt with Danthebluegrassman got a lot of ink around Kentucky. He was in position to keep the a partnership horse (Winward Passage) out of the Derby by entering "Dan" due to higher earnings but he told others on the backstretch he would not enter the horse because he was not right. "Passage" owners show up to the Ky. Derby PP draw thinking they were in the race only to find out that Baffert dropped two entries into the box. He now said that "Dan" was training superbly on the track and deserved the chance to run. In fact his works were slow and not impressive.

Then he scratches "Dan" at the last minute saying the horse had some sort of stomach problem. It could all be true... but it doesn't seem to pass the smell test.

Now, as the story goes, Baffert was somehow hurt in an similar incident when Barry Irwin (the partner leader) pulled some stunt a couple of years back.

If this is all true, is it possible that Baffert and Pegram would pay the big entry fee just to screw over some group who had hurt him before? Wow!

[rrbauer]

From Kentucky Bred:

"Then he scratches "Dan" at the last minute saying the horse had some sort of stomach problem. It could all be true... but it doesn't seem to pass the smell test. "

Comment:
Horse "tied up" which is a muscular problem. They gave him a muscle relaxant, which would've given him a "positive" if he ran.

"Now, as the story goes, Baffert was somehow hurt in an similar incident when Barry Irwin (the partner leader) pulled some stunt a couple of years back. "

Comment:
The story I heard had to do with an incident in Texas a few years back between BB and Asmussen.

General Comment:
My knowledge of Baffert goes back to the 70's when his family was racing QH's at Rillito Park in Tucson and later started shipping some to Los Al for the races in Calif. Depending on what your read on Bob was, and who you talked to, he was somewhere between "confident" and a "smart ass".

I don't think that has changed much. Bob looks out for Bob and doesn't really care much about anyone else; or, what anyone else thinks. He's criticized on the backstretch because he's not at the barn at 5AM and when he does show up, his designer jeans seldom get soiled. He gets paid for seeing that his horses get good care and for having them ready to run in the afternoon. As a bettor it's only the latter that concerns me.

[JustRalph]

I know that on my Program (Brisbet Data File) Reinman was still listed as the owner. Baffert was listed as the trainer?

[Rexdale You]

Originally posted by tanda
I am not sure why Danthebluegrassman would be used as a rabbit for War Emblem. A front-runner does not need or want a rabbit.

I also am not sure why everybody keeps talking about a fast pace. Compared to recent years, the pace appears to be average or even a tad below average.

There is only one "need to lead" type in the race: War Emblem.

Yes, there are many E/P types. So what. It is a 19 horse field and among high quality horses the E/P type is the most common. There should be several in the field.

With Mayakovsky and Buddha not going, that helps War Emblem. Proud Citizen and DTBGM hurt a bit. I just can't believe how everybody perceives this as a fast pace race. Last year, there were several E types (Songandaprayer, Balto Star, Keats) and a few really fast E/P types (Millenium Wind, Congaree). I think I have missed a few others.

Came Home, etc. will give an honest pace, but I see no reason why this Derby could not be won wire to wire. :cool: :cool: :cool: That was wonderful handicapping Tanda,,,,Hope it translated into BIG BUCKS for you,,,,Rexdale You,,,,

[smf]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by rrbauer
[
Comment:
The story I heard had to do with an incident in Texas a few years back between BB and Asmussen.



rrbauer,

Care to provide details, or are we to believe internet gossip today?

I doubt seriously that Baffert was screwed over here. He's treated as a half-assed celebrity when he rolls into town with his Real Quiet's that finish 3rd in stakes races here.

However, we can agree on this much>>in the future Baffert/Pegram WILL get hosed here. No ifs ands or buts about it. It won't happen with Danthebluescratchman in the LS Derby, but it will happen.

[alyingthief]

you know, it's very hilarious that this horse had the highest beyer coming into the race--and in the prep for the derby, mind, with great room for expansion on that number (the sheets would have loved it)--and is trained by the foremost big stakes man currently in two and three year old racing--and is owned by one of, if not the most, prestigious racing organizations in the business...and he pays 40 bucks. isn't this thunder gulch all over again?