Why did Giacomo win?

[Light]

Considering that Giacomo had only broken his maiden and was still eligible for NW1X,and failed in that attempt,how did he improve so much to beat 19 other more accomplished horses in the Derby? Closing Argument I can understand.At least he had won a stake and a G3 besides his maiden and was on a comeback trail and figured to improve. But there must be some explanation for Giacomo to suddenly run a race he has NEVER shown an ability to run and do it the hardest race for a 3yo.

[Bobby]

It can't be explained. I don't care how you look at it. U can say pace scenario but if you say that you don't choose SHOCKOMO. U take Wilko or someone else. You know what I mean.

[nick777]

Considering that Giacomo had only broken his maiden and was still eligible for NW1X,and failed in that attempt,how did he improve so much to beat 19 other more accomplished horses in the Derby? Closing Argument I can understand.At least he had won a stake and a G3 besides his maiden and was on a comeback trail and figured to improve. But there must be some explanation for Giacomo to suddenly run a race he has NEVER shown an ability to run and do it the hardest race for a 3yo.


I know why he won, i figured it out, after the race of course.

1-He had the most "Bottom" in him, with 5 consecutive route races, most of the favs only had 2-3, that extra stamina prepping gave him the edge.

2-Coming from the west coast, the hot weather today was more to his liking, along with the other west coasters, who all ran well.

3-Mike Smith pulled a Shoemaker on Ferdinand, only Mikey knew how much horse he was using in his preps, and how much horse he had left for the Derby.

4-Same as 3, his lines coming into the race obviously weren't honest, as he was not going full out to win those preps, but focusing on the Derby.

5-Back to back bullet works.

6-This is the most important one. Because i didn't bet on him.

[dav4463]

Horse was rounding into form and had the right running style (along with about six others) who benefitted from an incredibly fast pace.

[Tuffmug]

Perfectly timed ride by Mike Smith in a race run too fast early. Giacomo was 18th at 6f doing 1:11.8 while the jerks up front were doing 1:09.4 with 4 furlongs to go!
Saw Biancone on TV cutting up by leading a white rabbit out of his stall and talking about his chances. It was a great joke but the moron jockeys up front were the real joke as they went with the "rabbits" Spanish Chestnut and Going Wild and lost their chance to win. :lol:

[BeatTheChalk]

Oh I beg your pardon. He rand 2nd To Declans Moon as a 2 year old. !!
Then ran 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby..ahem cough ahem !! Then had 2
superb works at Hollywood !!! And finally Moss dont breed no bad ones :)

[Light]

BTC

Good point,but despite his accomplishments,he still ranked 18th out of 20 in earnings for 2005 and it's not like the others in this field ran against chumps or in classless races.

[Brian Flewwelling]

looked reasonable to me... after the race. Speed over 100 in all races this year and 109 in last as 2yo. All routes.

He just needed the break, and got it...

i have him at 106 for his win

Fleww

[PaceAdvantage]

Hey look, Shirreffs and Smith basically admitted on national TV that they weren't out to win his preps. Go back and watch the TV coverage and read a bit between the lines (hell, you don't even have to read between the lines, they were pretty up front about it....kind of shocking given all the crap about Sweet Catomine).

If you do go back and watch the post race comments, pay particular attention to when Donna Brothers is talking to Smith right after he pulls up on the backstretch after the race.

Nick777 nailed it with his #3 and #4 comments.

[cj]

Number one had to be the insane pace.

Handicapping 101 should have told all of us that the frontrunners had ZERO chance, but at least in my case, I'm stubborn. If this was a routine claimer with this much speed signed on, no way we bet the speed horses.

Still, not sure I would come up with Giacomo, though looking backwards now, of course you can always find a few things to like.

[how cliche]

I've seen John Shireffs and Jerry Moss team up on many a stakes winner because I'm a student of Southern California racing. The biggest signal those two can give that their horse is set to run a huge long stake race is from a 7f workout at HOL in 1:25 or less.

The 1:23 & 4 work served notice and for that reason he was in my wife and my trifecta wheel in all three spots, for the only race where we play gimmicks every year. We keyed Alex W-P-S, but left out Closing Argument(who still has yet to miss the board his entire career)as one of the surrounding runners. It's just a shame. You have to make tough decisions in that race unless you want to spend a mint. We did manage to play Giacomo across the board to save the day, and we're left happy yet dissapointed, wondering why so many good horses ran so poorly.

We had our big win bet on Afleet Alex who ran courageously in defeat. I'm still proud of that little guy and hold him near to my heart and mind.

[cj]

Here is what I come up with for Derby Figures, Beyer Scale:

Pace: 124 Final: 102

At first glance, I would say Closing Argument ran the most impressive race.

[Pace Cap'n]

Here is a thead by a guy who nailed the winner dead to rights two days before the race:

Giacomo (http://www.majorwager.com/fusetalk/messageview.cfm?catid=22&threadid=130107&CFID=1394684&CFTOKEN=83635925)

Cites the works, the race with Declan's Moon, the slow pace of the SA Derby...

I took it with a grain of salt...

[racingrev]

Couldn't see the race live here in NZ which was a real brass off I can tell you...

All along I liked Afleet Alex, but warmed to Giacomo strongly over the last few days.. Tipped him as the roughie that could win the derby on another website and backed him at 50's on ladbrokes.. For many of the reasons mentioned above..

Don't sell this guy short.. He's the dude that has come right at the right time... He can stay longer than your mother in law and could be a genuine hope at the triple crown...

Alex may have been a touch unlucky.. Durkin said in the call he wouldn't go the inside run coming of the back??? (Any comments on that!!!) If indeed that is the case he may have cost himself a length or two...

Apart from that Bellamy Road went OK, but Jack Hill the blind miner could see he wasn't the same horse that won the Wood Memorial... As for some of the other big bubbles to burst..What can you say..Nothing...

Go GIACOMO.... :cool:

[BIG RED]

Nick777 has some valid points. I wholeheartedly agree with 3,4, and 5. Now I'm a paper and pencil type of capper. Second race back loses in G2 by 6.5 lgnths, moves up to G1 and stretches out more and loses only by 2 lgnths. Loses nothing in the stretch. And, yes add the two bullet LONG works for an added angle and you have a contender. Now the odds, 50-1, you bet it is a bet! What made me decide on him for a longshot play was something I don't do often. His last race I watched. I bet him in the SADerby, only him, so watched just him live. When he finished something told me this horse was just starting to run. Well, I felt lousy that he lost, but not anymore. :)

[JustRalph]

Mike Smith! That's Why..............

[theotherside]

22.1 45.2 109.2 thats why he won! plus, last race 12 and change last 1/8 along with 2 huge workouts goinb in to the race.

[Kreed]

His PPs do NOT show any bad races. 2 Grade 1's: 2nd by 1 to Declan's Moon
and 4th by 2 in the SA derby. All in all, he fit perfect. I read where 2 guys
at the Meadowlands had $1 P4s: ~870K. I think they Partied non stop.

[EQUIPACE]

Number one had to be the insane pace.

Handicapping 101 should have told all of us that the frontrunners had ZERO chance, but at least in my case, I'm stubborn. If this was a routine claimer with this much speed signed on, no way we bet the speed horses.

Still, not sure I would come up with Giacomo, though looking backwards now, of course you can always find a few things to like.

CJ, My sentiments exactly... There were 8 horses in the race that either needed the lead or just slightly from off, to win this... No rocket science here...The pace & pressure on the front was going to be ridiculous! It was clear to me that a closer was going to win... And I wagered that way... No, I didnt have Giacomo on the win end of my exotic tickets... But as you said, there were more than a couple of reasons he might have been played after the fact. The 2 back to back bullet preps at 6 & 7 furs were certainly impressive. IMO, I think he just had the race of his life... And I really dont see him repeating this effort in the next two legs of the TC. If you look at his running lines especially, He doesnt even come close to resembling that of TC caliber horse.
John
~¿o

[46zilzal]

There were 8 horses in the race that either needed the lead or just slightly from off, to win this...
EIGHT??? more likely three or four and a few of those were heading up front as an example of GOING OFF FORM: i.e Spanish Chesnut BIG TIME

[freehouse2002]

Maybe everyone just underestimated the West. If you look carefully at Giacomos PP's, he had eerily similar form to Real Quiet in '98. Both horses ran in the big preps before the derby and neither of them won any of their preps. They did however seem to improve in each race leading up to the derby. He was one of the best looking 50-1 shots (at least to me) and who knows, maybe he is peaking at the right time. AA ran a real gutty race in defeat, just wish he woulda nabbed 2nd for me for the exacta, lol. On a side note, wouldn't it be funny if this were THE year, especially since Visa is in their last sponsorship year?? It would be nice to see those suckers have to pay the $5 million bonus at least once, lol (and yes I know that they are covered by insurance, but still I'd like to see it happen). On to the Preakness!!!!



freehouse2002

[EQUIPACE]

EIGHT??? more likely three or four and a few of those were heading up front as an example of GOING OFF FORM: i.e Spanish Chesnut BIG TIME

46zilzal

Yes, what I meant was, there were only 3 or 4 need the lead types, the other few I was talking about, were going to put pressure on them off the pace. And, I dont disagree with you at all about a few horses that were going off form... Good Point!

Either way, Spanish Chesnut, going off form or not... Was still a huge portion of the insane early pace going in this race... He was a throw out for me.
I hope I got it right...Thanks for the come back either way.

John
~¿0

[chickenhead]

The sun moon and starts aligned for him...he had a good race in him, the pace set up for him, and he fired big. No way I would have landed on him as THE ONE, short of a hunch bet. just no way.

My girlfriend had $2WPS, she liked his name...JOCK-AMO JOCK-AMO. That's great, babe, really. Congrats. Now get in the car, we're going home.

The pace and style did in Bellamy, High Fly, took enough out of Alex to put him third....Closing Argument ran the race I thought Bandini would run..oops wrong horse. Don't know why none of the "better" closers ran well, amazed to see the Calif horses all over the top of the board.

We made the trip down to SA Derby this year, watched Buzzards Bay and General John destroy all of our tickets...my SA bets were big exactas with Giacomo and Wilko hooked up, outclassed all but SC at odds on....before the race we were hoping, hey, you know, the Kentucky Derby winner might be in here somewhere! Maybe Wilko, or even SC, who knows. After the race...well maybe NEXT year we'll see the Derby winner.

How wrong we were! F'in JOCK-A-MO.

[Bubbles]

Those early fractions were obscene. Reminds some of the Monarchos Derby, where Point Given went too fast, too early.

There is no way Giacomo comes close to this in the next few weeks. Bellamy Road and Afleet Alex won't stand for it.

[Equineer]

Pace Cap'n linked to a post that claimed Giacomo threw a shoe in more than one of his preps.

One of those mishaps was reported when he finished 3rd in the Sham.

What other race(s) for Giacomo did this happen in?

[Kreed]

Probly a few players threw their shoes at Giacomo. So There.

[Light]

Here is what Shirreffs said after the race:

" I didn't see a lot of the race,I was down on track level. I didn't pick him up until the sixteenths pole,and I saw the shadow roll(over his face),and I said,'Well,he's moving' "

What was he doing missing the race and not in his seat,like Zito or Aflleet's owners with his binocs and his lovely wife to his side?Buying a Snicker's bar?Sounds real confident.

[Speed Figure]

When your horse is 50/1 how much confident can you have.

[EQUIPACE]

Running Style Results

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=634&stc=1

When looking at the Bris Running Styles (Table) it makes total sence why early horses got swallowed up. I dont agree that Giacomo should be labeled as an EP when he looks more like a P or an S Running Style to me.

Can someone explain to me the best way to insert a table here in my posts...
Thanks!

John
~¿o

[e_r]

' At first glance, I would say Closing Argument ran the most impressive race.'

I wouldn't want any of the top 3 next time.
Unless, of course, we are expecting the Preakness and Belmont to collapse again.

Last move won and penultimate moves 2nd and 3rd.

(Which explains why I never gave NNY a shot in the NY stakes--he would last move in collapsing races BUT never get up.)

I'd take a close look at the chasers: they were behind a rididulous pace and then made first moves into the stretch.

Clearly, Bellamy Road was never comfortable stalking outside. Yet he did put in a bid entering the stretch. High Fly had an easier inside trip.

NOt saying I like either of them next time as I haven't looked at the race closely yet; however, I certainly would not bet anything that was running well late.

[EQUIPACE]

When your horse is 50/1 how much confident can you have.

Speed,

Honestly... I had confidence in my 58-1 shot (Greater Good)!
Put him and AA in the 1st & 2nd hole on my exotics...
And had Win & Place $ on him as well...

John
~¿o

[Speed Figure]

I hear what your saying. If AA had won I would have had the EX and TRI, but that's how it goes. :(

[kenwoodallpromos]

24.4;48.6;1:12.9;1:37.2;2:02.8, this based on converting lengths back at 8' to 55' per second.
A doubt any horse could run morte even fractions for the Kentucky Derby than that- except mabye Smarty Jones!LOL!
Like I said, early speed does not win races; the first horse across ther wire does.
The only figure I saw that had it right is CJ's ROI figures!

[Zimal1]

What if some of the horses that ran big numbers before were
juiced, and others such as Giacomo were not. Somebody posted somewhere that Sherieffs is thought to be clean. Security was huge for the Derby, so you would expect horses who had been drugged up prior to regress. Frankel in the Breeders Cup is the great example of this phenomenon. Yes, I know, if we only knew which ones were so affected. Still just some food or juice for thought.

[cj]

Zimal,

No doubt its a factor to consider. Anyone notice Dutrow's struggles thus far at Belmont with the new testing system? How about the performance of Dutrow, Pletcher, Zito, and Frankel's horses in the Graded Stakes at CD this weekend, where they have implemented pre-race testing for those contests. More...Don Six sure stunk up the joint at Belmont for Lake.

As I've said many times, I can't prove these guys are/were juicing, but it is definitely the way to bet.

Anyone know if the same testing procedures will be in place in Baltimore? Let's see if Magna is ready to do what is right and not try to save a few pennies.

[Buckeye]

Because there was no Smarty Jones in this race!

The speed horses were done at the top of the stretch. The pace they set was well outside of their ability.

[so.cal.fan]

Mike Smith told a good friend of mine, who is a trainer at Santa Anita that this horse was one of the best horses he ever rode....he was equal to Holy Bull (who incidently is his sire). This was after he broke his maiden at Santa Anita.
Smith was always very high on this horse.....I guess he has ability and the race just happened to set up for him.
On a side note....one of our track friends also heard the Smith comment, and for lack of a better opinion at the time (I believe Jan.) this man, a well known radio host....bet $100 to win on Giacomo at future book odds of 100/1 in Las Vegas....as weeks went by, the man lost confidence in the horse and in his own words "didn't really like him at all, yesterday" and went on to add "I'm the luckiest guy at the track today"!!!! You probably could have bought his future book ticket last week for ten cents on the dollar.
This handicapper, like Frankel....had a bad opinion of the Santa Anita Derby....
however....he'll collect his $10,000 with a smile!!!!

[garyoz]

I tend to agree with the perspective that the new detention barn policies could have had a great deal to do with the race's outcome. Does anyone know what policies will be in effect at Pimlico. We know that Belmont will be running a tight ship.

It is also my view that a case could have been made for Giacomo using Equiform's Xtra Sheets, or at least the way I use them. I used the Xtra's but wasn't smart enough to do the following analysis (since the race is over I assume there is no issue in using the numbers):

BR showed an 81 top and 85 pace figure, a new pace top last race. Had bounce written all over it. I actually thought he might be a super horse and used him (like the sucker I often am) thinking he was still developing and wouldn't bounce. His race prior to the 81 was a 75 3/4. Can now easily see him bouncing to a mid 70 number if I hadn't watched him win the Wood. He did bounce, and I was reminded once again that I am a terrible trip/visual handicapper.

AA ran a 79 3/4 with a 66 pace figure last race. Previous final figures were 69 and 79. These figures all were run within the last 2 months, alot of racing. I thought he could bounce and still run a 78 or and win (Smarty Jones won on a bounce last year--at least with Thorograph numbers).

Giacomo showed excellent development as a two year old, running a 74 1/4 last December at Hollywood. When using the Xtra's, I typically expect a 4 to 5 point development for 3 year olds from their two year old tops. Now, here's the key. Giacomo's last race was a 74 3/4 and about 3 weeks previously he ran a 74. This represents a 3/4 point forward move. One angle my friends and I developed while using the Ragozin Sheets was to look for small incremental moves in a horse's development, that is a 1/4 to 3/4 point improvement in a horse's last two figures. We thought that a horse was winding up and improving and that there was a good chance for a forward move and a reasonable possibility of an explosive move. Given the 74 1/4 two year old top (not a bad number) a forward move could take Giacomo to the 78ish level, where the top horses could figure to bounce to. Thus, I could argue his final figure would be competitive and he had a 50/1 ML. I did not do this before the race. Nor am I trying to redboard him now, just trying to provide an explanation.

the problem with the above analyis is that High Fly was also coming off a 3/4 point move and looked to move forward to a 79.

The idea is to identify horses with the possibility of winning. I used both AA and Closing Argument, but didn't look close enough at Giacomo. Wish I hadn't watched the Wood and only bet the figures, then BR would have been an absolute toss.

[46zilzal]

there were NO early, early/pressers or pressers in the 10th at CD yesterday exccept Spanish Chesnut who was going off from and noramlly is an S/P

[Jinxed]

Holy Bull (his father) lost the KD, but matured into one fine race horse. There are some horses that take longer to mature, and perhaps Giacomo is simply one of them. If he repeats his performance in the Preakness I guess we can simply say he is a late bloomer that Mike Smith never lost faith in, and he had other options to ride in the derby and didn't.

Giacomo could have also won because the pace set up for a closer, or any number of reasons. He most certainly took most everyone off guard and to those that had him I tip my hat. I threw the chalk out, but didn't find the right longshot anyway. I'm anxious to see Buzzard's Bay if he runs in the Preakness and gets a good post. He did an excellent job from the 20 post.

There is no rhyme or reason why Giacomo won the race except perhaps a very hungry jockey that truly wanted this victory. There is certainly no speculation on Mike Smith as being an excellent jockey, because he most certainly is one of the best.

So we eat a little crow and wait for the next time we can donate to the races, but I truly think Giacomo is just beginning to peak and I think I'll stay with him.

I do, however, think AA was awesome, but Rose missed one opportunity to get him to the outside of that mess of horses and opted for the inside. I think that lost AA's chances of winning, as the 1 post at Churchill stunk yesterday.
:)

[Tom]

Giac showed improving third fractions in each of his last three races and two bullet works leading up the Derby. He was ranked second best turn time and third best late pace (F2 + F3). In his last race, he improved on his December graded stakes race...a sure sign of a horse ready to improve.
What I want to know, is why didn't I see this BEFORE the race? D'oh! :faint:

[Niko]

I honestly believe if the pace at the 1/2 isn't the second fastest in Derby history or is a little more reasonable, Giacomo isn't in the top two and this becomes a mute thread. Looking at some of the results of trainers it's so interesting and hard to predict what the detention barns are going to do to what horse. I'll all for it and maybe there's a window of opportunity with some odds on for the "super" trainers to lose and make some money. The Santa Anita horses had worse numbers but were under stricter guidelines..but then they didn't contest the pace as early either. Too bad as handicappers we have to worry what detention barns are doing to some of the top horses. Why did Madcape Escapade fade under fractions she normally doesn't have a problem with on a very fast track?? I hope they do have detention barns for all Triple Crown races.

[PaceAdvantage]

First off, Holy Bull certainly wasn't a late bloomer. He beat the eventual 2yo champion Dehere in the Futurity at Belmont.

Then he beat a strong group of older horses in May in the Grade 1 Met Mile as a 3yo.

For the life of me, I can't see how Mike Smith (who loves Holy Bull) can say Giacomo is as good as Holy Bull. That's an insult to the "Bull"

I love Holy Bull almost as much as Mike Smith (note my avatar). In no way does Giacomo resemble Holy Bull, except for perhaps his coloring. He hasn't won much (2 wins in 10 starts....Holy Bull went 13 for 16 LIFETIME), and he's not a front runner with tons of guts and a heart as big as the racetrack.

Yes, Giacomo has something Holy Bull never was able to get, a Kentucky Derby win. But I don't think there's anything he can do on the racetrack, short of winning the Triple Crown, that will make me believe he's as good as Holy Bull was. Even if he were to win the Triple Crown, I still in my heart wouldn't be able to say he is as good as the Bull.

With that said, although I didn't cash a ticket on the Derby, I was at least consoled by the fact that Holy Bull has sired a Kentucky Derby winner. HOORAY for the BULL!

I hope to visit Holy Bull once again at Jonabell Farm and congratulate him in person!

[Trijack]

Turn Time

I had Giacomo on top min my tri bet because he showed up as 3 points better on Turn Time than the next horse. This was on the Brohamer Plus Report in the Always program. I only use this most of the time in turf races but when I saw that he was 50 to 1 with all the speed in the race I figured he was worth the bet. My trouble was with the 18 that came 2nd.

Jack

[NoDayJob]

:lol: The reason Giacomo won was because he crossed the finish wire first and wasn't disqualified, ya dummies. :lol:

NDJ

[Light]

Has anyone noticed that 4 of the top 6 KD finishers came out of the SA DERBY! Apparently,that was a key race and nobody knew it.This is what I am trying to get at.I'm looking for facts,not conjecture. I think the SA Derby was misgraded because of the artificially slow pace set by Buzzards Bay.He ran 11.3 and 36.4. Two races later an AlwN2x ran 10.3 and 35.6 won by Mike Smith(how ironic).Why isn't that horse in a GI?Because it's BS. I think when Bris and DRF did their speed ratings,they based it on the Alwn2x race since it was faster and downgraded the SA Derby since it was a full second slower. This is why everyone's figures showed these 4 out of 6 top KD finishers as below par and they went off at a big price. Giacomo biggest achievement to me is not that he won the KD,but that he shows that this method of figure making is flawed.

[chickenhead]

It is more likely that the SA Derby beyers were the most correct of all the preps.

[cj]

If everyone changed methodologies every time a race didn't work out according to their system...geesh...come on guys, of course any speed figure system isn't going to be perfect. But, as chickenhead said, there is more evidence that the Beyer from the SA Derby was correct than wrong.

Rumor is the Beyer for Giacomo winning the Derby is around 100, which is pretty darn close to his SA figure. Given that this figure was earned on Derby Day when you have horses shipping from all over the place to run, I see no reason to think it is wrong.

The reason the Santa Anita horses ran so well is pretty simple, none of them (that ran well) were up front on that brutal pace.

[Valuist]

Absolutely. And the talking heads on TVG were talking about Declan's Moon. "Imagine if he were in the race; he had beaten Giacomo solidly." Declan's Moon would've likely been yet another pace casualty.

[Light]

CJ said: The reason the Santa Anita horses ran so well is pretty simple, none of them (that ran well) were up front on that brutal pace.

Not really.After 6 furlongs,only 4 other horses were within 1-1/2 lenghts of Spanish Chestnut. Those were Flower Alley,High Fly,Going wild and Bellamy road. Guess who was 2 back of that group in 6th:Closing Argument. Why wasn't he cooked? So if Closing Argument could allmost win the Derby sitting in 6th place only 3-1/2 lengths off the 109.6 set by Spanish Chestnut,everyone behind him had no excuse that it was a hot pace.

Furthermore,there were many other horses besides the SA Derby horses who were never close to the brutal pace mentioned above:Bandini,Sun King,Noble Causeway,Greater Good,Coin Silver,Greeley's Galaxy,Andromeda's Hero.Why didn't these horses fire? Answer:They didn't run in the SA Derby.IMO. The SA Derby's soft pace kept these horses from buckling up in the KD.

[JustRalph]

:Bandini,Sun King,Noble Causeway,Greater Good,Coin Silver,Greeley's Galaxy,Andromeda's Hero.Why didn't these horses fire? Answer:They didn't run in the SA Derby.IMO. The SA Derby's soft pace kept these horses from buckling up in the KD.

I think these horses might just be distance limited, and this may be a classic example of that.

[Tuffmug]

Closing Arguement: 480 Tomlinson!

[RXB]

Closing Arguement: 480 Tomlinson!

Where are you getting this 480 from? I use Formulator and I have a 243* rating for that horse at 10 furlongs.

And forgetting the Tomlinson ratings: a grandson of Valid Appeal (sprinter-miler sire) and a dam by Mr. Greeley (6.5f - 9f is the best range for his progeny). From the breeding, I have a tough time seeing that horse as wanting 10 furlongs.

[Tuffmug]

DFR Past Perfomance for KD. Tomlinson based, as I understand it, on actual distance results of multiple progeny rather than extrapolation from one sire,grandsire,dam, or grandam"s race record.

DRF was very sloppy in publishing these ratings. I had initially handicapped using their published Derbey Futures PP's and they listed the wrong Tomlinson ratings for all the contenders. Closing Argument listed as 241, Bellamy at 330*, Giacomo at 215!

[RXB]

Well, I'm reasonably knowledgable about breeding, and I know how the Tomlinsons are constructed.

Successful Appeal is a new sire-- Closing Argument is from his first crop. So I have a hard time believing that any other horse by that sire has even ran 10 furlongs before. Now, explain that 'no extrapolation' part again, please?

The 243* seems a lot more sensible than 480.

[BillW]

Something I don't understand - I thought the Tomlinson's in the DRF were the same as the Tomlinson,s in the Formulator (and from the same source?)

[Tuffmug]

DRF,America's Turf Authority since 1894, occasionally has no clothes! They published the wrong numbers either in the KD PP's, or the Derby Futures PP's, or in the Formulator File. Who knows, maybe all the published numbers are wrong!

Sometimes they make numbers up at DRF. My ex used to work for DRF. When a printing deadline approached and they weren't able to get the official Beyer numbers from Andy's minions, they would make them up!

[cj]

I don't think that is true about the Beyers being made up. Usually if a horse runs back in a couple days, you see a - for his Beyer, both in print and in the Formulator file. I'm not saying it NEVER happened, but it doesn't happen now.

[cj]

I saw a different set of Tomlinsons in Horseplayer Magazine, they apparently go back three generations. Those are not the same ones that appear in the DRF, either Formulator or in print.

By the way, nice of them to send me the Kentucky Derby issue, TODAY!!! And being late caused me to miss out on James Quinn's expert pick, ROCKPORT HARBOR!

[lamboruns]

sometimes horses just run over their heads and its not explainable.. same as with human track and field....i.e. beamon long jump in mexico city olympic games...things just happenthats why they run the race

[KingChas]

Has anyone noticed that 4 of the top 6 KD finishers came out of the SA DERBY! Apparently,that was a key race and nobody knew it.

Sorry to disagree Light- right track /wrong race.The San Felipe won by Consolidator with a Beyer of 105 would seem to be the key race to me.
Check it out 1.Consolidator 2.Giacocmo 3.Don't Get Mad 4.Wilko

[nick777]

First off, Holy Bull certainly wasn't a late bloomer. He beat the eventual 2yo champion Dehere in the Futurity at Belmont.

Then he beat a strong group of older horses in May in the Grade 1 Met Mile as a 3yo.

For the life of me, I can't see how Mike Smith (who loves Holy Bull) can say Giacomo is as good as Holy Bull. That's an insult to the "Bull"

I love Holy Bull almost as much as Mike Smith (note my avatar). In no way does Giacomo resemble Holy Bull, except for perhaps his coloring. He hasn't won much (2 wins in 10 starts....Holy Bull went 13 for 16 LIFETIME), and he's not a front runner with tons of guts and a heart as big as the racetrack.

Yes, Giacomo has something Holy Bull never was able to get, a Kentucky Derby win. But I don't think there's anything he can do on the racetrack, short of winning the Triple Crown, that will make me believe he's as good as Holy Bull was. Even if he were to win the Triple Crown, I still in my heart wouldn't be able to say he is as good as the Bull.

With that said, although I didn't cash a ticket on the Derby, I was at least consoled by the fact that Holy Bull has sired a Kentucky Derby winner. HOORAY for the BULL!

I hope to visit Holy Bull once again at Jonabell Farm and congratulate him in person!


I completely agree with Mike Smith, Giacomo looked a lot like Holy Bull

His range of motion, fluidity of stride, body movement

When he caught that 5 path, he ran like a machine, keeping a straight line, right down the stretch, Holy Bull ran that way too, like a machine

Check the old tapes and you'll see what i mean

I'll bet you Giacomo can run good closer to the pace if he had to, we'll see in the Preakness.

I always thought the Bull was just a super fit freak, i mean Minnesota Mac, Al Hattab, wtf is that when compared with the likes of Raise A Native and others.

I never thought he would be much of a sire because i thought his talent and success was as a result of being supremely conditioned, and not through his inherited bloodlines.

I'm almost suspicious, with so much money in the breeding, that some horses are being purposely jacked, because of their sires, in an effort to increase their value as a stud.

The exporting of prominent studs is a huge business, and getting bigger by the minute.

Once a sire is a proven commodity, like Storm Cat, Fusaichi Pegasus, they seem to have less of an impact in these big races.

Is it my imagination, or does anyone else think that makes sense

[RXB]

I'm almost suspicious, with so much money in the breeding, that some horses are being purposely jacked, because of their sires, in an effort to increase their value as a stud.

The exporting of prominent studs is a huge business, and getting bigger by the minute.

Once a sire is a proven commodity, like Storm Cat, Fusaichi Pegasus, they seem to have less of an impact in these big races.

Is it my imagination, or does anyone else think that makes sense

I can't comment on your 'jacked' theory because I have no idea.

However, most sires seem to do their best at creating quality runners until they're around 15 to 17 years of age. At least, that's my observation. After that, they tend to get progeny that are more brittle and can't withstand the rigours of racing for as long. Plus, if the sire has proven to be a top-class sire of sires and/or broodmares, at the first sign of weakness the progeny might be retired to ensure that a potentially lucrative breeding career isn't foregone due to death on the racetrack.

Fusaichi Pegasus seems to be well on his way to a fine career as a sire but he's still got some things to prove. (Can they stay physically sound? Can they run 10f? Will his sons and daughters do great things in the breeding shed?) I don't think he would fall into the Storm Cat/Seeking The Gold category just yet.

[PaceAdvantage]

I completely agree with Mike Smith, Giacomo looked a lot like Holy Bull

His range of motion, fluidity of stride, body movement

I agree that he resembles his sire a bit...I'll have to study his motion a bit more like you say.

What I disagree with is anyone saying he's "as good as" Holy Bull. This is just an insane statement at this point in time.

Speed figures don't bear it out....race record don't bear it out...competition beaten don't bear it out....it's just wildly inaccurate to say Giacomo in any way is "as good as" Holy Bull. For this kind of statement, potential doesn't count.

[RXB]

Giacomo can run just as fast as Holy Bull-- for the last 1/4 mile. It's those eight or ten lengths that Holy Bull would've opened on him in the initial 7f-8f that Giacomo would find problematic.

[RXB]

I would like to retract that last post. Holy Bull would not have opened up eight to ten lengths on Giacomo.

He would've opened up ten to twelve lengths on Giacomo.

My apologies for the initial inaccuracy.

[so.cal.fan]

King Chas:
"Has anyone noticed that 4 of the top 6 KD finishers came out of the SA DERBY! Apparently,that was a key race and nobody knew it".

I hope Bobby Frankel doesn't read your post, KC.....he's been hearing this for the past two days now.

We shall see if Mike Smith is right about this horse.......he did win the KY Derby, and beat a lot of good horses......I wouldn't be so quick to toss him in the Preakness......I'll bet Frankel keeps his "opines" to himself for the duration of the TC. :lol:

[mhrussell]

Why did he win? The "piggy-ist of pigs.." in a race filled with champions?

How deep is the ocean? How high is the sky? Who is John Galt?

What we all have to remember is that in this game there is A LOT of randomness!! More than we care to admit to ourselves. All of us with our advanced speed and pace figures, our Race and Class ratings and all of that.
And don't get me wrong!.. I love that analytical stuff! I am an engineer and have spent years writing and improving my own handicapping program...and loving it! And you need this kind of information in order to do well. It is 'necessary but not sufficient'.

But at the last, what I finally needed to learn was to always keep this image in my mind: a bunch of great horses, living to eat oats, run, spend time with their dog or goat friends, hope to have a kind, caring trainer and staff...and eventually spend the rest of their lives running around the farm and making other horses.

But they "don't know nothin' about no Beyer numbers!" They don't know that they are 'supposed' to win or not! They are HORSES BEING HORSES.

This game IS predictable enough to favor trends and to discover advantages that can be used to win in the long run. But discovering a favorable race is like finding a pair of loaded dice at the craps table. You can do good work, know with some confidence that you have an advantage in a race, but then the gate opens...and the dice are cast... and for any single race, the rest is still up to chance, advantage or no. I needed to get to think in terms of over many races, over many trials what would happen? Better yet is to consider video poker. You hold the best cards from those originally dealt you(or you can choose simply not to play out the hand!). Then you hit the spin button...and around and around they go... Whether your hand is 'made' or not is just chance. I have said this before, and agree with MP who taught me this: "horse racing is much more like video poker than we care to believe!"
But we can and ought to use this to our advantage.. AND STOP FIGHTING IT!!!

Stop looking for purpose when there is only process!!

I nearly won $100,000 on this race by "embracing the uncertainty" and going against the "mortal lock" figure horses, the conventional Derby wisdom established over the ages and all of what the "experts" were saying.

With the takeout so high in this game, it's the only way to win long term, and it sure is a hell of a lot more fun too!

I am feeling better now. Had a nice "Giacomo pork roast" with my family on Mothers Day...tasted a bit funny but.. :D

Relax everybody. It's a horse race not a scientific lab experiment. Go with it!

best,
Matt

[kingfin66]

It's good to see you're off The Watch, Matt.

[Light]

mhrussell

For those who did pick Giacomo before the race,they didn't sound like they were picking him out of thin air. They knew what they were talking about.It wasn't randomness to them. Just because you don't see it,please don't label it.

[nick777]

I agree that he resembles his sire a bit...I'll have to study his motion a bit more like you say.

What I disagree with is anyone saying he's "as good as" Holy Bull. This is just an insane statement at this point in time.

Speed figures don't bear it out....race record don't bear it out...competition beaten don't bear it out....it's just wildly inaccurate to say Giacomo in any way is "as good as" Holy Bull. For this kind of statement, potential doesn't count.


I think only Mike Smith has the right to compare the 2, since he rode them both.

As far as i know, he never said anything like that.

This was his quote on the subject



"After I got on him the first time, I told John that he was so much like his dad," Smith recalled. "It was the way he traveled, the way he feels. His father was very aggressive, but he's a little kinder - he probably got that from his mother. But yet he felt so much like him, I said 'This is our Derby horse, and if we can get him there, he's going to redeem his father's name.' "

[creatureman]

http://msn.foxsports.com/horseracing/story/3605196

[PaceAdvantage]

As far as i know, he never said anything like that.

Then either you missed so.cal.fan's post, or you don't believe what she typed:

Mike Smith told a good friend of mine, who is a trainer at Santa Anita that this horse was one of the best horses he ever rode....he was equal to Holy Bull (who incidently is his sire).

[nick777]

Then either you missed so.cal.fan's post, or you don't believe what she typed:

Yup

[PaceAdvantage]

Is it just me, or would other handicappers out there be wary of using a software program or method on a DAILY BASIS that gave you Giacomo as the top pick in the Derby?

It seems to me that this was a major abberation. If I have a program that gives me Giacomo, I'll betcha that program doesn't hit very many winners. So it better be giving me $100 horses enough of the time to make me money. If not, it's gonna kill you in the long run....

[Dan Montilion]

King Chas:
"Has anyone noticed that 4 of the top 6 KD finishers came out of the SA DERBY! Apparently,that was a key race and nobody knew it".

I hope Bobby Frankel doesn't read your post, KC.....he's been hearing this for the past two days now.

We shall see if Mike Smith is right about this horse.......he did win the KY Derby, and beat a lot of good horses......I wouldn't be so quick to toss him in the Preakness......I'll bet Frankel keeps his "opines" to himself for the duration of the TC. :lol:

S.C. Fan

With all of the rain in so. Cal this year I wonder if the California contingent was not simply behind in training/foundation during the California preps and are simply catching and passing the others as their training returns to normal.

Dan Montilion

[nick777]

Is it just me, or would other handicappers out there be wary of using a software program or method on a DAILY BASIS that gave you Giacomo as the top pick in the Derby?

It seems to me that this was a major abberation. If I have a program that gives me Giacomo, I'll betcha that program doesn't hit very many winners. So it better be giving me $100 horses enough of the time to make me money. If not, it's gonna kill you in the long run....

There is no way any software could pick Giacomo, it is impossible, you would need intuition and the ability to read between the lines in the form.

[cj]

I don't agree. I don't dabble in selection type software, but I could see where a program might have labelled this an extremely fast pace scenario, eliminated all but the deep closers, and had Giacomo as the best of these.

[nick777]

I don't agree. I don't dabble in selection type software, but I could see where a program might have labelled this an extremely fast pace scenario, eliminated all but the deep closers, and had Giacomo as the best of these.


You're saying that after the race, and after Giacomo came from way out of it.

Giacomo was never more than 4 lengths off the early pace in any of his races this year, prior to the Derby.

A computer would never be able to foresee such an event, unless it was Jojo the psychics computer.

[cj]

My software only had 4 horses rated as S, or deep closers: Andromeda's Hero, Greater Good, Giacomo, and Don't Get Mad. Of these four, Giacomo's Sham Stakes earned the best figure.

I am in no way trying to say I would have picked this horse, wasn't going to happen. I'm just saying, and this was the key, IF software determined the projected pace was going to be so fast as to favor deep closers, Giacomo was certainly possible. I don't think too many would argue if I said a very fast pace was predictable, even though I wasn't smart enough to predict it myself.

Here were the E and E/P horses and their last pace figure, Beyer scale:

High Limit 116
Flower Alley 96
Greeley's Galaxy 114
Spanish Chestnut 117
Bandini 113
Bellamy Road 114
Going Wild 105
Buzzard's Bay 97

So you had five very fast horses all projected to be within one length of each other after 6f, literally screaming speed duel. A computer definitely could have come up with Giacomo on top, in my opinion, with solid handicapping. I just wish I could have. :D

[GMB@BP]

Then either you missed so.cal.fan's post, or you don't believe what she typed:

Mike would never make a statement like that. He does not believe any horse he has ridden is in Holy Bulls class, at least at this point. I love the, I know someone who knows someone statements. No offese to the original poster, they may have heard that, but I know its not true.

[keilan]

My software only had 4 horses rated as S, or deep closers: Andromeda's Hero, Greater Good, Giacomo, and Don't Get Mad. Of these four, Giacomo's Sham Stakes earned the best figure.

I am in no way trying to say I would have picked this horse, wasn't going to happen. I'm just saying, and this was the key, IF software determined the projected pace was going to be so fast as to favor deep closers, Giacomo was certainly possible. I don't think too many would argue if I said a very fast pace was predictable, even though I wasn't smart enough to predict it myself.

Here were the E and E/P horses and their last pace figure, Beyer scale:

High Limit 116
Flower Alley 96
Greeley's Galaxy 114
Spanish Chestnut 117
Bandini 113
Bellamy Road 114
Going Wild 105
Buzzard's Bay 97

So you had five very fast horses all projected to be within one length of each other after 6f, literally screaming speed duel. A computer definitely could have come up with Giacomo on top, in my opinion, with solid handicapping. I just wish I could have. :D

cj -- like you I have gone over this race to determine how to handicap this type of race in the future.

In hindsight I now see that the pace I choose was incorrect for this race, the trick for me is to understand when to adjust that estimated pace figure.

I’ll email my thoughts over the next few days – from your post I see that you and I are on the same path. Excellent post cj

[JustRalph]

Mike would never make a statement like that. He does not believe any horse he has ridden is in Holy Bulls class, at least at this point. I love the, I know someone who knows someone statements. No offese to the original poster, they may have heard that, but I know its not true.

From the Bloodhorse Article today:

After the colt broke his maiden by 10 lengths last October at Santa Anita, Smith came back all excited, having once again felt the speed and power of Holy Bull through his son.

"Wow!" he exclaimed. "He reminds me so much of Holy Bull."

:lol: :lol: It looks like Diane may be vindicated.........:lol:

Smith told anyone who would listen that this was the colt that was going to "redeem his father's name in the Kentucky Derby."

[how cliche]

There are only a couple of topics I'd like to chime in on here.

Why did Giacomo win?
I think he was trained the best, or trained the least poorly of all the entrants in this year's running. Look at his past performances and compare them to so many lesser stakes winners trained by John Shireffs and owned by Jerry Moss. He was brought into this win in the same manner as many a past upset stake winner under his tutelage. He fit's a known m.o. Just recently a runner named Stanley Park won a G2 under a near identical training regimen.

How did the SoCal horses have an impact when everyone believed they were the worst horses in the race?
Dan Montillion brought up an excellent point earlier in the thread which dealt with long breaks in training for all horses based in SoCal, due to record rainfall in the LA basin. There was a point in January I remember when no runner was allowed to train in the morning for 16 straight days at SA or HOL. So yes, Dan makes a plausible case about the horses being behind in conditioning for the SA Derby, but then catching up for the KY Derby. Very astute observation.

The last is about breeding & when a sire has his best years of production. RXB brings this up. You're right. It does happen when the sire is older, because one of the most important things a younger sire can do is throw out win early runners. Otherwise their get will be ignored at the sales. They're being bred to these win at 2 mares, and they're losing stoutness in their formative years as stallions. It's only after they're proven themselves with early career winners that they get stamina influenced and sound mares, if they're lucky. The entire breed has shifted to an emphasis on winning early and speed, and a breed that will not excel at 10-12f. The classic distance races are starting to be won more by horses who hold on.

[GMB@BP]

There is an online chat today with him, maybe you can ask to clarify. He talkes about Holy Bull with reverance, like he was something out of the ordinary.

[nick777]

My software only had 4 horses rated as S, or deep closers: Andromeda's Hero, Greater Good, Giacomo, and Don't Get Mad. Of these four, Giacomo's Sham Stakes earned the best figure.

I am in no way trying to say I would have picked this horse, wasn't going to happen. I'm just saying, and this was the key, IF software determined the projected pace was going to be so fast as to favor deep closers, Giacomo was certainly possible. I don't think too many would argue if I said a very fast pace was predictable, even though I wasn't smart enough to predict it myself.

Here were the E and E/P horses and their last pace figure, Beyer scale:

High Limit 116
Flower Alley 96
Greeley's Galaxy 114
Spanish Chestnut 117
Bandini 113
Bellamy Road 114
Going Wild 105
Buzzard's Bay 97

So you had five very fast horses all projected to be within one length of each other after 6f, literally screaming speed duel. A computer definitely could have come up with Giacomo on top, in my opinion, with solid handicapping. I just wish I could have. :D


I don't use software, but i would like to hear about a software formula that picked Giacomo.

"IF"

computers don't use "IF's"

your IF is the Sham race, my IF is the SA Derby

Wilko came from 7th to finish 3rd
Giacomo came from 5th to finish 4th

Which one will the computer pick, i would guess the most recent one, in a tiebreaker situation like this.

Greater Good and Don't Get Mad both come from farther off the pace than anyone else in the field, neither hit the board.

The truth is this, Closing Argument was on the pace, 1st group, Afleet Alex was mid pack, 2nd group, Giacomo came from the far back, 3rd group

The race didn't really favor any particular style of horse, in my opinion

The early speed faltered, which everyone anticipated, but the late runners also faltered, but nobody has mentioned that

[46zilzal]

I don't use software, but i would like to hear about a software formula that picked Giacomo.
Several members of BOTH Sartin ALums and V/DC messenrger (yahoogroups.com) used Speculator to pick him

[46zilzal]

There is no way any software could pick Giacomo, it is impossible, you would need intuition and the ability to read between the lines in the form.
Harry and Ted both picked him on top

[nick777]

Several members of BOTH Sartin ALums and V/DC messenrger (yahoogroups.com) used Speculator to pick him


That's not true

They picked him in the top 4-5-6 horses with a shot

If you put all the software programs together you would have had the whole field picked.

The majority of software programs picked Bellamy Road and Afleet Alex

[46zilzal]

That's not true
The majority of software programs picked Bellamy Road and Afleet Alex

I am the moderator of one group and a participant in the other and YES TWO poeple picked him using that software

[nick777]

I am the moderator of one group and a participant in the other and YES TWO poeple picked him using that software


They may have picked him because he was an overlay and had a shot, but the software did not pick him on top, or the top 3.

I saw those yahoo groups's picks who claimed they picked Giacomo, it was not the 1st choice the software picked, ok

[46zilzal]

"Date: Sat May 7, 2005 6:29 pm
Subject: Congratulations to Harry XXXXX on his Derby

Harry is a pretty new member to the group, but he must know his way
around horse racing. Good work, feel free to post how you did it. We
are humbled."

[46zilzal]

From: "Ted XXXXXX
Date: Sat May 7, 2005 4:55 pm
Subject: Derby Picks musefully
Better late than never...

10 Giacomo
16 Bellamy Road

14 Wilko
12 Afleet

Ted

and I can see how they did it

[46zilzal]

They may have picked him because he was an overlay and had a shot, but the software did not pick him on top, or the top 3.
He was in MY top three too but I was NOT betting thre race as too risky

[46zilzal]

The race didn't really favor any particular style of horse, in my opinion
The simple NATURE of the distance, the surface and the energy qualifications necessary SCREAM that you have to be a Sustained or Sustained/Presser to win it.

[nick777]

"Date: Sat May 7, 2005 6:29 pm
Subject: Congratulations to Harry XXXXX on his Derby

Harry is a pretty new member to the group, but he must know his way
around horse racing. Good work, feel free to post how you did it. We
are humbled."


Show it

the software formula that picked Giacomo and the corresponding numbers that have him ranked higher than everyone else.

It's non existent

Prove me wrong if you can

There is no angle that could have made him better than everyone else

Speed-others faster, Spanish Chestnut
Stalker-others better, High Fly
Closer- others better, Greater Good
Beyer-Bellamy Road
Breeding-Bandini
Jockey-Bailey
Trainer-Lukas
Dosage index-Buzzards Bay
Class-Wilko

whatever category you choose, he didn't make the top 3 in any of them, and these software programs take every angle and incorporate it into picking the most probable winner.

[46zilzal]

Show it.
the software formula that picked Giacomo and the corresponding numbers that have him ranked higher than everyone else.


I did not WRITE it and am NOT PRIVVY to the algorithms. These people used it (according to the guidlines that had MANY of the past several Derbies including Funny Cide and War Emblem) to pick the winner...Can't explian in any better than that...

Go to the group and see for yourself V/DC Messenger has the screen up..but if you do not understand how that software is used, it won't make a much sense to you as it should.

[46zilzal]

Sbetter than everyone else

Speed-others faster, Spanish Chestnut
Stalker-others better, High Fly
Closer- others better, Greater Good
Beyer-Bellamy Road
Breeding-Bandini
Jockey-Bailey
Trainer-Lukas
Dosage index-Buzzards Bay
Class-Wilko

whatever category you choose, he didn't make the top 3 in any of them, and these software programs take every angle and incorporate it into picking the most probable winner.
he did not make YOUR criteria, but Sartinist's don't USE YOUR criteria as they just LOOK AT THE HORSE AND IT'S ENERGY DISTRIBUTION

[46zilzal]

One of the aspects of the advanced programs is that they predict what the odds probability guidelines are in wagering. If the overlay (probable odds RANKING to probabliity of winning rank) is sufficienlty LARGE enough, it becomes the wagering choice

[Tom]

HR had Giaco as either #2 or #3 best late pace hoirse, depending on paceline. Last race nailed him #2, and Afleet alex #1. Late pace is the second and third fractions.

(unfortunately, I didn't have him....but to say NO PROGRAM could pick him is crazy - the posts are the Sartin boards clearly show some did.)

[Lasix1]

HR had Giaco as either #2 or #3 best late pace hoirse, depending on paceline. Last race nailed him #2, and Afleet alex #1. Late pace is the second and third fractions.

(unfortunately, I didn't have him....but to say NO PROGRAM could pick him is crazy - the posts are the Sartin boards clearly show some did.)
Tom's right, as this Sartin screen shows. Note that Giacomo is tied for first on the odds line at 8/5.

CD0507 10 10.0 D G1 3 $2,000,000 RC=89 lbs TMPAR=203.53 6:04PM
P E R C E P T O R I
 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! "  ! "  "
###PN NAME Ld# SR# EPR# LPR# CPR# TT# HID# FW# FX# #TOT I#R# # DIFF#
- . . . . . . . . . / - . / - /
#1# 4 NOBLE1 # 80# 96.8# 87.3# 95.4# 98.6# 93.4# 94.5# 98.4# #664.5#5# #-23.3#
#2#10 GIACO4 # 87# 95.1# 95.3# 99.0#100.0# 99.1# 99.8# 99.4# #687.8#1# # #
#3#12 AFLEE1 # 82# 85.0#100.0# 96.7# 96.2#100.0#100.0# 99.1# #677.0#4# #-10.8#
#4#14 WILKO3 # 86# 97.2# 93.4# 98.9# 97.8# 96.8# 99.1# 99.8# #682.9#3# #- 4.9#
#5#16 BELLA1 # 89#100.0# 92.9#100.0# 98.4# 96.8# 99.6#100.0# #687.7#2# #- 0.1#
3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 3 4 5 3 5
P E R C E P T O R II
 ! ! "  ! ! ! ! "  ! "  "
###PN NAME Ld# SR# #TOTAL# 1F# 2F# 3F# 2C# #TOTII#R# # DIFF#
- . . / - . . . . / - . / - /
#1# 4 NOBLE1 # 80# # 98.9# 99.3# 99.4# 94.5# 99.5# #491.5#4# #- 4.9#
#2#10 GIACO4 # 87# # 99.8# 98.0#100.0# 97.9# 98.9# #494.6#2# #- 1.9#
#3#12 AFLEE1 # 82# # 98.6# 95.4# 97.2#100.0# 96.1# #487.3#5# #- 9.2#
#4#14 WILKO3 # 86# # 99.6# 99.3# 98.7# 97.2# 99.3# #494.1#3# #- 2.3#
#5#16 BELLA1 # 89# #100.0#100.0# 99.5# 97.0#100.0# #496.4#1# # #
3 4 4 5 3 4 4 4 4 5 3 4 5 3 5
LATE/EARLY DIFFERENCE GRAPH (EX)
# PNcNAME Ld LATE|EARLY TOT-R
__________________________________________________ _____________________________
1 4 NOBLE1 -2.5 | 163.5-4
<-|
__________________________________________________ _____________________________
210 GIACO4 -12.7 | 164.9-2
<-----------|
__________________________________________________ _____________________________
312 AFLEE1 -27.3 | 163.0-5
<--------------------------|
__________________________________________________ _____________________________
414 WILKO3 -8.7 | 164.6-3
<-------|
__________________________________________________ _____________________________
516 BELLA1 -5.5 | 165.3-1
<----|
__________________________________________________ _____________________________
EX-L V-L M-L <E> M-E V-E EX-E
BOTTOM LINE -- BETTING LINE (EX)
IDE# PNcNAME Ld SR BAL LS TIE ODDS TRKDISTS M/L DAYS AGE
2 10 GIACO4 87 4 21.3 * 8-5 HOL 8.5D 50/1 28 3 86 1
5 16 BELLA1 89 5 21.3 * 8-5 AQU 9.0D 5/2 28 3 89 1
3 12 AFLEE1 82 6 17.5 * 5-2 OP 9.0D 9/2 21 3 86 2
4 14 WILKO3 86 6 17.5 * 5-2 HOL 8.5D 20/1 28 3 86 1
1 4 NOBLE1 80 9 10.0 5-1 GP 9.0D 12/1 35 3 87 2

[sevenall]

I know that this will probably start a "Handicapping Magic sucks" debate....but the questioned was asked regarding what possible programs or formulas could put Giacomo in the top 3 selections.

I use the Handicapping Magician software which is the earlier version of the Master Magician. Typically, I use the last two pace lines on each horse for my Derby handicapping. The program calculates both the PBS rating (Pace Balanced Speed) and the PPF (Projected Power Fraction). Here's how the top ratings in each of these categories broke down

PBS
Bellamy Road 107 (Wood Memorial)
Giacomo 100 (San Felipe Stakes)
Wilko 99 (San Felipe Stakes)

PPF
Afleet Alex +17 (Arkansas Derby)
Sun King + 11
Bellamy Road +10

Clearly, the San Felipe Stakes was highly rated as the winner came from that race (as did the 4th, 5th & 6th horses) and it was run in a fast time.

If everyone is basing their opinion on whether Giacomo was a contender because of his Beyer figures...maybe they were wrong? Take a look at the raw DRF speed figures and ignore the variant. Who looks competive based on those figures?

I know that the raw DRF figure can't be predictive...right? But who won the race? It looks like the Wood Memorial and the San Felipe Stakes were the fast preps.

If Consolidator hadn't broken his leg....who knows?

[PaceAdvantage]

He talkes about Holy Bull with reverance, like he was something out of the ordinary.

As well he should! Holy Bull was, in my opinion, the best 3yo to step on the racetrack since Sunday Silence / Easy Goer....and there hasn't been one like him since....

Which is why I am so flustered to hear Mike Smith say something like that....

As for what So.Cal.Fan typed, she has been a longtime member, and great contributor to this board. If she says something, I have absolutely no problem taking her on her word. A simple search on her posts will show you where she is coming from (serious connections to the southern Cali. racing scene), and why you shouldn't simply toss her comments aside.

[cj]

Nick,


I don't get it, I layed out a perfectly plausible scenario where software could have come up with Giacomo. All I was saying is that it was possible, yet you still say it isn't. We'll have to agree to disagree.

[so.cal.fan]

Dan M:
"S.C. Fan

With all of the rain in so. Cal this year I wonder if the California contingent was not simply behind in training/foundation during the California preps and are simply catching and passing the others as their training returns to normal".


Good point, Dan....and I'm sure this is a factor, and most of us missed that point....I sure did. Most of my handicapping pals that were at Santa Anita all meet, discounted the SA Derby, just as Frankel did.

[nick777]

Nick,


I don't get it, I layed out a perfectly plausible scenario where software could have come up with Giacomo. All I was saying is that it was possible, yet you still say it isn't. We'll have to agree to disagree.


I just don't see what angle could have been used to make him the top pick

The best closer ?
He hadn't passed a horse in the stretch all year

The computer would have to know Smith was holding him back and conserving him for the Derby, and no software can do that

[so.cal.fan]

Dan M. made the post:

"With all of the rain in so. Cal this year I wonder if the California contingent was not simply behind in training/foundation during the California preps and are simply catching and passing the others as their training returns to normal".


I don't think Mike Smith held back this horse, Nick. It just makes sense that Dan is probably correct, and while this sure wasn't the only factor in the outcome of the Derby....it was one. I'm buying into that theory. Since Dan posted this, I have spoken to several horsemen who agree.
I overlooked this.

[nick777]

Dan M. made the post:

"With all of the rain in so. Cal this year I wonder if the California contingent was not simply behind in training/foundation during the California preps and are simply catching and passing the others as their training returns to normal".


I don't think Mike Smith held back this horse, Nick. It just makes sense that Dan is probably correct, and while this sure wasn't the only factor in the outcome of the Derby....it was one. I'm buying into that theory. Since Dan posted this, I have spoken to several horsemen who agree.
I overlooked this.



An example that justifies both success and failure is not a reason, just pointless.

They ran good because they were behind in training ?

I would have heard the exact same thing if they ran like crap.

They ran good because the temperature was hotter than normal and they are more acclimatized to it, simple enough.

And i guaratee you, Smith was holding back Giacomo in the preps, he is the only person to ever ride this horse, and had nothing but Derby on his mind all year with this guy

[46zilzal]

I just don't see what angle could have been used to make him the top pick


okay well noted

[Light]

Nick Quote:They ran good because the temperature was hotter than normal and they are more acclimatized to it, simple enough.

Do you use ambient temperature as one of your main handicapping tools?If so, how do you know what temperature a particular horse prefers?

[nick777]

Nick Quote:They ran good because the temperature was hotter than normal and they are more acclimatized to it, simple enough.

Do you use ambient temperature as one of your main handicapping tools?If so, how do you know what temperature a particular horse prefers?


There is no other logical explanation.

Taking the game of soccer, where a lot of running is involved

Teams have stated many times, they struggle playing in Mexico because they are not used to the altitude, and Russia, because they are not used to the cold.

It gives their opponents a decisive advantage

Simple science, people and animals adapt to their environment

Horses living in cold climate grow more body hair to adapt to cold weather.

In rare cases, like this one, where all the west coast horses ran well, one must think the climate was a major factor in this outcome.

[so.cal.fan]

I agree that weather can be a factor and often is, however.....
in the case of the West Coast horses......anyone who has been at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia all winter and early spring will tell you we never saw any warm weather......lots and lots of rain and cool days, some downright cold, at least by our standards.
It was not a pleasant winter here, weatherwise.

[Pace Cap'n]

Just now getting around to reading last week's Sport's Illustrated.

From "10 Tips For The Derby":

#9. Don't write off the contingent from the West Coast......Since 1980, the SA Derby has produced seven Derby winners, a rate of success equaled only by the Florida Derby.

When even SI sees it coming.......

[nick777]

I agree that weather can be a factor and often is, however.....
in the case of the West Coast horses......anyone who has been at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia all winter and early spring will tell you we never saw any warm weather......lots and lots of rain and cool days, some downright cold, at least by our standards.
It was not a pleasant winter here, weatherwise.


If that is true, then it would make even more sense that they ran well.

They probably missed their hot weather, and were happier than the other horses to get it Derby day.

The fact is, they adapt to the environment at a young age, a few months away from it, won't undo the prior years of adaptation.

If it was 1 or 2 horses, i would dismiss it, but all of them ran past their form lines and expectations.

Even Wilko beat 14 horses while bleeding

[chickenhead]

Never realized it was that warm in England, but you must be right. Probably why Wilko has such bad feet, from running on the hot sand all his youth. And he's small too, stunted by the UV I'm sure.

[Light]

Nick Quote:There is no other logical explanation.

Reading this thread,I found several other logical explanations. So the warm temperatures at CD was the main factor? Prove it.

[Light]

Actually I'll save you the trouble.I'll disprove your theory.Temperature was 76 degrees and cloudy.Ideal weather for any runner.

[nick777]

Nick Quote:There is no other logical explanation.

Reading this thread,I found several other logical explanations. So the warm temperatures at CD was the main factor? Prove it.


Oh yeah, not being able to train made them better

Sure buddy, how could it not

You and chickenhead sound like you got the same momma

The temperature was 80+, you got a rewind button on your vcr

[Tom]

It has always been my belief that horses prefered COOLER weather. When Florida horses ship up north to AQU in the spring, many improve running in the cooler weather rather than the southern heat.

And I learned long ago that just because I couldn't comprehend something didn't make it impossible to be. Nick, if you have checked out the output of EVERY program out there, and none of them had the winner on top, then you can make those comments. Not until. And whoever said a program has to make a pick? Has to have a horse on top to mean anything? Maybe computer handicapping is not your forte. Peple did use programs and they did bet on the winner. That reality makes your theory rather weak.

[nick777]

It has always been my belief that horses prefered COOLER weather. When Florida horses ship up north to AQU in the spring, many improve running in the cooler weather rather than the southern heat.

And I learned long ago that just because I couldn't comprehend something didn't make it impossible to be. Nick, if you have checked out the output of EVERY program out there, and none of them had the winner on top, then you can make those comments. Not until. And whoever said a program has to make a pick? Has to have a horse on top to mean anything? Maybe computer handicapping is not your forte. Peple did use programs and they did bet on the winner. That reality makes your theory rather weak.


Hey bananahead, show me one

And if anybody else wants to argue about the temperature, it was f#%n snowin, ok

god dam people just wanna argue about anything, like its my fault your horses lost

pardon my language, i assume its acceptable, i have yet to meet a gambler who doesn't swear

[RXB]

You might stop calling people 'bananahead' and such.

[PaceAdvantage]

Hey bananahead, show me one

And if anybody else wants to argue about the temperature, it was f#%n snowin, ok

god dam people just wanna argue about anything, like its my fault your horses lost

pardon my language, i assume its acceptable, i have yet to meet a gambler who doesn't swear

Language may be acceptable, but attitude is definitely not. This kind of thing may fly over in off-topic, but not on the horse racing topics.....

Therefore, consider yourself "advised"

[BIG RED]

That was so condescending.

[NoDayJob]

I just don't see what angle could have been used to make him the top pick

The best closer ?
He hadn't passed a horse in the stretch all year

The computer would have to know Smith was holding him back and conserving him for the Derby, and no software can do that


:) Maybe somebody out there can use my Derby numbers and eliminate all the contenders but the winner. :)

-Derby numbers-

--- Int. - Fin.
-1- 218 - 176
-2- 201 - 173
-3- 225 - 189
-4- 206 - 178
-5- 213 - 168
-6- 217 - 188
-7- 217 - 180
-8- 197 - 169
-9- 196 - 185
10- 229 - 195**
11- 220 - 184
12- 210 - 195**
13- 225 - 173
14- 241 - 203**
15- 214 - 179
16- 243 - 204**
17- 240 - 202**
18- 222 - 170
19- 230 - 162
20- 229 - 191

**Contenders

Int. = 2nd call
Fin. = Finish

NDJ

[nick777]

Seriously, how do you respond to people who have no motive other than starting an argument, and irritating people.

The least they could do is produce factual evidence and not alter the truth to their liking.

I'm sure this place, like the track, has its share of guys who go digging through the trash for winning tickets, just wish they would shut the f#%k up sometimes, but i'm sure they never will.

That bananahead remark was for the guy with the chimp in the avatar, somewhat appropriate i thought.

[NoDayJob]

Seriously, how do you respond to people who have no motive other than starting an argument, and irritating people.

The least they could do is produce factual evidence and not alter the truth to their liking.

I'm sure this place, like the track, has its share of guys who go digging through the trash for winning tickets, just wish they would shut the f#%k up sometimes, but i'm sure they never will.

That bananahead remark was for the guy with the chimp in the avatar, somewhat appropriate i thought.

:lol: Discussions, yes! Arguments, no! :lol:

NDJ

[RXB]

Seriously, how do you respond to people who have no motive other than starting an argument, and irritating people.

I ignore you.

[kenwoodallpromos]

CJ's figures had Giacomo as having the highest positive ROI of any runner in the 2005 Kentucky Derby. Factual evidence.
Those who follow value picked him. I picked him and the other 13 longshots and have shown email proof of having sent my picks as High Limit and all horses to my mother-in-law. $30.00 in win tickets on 15 horses would have got you a return of $102.60. Factual evidence.
You do not Have to pick just 1 horse if picking a lot of longshots get you a profit. I believe Proud Accolade proved that in adition to AA and BR.
If everybody wants to bet the overlays fine by me.
I will be betting the other 2 in Saturday's Lost in the Fog race. $4.00 in bets as I am willing to lose that much!
I would not mess with Tom's monkey- he smokes, know American Sign Language, gives good racing tips, and wrote the Beatles hit "Everbody's Got Something To Hide Except Me and My Monkey". Just don't let him run out of bananas!LOL! :lol:

[JustRalph]

hey Nick..........fill us in on who you are. No real details.........just '

What country are you in? And .......how did you get to be such an ass?

On to the topic;

I don't think you can take much away from this Derby. It was a pace melt down that favored the horses and jocks who timed it right. No different than a 10k claimer with a couple of rabbits. Bellamy road may or may not have been hurt. So, he was probably the best horse. But he didn't win. He still ran a big race and will probably come back for some big wins. It happens. Onward and upward

[wes]

From the Observation Deck ...

The 2005 Kentucky Derby - May 5, 2005

Handicap:

Twenty horses for this 1 1/4 mile contest is ridiculous! To make things a little more manageable, five non-contenders (in my judgment, of course) were removed from the list which changed the program numbers. So, when betting the horses in this year's Derby, bet by using the NAME of the colt. Important

By virtue of his outstanding performance in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, Bellamy Road is given the role of the favorite and the one to beat. If Castellano can keep him free of traffic from post 16, he could win it. As shown above, the colts that can run within 3 lengths of the expected pace of 1:35.2 are Wilco, Bellamy Road, and Giacomo. Also, High Fly can run the pace but is weaker on the back end. Can Jerry "The Son of God" Bailey can pull it off? Perhaps...

Afleet Alex is another good one, but his two best races were at the distance of six furlongs which tempers the illustration above. Still, only four winners in the past twenty years have failed to demonstrate an ability to run a 630 Late Speed at 1 1/8 miles. In this contest, only Bellamy Road and Afleet Alex (albeit, with a slow pace) have done it.

Make it Bellamy Road to win. With a little racing luck, either Wilco or Giacomo could pull a stunning upset. In addition, High Fly and Afleet Alex should be included in the exotics wagering. Want one more interesting long shot possibility? Note the Ability Factor of Greeley's Galaxy (see the PM Table shown above). There is a good chance we'll be seeing a boxcar payoff!

Here is proof that some had the horse in their handicapping.

He show three horse on his web site as best closers and the win horse is one of them. WATT speed @ pace program


wes

[46zilzal]

hey Nick..........fill us in on who you are. No real details.........just '

What country are you in? And .......how did you get to be such an ass?


what does that matter?

[JustRalph]

what does that matter?

it provides perspective..........

[Light]

Nick said: The temperature was 80+, you got a rewind button on your vcr

My source for 76 degrees was Bris:

Off Time: 6:11 Start: 20 went. Good for all. Won driving. Track: Fast Weather: Cloudy 76

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant.cgi?type=inc&country=USA&track=CD&date=2005-05-07&enc=454C34342A10191C14037C7A5641BDD6F2F4F0D1C65724 457550BC9BF1

What source you got?

Even if I grant you that Bris is somehow wrong,your theory on warm temperatures favoring westcoast horses is also disproven by the fact that 2 Eastcoast horses ran 2nd and 3rd,failing by only a small margin.

Furthermore,if you disagree with someone,you would be more effective in getting your point accross with a valid rebuttle based on facts instead of knee jerk responses. Otherwise you only debase yourself and lose credibility.

[46zilzal]

it provides perspective..........

come from rational folks...it comes from THEM..... their expereinces, their education, their thought processes NOT whether they reside in Belgium, Tasmania, or Finland.

[nick777]

hey Nick..........fill us in on who you are. No real details.........just '

What country are you in? And .......how did you get to be such an ass?

On to the topic;

I don't think you can take much away from this Derby. It was a pace melt down that favored the horses and jocks who timed it right. No different than a 10k claimer with a couple of rabbits. Bellamy road may or may not have been hurt. So, he was probably the best horse. But he didn't win. He still ran a big race and will probably come back for some big wins. It happens. Onward and upward

I've been to Columbus, Ohio, if there is a worse place out there, i don't wanna see it.

To quote Ice-T, Columbus, Ohio, you can suck my big fat _ _ _ _, end quote, Bodycount

[nick777]

Nick said: The temperature was 80+, you got a rewind button on your vcr

My source for 76 degrees was Bris:

Off Time: 6:11 Start: 20 went. Good for all. Won driving. Track: Fast Weather: Cloudy 76

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant.cgi?type=inc&country=USA&track=CD&date=2005-05-07&enc=454C34342A10191C14037C7A5641BDD6F2F4F0D1C65724 457550BC9BF1

What source you got?

Even if I grant you that Bris is somehow wrong,your theory on warm temperatures favoring westcoast horses is also disproven by the fact that 2 Eastcoast horses ran 2nd and 3rd,failing by only a small margin.

Furthermore,if you disagree with someone,you would be more effective in getting your point accross with a valid rebuttle based on facts instead of knee jerk responses. Otherwise you only debase yourself and lose credibility.


My source

The live broadcast of the Derby, which i recorded

Quote from 10-15 minutes into the broadcast, "It is an unusually hot day here at Churchill, with temperature ranging into the 80's"

[keilan]

Nice knowing ya Nicky -- I'd say you're outta here :jump:

[nick777]

hey Nick..........fill us in on who you are. No real details.........just '

What country are you in? And .......how did you get to be such an ass?

On to the topic;

I don't think you can take much away from this Derby. It was a pace melt down that favored the horses and jocks who timed it right. No different than a 10k claimer with a couple of rabbits. Bellamy road may or may not have been hurt. So, he was probably the best horse. But he didn't win. He still ran a big race and will probably come back for some big wins. It happens. Onward and upward


I can share even more 1st hand accounts of my time in that hellhole you call your home, Columbus, if you really wanna hear em.

I like a lot of parts of America, but i guarantee you Ohio is not one of them.

Although i did see Bigfoot there, strolling through the woods

[46zilzal]

Nice knowing ya Nicky -- I'd say you're outta here
rarely agree but this is one time

[nick777]

rarely agree but this is one time


Yeah, quoting Ice-T is a surefire way to become outcast

What are your problems ?

I say the temp was 80+ for the derby, people dispute it

If you recorded the race, look at it again, and see for yourself

This troubles some people to the point where they start lipping off

Well your problem is with the weather gods, not me

[JustRalph]

I've been to Columbus, Ohio, if there is a worse place out there, i don't wanna see it.

To quote Ice-T, Columbus, Ohio, you can suck my big fat _ _ _ _, end quote, Bodycount

Funny........ I don't find that quote in the song.........

http://www.lyricsdepot.com/ice-t/body-count.html

Class act.....all the way. Real urban sophisticate, I can tell.

Hey Nick........how is the weather in South Africa?

Port Elizabeth nice this time of year?

[nick777]

Funny........ I don't find that quote in the song.........

http://www.lyricsdepot.com/ice-t/body-count.html

Class act.....all the way. Real urban sophisticate, I can tell.

Hey Nick........how is the weather in South Africa?

Port Elizabeth nice this time of year?


My mistake, he was talking about Columbus, Georgia, you can see the confusion.

The song is appropriately named, "Freedom Of Speech", from the album, "Bodycount", there is a reference to Ohio somewhere on the album, but it matters not, i've been to 10+ different states and can assure you, Ohio was the worst.

The weather in South Africa is very pleasant, me and HHH are out and about beating on some slaves, they have been getting quite lippy of late.

I'll send you a postcard, i am known as the Colonel around here, keep an eye out for it.

[Equineer]

Nick777,

Oh my God, are/were you a full Colonel equivalent to an American O-6?

If so and your DOR precedes mine, I will be eating crow (big time) since I have been strutting around within the Off Topics forum as our ranking officer. :)

BTW, besides the publicly reported incident in the Sham, I would still like to know in which race(s), and where within such race(s), Giacomo may have thrown a shoe? See the link (http://www.majorwager.com/fusetalk/messageview.cfm?catid=22&threadid=130107&CFID=1394684&CFTOKEN=83635925) Pace Cap'n provided alleging that he threw a shoe in multiple preps.

[Pace Cap'n]

Perhaps the poster simply misspoke when he referred to races. About eight posts down he refers to the lost-shoe race in the singular.

[ElKabong]

Columbus, Ohio? I hear it's a very cool place. If I can score some tix for the September TEXAS-tOSU game thru some UT buds (and sit amongst the Orange), I'm there.

As for Giacamo, there were 3 folks on the del mar board that picked him before the race. One of em also nailed Wilco in the BC....How, I have no clue, but they did...and posted it well before the race.

Can't make $$ if you bet what everyone else does. Props to those that cashed.

[Equineer]

Perhaps the poster simply misspoke when he referred to races. About eight posts down he refers to the lost-shoe race in the singular.You may very well, or even probably, be quite right... but my curiosity was aroused anyway...

I had read Moneyline's two posts mentioning shoe losses/loss, including where he said Giacomo "had some kind of trouble in his efforts whether it be losing a shoe, running wide, or a wet track"... but grammatically, I didn't automatically interpret losing a shoe any differently than running wide (i.e., 4 times, including the Sham where he also threw a shoe).

[nick777]

Columbus, Ohio? I hear it's a very cool place. If I can score some tix for the September TEXAS-tOSU game thru some UT buds (and sit amongst the Orange), I'm there.

As for Giacamo, there were 3 folks on the del mar board that picked him before the race. One of em also nailed Wilco in the BC....How, I have no clue, but they did...and posted it well before the race.

Can't make $$ if you bet what everyone else does. Props to those that cashed.



Ok, here's the deal

i spent a couple seasons in Ohio during the 90's, i played in the M.I.S.L., for both the Canton Invaders and Cleveland Crunch.

i hated it, it was the lamest place i had ever been

to quote an old 70's song, i like the night life, i like to boogie

i stroll into a bar, and i'm getting stared down by every hick in the joint, like they've never seen a guy wearing Armani threads.

i go to dinner with one of my teamates, a South American, the whole restaurant is staring at us like we were just on America's Most Wanted.

Guys in pick up trucks are following you around town like it's rabbit season.

My roomate at our hotel where the import players stayed, walks in the room, prays for his family, and goes right to bed. I get in my car and go cruisin for action, each night is more depressing than the last.

I have trouble sleeping at night because i'm always wired after games or training, so i need a little herb to fall asleep. I pull into a gas station and tell buddy to give me a pack of rolling papers, holy f#%k man, it was like i put a shotgun to his head, he started trembling and didn't say a word, i ask another guy at the gas station, a customer, hey where can i get some rolling papers, he says, they're illegal here because they promote drug use. WTF I AM IN HELL.

Everyone stares at you, and it's creepy, like they know you're not one of them, it don't matter where, the donut shop, fast food joints, creepy stares everywhere. I ask the girl at Subway subs, why is everyone here so weird, she says, it's because they know you're not from around here.

I never thought there was a place worse than Buffalo, but then i went to Cleveland, or Canton, or Columbus, it's all the same crap, like someone asking me what's the difference between Tonnawanda and Cheektowaga, it's like stepping off one pile of s#%t right into another.

[JustRalph]

you forgot to mention the river..........you know, the one where we stalk the guys on the rafts. You know.....where the banjo music plays........

[PaceAdvantage]

Ok, here's the deal

i spent a couple seasons in Ohio during the 90's, i played in the M.I.S.L., for both the Canton Invaders and Cleveland Crunch.

Was that before or after you were taking care of horses for Frank Stronach?