RXB
05-06-2005, 10:25 PM
Executive Summary: I don't bet very many races and I suspect that, as is usual for me, I won't be betting the Derby. The horse that I like as the key-- Afleet Alex-- doesn't figure to be a tempting price and I don't really care for any of the prospective longshots.
Analytical Methodology: KISS. Horses that don't figure, don't win the Derby. Convoluted nonsense involving outclassed horses with low final-time numbers should be saved for the claimers. And good horses finish well.
Horse-by-horse:
1. Sort It Out-- Too slow. Out.
2. Andromeda's Hero-- Too slow. Out.
3. Sun King-- Too slow recently but good enough to have a shot at an exotics placing.
4. Noble Causeway-- not fast enough to win but improving and can finish a bit. Possible for exotics.
5. Coin Silver-- Not good enough. Out.
6. High Limit-- Doesn't finish well enough, looks like a need-to-lead type, and I really don't like the bottom side of his pedigree for 10 furlongs. Out.
7. Flower Alley-- Too slow. Out.
8. Greater Good-- Too slow. Out.
9. Greeley's Galaxy-- Talented and improving but thin on experience. Exotics chance.
10. Giacomo-- Too slow. Out.
11. High Fly-- Consistent. Numbers just good enough that he might be able to win, but they're not exactly inspiring.
12. Afleet Alex-- I think that this horse is the key. Except for the one freakish 120, his numbers are the best, he has the best graded stakes credentials, and he has shown consistency and strong closing ability. Things can happen in a 20-horse field, and sometimes horses just don't have it on a given day, but from what I can see he's the most likely horse to finish in the top two or three.
13. Spanish Chestnut-- Not good enough and figures to be buried on the front by better horses. Out.
14. Wilko-- Not fast enough. Could sneak into 4th for you superfecta fans.
15. Bandini-- Improving but I don't put much stock in big wins at Kee when they ship elsewhere. Exotics possibility.
16. Bellamy Road-- Well, if he is the next Seattle Slew, he romps. What do you think are the chances of him being Slew reincarnated? (I say slim.) If he gets loose on the lead without having to really fly early, he'll be tough but I think there's enough speed to keep the pace honest and he's going to find the opposition and the track a lot less friendly compared to his last two races. Could win, but not likely and the price will be terrible.
17. Don't Get Mad-- And don't try to get even by betting on this outclassed horse. Out.
18. Closing Argument-- Outclassed; end of submission. Out.
19. Going Wild-- "Well, I've gotta have a starter," D. Wayne must be thinking. Out.
20. Buzzards Bay-- Wrong Derby, Jeffie. Out. (P.S., I was going to make pancakes tomorrow morning but I'm out of baking soda. Can I borrow some?)
Analytical Methodology: KISS. Horses that don't figure, don't win the Derby. Convoluted nonsense involving outclassed horses with low final-time numbers should be saved for the claimers. And good horses finish well.
Horse-by-horse:
1. Sort It Out-- Too slow. Out.
2. Andromeda's Hero-- Too slow. Out.
3. Sun King-- Too slow recently but good enough to have a shot at an exotics placing.
4. Noble Causeway-- not fast enough to win but improving and can finish a bit. Possible for exotics.
5. Coin Silver-- Not good enough. Out.
6. High Limit-- Doesn't finish well enough, looks like a need-to-lead type, and I really don't like the bottom side of his pedigree for 10 furlongs. Out.
7. Flower Alley-- Too slow. Out.
8. Greater Good-- Too slow. Out.
9. Greeley's Galaxy-- Talented and improving but thin on experience. Exotics chance.
10. Giacomo-- Too slow. Out.
11. High Fly-- Consistent. Numbers just good enough that he might be able to win, but they're not exactly inspiring.
12. Afleet Alex-- I think that this horse is the key. Except for the one freakish 120, his numbers are the best, he has the best graded stakes credentials, and he has shown consistency and strong closing ability. Things can happen in a 20-horse field, and sometimes horses just don't have it on a given day, but from what I can see he's the most likely horse to finish in the top two or three.
13. Spanish Chestnut-- Not good enough and figures to be buried on the front by better horses. Out.
14. Wilko-- Not fast enough. Could sneak into 4th for you superfecta fans.
15. Bandini-- Improving but I don't put much stock in big wins at Kee when they ship elsewhere. Exotics possibility.
16. Bellamy Road-- Well, if he is the next Seattle Slew, he romps. What do you think are the chances of him being Slew reincarnated? (I say slim.) If he gets loose on the lead without having to really fly early, he'll be tough but I think there's enough speed to keep the pace honest and he's going to find the opposition and the track a lot less friendly compared to his last two races. Could win, but not likely and the price will be terrible.
17. Don't Get Mad-- And don't try to get even by betting on this outclassed horse. Out.
18. Closing Argument-- Outclassed; end of submission. Out.
19. Going Wild-- "Well, I've gotta have a starter," D. Wayne must be thinking. Out.
20. Buzzards Bay-- Wrong Derby, Jeffie. Out. (P.S., I was going to make pancakes tomorrow morning but I'm out of baking soda. Can I borrow some?)