Kentucky Derby / Software readouts

[shanta]

I use Speculator. Guidelines are entering pacelines where the horse either won or placed in a grade 1 or 2 race. ALL other lines are to be IGNORED.

I am showing 2 screen shots. First is betting line which shows Wilko and Afleet Alex as the top 2 selections. Bellamy is 3rd choice and is the designated "early".

I am betting BOTH Wilko amd Afleet Alex to win here.

2nd screen shot is early /late graph which shows both Wilko and "Alex" as the dominant late runners here. But NOT too late. Lets see if I can get both screen shots on this post

Best to all

Richie :)

[DJofSD]

Horses not considered as contenders for the win: Sort It Out, Noble Causeway, Coin Silver, Flower Alley, Bandini, Closing Argument, Going Wild, Buzzards Bay.

I see these making up the early pace scenario: High Limit, High Fly, Spanish Chestnut, Bellamy Road, Going Wild and Bandini trailing those with the need for speed.

A tried and true procedure using T'mation has Afleet Alex and Sun King as the two best sustained pace horses. Wilko is the designated place horse.

Bellamy Road made it into the final 12. But despite having the top Total Energy and the top ranked Total Deceleration Ratio, he fairs poorly when considering two different measurements of Sustained Pace. Looks like another public betting favorite is about to bite the dust.

Good luck to all.

DJofSD

[trickey]

the race sets up as a pressured pace scenario......

so the top 3 ppf rankings are as follows......

1. Afleet Alex

2.Sun King

3. Bellamy Road

if we do get a lively pace in this race, it should be quite interesting to see what shakes out here......

good luck to all...........

trickey

[MakersMark]

PowerOnline Ver 2

PowerOnline is a software program that offers selections from various systems of Steve Wolson. They include Performance Factor Angle- PA, Best Bets- BB, Maiden Project-MP, System 2000 - 2K, C-3 System -C-3, PowerLine-PL, PowerLine Plus- PL+, Ultra-Line -UL, Positive Factor Scan-PFS, The Turf Project- TP.

This software awards a point system per factor. Example (Northern 17 Pts in Race1) a Besides showing each individual system picks they have a CONSENSUS pick which is what I have shown for most races below. The Post Position Selection Numbers should be correct as I downloaded BRIS info into program Thursday Morning. As you can see, I got tired of typing names about the 7th race.


PowerOnline Ver 2 (Consensus Picks)
CHURCHILL DOWNS on 5/7/2005(Saturday)

CD Race 01 PTS
7 - Northern 17
8 - Yes Yes Yes 12
6 - Natural 7
4 - SunshineNBeer 2

CD Race 02
3 - Wildcat Shoes 35
6 - Premier 5
2 - Watchem 4
4 - Key Deputy 2
5 - Deer Lake 2

CD Race 03
8 - Go Lion Go 7
9 - Maytown 7
6 - Cant Trick 7
3 - Sterling Prospect 5
1 - Mister 5

CD Race 04
12- Tempered 12
10- Cool 10
9 - Florida Keys 7
7 - Mighty 7
CD Race 05
11 - Sir 20
12 - Pomeroy 10
1 - Lion Tamer 6
8 - Grand Reward 5

CD Race 06
6 -Half Ours 10
7 - High 5
4 - Dance Daily 4
1 - Beacon Shine 4

CD Race 07
8 -15
7- 9
6- 5
4- 5
1 -5
CD Race 08
9 -25
3 -9
1 -5
6 -5
CD Race 09
1 -17
3 -10
7 -7
4 -5


(Kentucky Derby)

**CD Race 10 Points & System
16 - Bellamy Road 15 PL,PL+,UL
11 - High Fly 7 PA, PL+/2nd
15 - Bandini 7 C-3,PL/2nd
17 - Dont Get Mad 7 PFS, 2K
9 - Greeley's 2 UL/2nd
6 - High Limit 2 C-3/2nd


CD Race 11
4 -10
1A -2
9 -2

CD Race 12
3- 22
4 -14
9- 5
11- 5




Have a good derby from the Derby City,


MakersMark

[Houndog]

Shanta, does entering 8.5 furlong pacelines with 9 furlong pacelines favor the shorter disance to a great extent in Speculator?

I am going to do the Kentucky Derby in Thoromation using 9 furlong pace lines if at all possible and using the number 2 adjust if required to equalize Total Energy. This has worked in the past and may be worth a try.

[JimG]

WorkHorse Pro 2 Kentucky Derby Selections (in order)

12...Afleet Alex
11...High Fly
9...Greeley's Galaxy
3...Sun King

Jim

[46zilzal]

I am going to do the Kentucky Derby in Thoromation using 9 furlong pace lines if at all possible and using the number 2 adjust if required to equalize Total Energy. This has worked in the past and may be worth a try.

Isn't that what the instructions stated on STAKES races???

On the other there is no advantge to the shorter pacelines in Spec that I have found

[Zaf]

Equisim - Profiler results using my CD database.

Before I post I have to say there are 100's of settings for different aspects of Equisim. The results are for my way of using the program.

16 - Bellamy Road
17 - Don't Get Mad
6 - High Limit
13 - Spanish Chesnut

Good Luck All !!!

ZAFONIC

[cj]

Hey Zaf,

Is that using the BRIS file for Equisim? I think personally BRIS WAY overrated DGM's Derby Trial win.

[46zilzal]

16 - Bellamy Road
17 - Don't Get Mad
6 - High Limit
13 - Spanish Chesnut
ZAFONIC

If Spanish Chesnut even hits the board I would be VERY VERY surprised. Must have it set for EARLY pace advantage. Sounds like a name for a discussion group?

[46zilzal]

Shanta, does entering 8.5 furlong pacelines with 9 furlong pacelines favor the shorter disance to a great extent in Speculator?
.
Ther is no easy answer to this question, but, upon review, SOMETIMES would be the best response.

[Zaf]

CJ,

Its a TSN file, and your Performance Figs are as follows for (last race ):

Bellamy Road 114
Greeley's Galaxy 111
High Fly 107
Don't Get Mad 107

Don't Get Mad's race was at a mile and probably doesn't translate well to the classic distance.

ZAFONIC

[Zaf]

Greeley's Galaxy

I know his Ill Derby number is impressive, but a month before that he was mopping up a nw1 field at SA. Don't think the horse has enough bottom in him.

ZAFONIC

[cj]

Zaf

I'd run the program again, I just sent out the variants that included last week's racing, the Derby Trial in this case. The number you see is based on the TSN fig, but once you run it again with my variants, you will see a 94. I have to remember to italicize those races that aren't calculated with my variants like I do with the Formulator version.

[cj]

I don't generally pay much attention to workouts, but the DRF clocker reports have really been bashing Greeley's Galaxy, two really poor workouts, not a good sign.

[Secretariat]

Since Makers Mark put his post two places, figured I'd do the same since there's so many derby posts.

Makers Mark,

I've been tracking POL using Derby files from 1997 onward, since that's all Bris stores in their archive.

The profitable methods over that time are the following:

C3= 3.025 ROI (3 of 8 winners)
TEM=2.14 ROI (2 of 8 winners)
PL+=4.825 ROI (3 of 8 winners)
PA=1.44 ROI (1 of 8 winners)
UL = 1.038 (2 of 8 winners)
XA=7.17 (1 of 3 winners, lots of no plays)
PL96=6.175 (3 of 8 winners)
SCF=1.90 (2 of 8 winners)
The Consensus is not the way to go with only 1 of 8 winners and a 0.413 ROI

Of the profitable methods here are this years picks.

C3 Top = Bandini
TEM Top= Bellamy Road
PL+ Top= Bellamy Road
PA Top=High Fly
UL Top=Bellamy Road
XA Top=no play
PL96 Top=Bellamy Road
SCF Top=Bellamy Road

Based on PL+ and PL96 records it looks like Bellamy Road is a strong pick under Steve's program, but Bandini wouldn't be a surprise based on C3 performance history.

[46zilzal]

ALWAYS seem to translate out too fast when projected longer,

[Maxspa]

MaxCapper
CDX- Kentucky Derby

All Ranks and Composite Analysis

High Fly- 124

Bandini- 112

Bellamy Road 107

High Limit 98

Good Luck! Maxspa

[bet2win2]

Amazing Capper
16- bellamy road
11-high fly
15-bandini
5-coin silver

Watts
16
12
6
9

[shanta]

I got an email asking what the race looks like using just the last line on ALL the horses with NO user judgement calls etc. The program only allows 12 contenders so these are the 12 with the highest LAST RACE speed ratings.

Here is the betting line screen
Richie

[cj]

Using my own figures, my odds line maker, and a modified version of Pizzola's LASST method, this is what I come up with:

Win contenders:
Bellamy Road 5-2
Greeley's Galaxy 4-1
High Fly 11-1

Place contenders:
Bandini
Afleet Alex
Wilko

Show contenders:
Closing Argument
Coin Silver
High Limit
Noble Causeway

This is how I normally do any race, no sense changing just because it is the Derby.

[Jeff P]

Every one of my non horseracing friends has asked me "Who is going to win the Ky Derby this year?" They don't understand how hard picking a winner from a 20 horse field where none have ever run the distance before can be.

Nonetheless, for those interested, here's a link to the JCapper HTML Report for Derby Day 2005:

http://www.jcapper.com/derbyday.html



.

[Buddha]

They don't understand how hard picking a winner from a 20 horse field where none have ever run the distance before can be.

.

Hell, most dont understand how hard it can be to pick a winner from any race, let alone one with 20 horses and none gone more than 9f, with the race at 10f

[Bubbles]

Not sure if it applies here (not software, pen and paper), but this is my post from the Triple Crown forum...

For those unfamiliar with my pen-and-paper system, it goes like this...

-20 Points: RAW TIMES

-10 Points: TRIP HISTORY

-10 Points: CLASS

-10 Points: BREEDING

-10 Points: WEIGHT

-10 Points: WORKOUTS

-10 Points: LIKING THE TRACK

-10 Points: LAYOFFS

-5 Points: CONNECTIONS

-5 Points: BEYERS

I look at every horse, comparing it with the rest of the field, before adding everything together to produce a figure, with 100 being the best possible.

For the Derby, I made a small exception, as there will be a mad dash for the early lead. I took every legit pace-setter, and subtracted two points from their final rating. For example, High Limit's WAS a 95, but after looking at the pace scenario, I bumped him down to a 93.

Before I post, let me make note that before I started, I found four horses, Giacomo, Spanish Chestnut, Going Wild, and Buzzard's Bay, who have ZERO shot here, and therefore did not receive a rating.

Here they are...

BANDINI - 97
HIGH LIMIT - 93
HIGH FLY, AFLEET ALEX, WILKO - 92
FLOWER ALLEY - 89
NOBLE CAUSEWAY - 88
SUN KING, DON'T GET MAD, CLOSING ARGUMENT - 87
BELLAMY ROAD - 86
ANDROMEDA'S HERO - 85
GREELEY'S GALAXY - 82
SORT IT OUT - 81
COIN SILVER, GREATER GOOD - 80

Feel free to post questions about how these came out, I'll be glad to answer.

Best of luck on Derby Day!

Bub's

[joeprunes]

The triple crown races are different than handicapping your every day races
The derby is based on foundation of the horse. Cause these are the top 2yr old coming to age as 3yr olds and so much is involved to conquer these 3 big races . They start off going a mile and a quarter, now thats not easy for these young 3yr olds. As far as what qualifies there is to many variables. Lets take Greeleys Galaxy,he never raced as a 2 yr old and no horse has ever won that didnt race as a 2 yr old in 100yrs(foundation) Their are many other things to consider. Most people are talking about Bellamy rd, will he bounce? Well that day he won and got a 120 beyers, maidens won with times of 108+, now does that tell you anything? So if BR repeats whos going to beat him? if he loses ,well he bounced and that track that day was the reason (imo). These are a couple of many factors to consider in the Derby. I got my facts from Jim L and they make sense. So good luck to all and to all study harder...jp

[mhrussell]

This is my final readout from my handicapping program (similar to TMM)
Sorted by PPF rating:
Style Post/ Pgm # Horse PBS PPF ML Odds
E/P 6 15 BANDINI 126 +3 6
E/P 7 9 GREELEY'S GALAXY 120 -4 15
E/P 3 14 WILKO 117 -9 20
E 6 11 HIGH FLY Rev W 118 -10 12
E/P 4 18 CLOSING ARGUMENT117 -10 30
E 8 16 BELLAMY ROAD 116 -12 5-2
P 2 4 NOBLE CAUSEWAY ®116 -13 12
P/S 1 2 ANDROMEDA'S HERO 117 -14 50
P 5 10 GIACOMO 113 -15 50
E 5 5 COIN SILVER Rev W113 -15 20
P 3 12 AFLEET ALEX 113 -18 9-2
P 2 1 SORT IT OUT ® 114 -18 50
E 7 6 HIGH LIMIT 113 -19 12
E 3 20 BUZZARDS BAY ▼113 -20 20
E 6 7 FLOWER ALLEY 112 -21 20
P/S 2 8 GREATER GOOD 113 -24 20
E 4 3 SUN KING 109 -25 15
E/P 7 19 GOING WILD 107 -29 50
E 8 13 SPANISH CHESTNUT 104 -34 50
S 0 17 DON'T GET MAD 103 -38 30


Several of us are posting more detailed analysis on the HandicappingMagic user board over at Yahoo...

[tboles]

Exoctic choices
Wilko
Bellamy Road
High Limit
Greeley's Galaxy

Win bets
High Limit
Greeley's Galaxy

Tony
www.thorostats.com

[kingfin66]

I don't generally pay much attention to workouts, but the DRF clocker reports have really been bashing Greeley's Galaxy, two really poor workouts, not a good sign.

Or, it could be a good sign. These are, after all, only workouts.

[BeatTheChalk]

Thanks a million for the post. I have not been able to load my TMation
program into my new computer :( However .. I think I have found a
person who can help me :)

[Houndog]

Just for a little different slant I ran the Kentucky Derby thru an older Sartin program (THOROMATION). I gave the distance of the race as 9 furlongs as I am using a couple of pace lines at 8.5 furlongs with the majority of the pacelines being 9 furlongs. If I use the distance of the Derby Thoromation will project only to 9.5 furlongs. I only entered 12 horses as that is all this program takes.

It should come as no surprise that Bellamy Road comes out on top by a large margin on the Thoromation screen. In fact the only horses that moved at all on this screen were Sun King ( 4 lines back). High Limit (2 lines back), Afleet Alex (last line), and Bellamy Road (last line). When viewing the Pre-Play screens the first screen is normally your confirmation screen. The EXDC screen shows first with Bellamy Road, Don't Get Mad and High Limit as your top 3. The SP screen
came up next with Afleet Alex, Flower Alley, High Limit, and Bellamy Road. This is using the automatic adjustment. The designated place horse or designated ITM horse was Bandini.

The program came up asking to use the number 2 adjustment because Total Energy was more than 1.75 points difference. By using this you equalize total energy which can really move slow horses up if you are not careful. Here we get a somewhat different story. Thoromation really liked the Oaklawn race with Afleet Alex, Flower Alley. It also liked High Limit's FG race. Bellamy Road ranked fifth on this screen. The pre-play screen that came up first this time was the SP screen. Afleet Alex, Flower Alley and High Limit came up in the top 3. On the EXDC screen Don't Get Mad, Greely's Galaxy and a tie between High Limit and High Fly for 3rd. As you can see the #2 adjust really changes things and really rewards certain horses that may not belong. Bandini was again the designated place horse. If I take out Bellamy Road altogether to see what other horses may win it comes up with Afleet Alex, Sun King, High Limit and Flower Alley. I do not really think Flower Alley can win but he could be used in TRI's. Once again Bandini is your DPH.

If you use High Limit's Fairgrounds race he shows up quite well, but he was not facing Bellamy Road. The program really liked the Arkansas Derby race and of course the Wood Memorial. The Santa Anita race and Florida Derby races were not rated as high. The Blue Grass was just so so. I was surprised that High Fly, Greely's Galaxy and Bandini to a lesser extent were not rated as high.

Without Bellamy Road included High Limit and Aflleet Alex show up on the various screens and Sun King to a lesser extent. The DPH or ITM horse has been Bandini in all cases.

[Charlie Judge]

Here are my picks for the whole Derby Day card. There are picks as handicapped by me using the Track Judge software, not the top 3 picks on the list.
Due to contract issues, I, like others, cannot post my reports online before the races have been run. Check www.track-judge.com next week for the reports.

Race 1

7 Northern Stag deserving favoorite.
4 Sunshinenbeer and 6 Natural Spring ITM horses

Race 2

2 scenarios.. 3 Wildcat Shoes wins on the lead, or 6 Premier Performer from behind. The race is very contentious with no clear advantage to any horse

Race 3
Lots of early pace, I pick 10 Southlake drive to win from behind. This horse is 30/1 ml and I expect he will at least get show, and might surprise as a winner.

Race 4
Prime picks are 8 On the Acorn, 10 Cool Conductor, and 12 Tempered Steel

Race 5
prime picks are 12 Pomeroy, 11 Sir Shackleton, and 4 Oceanos (longshot at 30/1 ml)

Race 6
5 furlong 2 yo stakes. Good luck in this one.
5 Yaddo Cat and 6 Half Ours are my weak picks, but I don't have much confidence in picking this race.

Race 7
No early speed in the race at all. If 8 SandSprings gets the lead, he might hold on to win. 1 Miss Terrible and 7 Ticker Tape have possibilities.

Race 8
9 Madcap Escapade dominates the field

Race 9
Very competitive. 1 Meteor Storm and 8 Mustanfar are most likely

Race 10
The Kentucky Derby
I think Belamy Road may go too fast too early to win this race. If he does, I am picking #5, Coin Silver, #12, Afleet Alex, and #9 Greeley's Galaxy as win contenders.

The actual output from the Track Judge program lists

16
9
11
12
19
6

as the top finish order, but I have chosen to override the picks using other aspects of the program. Let's see what happens.

Race 11

8 Brave Charmer dominates the field

Race 12

wide open. 4 Bavarian Baron most likely.

Good Luck on Derby Day

Charlie Judge

[shanta]

I use Speculator. Guidelines are entering pacelines where the horse either won or placed in a grade 1 or 2 race. ALL other lines are to be IGNORED.

I am showing 2 screen shots. First is betting line which shows Wilko and Afleet Alex as the top 2 selections. Bellamy is 3rd choice and is the designated "early".

I am betting BOTH Wilko amd Afleet Alex to win here.

2nd screen shot is early /late graph which shows both Wilko and "Alex" as the dominant late runners here. But NOT too late. Lets see if I can get both screen shots on this post

Best to all

Richie :)

How to totally blow a damn race. As you see by the oddsline Spec has this 20 horse field down to FOUR contenders following the tried and true derby contender selection guidelines. the winner is one of them. Odds line has him 5/2. I did NOT bet him because of a major brain fart.

Unreal.
:(

[PaceAdvantage]

What are the tried and true Derby contender selection guidelines?

[shanta]

What are the tried and true Derby contender selection guidelines?

1) Contenders are horses that won or placed in Grade 1 and Grade 2 races at distance of 8.5 fur and longer. NO other horses are to be entered.

2) Beaten lenghts finish are not to exceed 7.5 lenghts on pacelines being considered.

3) After entering these qualifying lines go to e/l graph ( 2nd screen shot) and REMOVE any horse on RIGHT side of the Center line ( early) REGARDLESS of speed rating for that line.

4) Using a combination of total energy rank and line score rank hide down to top 5 and ties removing horses ONE at a time.

For whatever reason I was able to narrow to FOUR pretty comfortably in this race PA. Once again BURNED by trying to PICK the winner ( ego, top2 itis etc)) instead of just going with the flow of remaining contenders and wagering based on value. It really sucked being me Saturday.

Richie

[46zilzal]

[QUOTE=shanta]
3) After entering these qualifying lines go to e/l graph ( 2nd screen shot) and REMOVE any horse on RIGHT side of the Center line ( early) REGARDLESS of speed rating for that line.
/QUOTE]
THAT would have eliminated BOTH War Emblem and Funny Cide alone.