Who's your Derby Longshot?

[JustRalph]

Ok........Who may be a "Live Longshot" and Why?

5 Coin Silver

maybe eligible to improve to a new top? PVAL onboard doesn't hurt and just might have something to prove.........if the horse is up to it.....PVAL is.......

I will play him under BR .......and maybe a small one on top........

You guys can laugh at me tomorrow.........;)

[schweitz]

Wilco and Don't Get Mad

[betchatoo]

High Fly, Noble Causeway

[kev]

HIGH LIMIT AND FLOWER ALLEY

[JimL]

So much speed------I really think Noble Causeway, might get them. JimL

[sam i am]

Closing Argument - in a field full of horses that I think have no solid foundation or have already run there best race, I think his is ready to run a big race. I am not sure he can win but I will use him with the usual suspects.

David

[ceejay]

Noble Causeway, Geeley's Galaxy

[OTM Al]

High Fly, though he really shouldn't be a long shot.

[BeatTheChalk]

Sun King ... In my heart I think that this is one tough race to handicap

[schweitz]

Wilco and Don't Get Mad

Forgot the Why? part---

I expect a fast pace and both Wilco and Don't Get Mad should be running late and should have no trouble with the distance. Also, Don't Get Mad is 3 for 3 at Churchill.

Of course I usually suck at making money on the Derby---my forte is cheap claiming sprinters. :D

[peakpros]

noble causeway..

looks like the one that may improve the greatest.

[depalma13]

Andromeda's Hero - Don't think he can win, but he could sneak into the bottom of the trifecta for a huge price.

[Zaf]

WILCO

20-1 ML with Nakatani, I'm sure I'll have some win action here.

ZAFONIC

[frankfig]

I believe High Limit will run a BIG RACE ! 25-1 is way to high on this horse. He has post 6 with 5 slow horses inside of him and he should save ground on the first turn. I feel Bobby had this horse at 80% for the blue grass and he has stepped up his training and is DEAD FIT ! I told people here SUMMERLY had a great shot in the OAKs a couple of months ago, and all i heard where she had easy leads at the Fair Grounds and didnt beat much. I Hear the same thing about High Limit and i agree he didnt beat a great field in LA , but this horse has THE TALENT to be a big factor on sat. I know this horse might pack it in turning for home but I feel he is THE BEST VALUE in the race.

[Jinxed]

Going to try and beat the favorites with Noble Causeway, Coin Silver, High Fly and Wilko. (Sun King may also be up for his best). I'm going to box these and you can laugh at me tomorrow if Bellamy Road shows up first. :)

[Zaf]

Wilko :)

I know this guy may be lacking a little on the figs end, but I think he will have a more favorable pace scenario tomorrow. Also this horse has a lot of bottom in him, good experience in graded stakes. Seems like tomorrow would be the right day for him to peak. The trip that he will have is the question.

ZAFONIC

[Tom]

LS #1.....Sun King


LS #2 - NBC putting on good coverage.....or camera angles that let you actually follow the race.

Come to think it, that is not a long shot, it is a no shot.:D

[cees with dees]

The former had a ridiculously wide trip in the Arkansas derby and the latter has yet to run a bad one without lasix. This race cries out for a dead rock closer, a style that rarely wins the derby, but these two will hopefully try to make the last run and love Tyler Baze on Don't Get Mad. He's destined to be one of the all time greats.
Amazing to me how no one has mentioned in Bellamy Roads big Wood win that he was first time mud calks that day. Also, he was loose on the lead on an absolute speed highway with a stone speedball, need the lead, Scrappy T sitting second.
Race is definitely not as good as it looks. God bless everyone betting that 120 Beyer speed figure. Have said since the inception, Beyer speed figures are the most meaningless tool in the game and actually help the real handicapper because the high numbers are always overbet.
Plus, add into the equation, that idiot used to look for tickets in the garbage pails after each race, he was so broke.
Good luck to everyone playing the derby. Am actually looking more forward to tomorrow at Belmont. Been raining pretty steadily here and that means lots of mud calks tomorrow.
Peace and good luck to all.
Ben:lol: :sleeping: :D

[nick777]

I believe High Limit will run a BIG RACE ! 25-1 is way to high on this horse. He has post 6 with 5 slow horses inside of him and he should save ground on the first turn. I feel Bobby had this horse at 80% for the blue grass and he has stepped up his training and is DEAD FIT ! I told people here SUMMERLY had a great shot in the OAKs a couple of months ago, and all i heard where she had easy leads at the Fair Grounds and didnt beat much. I Hear the same thing about High Limit and i agree he didnt beat a great field in LA , but this horse has THE TALENT to be a big factor on sat. I know this horse might pack it in turning for home but I feel he is THE BEST VALUE in the race.



i agree with this 100%

i thought he would be one of the favs for the derby, he's been fav in every start, but others looked more impressive in their tune ups

Bandini snuck up on him with a perfectly timed run, and High Limit had no chance of breaking his momentum

one scary factor, is all the negative feedback about the Blue Grass as a prep, from guys like Lukas, even, it's true, the Blue Grass hasn't produced good Derby runners in the past decade, something about the racing surface at Keeneland

i hate superstition, i like Bandini and High Limit coming up 1-2 again

[Overlay]

High Fly (even with five weeks since last race), based on consistency, figure pattern, pace-pressing style, and Bailey. I have him at fair odds of 9-2, rather than the 8-1 fourth choice he's listed at in the morning line.

[nick777]

High Fly (even with five weeks since last race), based on consistency, figure pattern, pace-pressing style, and Bailey. I have him at fair odds of 9-2, rather than the 8-1 fourth choice he's listed at in the morning line.


10 of the past 13 Derby winners have put up at least 2 100+ beyers going a dirt route prior to the Derby, only High Fly has done that this year.

High Fly is coming off a 35 day lay off, no Derby winner has come off that long a layoff since Needles in 1956.

He is also racing outside of Florida, for the 1st time.

I like Bandini, he is solid, just keeps getting better, and is in prime form, he's also younger than the other 3 year olds, which means he is progressing pretty fast, plus he's the best looking, and best bred for the Derby.

They say Bellamy Road will fold like a tent if he sees a shadow, we will see, there will be plenty of shadows.

Afleet Alex looks like trouble, i figured him for more of a sprinter, but he looks like he can go long, i'm hoping he emptied his tank in Arkansas, and can't get the 1 1/4 mile.

2 horses have no major jinxes going against them, Andromeda's Hero and Don't Get Mad, but they just don't look like they're fast enough.

That was from my book of Derby jinxes

[BetHorses!]

I believe High Limit will run a BIG RACE ! 25-1 is way to high on this horse. He has post 6 with 5 slow horses inside of him and he should save ground on the first turn. I feel Bobby had this horse at 80% for the blue grass and he has stepped up his training and is DEAD FIT ! I told people here SUMMERLY had a great shot in the OAKs a couple of months ago, and all i heard where she had easy leads at the Fair Grounds and didnt beat much. I Hear the same thing about High Limit and i agree he didnt beat a great field in LA , but this horse has THE TALENT to be a big factor on sat. I know this horse might pack it in turning for home but I feel he is THE BEST VALUE in the race.

I believe I am the second person to agree with this post 100%. The true value of all the contenders. Will save ground

Well said frankfig

[wes]

BUZZARDS BAY (20) MONEY WISE, HAVE WON MORE $$$$ THAN 14 OTHERS IN THE RACE. THIRD OR 4TH IN MONEY WON.

WES

[joeyspicks]

I think this is one of those years.....yeah the favorite or near fav is gonna win.:bang:

Everyone knows if Bellamy Road runs like last time its no contest...of course that IS the question.:sleeping:

But even if he doesnt......then I think its AFLEET ALEX
...and of course he's no long shot. So my thoughts are the value is underneath....with:

Greeley's Galaxy (should finish well)
Noble Causeway ( same )
Greater Good

I will be surprised if alex or b.r. isnt the winner.........but then I only have picked the derby correctly 3 of the last 10 years :blush: ( unlike the touts who in there mailings have ALL picked the last 8 of 10 with a 1500+ roi!!! )

Anyway should be interesting......have fun

[TRM]

I'm with you Justralph on Coin Silver. He's got good early speed, solid late speed, lighlty raced, and should improve today ;)

[Suff]

imho

If the track is in the same condition it was in yesteday... I have an opinion.

Toss anyone on the lead, or with 5 lengths of it.

As said earlier, the race is screaming, "OFF THE PACE'... but as we all know... what it looks like and what it does...frequently differ.

With that said... My paper reading skills have AA and BR clearly 1 and 2...and I give the edge to AA.

But I will not play that....because thats not how I play this game...

I'm using sort it out. As usual I have to use my imgaination and a little heart to get here.. But#1 I toss his 2YO Campaign... #2... Seen him race three times and he is ALWAYS coming at whats in front of him in the final furlong... I realize the horse's he beat are not here... but those, and the one's he ran right underneath ran the BEST of thier career that day. Namely his 2nd to Naughty NY'r. NNY is not Derby qualified... but the day SORT IT OUT ran 2nd to him was NNY"S best race ever and notable...

#3.. post one is huge break. He'll spot the field 8-12 lengths, maybe more of they scream out the gate...but he'll avoid any trouble, and get a ground saving trip... Now, if Bellamy road is for real...he wins going away. with AA right on his ass... but if Bellamy road just freaked in teh WOOD,,,and falls apart at 9 panels...and AA fall apart at 9 panels...and they both come back to the field... It's on.

It always risky when You use intrinsic methodolgy to come up with a Horse..
I was explaining my logic to a friend last night and he basically asked me if I was an idiot, for thinking Sort it out had any chance... But... This is the way I play the pony's

If I was betting my Kid's college Fund, I'd more inclined to do a $500.00 exacta AA over BR...and super wheel AA/BR -BR/AA --all- all

But scince I bet for scores..and I bet for pleasure.. I'm going to go all kinds of wide around Sort it Out. & Greater Good amd Flower Alley

[keilan]

Do players have short memories or are they just afraid to lose?

If quality front running types like Greeley’s Galaxy and Bellamy Road don’t win today -- it’s because the pace was suicidal. If they go real quick early then it only makes sense to play horses that have some staying power and longer odds, cause that’s where the money is.

I’ll structure my exotic tickets (tri’s & super) with some flexibility.

(keys on top / ticket #1)
Greeley’s Galaxy / Bellamy Road

(keys on top / ticket #2)
Sun King / Flower Alley / High Fly

(key for 3rd & 4th / ticket #3)
Flower Alley

Ticket #1 gives me an opportunity to cash with the horses I like best.

Ticket #2 allows me the chance to cash if my top selections fail.

Ticket #3 gives me a shot at really getting paid cause I’ll use several horses in the other spots and hopefully let the winner find me.

20 horse fields are a tough gig so why anyone would ONLY play the obvious horse/s is beyond me.

Good Luck Suff I like your style

[Suff]

Good Luck Suff I like your style

My bread & butter is Allow43NW1 going 6 panels on a thursday afternoon at NYRA....or a 35K claimer going 8 panels on the BIGA inner on a cold day in January.


I take the derby for what it is. A spectacle. I enjoy it for what it is. I enjoy it a lot. But it's like New Years Eve....Amatuers night out.

Good Luck, enjoy. Thanks

[open_question]

live longshot (should get great odds, especially since being trashed by TVG folks after wobbly 1m work) - Greeley's Galaxy

he's got speed to burn on a speed-favoring track, he's been on or within 4 lengths of the lead entering the stretch in his last three outs, his success on off tracks suggests he can handle Churchill's deep surface, and he's been worked like heck to build up endurance (the Stute boys are notorious for working their runners to pieces), he's got a decent mid-pack post. his stats are pulled down by his lack of experience as a 2yo and against class.

having said that, imo a longshot will not win this Derby. class handicappers like me will go w/proven ability against strong peers.

[twobet]

On the improve. Can get the distance.

[depalma13]

That work was a mile and a quarter, they only timed a mile of it. IMO, GG wants no part of the distance and will be through going into the second turn.

[andicap]

The upshot on my analysis for the contest

Best longshot value:
The Pick: Wilko

Based on a five year analysis of what wins in the Derby according to HTR.

Total impact (kind of like AP)-- He's right there off a race in mid-December.
Energy -- Last two races has energy that fits winners profile
Form Cycle -- improving from 13 to 12, still a bit slow for these, but that's why he's a longshot. Has the improvement pattern that has won this race almost every year.
Workout is excellent
SOR -- a class figure is right up there.

Good trainer and jockey according to HTR criteria

Negatives
-- a bit slower than the top figure shorses like Bellamy and Greeley.
-- Only 2 races this year but had one on Dec. 18, ALMOST this year.
-- 14 lifetime races. Too many to fit the model. All winners had between 5 and 7 races total since 2000.

Other longshots I will use are
Greeley's Galaxy. Energy way too high but he's fast and can press the pace. hould get very good position. Was almost my longshot pick. But form cycle shows too much improvement last race to fit the profile.

High Limit -- heavy in 2nd/3rd spots where his energy is perfect. I wish he had a better form cycle . only 4 races.

My "Winner" is Afleet Alex, that is most likely to win but he won't make the 6-1 minimum odds I need on him. He best fits the model but has a few weaknesses. (A bit slower than the top few, too many races and energy is a bit low)

B

[delayjf]

My longshot is Noble Causeway, according to CJ figures, he improved his pace figure while maintaining his speed figure, He keeps getting better in small increments. Good luck all.

[nick777]

Giacomo

Take those beyers, and shove em up your ***

[kenwoodallpromos]

Congrats! Longshots were the way to go!

[Skanoochies]

Great call Nick, hope you cashed a big one! :jump:

[JustRalph]

i think he posted that after the race.............

[nick777]

i think he posted that after the race.............


Yup

Giacomo that giacass

[Niko]

If you look at the post it wasn't after the race. I had 90% of my money on the 12 and 18 in the first slots. Thought it was going to be the score of a lifetime with Closing Argument for various bets, but then Giacomo surprised me.
Luckily for me I did box them as a saver with with 12 and 16 in exacta and tri. So yes, it was a great day indeed that could have been even more.
It may never fall this way again but this was the saver to hit.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I am giving Niko the credit for it.

[BIG RED]

was lost

[JustRalph]

i think he posted that after the race.............

Ok.......according to what I read, it says he posted at 6:59p

maybe I am reading it wrong..............no big deal either way.......

If you had that horse.........good for you...... nice call...........

[PaceAdvantage]

Some of you guys better check the daylight savings settings on the UserCP link. That post was 6:59pm ET, definitely after the race. I believe the poster was making a post-race comment, not a pre-race prediction.

[JustRalph]

Some of you guys better check the daylight savings settings on the UserCP link. That post was 6:59pm ET, definitely after the race. I believe the poster was making a post-race comment, not a pre-race prediction.

Thanks PA. I thought I was losing my mind. checked my clock etc................

[Niko]

It was under General Handicapping, who's your Derby Longshot thread posted at 10:13 a.m. Been a little busy and it was the first thread I saw so I put it there...

[Niko]

and then I realize you're probably talking about Nick and not Niko....sorry!

[PaceAdvantage]

Now I'm really confused. I was talking about the post in this thread....oh well...

Nevermind....

[BIG RED]

was lost

See :D

[how cliche]

Can I past post from a thread I put in at www.upinclass.com (http://www.upinclass.com/) ? Check this out. Closest I came to hitting this race was 1st and 3rd in a tri wheel keying Alex WPS, but omitting Closing Argument, and a $10 across the board ticket my wife played for us basedon my tout of him as being the best ultra longshot chance. Kinda embarrassing when the best you can do for your household is to have your wife school you on how to bet...My analysis...


Look long enough...
May 5 2005 at 2:20 PMhttp://www.network54.com/PersonalPhotos/1107104504.JPG
Unusual Pete (chewybit@aol.com)

Unusual Pete (Login Unusual_Pete (http://www.network54.com/Hide/Profile/Unusual_Pete))Stewards

If you look long enough you'll always find a way to go to the dark side...to the gimmicks.

Anyone who knows me realizes that I'm pretty good at doing one thing. Picking winners. Originally I thought I just wanted to play Afleet Alex to win and a couple of EBX's with him and 2 others. I'm still doing the win, but am now bypassing the EBX's

A crazy horse has drawn me into the tri instead. It's insane, but I've seen John Shireffs serve notice for a long race so many times with a huge 7f work in 1:24 & change at HOL(see Stanley Park, for example). Giacomo worked 7f at HOL in 1:23 & 4. Anyone else training & I'd ignore it, but with Shireffs training for the Mosses I must pay attention.