Bellamy Road Buzz ? Not as much as one would expect

[BeatTheChalk]

I hear it a little bit ...NOTHING LIKE SMARTY last time around. Should be
a good race...I admit in front of all of yah ...I can not figure the race. So
good luck to you all.

[Skanoochies]

Actually I don`t remember too many people being high on Smarty last year til after he won the derby. He just seemed to be a lukewarm contender to most folks. :confused:

[keilan]

I answered with the following................

04-30-2004, 06:46 PM #19
keilan
Registered User

Well Ralph here goes, with Smarty Jones 1st time lasix I'll make him the horse to beat, the other horse I like is Read The Footnotes. I really hope he has fully recovered from the Fountain of Youth, we'll see.

[chickenhead]

How does the Derby run? Who wins? ;)

[keilan]

How about we start with horses that wouldn't hit the board, my horse's are;

(#2) Andromeda's Hero
(#5) Coin Silver
(#13) Spanish Chestnut
(#17) Don't Get Mad
(#18) Closing Argument
(#19) Going Wild
(#20) Buzzards Bay

[Tom]

Several horses look to have more improvement left.

The big two - Bellamy Road and Afleet Alex - don't figure to bounce IMHO.
That 120 is hard to ignore...if it is real.

I remember War Emblem coming in off a huge number and my prediction that he would be last by over 30 lengths........

Taking off Thursday afternoon and Friday to study CD/Bel/Hol cards for Fri-Sat.
Should be a great weekend of racing.

[chickenhead]

How about we start with horses that wouldn't hit the board, my horse's are;

(#2) Andromeda's Hero
(#5) Coin Silver
(#13) Spanish Chestnut
(#17) Don't Get Mad
(#18) Closing Argument
(#19) Going Wild
(#20) Buzzards Bay

I don't play the supers, but if I did, I would add Sort It Out and Greeley's Galaxy to the toss list. Sort It Out will get buried, and I just don't think Greeley is going to do any running at all.

[keilan]

Afleet Alex is a horse that I have never liked to win the Derby. While I believe he is above average for this crop of 3yo's I would be awfully surprised to see him get the roses.

Horses that I think will out-run their odds Saturday are

(#3) Sun King 15-1
(#6) High Limit 12-1
(#7) Flower Power 20-1
(#14) Wilko 20-1

[keilan]

Interesting comments on both those horses.

I posted that "Sort It Out" would move forward in the Lexington and he ended up running his top on a track that didn't favour his running style. Will he win the Derby - NO, but he could complete the tri or super imo. The pace of the race should be quick enough for this bunch and I like this horse's energy.

Greeley's Galaxy is a horse I like very much. this guy has a huge gas tank. It's unfortunate he ran so large last out because that performance would have made him famous. I'll be keying him with another horse that I think should also run large.

Luv trading opinions, thats's what makes this game so fun. :)

[chickenhead]

Good luck with Greeley, but watching him the last week I think he looks terrible. I could have outrun him in the stretch of his mile work..then he came back for 5, trainer wanted 1.00.00 and got 1.01.3. Could be nuthin.

Sort It Out, was a must run big kinda day, and he did run well, I just think he'll end up with a 6 car pile up right in front of him.

If I were playing the Super, I would key Sun King/Bandini for two slots.

Good Luck!

[keilan]

Good Luck to you :)

[highnote]

Afleet Alex is a horse that I have never liked to win the Derby. While I believe he is above average for this crop of 3yo's I would be awfully surprised to see him get the roses.


Keilan,

The thing I love about horseracing is how people can view the same race so differently.

I like Afleet to win. I plan on putting a win bet on him.

I like Andromeda's Hero underneath -- maybe third or fourth. He had a bad trip in the Ark and might have finished closer with a clean one. I look for him to move up. I don't think I've read anything by any journalist yet who likes Andromeda. That's good for his price. I just hope they're wrong.

I'll use Bellamy and other logicals in second in the exactas. I'm not going to bet much in exactas, tris or supers. No boxing at all -- just part wheels keying off of Alex. If AA loses, I lose.

This is my bet (tentatively) :

$100 win Afleet
$20 exacta Afleet/Bellamy (that'll be a monster payoff :lol: ) NOT
$10 exacta Afleet/High Fly, High Limit & Sun King
$5 trifecta AA/BR, HF, HL, SK/BR, HF, HL, SK, Andromeda's Hero
$2 super AA/BR/HF, HL, SK, AH/HF, HL, SK, AH

I may cut the exotic bets in half -- that way it won't hurt so much when Afleet runs up the track. :faint:

[keilan]

swetyejohn,

I've read many of your posts and believe you to be a good player. Good players often use their key horses to run in more than one spot. Whatever you do -- best of trips.

Bellany Road has been a monster since entering Zito's barn, he's my other key horse. If Afleet Alex wins the race all my tickets will be wall paper and I will have spent a tad more wagering than you. :)

[Tote Master]

If I were relying on just the PP’s and recent workouts, my top Derby selections (in order of preference) for a fast track would be the following:

Bellamy Road – best of the speed in this race. Others trying to run with him will get cooked. I would love to see another great one develop and he's certainly has that potential.

Bandini – good tactical speed and on the improve in each prep race.

High Fly – also good tactical speed and improving in every race each month since January.

Afleet Alex – strong closer, but may be hampered by jock in a huge field.

Noble Causeway – strong closer and also getting better with every race.

Greely’s Galaxy will have to try and run with Bellamy Road’s pace. I don’t believe he has enough foundation to hold on for a win. Maybe 3rd or 4th at best.

I will see how the betting goes with these selections and look for value in the Exactas and Triples. Probably key the top one.

Best of luck in the Derby!

[highnote]

swetyejohn,

I've read many of your posts and believe you to be a good player. Good players often use their key horses to run in more than one spot. Whatever you do -- best of trips.

Bellany Road has been a monster since entering Zito's barn, he's my other key horse. If Afleet Alex wins the race all my tickets will be wall paper and I will have spent a tad more wagering than you. :)

K,

Don't always believe what you read :D

I haven't studied the race much, so when it comes time to lay down my hard earned money, I may bet less. Who knows? So maybe you'll end up betting a helluva lot more than me.

But $200 is usually what I invest in the Derby. I'm not attending this year, so I can afford to bet a little more. Then again, maybe I'll save it for the Belmont, which I am planning to attend.

Good luck!!!

J

[Suff]

I had a Dream last Night. It was very Confusing. This morning I'm still trying to Sort it out.

I keep coming back to this Colt.... It is based in his running style, and the make up of the Field, and a Hunch feeling.

...I may be putting Sort it out on the ticket.

..

[cj]

Suff,

They drew yesterday:

http://www.drf.com/entries/07/eCD07.html#10

[Suff]

Suff,

They drew yesterday:

http://www.drf.com/entries/07/eCD07.html#10

yes I missed the Draw... I worked till 7...and then me, sully, John(rocjack) and Charlie went out to dinner till late. I wasn't near a TV or computer tll this morning. I"ll have derby anaylsis up by 7pm tonight.

[Light]

Lonshot hopes

Sure hope someone goes out with Bellamy,cause I wont bet fav's in the Derby. Looks like Spanish Chestnut is the main hope to press Bellamy. If Bellamy is pressed,I'm allmost certain he will wilt(99%).If not,longshot players are in trouble. Not crazy about Afleet, Bandini may have peaked,but I wouldn't throw him out.

But I'm looking for shots. 3 horses look interesting. Noble Causeway(12-1),Coin Silver(20-1) and Greeley's Galaxy(15-1). These 3 are either going to bounce or improve and they all have the impending improvement pattern. There are several others who also show impending improvement,but these 3 are most pronounced. The others who have a price are Wilko(20-1) and Buzzards Bay(20-1).

[keilan]

I went through the pp’s reviewing my notes on each horse in the Derby and surprisingly enough I don’t have any comments regarding the likelihood of any horse bouncing / regressing.

I’ve already commented in this thread on horses I expect to move forward /out-run their odds.

If Afleet Alex doesn’t win I can just hear guys talking about how the horse bounced. There is absolutely nothing in any of his running lines, race pattern that would support that position imo. When I project a power number for this guy based on an estimated pace I just can’t envision that number winning the Derby. And finally this horse will need Rose to give him a ground saving, perfectly timed ride. Does Rose have the confidence and maturity to wait-and -wait before he hits the go button? If he goes too earlier the horse isn’t good enough to over come that and will hang in the stretch.

A horse that’s not going to receive much attention before the Derby will be Flower Alley, I really believe with the addition of blinkers this guy moves forward big time. If Chop-Chop keeps him covered up he will surprise some players.

[kev]

I use the Ragozin sheets and they don't have his last race as his top. This is how the last three races are on the sheets 0+ 14+ 2- Beyer and Thorograph has his last as his best race. The thing is with these big 3 they could bounce and still run well, cause of their number power.

[highnote]

And finally this horse will need Rose to give him a ground saving, perfectly timed ride. Does Rose have the confidence and maturity to wait-and -wait before he hits the go button?

Keilan,

Good point about Rose.

Pittsburgh Phil said something to the effect:

"A good jockey. A good horse. A good bet."

"A modest jockey. A good horse. A modest bet."

I may have to scale back my win bet by 25% on Afleet because of the jockey.

I'll also decrease my exacta bet.

However, I'll add a few horses underneath in the tri and super -- Noble Causway, Greeley, and Bandini. That should cover me for the most likely scenarios.

No one likes Andromeda. He almost came 2nd to AA in the Arkansas Derby -- yet he's 50-1 to win. I wonder if what his odds are to come second, third or fourth?

js

[keilan]

Swetyejohn,

I’ve gone back and looked at Andromeda’s Hero’s race lines and I’ll try and explain why I have reservations about this horse.

The first four races of his career he ran very modest numbers, still recording two wins. In the LanesEnd race the surface was wet and he improved all numbers to that point, I generally downgrade those numbers on a wet surface. In his final prep (the Ark) he runs a new top but that number isn’t strong enough for him to be considered a serious contender imo.

So two questions that need to be considered are;
1) Is it reasonable to presume that he will move forward that much again?
2) And is a sustained running style with tolerable numbers going to get a piece of the exotics?

The only thing I love about the horse will be his odds and I never would discourage any player from taking a swing. I'm tempted myself to play Flower Alley in the 2nd ,3rd and 4th spots.

7-horses that will be on or near the pace

6) High limit – if Dominquez doesn’t rate this horse some the early speed will kill his chances
9) Greeley’s Galaxy – horse looks formidable to me. As long as Desormeaux doesn’t ride him like it’s a rodeo I like his chances.
13) Spanish Chestnut - out of Baby Rabbit he's the rabbit here, this horse doesn’t belong.
15) Bandini – versatile horse but needs to get covered up to flash his best stuff.
16) Bellamy Road – monster horse for Zito, repeat of the WOOD makes him the one to beat. That’s the 64 million dollar question “how will he go Saturday”
19) Going Wild – no shot
20)Buzzards Bay – Mullins would need extra special meds to hit the board here.

[highnote]

Swetyejohn,

I’ve gone back and looked at Andromeda’s Hero’s race lines and I’ll try and explain why I have reservations about this horse.

Keilan,

I agree with your paper analysis.

But from a race replay analysis I think the horse has a good chance of landing in the exotics. I seriously doubt that he can win.

Another view would be, if he gets into trouble in a race with only 10 or 12 horses, what's going to happen to him in a race like the Derby -- even more trouble?

Then again, once bitten, twice shy -- so maybe the horse and jock gained some valuable experience from the Ark?

We'll find out tomorrow!!

I can't wait to read all the post-mortems. :D

js

[Valuist]

Wasn't everyone saying the same thing about Stuart Elliot last year? Rose's ride in the BC wasn't great; he definitely moved too soon. The Champagne wasn't really his fault; Velazquez rode a great race keeping AA locked in until it was too late to catch Proud Accolade. I don't think Rose had ever ridden at Oaklawn before and he ended up winning the title, and I know it wasn't all Richey's horses. That's no easy accomplishment; coming in totally new and ending up taking the meet title.

[LemonSoupKid]

exactly. i don't think there's any reason to stay away from Alex on account of his jockey ...

I mean, has Javier Castellano won the Derby? Have we heard about him this week? No. He's a great rider too. This is just news BS to fill pages

L

[highnote]

Wasn't everyone saying the same thing about Stuart Elliot last year? Rose's ride in the BC wasn't great; he definitely moved too soon. The Champagne wasn't really his fault; Velazquez rode a great race keeping AA locked in until it was too late to catch Proud Accolade. I don't think Rose had ever ridden at Oaklawn before and he ended up winning the title, and I know it wasn't all Richey's horses. That's no easy accomplishment; coming in totally new and ending up taking the meet title.

Thanks, V.

Guess I'm back up to a 100% bet on AA!

js

[Valuist]

My only concern with a non-top name rider could be nerves. Rose did ride in the BC Juvenile, however so he does have some experiece on a big stage. But the Derby is a pretty big stage. But Elloit did handle it real well last year. He showed no signs of being intimidated by the whole world watching. It does seem that there are quite a few similarities between AA and Smarty Jones.

[keilan]

Easy guys, let’s not start comparing Elliot to Rose. Elliot is a journeymen rider who is getting close to 40yo’s. Rose is still wet behind the ears but is probably a better rider day in day out, but this is the BIG race.

Most importantly Smarty Pants and Afleet Alex have very dissimilar running styles and that is why I made the comment regarding Rose. Smarty Pants was part of the pace and Afleet runs at the pace -- very different rides in a 20 horse field.

What I would like to hear from posters is who they like in 2005 and why --- talking about last years Derby doesn’t mean much, especially since most of you didn’t have Smarty before the race.

[highnote]

What I would like to hear from posters is who they like in 2005 and why --- talking about last years Derby doesn’t mean much, especially since most of you didn’t have Smarty before the race.

Keilan,

Here is the main reason I like AA:

http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/derby_preview_2005.htm

[OTM Al]

From someone who was all over Smarty last year from January on.....

I like Alex the best, followed by Bellamy Road and High Fly. The whys...

Alex: One of the few that has shown the speed that wins derbys. Experienced and performed extremely well against top competition. Can rate in a pace filled race, but also has the speed to get up in the mix if somehow the rabbits don't rabbit. The deciding factor to put him first though is his proven experience.

BR: He's damn fast. His strides are huge. In the post parade before the Wood it struck me that he was the most healthy, perfect looking specimin I'd seen in some time. If he gets loose coming around the final turn, he's gone. He only rates #2 though for his lack of quality experience.

High Fly: Not the fastest of the lot, but had the best 3 yo campaign. 4 stakes races, 3 graded, was the best in all of them. He hasn't flashed the speed the other 2 have, but his quality and experience speak well for him. He may well not have the endurance as the pundits like to claim, but based on what he has done this year to this point, I have to use him in all positions.

Honestly, I would be very surprised if any other horse wins this race for the following reasons

Bandini: Shown about the same speed as High Fly, but reports I've read say he's a bit skittish. He's one I would worry that the crowd may get to. Will keep a very close eye on that.

Greeley's Galaxy: Lacking in experience, plain and simple

Sun King: Only showed quality speed in 1 turn race

Wilko: May come chugging up late to grab a small piece, but he's going to have traffic problems and he's never run fast enough

High Limit: Has yet to show he is not a 1-dimensional horse. Expect him to get chewed up by the early pace.

Noble Causeway: Lack of experience, but saying right now the Belmont has his name written all over it

Everyone else...sorry, too slow. Use them under in tris or supers at your own risk, though I might do that with one of them.

[Valuist]

A couple I like: Afleet Alex because he has the ability, the running style, and the foundation to get it done. I also think he can be more agile around the tight turns than a 17 hand monster like Bellamy Road. The most overlooked horse? Definitely High Fly. A strong rail bias at GP is the only thing that kept him from being unbeaten. My pace figures have the Florida Derby as a pretty fast pace, and he was prompting it. IMO, he ran a far superior race to Noble Causeway, who benefitted from the pace. The favorite could win but you're going to get 3-2 or so. Despite the big margins, I don't think he beat anyone decent. He's obviously a threat, but the Steinbrenner factor probably will pull more money on him since EVERYBODY in the country knows who "Big Stein" is.

[keilan]

Keilan,

Here is the main reason I like AA:

http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/derby_preview_2005.htm

Excellent -- I'm quite familiar with all of those measurements so I understood almost all of what was written.

JS, clearly you understand that I think Afleet Alex is a decent horse.

I wish you the best of luck with Alex and hope you catch Andromeda’s Hero’s for the exactor. :)

[TrackManSam]

I abslutely love steady improvers, and that leads me to my derby pick Noble Causeway. Love the switch to Stevens and the horse that beat him in the FLA Derby High Fly figures not to have as good a trip. Bellamy in my eyes could easily bounce and so can Afleet Alex, especially when their are 18 other horses to worry about. I also think Greater Good can be a price possibility. Dominated Rebel but blew up in Ark Derby...Afleet is just the opposite. He blew up in the Rebel and dominated in the Ark Derby.


I play $50 WP on #4..$4 Exacta 4,12 with 4(Noble Causeway), 7 (Flower Alley), 8 (Greater Good), 12 (Afleet Alex)

[highnote]

No wonder this is a tough game to beat. All you have to do is read all the fantastic analysis so far and you quickly realize you're playing in the major leagues.

js

[rrbauer]

A little after 8PM on Derby Eve.

Just finished looking at them for the first time and unless Bellamy Road falls down, this race is his. He is the classic frontrunner that closes. This is the War Image race all over again. 'Road can bounce and beat this bunch!

[OldTimeNyraGuy]

A little after 8PM on Derby Eve.

Just finished looking at them for the first time and unless Bellamy Road falls down, this race is his. He is the classic frontrunner that closes. This is the War Image race all over again. 'Road can bounce and beat this bunch!

I agree. Every theory used for Bellamy Road (bounce, etc.) could easily apply to the other horses, and every theory applied to the other horses (improvement, breeding, trainer, etc.) could easily apply to Bellamy Road.

The last horse to set or tie a track record in his final prep for a Triple Crown race was Conquistador Cielo, who went 1:33 for the mile beating older horses in the Metropolitan, and five days later he won the Belmont by fifteen, paying a generous 4-1. No "bounce" there. To say that Bellamy Road would bounce is tantamount to saying that Zito doesn't know how to get a peak performance out of him on Derby Day, since he could have easily done so had he chosen.

People say "the favorite" isn't going to win the Derby, and in doing so, they change who that favorite is. Usually around that time, a trend begins reversing.