Kentucky Derby

[CryingForTheHorses]

WOW what a race!!
This is one of the best races I have ever seen, This race was WELL orchestrated by a trainer and a owner who knew their horse and never tipped their hand.Hell at them odds and having Mike Smith trying for you, It doesnt get better then that. On a sad note..Its amazing to me to have 25% of the derby field and not get a sniff,Hundreds of thousands of dollars are spent on getting these animals to the derby, Those guys in the winners circle were just as shocked as the crowd.I have to give FULL credit to his trainer, My hats off off him.

[nick777]

Bottom line is this

The more you know, the less you know

An old man said that to me once at the track, now i understand what he meant.

All the greatest horse racing minds are completely retarded today, from the top trainers, horsemen, to the soundest handicappers.

A quote from the "Derby" book

"Dosage index (DI) of 4.00 or lower, a trait found in all but 3 winners since 1929."

"Ran a Beyer of 105 or higher at age 3 or 2 in a route, a key factor evident in 10 of the last 12 winners."

Those are the top 2 factors listed in order of importance in the "Book"

The top 2 finishers today, of course both had a DI of over 4.00, and neither one ran even a 100 Beyer, never mind the 105.

It's the Derby Day Massacre, i suspect foul play somewhere.

The hot weather really helped the west coast horses, that is my only observation, after the fact.

[Dan Montilion]

If you are giving FULL credit to the trainer of the winner. Does that mean Zito gets FULL credit for stinking up the joint?

Dan Montilion

[Valuist]

What a race by Closing Argument. He outdueled Bellamy Road, High Fly, Spanish Chestnut and all the other speed and barely got beat by a deep closer.

As for a projected Beyer, I'm guessing somewhere between a 100 and 105 for the winner. 105 might be pushing it, since the race collapsed late with the 27 second final quarter.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Smith was on tv yesterday with a laptop reviewing g's races and planning strategy alone. They said he always does that. He's good in stakes lately.
They said 1 of the horses gets epilepsy shots!
"I suspect foul play" I suspect speed handicappers and a clusterf___. LOL.
Ragedy Andy strikes (out) again!
Early speed doesn't win races automatically or Spanish Chestnut would win them all. The horse that croseses the wire first wins. Where was the longshot "milkshaker's" horse? No foul play there.
If you remember right, John Sherrifs is the trainer who took over Wygod's horses from the guilty milkshaker Cannanis. Sehrrifs has not been caught shaking yet. No foul play there either.
Some of us like me and Tom just like when the cheap longshots show up the bigshot handicappers, horses and horsemen!LOL! :jump:

[Secretariat]

I will be interested on the speeds analysis of this. It appeared a very fast variant for the day with fractions of the early races blistering. The 2nd race showed a 43.78 half with a 108.03 finish, and the 5th 7 furlong race showed a 44.12 half with a 120.56 finish.

Now in lieu of that I thought there might be a very quick time for the Derby as the weather was great, but it was the 3rd slowest in the last 10 years. The fractions for the Smarty Jones last year on an off-track race was 137.35-2:04.26. Charismatic ran off a 137.58-203.29 to win. Giacomo ran off a 135.88-202.75. Not overwhelming when you compare to Funny Cide's 135.75-201.19 or Fusaichi Pegasus 135.74-201.12

Either this is a very bad crop of three year olds, or every contender bounced dramatically today. Bandini, High Fly, Bellamy Road, Noble Causeway, even Afleet Alex got outrun in the stretch by Giacomo. I realize anything can happen in a horse race, but the incredibly slow in Derby standards final quarter off a moderate pace was surprising. Congrats to Giacomo. One of those ones you shake your head over.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Allowance winners ran about 1:09. Graded stakes winners ran like 1:08.5. Seems right to me for a normal track. . And Andy Beyers I think.

[Vegas711]

Lets all bury the dosage index for good along with all the breeding garbage . How many times does something have to fail before it is shown as worthless.

As far as Beyer numbers go , I have never made a dime on them either, they are not worth the paper they are written on. Not that I did this before the race becouse I didn't but if you forget about speed figures and just look at the RAW
UNADJUSTED FINAL TIMES you will see that GIACOMO had some of the fastest final times. He ran several 1 1/16 races in 141 2/5 to 141 3/5ths seconds and ran 1 1/18 final times in 149 2/5 which is faster than most of the times other horses ran.

Maybe looking at Raw Times and ignoring track to track and variants is the way to go.Maybe JIM BRADSHAW was correct when he said that making adjustments is voodoo handicapping. Maybe raw times are more correct than adding a variant afterall how do you really know that a track was fast 3 or slow 4 on a given day. The answer is you don't you are just guessing which may be more harmful to your bottom line.

[Overlay]

I can't speak for the general accuracy of predictions based on breeding, but what I read on the horse I liked (High Fly) said that he was bred to only go nine furlongs, and that's about what he went. (Did I listen? Nooooooo.....)

[Secretariat]

Allowance winners ran about 1:09. Graded stakes winners ran like 1:08.5. Seems right to me for a normal track. . And Andy Beyers I think.


If a normal track, why such a slow time on a moderate pace? monarchos took advantage of a fast pace to set a blistering final time. My point kendall if this was a normal track, this was a very slow Derby, the third slowest in last 10 years, and Smarty was on an off track last year, and indicates a weak field of three year olds.

[PaceAdvantage]

So now it might be a weak crop? A few days ago, it was a very strong crop. A few months ago, it was a weak crop.....

Will someone please make up their collective minds so we can get on with the show!!!??!!

[Richard]

Statistically,it's now 10-1 against the 'como achieving Triple Crown status.Only one horse (Assault,1946) has done so with closing odds of higher than 4-1 in the Derby.However,to put it mildly,this horse has already fooled a lot of people,yours truly included.

[Kreed]

Good Sunday Morning ... Guys, no S**T, Thursday morning b4 me & Sol took
off for a few days, I grabbed the DRF & later "did" the KD only to Star** both
Giacomo & Closing Arguement as live longshots. I would up with 7 horses:
4-6-10-12-15-16-18 ......... BUT my point is WHY All the Shock? Yes, anyone
could arrive at 12 & 16 & even Bandini (#15) ... there's no thought required
in that. BUT why the Shock over Giacomo? As for Closing Arguement, #18,
listen up please: Just trace his victories starting with his 1st race at Saratoga. Then, At GP, on a Very Fast surface he Beat High Fly (a speedster) & pulled away. The only thing I did NOT like about C.A. was the 1 race on 4/16 --- it seemed too little prep for the KD. PS: I think the Tomlinson's are near crap, but did anyone notice C.A.'s Rating of 480 for the 1-1/4? When has any horse
got that high a rating for the KD? That pedigree woman Lauren Stitch wrote
a whole column picking Andromeda's Hero (Tomlinson, 415) ... so whats up
with a 480?

[Kreed]

Vegas, I sort of agree with you 100%. There's a LOT of adjusting going on and
where does it break down? Yet, using totally Raw times probably would not
work. Look at the #9 Greeley's Galaxy win in the G2 Illinois Derby w/ a Beyer
of 106. LOL, now that race was full of NoBodys. And if you confined yourself
to ONLY G1 winners, you have High Fly, Afleet Alex, Wilko, Bandini, Bellamy,
Buzzards Bay: 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 20. I don't think the Beyers are accurate.
And I still think too much is made over HUGE WINNING MARGINS & WET TRACKS
& ONE TURN MILES. But yet, I can't seem to find TV's & Dist Adjustments &
Track-2-Track Adjusments. What's a bettor to do?

[Valuist]

The only thing impressive about the Derby was the first 6 furlongs. Giacomo was basically the last man standing. I will take a strong stand against him at Pimlico. Whenever there's a very fast pace in the Derby, its noticeably slower for the Preakness. This race just fell apart around the three-sixteenths pole.

[46zilzal]

If a normal track, why such a slow time on a moderate pace? monarchos took advantage of a fast pace to set a blistering final time. My point kendall if this was a normal track, this was a very slow Derby, the third slowest in last 10 years, and Smarty was on an off track last year, and indicates a weak field of three year olds.

can't draw conclusions about anything major...SAMPLE error othwerwise

[Jingle]

Vegas--you certainly have given me some food for thought and I'll explain why
although I can't say weather I agree or disagree with you re Raw Times.

After I read your post I put the data for the Derby through Taulbot's Pace Calculator. For those not familiar with the Calculator it calculates Speed of the Race, Pace of the Race, and Horse's Final Time usually based on the DRF SR+TV. Its considered a "Raw Rating".

Here are the top 6 picks for the Derby--I'll list the Raw Rating and the Paceline used:

1 Bellamy Road 913 Last Line
2 Giacomo 897 2nd Line
3 Don't Get Mad 896 3rd Line
4 Wilko 895 2nd line
5 High Fly 894.5 Last Line
6 Noble Causeway 892.5 Last Line

Don't get me wrong--I'm not endorsing the Calculator nor did I use it for the Derby. As I said earlier, just something to think about. The programs I normally use didn't come close and either did I.

Good Handicapping

[kenwoodallpromos]

Sec- such a slow pace; Valuist- fast pace.???
Last year's splits on a sloppy track- (sprint was won in about the same time as this year's):
2003- 22.99, 46.73, 1:11.80, 1:37.35, 2:04.06.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Those were 2004 splits!
G 2005 ran a slower last 2 calls this year; total 1.31 seconds faster this year. Now compare the winners' trips.

[Bubbles]

Good Sunday Morning ... Guys, no S**T, Thursday morning b4 me & Sol took
off for a few days, I grabbed the DRF & later "did" the KD only to Star** both
Giacomo & Closing Arguement as live longshots. I would up with 7 horses:
4-6-10-12-15-16-18 ......... BUT my point is WHY All the Shock? Yes, anyone
could arrive at 12 & 16 & even Bandini (#15) ... there's no thought required
in that. BUT why the Shock over Giacomo? As for Closing Arguement, #18,
listen up please: Just trace his victories starting with his 1st race at Saratoga. Then, At GP, on a Very Fast surface he Beat High Fly (a speedster) & pulled away. The only thing I did NOT like about C.A. was the 1 race on 4/16 --- it seemed too little prep for the KD. PS: I think the Tomlinson's are near crap, but did anyone notice C.A.'s Rating of 480 for the 1-1/4? When has any horse
got that high a rating for the KD? That pedigree woman Lauren Stitch wrote
a whole column picking Andromeda's Hero (Tomlinson, 415) ... so whats up
with a 480?

Why the shock? Could it have been his ONE lifetime win before the Derby? ;)

Closing Argument was the last I threw out. I liked his race when he beat High Fly, and his trainer is very underrated, he knows his horses.

[highnote]

Lets all bury the dosage index for good along with all the breeding garbage .

Maybe JIM BRADSHAW was correct when he said that making adjustments is voodoo handicapping.

Vegas,

I agree with you on Jim Bradshaw. I liked his book and learned a lot from it. I use his methods when I'm at the track and don't have all my computer stuff.

I disagree with you on Dosage and breeding.

Breedingwise -- Holy Bull was a monster of a horse. He could have probably won at 12 furlongs. Or as that New Zealand gentleman wrote, "He stays longer than your mother-in-law." :D Think about a Favorite Trick, a son of Phone Trick -- neither of those horses could stay 10 furlongs -- unless the pace was ridiculously slow. They are not genetically predisposed to get the classic distances -- no way, no how.

As for Dosage -- Giacomo's Dosage is 4.33 -- not that far off the 4.00 cutoff. Plus he was rated 122 pounds in the Experimental Free Handicap which means he showed very good 2 year old form -- like one of the top 2 year olds in the entire country!

As Steve Roman wrote, "There is no evidence that Holy Bull is prepotent for any type." But if you ever saw him run, you'd know that his offspring are likely to be able to get a distance of ground.

I just wish I'd have bet him. :(

[NoDayJob]

Vegas, I sort of agree with you 100%. There's a LOT of adjusting going on and
where does it break down? Yet, using totally Raw times probably would not
work. Look at the #9 Greeley's Galaxy win in the G2 Illinois Derby w/ a Beyer
of 106. LOL, now that race was full of NoBodys. And if you confined yourself
to ONLY G1 winners, you have High Fly, Afleet Alex, Wilko, Bandini, Bellamy,
Buzzards Bay: 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 20. I don't think the Beyers are accurate.
And I still think too much is made over HUGE WINNING MARGINS & WET TRACKS
& ONE TURN MILES. But yet, I can't seem to find TV's & Dist Adjustments &
Track-2-Track Adjusments. What's a bettor to do?

Have you tried looking at the last 3 similar distance raw times, then using the best 2 of them? The top 5 numbers and those within 1 of the 5th highest are my contenders.

-Derby numbers-

--- Int. - Fin.
-1- 218 - 176
-2- 201 - 173
-3- 225 - 189
-4- 206 - 178
-5- 213 - 168
-6- 217 - 188
-7- 217 - 180
-8- 197 - 169
-9- 196 - 185
10- 229 - 195**
11- 220 - 184
12- 210 - 195**
13- 225 - 173
14- 241 - 203**
15- 214 - 179
16- 243 - 204**
17- 240 - 202**
18- 222 - 170
19- 230 - 162
20- 229 - 191

**Contenders

NDJ

[RXB]

As Steve Roman wrote, "There is no evidence that Holy Bull is prepotent for any type." But if you ever saw him run, you'd know that his offspring are likely to be able to get a distance of ground. :(

Holy Bull is a VERY hard sire to figure out. His offspring are all over the place. Some are sprinters, some are routers. Some like fast dirt, some like wet dirt, some like the grass. He's not a good debut sire, but he gets enough first-time winners that you can't throw them right out, either. So from a betting standpoint, he's not a sire that inspires much confidence.

The main positive point that I have to say about Holy Bull (besides the fact that he was an outstanding racehorse) is that most of his offspring have some talent. You won't see too many Holy Bull horses starting for 10k MCL at Mth, or 5k MCL at Mnr. They usually have the ability to run decently at a respectable level of competition under particular conditions. The problem, for both the connections and the bettors, is figuring out just what those conditions might be for each of his progeny.

[RXB]

That pedigree woman Lauren Stitch wrote
a whole column picking Andromeda's Hero (Tomlinson, 415)

I love the one-trick-pony pedigree experts come Derby time. Every year, they promote some hopeless longshot because the seventh son of the seventh son of the seventh son of the fourth dam finished second in the 1872 Epsom Derby, therefore this horse will love the 1 1/4.

If the horse is eight lengths inferior at 9f, so what if he's bred for 10 furlongs? He'll still be six or seven lengths inferior.

[Valuist]

Wilco supposedly bled but I didn't hear if it was thru the nostrils or if it was a cut on his leg(s). He was racing with Lasix so if he bled thru the Lasix he will be an automatic tossout for me from now on.

[chickenhead]

I took it to mean bled through the Lasix.

[Valuist]

Thanks. I can safely toss him out of my Preakness tris.

[how cliche]

I for one am pleased as all get out that Bellamy Emblem showed his true colors on Saturday.


He is the fastest horse of the year when left alone to dictate the tempo to his own liking. The only previous time he was eyeballed by a quality horse, Consolidator in the Lane's End Breeders' Futurity, he caved in with the greatest of ease. I genuinely dislike this horse because he's phony and has no guts. I've always doubted his determination and generosity, and took a stand against him in my betting.

He looked like an Armani, but he folded like a plain brown suit.

[cj]

I love how people have such short memories about War Emblem...this horse sat off a blazing speed horse in the Preakness, fought him off, and then held off the closing local horse in a gritty effort.

Am I the only one who saw this race? Actually, I know JR scored big on this one, so I'm sure he watched! :)

[Speed Figure]

I won't say he sat off the lead. He was 2nd by a head at both the 1st and 2nd call.

[cj]

OK Speed,

but my point was, he was hardly "left alone to dictate the tempo to his own liking." I agree about Bellamy Road, but he shouldn't be compared to a proven Champion like War Emblem, who also won the Haskell.

[how cliche]

I love how people have such short memories about War Emblem...this horse sat off a blazing speed horse in the Preakness, held fought him off, and then held off the closing local horse in a gritty effort.

Am I the only one who saw this race? Actually, I know JR scored big on this one, so I'm sure he watched! :)

I disliked War Emblem and dislike Bellamy Road. To me it's comparable to music I like. It's a matter of taste. I stand by my statement. Both are phony. He showed some courage in one race, one. I got even with him later that summer, so all's well that ends well. I love some pacesetters and pressers, so it's not their style that makes me dislike them. I love Congaree, MDO and Peace Rules as some recent examples. Each one of them displayed a willing nature that the aforementioned did not.

[classhandicapper]

I love how people have such short memories about War Emblem...this horse sat off a blazing speed horse in the Preakness, fought him off, and then held off the closing local horse in a gritty effort.

As usual, I agree. Then again I'm biased because I had him in the Derby.:cool:

[cj]

...I love Congaree, MDO and Peace Rules as some recent examples. Each one of them displayed a willing nature that the aforementioned did not.

You seem to like those horses that couldn't win the big one, or even a lot of the smaller ones...LOL.

[RXB]

I'm willing to give War Emblem some credit in the Preakness for battling through a quick pace with another horse and then hanging on for victory. However, the horses that he beat in that race weren't much. The nearby second-place finisher was a Maryland horse of no particular consequence that did little in the Belmont.

He was certainly left alone when he won the Illinois and Kentucky Derbies (both on a dawdling pace) and Haskell. His dismal efforts in the Belmont, Pacific Classic and Breeders Cup-- the other three races where he didn't get a clear lead-- put his accomplishments in perspective.

[cj]

Yes and no RXB, there was a reason he was allowed alone on the lead. Anyone challenging him early was a sure loser.

[RXB]

Yes and no RXB, there was a reason he was allowed alone on the lead. Anyone challenging him early was a sure loser.

Well, anyone who let him jog through an easy first half-mile was a sure loser, too.

MDO just wasn't a 10-furlong horse, but he was faster than War Emblem. War Emblem wouldn't have won the Derby had MDO not been crushed and shut off at the start. We know what happened in the Breeders Cup Classic that year when the two of them ran together near the front. That's why I laugh when people suggest that War Emblem would've won the Triple Crown had he broke better in the Belmont. In fact, he had virtually no chance.

[cj]

War Emblem was not the same horse come BC time. I honestly don't remember, but I'm pretty sure MDO ran in the Preakness too, didn't he?

OK, I looked it up, he was, and here was the comment:

Between foes, faltered 120 104 118 83

[RXB]

MDO ran pretty much everybody into the ground on the front end. Congaree was another horse who wasn't a 10-furlong horse but was mighty fast and talented to 9f and MDO defeated him in a prolonged duel in the '03 Classic before surrendering late to Pleasantly Perfect.

In fact, with the exception of his very narrow defeat at the hands of Buddha in the Wood Memorial, I don't think MDO ever lost a speed duel. His problems came in the final furlong of a 10-furlong race when his stamina ran low.

[RXB]

Whoops, I thought he skipped the Preakness. You right, me wrong.

[RXB]

I should add that the Wood, KD and Preakness were just the third, fourth and fifth starts of MDO's career. So if War Emblem wasn't the same horse come Breeders' Cup, I think that it's equally fair to say that MDO hadn't hit his best stride in those early stages.

In the end, each finished ahead of the other horse twice in four meetings.

[JustRalph]

I love how people have such short memories about War Emblem...this horse sat off a blazing speed horse in the Preakness, fought him off, and then held off the closing local horse in a gritty effort.

Am I the only one who saw this race? Actually, I know JR scored big on this one, so I'm sure he watched! :)

Oh yeah.....big day for me. I think CJ is right. When War Emblem was well, he was not afraid to look any of them in the eye and run away from them. I think I caught him at something like 14-1 in the Illinois Derby. Then the KY Derby with a fifty across. If my memory serves me right? He ran pretty well in some other races but Baffert said he just decided he wasn't going to do it anymore. It is weird how some just decide to hang it up. I am sure there are other examples.

But, I have the result chart for that Preakness hanging right here in my den. I caught the super for over 13k, the Exacta for over $3200 and had another fifty across on War Emblem, who paid 7.60 (a gift). I thank everybody who thought he was fake, Because I got a nice chunk of those pools.

CJ.........Magic Weisner was a straight gift from Equisim. No matter how I ran it, he would be " right there" It was something watching him close. I had the same tickets with Magic over War Emblem. He lost to WE by 3/4's of a length. Can you imagine what it would have paid had he caught WE? I was cheering him on..........one way or another I was going to get paid pretty well. It was a great time. My father and I had a great few weeks during that time. The old man was teaching me how to play while he was losing his battle to lung cancer (lived with me the last year or so) He died two days before the Belmont. Everytime I catch I nice one, I think about him..........he would have loved this last weekend...........

[how cliche]

You seem to like those horses that couldn't win the big one, or even a lot of the smaller ones...LOL.

I don't think you understand where I'm coming from, cj. I'm a fan as much, if not more, as I am a bettor. Bravery is often displayed in its truest form when shown in defeat. The three I mentioned are gamers. Real generosity on display, even in defeat. When War Emblem didn't win he quit. When a horse is like that, I will not be his fan.

[cj]

I was just joking HC, thus the LOL. I know exactly what you mean. I just have a soft spot for War Emblem as I was touting him here from before the Illinois Derby.

[Zman179]

Andy Beyer's long lost brother gave his opinion on the race:

http://www.equidaily.com/images/wde.jpg

[how cliche]

Thanks for clarifying cj. No harm no foul.

[kenwoodallpromos]

LOL.

[Macdiarmadillo]

Spanish C. and old Nick Z. sitting by the fire
Spanish C says to old Nick Z.
“I’m gonna set this race on fire”
(Singing now)
Hey now (hey now) Hey now (hey now)
Iko Iko unday
Giacomo fi no ai nanay
Giacomo fi nanay

Lookit, Mike Smith ain’t dressed in red
Iko Iko unday
Fifty to one he’ll kill you dead
Giacomo fi nanay
(Singing now)
Hey now (hey now) Hey now (hey now)
Iko Iko unday
Giacomo fi no ai nanay
Giacomo fi nanay

[sealord]

Too funny.

[PaceAdvantage]

I KNEW this song would come into play at some point! :lol:

[46zilzal]

Yes and no RXB, there was a reason he was allowed alone on the lead. Anyone challenging him early was a sure loser.

people forget that