bdhsheets
05-02-2002, 03:15 AM
Conf: Triple Crown Forum
From: bdhsheets bdhsheets@hotmail.com
Date: Wednesday, May 01, 2002 07:32 AM
Just sharing a post I made at The Bloodhorse Forum, I added an explanation of RAN, Damascus and Buckpasser as it pertains to the Derby at the end of the first paragraph.
Last three T-Graph figs starting three races back plus a final look at the breeding. All of the breeding info from Dr. Steve Romans website www.chef-de-race.com. and www.dmtc.com Del Mars website. No dosage indices, they all qualify. AWD (average win distance from open stakes sire/broodmare sire, "*" less than 5 horses), %C is percentage of progeny winning at classic distances 9.5, 10 and 12 furlongs plus additional commentary (imagine that). BTW though RAN on the bottom has never won the Derby, it has filled in many slots in the exotics. (RAN is Raise a Native sire line, which has never won with it being present on the broodmare sire line 0 for 30 something in the Derby, Point Given was first RAN horse that won a Belmont; the Damascus curse pertains to any horse that has Damascus on the broodmare side of the pedigree, they've never won a Derby! Having Buckpasser in the first five generations is a big Derby plus)
Blue Burner: 6.75, 2.25, 3.00. Bailey may regret leaving this one. He's a very live longshot likely 40-1++. awd 8.00 %C 9.1/ 8.21 %C 10.6. Has dreaded RAN but it's an Alydar mare, post hurts this one big time.
Buddha: 5.0, "0.75", 3.5. Wood bounce might continue. Bond wasted a huge effort on a freakin alw race. I've often been scoffed at when I say the trainer is the last to know how the horse will really run, this is a prime example. I stated earlier that the HUGE # in his 3rd lifetime start has to hurt, but who knows for sure. RAN over ND a Storm Cat mare for 10F? awd 7.85 %C '0'/7.35 %C '0' neither side with an 8.0+ awd, big negative. Of course each horse is different but awd indicators say no.
Came Home: "0.0", 1.25, 3.75 bi (dreaded bore in notation) hate his pattern and will leave off any tix, if he beats me, no biggie. It's only one race. awd 7.87 %C 4.6/6.95 %C4.9
Castle Gandolfo: no figs. awd 7.87 %C 4.6/8.34 %C 11.6 RAN over ND; Buckpasser in 3rd gen on BM sire side. Whether he can/can't, who knows for sure, Betting no. Bailey Derby '02 bad Karma follows him to Coolmore
Easy Grades: -10.5 ([-]=turf) 3.25, 3.25. Great leap forward may be a dirt move up with turf sire Honor Grades, ? go figure. 3yo pair ups are always a good thing. I'm betting he'll move forward. ND over dreaded RAN, BUUTTTT he is by an Easy Goer/Alydar mare (RAN buster if there ever was one LOL) He has Buckpasser on both sides of the pedigree in the 4th gen. awd 9.08 (8.0 dirt) %C 27.8 turf no doubt/8.00* dominant Classicity (Classic part of profile greater than the other parts combined) 6-7-19-4-0. With the SA Derby being bludgeoned EG will be 40-1++
Essence of Dubai: 6.25 17.5BC, n/a 4.5 TG guess in the UAE Derby. Not crazy about any of the foreigners. Has the P/NP bloodline cross that has won many Derbies. awd 8.25* %C '0'/7.72 %C '0'. Has a half bro. 2yo by Swain named Albaaz.
Harlans Holiday: 2.25, "0.50", 2.25. Is it a bounce if you go back to your original top? Of course it is! Sheet theory says "0" (top) followed by an effort within 2pts of the new top will lead to an "X", an effort 4pts+ from the new top. Last was the first backward move in his life. With all the big efforts, have to believe the "X" is coming. RAN on the bottom with an Affirmed mare. awd 8.72 %C '0'/8.16 %C 3.4 he gets no respect and will get none from me.
Itsallinthechase: 5.5, 9.0, 5.5, 8.5 too slow and has RAN on the bottom. awd 8.33* %C '0'/7.50 %C '0' Pound him!!!!!
Johannesburg: -7.25, 6.25BC, n/a P/NP bloodlines cross, has dreaded Damascus curse in 3rd gen on BM side. awd 7.92 %C '0'/7.42 %C '0' WHO KNOWS?
Lusty Latin: 9.5, 7.5, 4.5 on the slow side with EOD (couldn't resist LOL) improving by leaps and bounds, reason I wanted to know when LL had his surgery. RAN on bottom with an Afleet mare doesn't sound like a RAN buster. awd 7.58 %C '0'/6.50 %C '0'
Mayakovsky: 4.75 [2yo], 3.0 bo, 6.5 will be visiting disabled list soon if he runs in the Derby, my not so humble opinion. RAN on bottom awd 8.0* %C '0'/7.63* '0'. Biancone may think he's the best 3yo in the country, HA!
Medaglia D'Oro: 7.0, 2.5, 2.5 Always like a 3yo pair up. Has P/NP cross, but also dreaded Damascus jinx in the 3rd gen on BM line. awd 7.58 %C '0'/8.43 %C '0' he'll be in the mix. 87% of EL Prado progeny stks winners are 8.5F or less. Hard to toss.
Ocean Sound: 6.5, 6.0. 6.0 woefully slow here. awd na/na Pound Him!!!!!!!!!
Perfect Drift: 5.25, 3.0, "0.5" Horse has never gone backwards and a brilliant move to train up to the race. Yeah yeah yeah tradition says this and that. Rest was the best course at the time. In the future you'll see more 3yo horses resting after big efforts in March. Dominant Classicity 8-3-18-0-1. awd 8.62 %C 6.7/8.57 %C 11.6......... 37% of Dynaformer stks progeny win at 9 furlongs or more (I won't add the 32% that win at 8.5F ha ha ha) I'm praying for 15-1, might not get it. Big contender or gigantic sheets flop.
Private Emblem: -11.25, 6.0, 2.0 I suspect a big bounce coming. The 6 was a break through his 2yo top and a nice forward move. He hasn't paired in the past. RAN over Halo. awd 8.38* %C '0'/8.28 %C 4.9. Has Damascus in 4th gen and Buckpasser 5th gen on the sire line. Pass
Proud Citizen: 12.25 [2yo], 7.75, 4.25 Lukas, nuff said. He promised a victory Saturday. awd 7.87 %C 4.6/8.57 %C '0'. Has Buckpasser in 3rd gen on BM side. Wish he wasn't in the race.
Request for Parole: 2.5, 2.5, 2.5 another who took the smart route and waiting the 6 weeks with PD. (I use 'smart' advisedly LOL) Say what you will this horse is a battler. Post draw very important for this one. Has unusual NP/P blood cross awd 8.00* %C '0'/7.95 %C '0' Deputy Minister progeny 40% 9F+ Hard to toss.
Saarland: 7.5[2yo], 3.25, 3.25 Another who has never gone back, but a touch on the slow side. I don't buy the held his breath BS, Shug's nose must have grown a foot. The surgery will help, but how much. This is a different horse. 2yo plodder now can pick 'em up and lay 'em down as in the Gotham. A move forward makes him a contender. awd 8.75 %C 13/8.03 %C 10. RAN over ND 7-12-19-0-6 is a fine profile; Buckpasser 3rd gen BM side, 5th gen sire side. 1/2 brother to fine euro turfer Diktat. Has 2yo 1/2 brother by Coronados Quest, Negotiation. A must use.
War Emblem: 10.0, 1.0, 1.0 bounce very likely after pairing a 7.75 move forward. Prince Ahmed bought him a race too late. Buuuut if he three peats and gets a rail trip, he'll be very hard to beat, stinkin Baffy! awd 8.38* %C '0'/8.17 '0' On the sire side has Damascus in the 4th gen and Buckpasser in the 5th. Post draw important, fast enuff to win.
Wild Horses: 8.25, 6.75, 6.75 woefully slow with these.
Windward Passage: 9.5, 3.5, 6.0 bounce was expected after big top. Have to believe hasn't recovered yet. awd 8.5* %C '0'/8.28 %C 5.6 RAN on the bottom, Buckpasser in 4th gen BM side. Pass.
Hoping on the one hand that USS Tinosa and Sunday Break make it in. Buuut it will make everything far more expensive.
A special thanks to Dr Steve Roman for his most wonderful website and for the tremendous work that at times may seem thankless. Thanks again Dr Roman!
A thank you also to the Del Mar Turf Club for maintaining their pedigree website.
Last but not least, thanks to Jerry Brown of Thorograph for their numbers that often are often eye openers in this year of "the slow horse"!!!!
Good luck Saturday and may they all come back safely!!!
bdhsheets
From: bdhsheets bdhsheets@hotmail.com
Date: Wednesday, May 01, 2002 07:32 AM
Just sharing a post I made at The Bloodhorse Forum, I added an explanation of RAN, Damascus and Buckpasser as it pertains to the Derby at the end of the first paragraph.
Last three T-Graph figs starting three races back plus a final look at the breeding. All of the breeding info from Dr. Steve Romans website www.chef-de-race.com. and www.dmtc.com Del Mars website. No dosage indices, they all qualify. AWD (average win distance from open stakes sire/broodmare sire, "*" less than 5 horses), %C is percentage of progeny winning at classic distances 9.5, 10 and 12 furlongs plus additional commentary (imagine that). BTW though RAN on the bottom has never won the Derby, it has filled in many slots in the exotics. (RAN is Raise a Native sire line, which has never won with it being present on the broodmare sire line 0 for 30 something in the Derby, Point Given was first RAN horse that won a Belmont; the Damascus curse pertains to any horse that has Damascus on the broodmare side of the pedigree, they've never won a Derby! Having Buckpasser in the first five generations is a big Derby plus)
Blue Burner: 6.75, 2.25, 3.00. Bailey may regret leaving this one. He's a very live longshot likely 40-1++. awd 8.00 %C 9.1/ 8.21 %C 10.6. Has dreaded RAN but it's an Alydar mare, post hurts this one big time.
Buddha: 5.0, "0.75", 3.5. Wood bounce might continue. Bond wasted a huge effort on a freakin alw race. I've often been scoffed at when I say the trainer is the last to know how the horse will really run, this is a prime example. I stated earlier that the HUGE # in his 3rd lifetime start has to hurt, but who knows for sure. RAN over ND a Storm Cat mare for 10F? awd 7.85 %C '0'/7.35 %C '0' neither side with an 8.0+ awd, big negative. Of course each horse is different but awd indicators say no.
Came Home: "0.0", 1.25, 3.75 bi (dreaded bore in notation) hate his pattern and will leave off any tix, if he beats me, no biggie. It's only one race. awd 7.87 %C 4.6/6.95 %C4.9
Castle Gandolfo: no figs. awd 7.87 %C 4.6/8.34 %C 11.6 RAN over ND; Buckpasser in 3rd gen on BM sire side. Whether he can/can't, who knows for sure, Betting no. Bailey Derby '02 bad Karma follows him to Coolmore
Easy Grades: -10.5 ([-]=turf) 3.25, 3.25. Great leap forward may be a dirt move up with turf sire Honor Grades, ? go figure. 3yo pair ups are always a good thing. I'm betting he'll move forward. ND over dreaded RAN, BUUTTTT he is by an Easy Goer/Alydar mare (RAN buster if there ever was one LOL) He has Buckpasser on both sides of the pedigree in the 4th gen. awd 9.08 (8.0 dirt) %C 27.8 turf no doubt/8.00* dominant Classicity (Classic part of profile greater than the other parts combined) 6-7-19-4-0. With the SA Derby being bludgeoned EG will be 40-1++
Essence of Dubai: 6.25 17.5BC, n/a 4.5 TG guess in the UAE Derby. Not crazy about any of the foreigners. Has the P/NP bloodline cross that has won many Derbies. awd 8.25* %C '0'/7.72 %C '0'. Has a half bro. 2yo by Swain named Albaaz.
Harlans Holiday: 2.25, "0.50", 2.25. Is it a bounce if you go back to your original top? Of course it is! Sheet theory says "0" (top) followed by an effort within 2pts of the new top will lead to an "X", an effort 4pts+ from the new top. Last was the first backward move in his life. With all the big efforts, have to believe the "X" is coming. RAN on the bottom with an Affirmed mare. awd 8.72 %C '0'/8.16 %C 3.4 he gets no respect and will get none from me.
Itsallinthechase: 5.5, 9.0, 5.5, 8.5 too slow and has RAN on the bottom. awd 8.33* %C '0'/7.50 %C '0' Pound him!!!!!
Johannesburg: -7.25, 6.25BC, n/a P/NP bloodlines cross, has dreaded Damascus curse in 3rd gen on BM side. awd 7.92 %C '0'/7.42 %C '0' WHO KNOWS?
Lusty Latin: 9.5, 7.5, 4.5 on the slow side with EOD (couldn't resist LOL) improving by leaps and bounds, reason I wanted to know when LL had his surgery. RAN on bottom with an Afleet mare doesn't sound like a RAN buster. awd 7.58 %C '0'/6.50 %C '0'
Mayakovsky: 4.75 [2yo], 3.0 bo, 6.5 will be visiting disabled list soon if he runs in the Derby, my not so humble opinion. RAN on bottom awd 8.0* %C '0'/7.63* '0'. Biancone may think he's the best 3yo in the country, HA!
Medaglia D'Oro: 7.0, 2.5, 2.5 Always like a 3yo pair up. Has P/NP cross, but also dreaded Damascus jinx in the 3rd gen on BM line. awd 7.58 %C '0'/8.43 %C '0' he'll be in the mix. 87% of EL Prado progeny stks winners are 8.5F or less. Hard to toss.
Ocean Sound: 6.5, 6.0. 6.0 woefully slow here. awd na/na Pound Him!!!!!!!!!
Perfect Drift: 5.25, 3.0, "0.5" Horse has never gone backwards and a brilliant move to train up to the race. Yeah yeah yeah tradition says this and that. Rest was the best course at the time. In the future you'll see more 3yo horses resting after big efforts in March. Dominant Classicity 8-3-18-0-1. awd 8.62 %C 6.7/8.57 %C 11.6......... 37% of Dynaformer stks progeny win at 9 furlongs or more (I won't add the 32% that win at 8.5F ha ha ha) I'm praying for 15-1, might not get it. Big contender or gigantic sheets flop.
Private Emblem: -11.25, 6.0, 2.0 I suspect a big bounce coming. The 6 was a break through his 2yo top and a nice forward move. He hasn't paired in the past. RAN over Halo. awd 8.38* %C '0'/8.28 %C 4.9. Has Damascus in 4th gen and Buckpasser 5th gen on the sire line. Pass
Proud Citizen: 12.25 [2yo], 7.75, 4.25 Lukas, nuff said. He promised a victory Saturday. awd 7.87 %C 4.6/8.57 %C '0'. Has Buckpasser in 3rd gen on BM side. Wish he wasn't in the race.
Request for Parole: 2.5, 2.5, 2.5 another who took the smart route and waiting the 6 weeks with PD. (I use 'smart' advisedly LOL) Say what you will this horse is a battler. Post draw very important for this one. Has unusual NP/P blood cross awd 8.00* %C '0'/7.95 %C '0' Deputy Minister progeny 40% 9F+ Hard to toss.
Saarland: 7.5[2yo], 3.25, 3.25 Another who has never gone back, but a touch on the slow side. I don't buy the held his breath BS, Shug's nose must have grown a foot. The surgery will help, but how much. This is a different horse. 2yo plodder now can pick 'em up and lay 'em down as in the Gotham. A move forward makes him a contender. awd 8.75 %C 13/8.03 %C 10. RAN over ND 7-12-19-0-6 is a fine profile; Buckpasser 3rd gen BM side, 5th gen sire side. 1/2 brother to fine euro turfer Diktat. Has 2yo 1/2 brother by Coronados Quest, Negotiation. A must use.
War Emblem: 10.0, 1.0, 1.0 bounce very likely after pairing a 7.75 move forward. Prince Ahmed bought him a race too late. Buuuut if he three peats and gets a rail trip, he'll be very hard to beat, stinkin Baffy! awd 8.38* %C '0'/8.17 '0' On the sire side has Damascus in the 4th gen and Buckpasser in the 5th. Post draw important, fast enuff to win.
Wild Horses: 8.25, 6.75, 6.75 woefully slow with these.
Windward Passage: 9.5, 3.5, 6.0 bounce was expected after big top. Have to believe hasn't recovered yet. awd 8.5* %C '0'/8.28 %C 5.6 RAN on the bottom, Buckpasser in 4th gen BM side. Pass.
Hoping on the one hand that USS Tinosa and Sunday Break make it in. Buuut it will make everything far more expensive.
A special thanks to Dr Steve Roman for his most wonderful website and for the tremendous work that at times may seem thankless. Thanks again Dr Roman!
A thank you also to the Del Mar Turf Club for maintaining their pedigree website.
Last but not least, thanks to Jerry Brown of Thorograph for their numbers that often are often eye openers in this year of "the slow horse"!!!!
Good luck Saturday and may they all come back safely!!!
bdhsheets