Churchill surface

[Valuist]

I know there's some Louisville people on this board and they may know if they've changed the track in the past few years. I've only been playing CD for about 10 years when simulcasting became widespread. It seemed that there was used to be a slight outside bias at CD. Nothing severe, just that the winning trip was often the 3 wide sweeping move on the far turn. The kind of winning move that often happens at Arlington and Belmont. The Derby reflected this as horses often won with the big move on the turn.

Fast forward to 2001: Monarchos wins with the big wide close in a time of 1:59 4/5 over a concrete paved highway. CD track officials took a lot of heat over this final time, and Monarchos' subsequent efforts proved he was nowhere in the same class as Secretariat. Since then, we've seen three Derbies won by speed or pressers. Watching the everyday races there, one of the most common winning races now is when a horse is in front turning for home, gets passed on the outside, then regains the lead late. We see this often at the Fair Grounds but I don't recall seeing this much at CD before 2002. I wouldn't even call it a rail bias but it definitely is not an outside bias. Horses who make that big sweeping move on the turn now are often sucking air in the final sixteenth.

[rastajenk]

Saw something like that in the La Troienne race on ESPN. I think it was Aspen Tree that closed the gap from an outer path, but when they straightened out for good Seek A Star, the pacesetter, scooted away again to win fairly easily.

[Valuist]

That's the exact trip that's been winning often at CD the past three years.

[Valuist]

I'm not sure which is worse at CD today: the rail or speed. In any event, neither is the key to winning there today.

[Valuist]

That dead rail bias at Churchill never went away this past meet. The track had been pretty bias free the past few years until this year. There will be numerous betbacks at Ellis.