Kentucky Derby Picks

[weatherman]

i posted computer picks for Derby day, click on kentucky derby
http://www.bm-dist.com

ps check hol picks i posted wed won't be another day like that, in the 6th DQ #9 cost me the pick6 on a $24 ticket,, even a bigger ticket i would't have had the 7

[Myhorse1_X]

Weatherman:

You are certainly brave to post your Derby picks. With 20 horses in the field, a possibility of a wire to wire winner, I would hate to guess who the winner will be.

Good Luck.

MyHorse1

(Personally I like War Emblem, over Medglia D'Oro, Buddah and Johannesburg or Harlan's Holiday)

[weatherman]

Ignorance is more like it, posting the picks, everyone has a opinion, mine is it will be a good race to watch. there's going to be alot of traffic problems, if your a late runner trying going around or thru 19 horses or if your a front runner and can set the pace then they have a better chance, but the herd will be coming after them, as for me and alot of others WHO?

[Bruddah]

I am using Saarland as my Tri Key. Shug has this horse "primed" for this race. He definitely will be on the board. The front speed and pressers will fall apart between1m 1/8 and 1m 3/16. With a 1/16 to go, Breeding and the large heart factor will take over. Saarland has both. JMHO. Best of Luck to all.

[weatherman]

thanks Bruddah your opinion always appreciated.... i would like to see how other programs and systems has the derby, and there's a lot touted on this site, however it can be embarrassing if it doesn't pickum, i remember the challenge between BB pretty tuff on the some of the $$$ programs, but some got their 1% roi, since i don't sell anything just trying to help or confuse. it will be a good day to make lots of money OR a long drive home

[FortuneHunter]

Bruddha - r = Buddha

Gritty run in the Wood. Might stick around to give Saarland the same look he gave M D'Oro. Tested Tough.

[JimG]

I have 2 picks for the Derby now that Buddah is out. My sane pick is Medaglia D'Oro. My longshot pick is Castle Gandolfo.


Good luck everyone.


Jim

[rrbauer]

I was all set to jump on MEDAGLIA D'ORO until I found out he was "sick" earlier in the week. I don't care whether the vet "flushed it out" (Frankel) or not. You have to be 100% to contend in this race...not 99 or 98.

I thought the way PERFECT DRIFT won the Spiral was very impressive and suggested to me that this horse still has forward move in him. Eddie D. never even cocked the whip that day-just scrubbed on him a couple times nearing the 1/16 pole and he went on by to win the race. He's worked back super and has had good rest. It's all coming together for PD. Wish he were drawn farther outside is all.

I am still not convinced that WAR EMBLEM can't run away from these. A lot of knocks-running style; more weight; big forward moves to digest; probably more pressure early that his last 2 races. After Saturday, I'll be a believer, one way or the other.

A small win bet on WE and a small exacta, WE to PD. My main bet is a win bet on PD.

Here's hoping that we have 19 good trips and no injuries to man or beast.

[JimG]

Richard,

Perfect Drift is an interesting pick. I won on him in the Spiral. Played him solely because Eddie D traveled to KY to ride him and Eddie won't do that much more unless he has something special. He usually stays put in SoCal.

Your right, he won nicely...I just don't think the competition was in the league of the Wood Memorial this year.

I like Gandolfo's dirt performance overseas and the fact that Bailey is up. My kinda longshot.

Jim

[Que]

My Derby pick is PERFECT DRIFT, with LUSTY LATIN as my longshot pick. I think my higher ranked horses, i.e. CAME HOME, EASY GRADES, and MEDAGLIA D`ORO are just too fast and will burn each other up before that last eigth of a mile. Good luck...

Que.

[andicap]

I keep changing my mind every 5 minutes.

I use two formulas, a late energy I call HE which takes TT into account and an overall fig tilted toward early speed I call EP/AP
In the last 45 days, the best HE figs are: (all 9f)

War Emblem 226
Saarland 220
Medaglia 219
Perfect Drift 214
Blue Burner 213

Going back 90 days Harlan Holiday has a solid 225
Came Home had a 219, but at 8f. That ain't 10F.

I have no fig for Essence of Dubai other than the 209 he posted last fall at 8F. You can't compare 8f and 9f but he's bound to improve so he's a contender.

I threw out WE's because he was on a clear lead on a speed-biased track and may bounce. A triple threat! BUT my figs also show WE could have a clear early lead. But I've got to assume someone will push him. (If I'm wrong I'm toast.)

Medaglia and Harlan dominate the EP/AP rating. (again I discounted any 8f rating)

Was all set to jump on PD's competitive figure, but the
trouble is in the EP/AP rating Perfect Drift is awful. And he likes to run close to the pace. That spells trouble. But he's sure improving

Everyone else has weaknesses (sigh)

Harlan -- Medicore workout. Declining form. Seems to have peaked. No value.

Saarland's Beyer's are not good -- no one ever wins the Derby with those Beyers and he's a plodder. Depends on the odds.

Medaglia -- Inexperience and bounce candidate. Low odds probably. (5-1 or 6-1??). And if he was sick....

Blue Burner -- Horrible Beyers. bottom of exotics type longshot.

Essence of Dubai -- who the hell knows? Horse he beat came back with a 102 or so Beyer in the States so.....

How to bet? I'm still not sure. What will Saarland's odds be? Dubai's? I'll definitely throw a small bet on Perfect Drift at his odds. I'll likely key two longer odds horses in the exacta around my contenders. The good thing is the exactas will pay great no matter what.

You might have to see the early races to see if there's any track bias.

In order:
Medaglia -- Frankel magic. Very very talented.
Saarland -- Only 3L behind Med on a speed-favoring race and operation MIGHT help. Very good pattern. Low Beyers but the entire field is lousy.
Harlan -- Best creams this field.
Essence -- ????
Perfect Drift -- Love the odds

If I set an odds line here. I'll say my top 5 have about a 75% of winning. Usually its 85-90% but not here. WE and others have a decent shot. (Johannesburg, Came Home are not pigs)

Medag -- 4-1
Saar -- 9-2
Harlan -- 5-1
Essence -- ??? 8-1?
PD -- 10-1

subject to change!!!!

[Tom]

My Derby Picks:

1 Saarland
2 Medaglia D' Oro
3 Came Home

Not sur eabout how i will bet these, but these are the ones anmy Key is Saarland, but I think a win bet on all three might be a possibilty if the odds are high enough. Most will be on Saarland, though.

[anotherdave]

I'll take a shot:

Johannesburg


AD

[toteboard]

Request For Parole
Consistent and could surprize.

[Tuffmug]

Bet Johannesberg to win! Forget dosage crap about breeding and not staying 10F. Breeding info is a guess used when other info unavailable but remember that Carryback was a $1500 horse with lousy breeding yet beat the bluebloods with ease. Ask D Wayne how many million plus horses he has who don't run a lick!
See 8th at AQ today for 4.4 million worth of dogfood!

Johannesberg already proved at 2 that he could stretch out and finished fast,and 99 Beyer as 2yo at BC towers over these and suggests he should improve as 3yo. OBrien not here on a lark and have to assume Johannesberg has run a few scrimage races at 1 1/4 at Balleydoyle and finished up very well.

Saarland will plod and have troubled trips just like Dollar Bill.

Harlan too slow and reminds me of Hal's Hope!

[Rpd]

Mine:

1. Easy Grades
2. Saarland
3. War Emblem

[David McKenzie]

The pace and sheet figures are too close to call between the top contenders. As if that's not difficult enough, you have to ask yourself if the ones that have run well can improve further, pair up, or have peaked and will now regress? Who knows.

The speed duel won't be as suicidal as last year. However, there is a lot of early speed, so I'm expecting a closer to pick up the pieces at a price.

Harlan's Holiday should have an easier time running on the front end now that Buddha is out of the race. Saarland and Came Home should be contesting the pace, but they aren't in Harlan's league, early speed wise. I figure Harlan should have a substantial length lead after 6F. Can he sustain it? I don't know, but I'm certainly going to use him on top for exactas and triples.

Essence of Dubai and Perfect Drift are the best closers. I'll bet both to win at generous odds.

[David McKenzie]

I'll also use Request for Parole and Madaglia D'oro on top for exactas and trifectas.

For exotics I'll use Castle Gandolfo for place and show as well as the other logical horses like Saaland, Johannesburg and Came Home.

And seeing as this race is so contentious, I may hit the "quick pick" button on the SAM machine a few times. Who knows? That might be the best piece of advice yet!

Good luck!

[ceejay]

Castle Gandofo
Megdlagia d Oro
Private Emblem

[Tom]

Originally posted by Tuffmug
Bet Johannesberg to win! Forget dosage crap about breeding and not staying 10F. Breeding info is a guess used when other info unavailable but remember that Carryback was a $1500 horse with lousy breeding yet beat the bluebloods with ease. Ask D Wayne how many million plus horses he has who don't run a lick!
See 8th at AQ today for 4.4 million worth of dogfood!



J-Berg is not only dossage-qualified, he is a dual-qualifier.

[Amazin]

ITSALLINTHECHASE in a shocker

[tigers1901]

1-SAARLAND
2-HARLAN'S HOLIDAY
3-BLUE BURNER:cool:

last-DWL's horse

[Rick]

I'll go with War Emblem. He has both early and late speed and the price is right. I have Harlan's Holiday 2nd and Saarland 3rd.

[superfecta]

superfecta.....#9/3,5/7,4,2/19,4,7 ,Iwill also play war emblem on a small ticket on top,and perfect drift.

[GR1@HTR]

Blue Burner is the value exotic key...

Projected Sheet like figs
Horse....Fig
1 5 (if he can run like he did last year, but a big if)
2 20
3 12
4 11
5 7
6 16
7 15
8 5 (See Horse #1 comments)
9 5
11 13
12 ????
13 18
14 12
15 11
16 7
18 15
19 10.5
20 8

[PaceAdvantage]

War Emblem at 20-1....it's so obvious now!!! LOL

He was the third choice on my program, and I completely left him out...I need to seriously re-think the way I do things.....


==PA

[Rick]

PaceAdvantage, andicap, and me:

We all have bragging rights! Congratulations to you guys. I have to say that this is the first time I've done really well on the Derby. But, the bottom line after 20 years is now WAY positive. Now, that's an OVERLAY!

[JimG]

It costs alot of money to play the Derby 3 ways....fast pace, honest pace, slow pace. With a slow pace War Emblem and the rest of the speed was golden. Hindsight is always 20/20 for me. PA...I wouldn't beat myself up to much. It was logical to play for a fast pace early.


Jim

[superfecta]

War Emblem,Proud Citizen.....exacta play reflects the time we live in,huh.Course I didn't play it,but oh well.

[Rick]

Oops,

PaceAdvantage, I read your post wrong. I thought you had the winner. Sorry. I've been there many times before.

[Myhorse1_X]

My program picked the 14, 5, and 9 as equal Horses, so I played a $20 win on each and came home a winner with the #5 War Emblem. Check my picks in a previous post if you doubt my word.

Lucky I don't play exotics.

MyHorse1

[JimG]

Originally posted by Myhorse1
My program picked the 14, 5, and 9 as equal Horses, so I played a $20 win on each and came home a winner with the #5 War Emblem. Check my picks in a previous post if you doubt my word.

Lucky I don't play exotics.

MyHorse1

Good for you. In advance of the race I think you stated you would hate to try and pick the winner of the Derby although you did mention you liked War Emblem.

Posting your program selections IN ADVANCE of the Derby could have helped you sell some copies.

Jim

[weatherman]

derby got me, but a enjoyable day, had a couple of nice winners, thanks for all the response, alot of good comments, i've only had one virus sent to me so far lol,

[Myhorse1_X]

Jim G

If you looked at the day and time I posted my picks you would find out that I posted that on 05/02/02 at 9:10AM. (Wednesday)
I think that was PRIOR to the Derby.

I accept your apology!

MyHorse1

(PS My program is no longer for sale)

[cj]

Originally posted by JimG
It costs alot of money to play the Derby 3 ways....fast pace, honest pace, slow pace. With a slow pace War Emblem and the rest of the speed was golden. Hindsight is always 20/20 for me. PA...I wouldn't beat myself up to much. It was logical to play for a fast pace early.


Jim

The pace was not slow, the pace figure is roughly the same as the speed figure...a nice, honest pace.

CJ

[cj]

I'm not one to put a lot of stock in biases, but this one is interesting. BL of the winners at the 1st call in dirt races today: 0, hd, 2.5, 0, 0, 1/2, 2, hd, 0. Two were DQed. Fairly short prices, so I tend to side with a fast but honest track.

Just curious what the rest of you think.

CJ

[andicap]

Rick,
I'm killing myself right now. While my method had War Emblem on top, I threw him out -- as I said in my note -- because I didn't think he'd get an easy lead again. I thought he might bounce and I thought Sportsman was speed favoring for a horse that gets an easy lead like that. (then again, aren't most tracks?).

At the very least, I should have put my saver win bet on WE to break even.

That's what I get for thinking!

[JimG]

QUOTE]Originally posted by Myhorse1
Weatherman:

You are certainly brave to post your Derby picks. With 20 horses in the field, a possibility of a wire to wire winner, I would hate to guess who the winner will be.

Good Luck.

MyHorse1

(Personally I like War Emblem, over Medglia D'Oro, Buddah and Johannesburg or Harlan's Holiday) [/QUOTE]

This was your post on 5/2...before the Derby..and I alluded to it in my reply. No apology on my part necessary.

Why did you stop selling your program?

Jim

[GR1@HTR]

That race was typical of many supposed high pressure pace races. It never happens...To put it simply, the most important thing about pace handicapping is:

Who is going to get the lead...

[andicap]

GR1,
I'm really beginning to agree with you. I think a lot of that Randy Giles pace pressure stuff is wrong as much as it's right. If you have a high-pressure pace scenario and a longshot closer then I'd take a look, but otherwise the early part of the race is the way to look.
Some pace handicappers look for the best early and the best late in that scenario. War Emblem was certainly the best early we could all agree.
Interestingly, in his book, Brohamer chided pace handicappers who only looked at the early pace. But if I was as good as Brohamer, I wouldn't be worrying about how I can spend more time with my daughter when I get home from work at 8 p.m.
And I never thought those Brohamer models worked in Northeastern climates where the weather changes so much.

[Tom]

I had serious doubts that WE would even get the lead, let alone hold it. And Lukas's horse was not in my top 15. I am amazed that so many horse just did not lift a hoof at any point in the race. I never like horses who win wire to wire by open lenghts and that cost me today, but I still think the next 10-12 horse like this that come along will not hit the board.

[andicap]

Tom,
yes, I agree with you too. I don't think you and GR1 are necessarily saying two different things. My figures showed WE had a solid shot of getting out front -- yours didn't, but's that irrelevant. I disregarded those figs because I thought there would be some pace pressure which he didn't face in the Illinois Derby.
It also could be the track was playing on the "Early" side as well.

Remember these were a sub-par group of horses and deep down we all know something weird was going to happen.

[Rick]

andicap,

My condolences. I've been there before. I still think the key to this race was that War Emblem had shown ability to run both early and late in his last two races. The only question for me was whether he would be outclassed, not having raced in a Grade 1 race previously. Baffert and the generous odds convinced me that it was the right thing to do. Since I had a long string of losers in the KD before this winner, I'm reluctant to say that the race should always be played this way. In previous years, I would follow Churchill Downs all week to try to pick up on the bias. Then on Saturday, I'd do very well on all other races except the Derby. Now, I'm convinced that it's just a totally different kind of race because of the number of entries, the class of the race, and the unpredictability of 3 year olds.

[ranchwest]

Originally posted by Rick
andicap,

My condolences. I've been there before. I still think the key to this race was that War Emblem had shown ability to run both early and late in his last two races. The only question for me was whether he would be outclassed, not having raced in a Grade 1 race previously. Baffert and the generous odds convinced me that it was the right thing to do. Since I had a long string of losers in the KD before this winner, I'm reluctant to say that the race should always be played this way. In previous years, I would follow Churchill Downs all week to try to pick up on the bias. Then on Saturday, I'd do very well on all other races except the Derby. Now, I'm convinced that it's just a totally different kind of race because of the number of entries, the class of the race, and the unpredictability of 3 year olds.

Exactly, WE had shown the ability to run early and keep going. Unfortunately, 13 was in my last elimination. 3 and 5 were my primary plays, but I didn't come out well. Looking forward to next year.

[Myhorse1_X]

Jim:

Now I understand. My time for an apology!

I stoped selling my program is for a couple of reasons. #1-I was really not in it for the money, I just wanted to get some of my investment back and when I got close to that, I saw no reason to sell any more. #2-I found that I was spending too much time and energy trying to sell it when I could have been at my local OTB enjoying myself. At my age, I should be able to enjoy myself as much as I can.
I am still supporting the program, and making a few improvements to which I give to my customers free of charge. The basic program picks are still the same as it was a year ago, I just try to make it easier to use. I have just recently had a Data Base program developed and have started entering data just for my own use, not to sell to anyone. I am not in the business to make a profit, just to enjoy handicapping.

MyHorse1

[Rick]

ranchwest,

I usually do best on the Belmont so I'm looking forward to that. It usually suits my style of play better than the other two races, and that's probably also true for most others on this board. I won't complain if I lose the other two this year though.

[anotherdave]

Originally posted by Rick
I usually do best on the Belmont so I'm looking forward to that. It usually suits my style of play better than the other two races, and that's probably also true for most others on this board. I won't complain if I lose the other two this year though.

Unfortunately I doubt the other two races will fit my style of play, but I'll give them a shot. I have had 3 winners in probably the last 20 years at the Derby- Monarchos, Lil E Tee, and Winning Colors. Now Lil E Tee will pay for them all (especially when he paid $90 at my simulcast facility), but most of the time I am not even in the ballpark on the race. I can't remember the last time I won the Preakness (oh yeah I did have Red Bullet, but before that nothing). And I won the Belmont in 98? with Victory Gallop. And I had Colonial Affair and Easy Goer. Nothing else I can remember.

War Emblem looked good to me, but so did 7 or 8 others, no wonder I don't win this race very often!

I was all over a $67 winner in a cheap claimer on Wednesday. I was waiting for the race. I knew I had a really good chance. I'm not sure I ever will feel that way about a horse in the Derby. I would sure love to! I love the race, the spectacle, but as a handicapper I can't put more than 20 bucks on the race. It just feels like a crap shoot to me. Or I am just a crappy handicapper on Grade I races at a mile and a quarter. Maybe I do better if the Derby was 6 furlongs with $5000 claimers!


AD

[Rick]

AD,

I miss the days when you could find a better price at your local simulcast facility. The variance in payoffs was proof to me that horse racing parimutuel markets are not efficient. Also, I'll take those $5000 claimers anytime. They're responsible for a large percentage of the money I've ever won.