Does anyone think Afleet Alex will bounce in the Derby?

[Bill Cullen]

I'm looking at Afleet Alex's pp's going into this Saturday's Kentcuky Derby and I noticed that each time he ran a Beyer of 99 or greater, he bounced in the following race. Anyone think he's a bounce candidate for the Derby or have any related thoughts?

thanks,

Bill Cullen

[Valuist]

Yeah I think there's a good chance of it happening. I realize he was sick for the Rebel and that makes his poor effort there excusable, but it was such a huge move forward in the Arky Derby. I know Bellamy Road and Bandini made huge moves forward also but neither of them were coming off an illness with their big forward move. I also think the quality of the Blue Grass was much deeper than that in the Arky Derby. There really was no quality early speed at Hot Springs that day and AA definitely had no problem showing who had the best acceleration. I also think that since AA has been running in big races longer than the other two, I think he is more of a public horse. But that isn't to say the other two couldn't bounce also. In terms of likely bounce, I'd rank AA first, Bandini second and then Bellamy Road.

Greeley's Galaxy could also be a candidate to bounce but he doesn't figure to be bet anywhere near as much as those three. He could pair up that last race, but there are some negatives, including the poor quality of the rest of that field and the good trip he had. I would say if he's under 10-1, I'm tossing him but higher than that, I'll use him in my tri tickets.

[chickenhead]

I was thinking a bounce was in order, running a huge race off being sick, but I'm not sure the effort was all that taxing. He came out of it looking pretty well. He may well run slower in the Derby, but I don't think he will "bounce".

Bandini has a better shot at bouncing, he was in a need to win race, and he ran pretty big going wide all the way. Did he run out of his mind, or just reach his potential, and look good running into a fast pace? We will see, but he'll have another pace to run into.

I'm tossing Greeley. He looks thin and immature, his mile work was pretty scary, I think he does nothing.

[Bobby]

He's run fairly consistent figures except the Rebel which is a complete Toss out. If he bounces, it won't be much.

I think he's the favorite Saturday. I still don't know who to bet though.

[Valuist]

The one thing that surprised me about Bandini was with all that speed in the Blue Grass, he wasn't far back. He was up pretty close.

There's some talk that the rail was dead at Keeneland on BG day. I'm not sure I buy that. I'll have to re-check the replays but looking at the charts I thought it was a fairly unbiased, albeit deep, track.

[chickenhead]

I have heard about that bias as well.

That is the thing I like about Bandini, JV should be able to jockey into a fairly good spot a few lengths off, he's got the juice for that. He ran a 112 pace figure last out, Alex top is 103, in a route it's 99. With Alex I think he may end up in a bit of a trouble spot too far back...depends on what they do with him.

The strategy of the early goings and where they settle will be pretty interesting.

[Maxspa]

I believe that if you have followed Afleet Alex's training results at Churchill Downs, you will see he is moving forward off his last race. Besides his training regimen is much different than the normal thoroughbred. The two a days indicate a sound and fit horse. I don't know if he is the best horse in the derby or whether he can run a mile and a quarter but I don't believe he loses because he will bounce off his last race.
Maxspa

[Figman]

Since I know Maxspa is a retired horse trainer, I would put great credence in his observations.

[LemonSoupKid]

The key always is, in this race, the ability to gauge the horses who are fast, and even more importantly, who is still growing and improving. It seems to me that Alex and Bellamy are by far the fastest horses of all, with BR being seemingly a lot faster than all of them. One has to love AA's experience and adaptation to Churchill in these workouts. I know a few of these guys are improving (Bandini and Noble Causeway), but are they really as fast, and are they improving enough to negate any amount AA or BM might improve? I don't think so. I have a funny feeling though that someone is going to get a late kick and might like the added distance + a bad trip for one of those faster horses mentioned. I'm saying that shocker would be Wilko or Sun King.

We'll see how it goes down. Of all the horses there are only a few a good handicapper can even consider, IMO. The winners last time out did it with such ease that the 2nd place finishers don't even jump into my mind, like in past years.

Lemon

[Valuist]

I'm starting to change my mind on Afleet Alex. I see Bellamy Road is 17 hands....just like Point Given, Easy Goer and Risen Star. Those huge horses all overpowered their fields in the Belmont but all 3 lost the Derby. Granted, Risen Star was probably the best horse in the 88 Derby but it took him a bit too long to change gears and get rolling after his wide trip. I consider CD's turns fairly sharp; a smaller more agile horse like AA may have an advantage on Bellamy Road.

[Bobby]

I'm starting to change my mind on Afleet Alex. I see Bellamy Road is 17 hands....just like Point Given, Easy Goer and Risen Star. Those huge horses all overpowered their fields in the Belmont but all 3 lost the Derby. Granted, Risen Star was probably the best horse in the 88 Derby but it took him a bit too long to change gears and get rolling after his wide trip. I consider CD's turns fairly sharp; a smaller more agile horse like AA may have an advantage on Bellamy Road.

yea, Smarty was not anything like ROCK HARD TEN or CLIFFS EDGE. He was much smaller I believe.

[Dr. Carter]

Dont like him. Just a feeling that he will regress and not thrilled with training tactics. Was coughing after his last work (not reported) and looks a little "over the top". Bellamy Road has trained great and is not at all like Point Given in physical appearance. Risen Star got a bad ride in Derby, Easy Goer was much heavier than Bellamy Road. He too may regress but he is training as good as a horse can train.

[Bobby]

Coughing? Not good for my pick.

[Zaf]

Don't think he'll bounce. Last time he bounced was his 2nd start off the winter layoff.

Don't like him , Don't dislike him. Think he'll be in the tri and super for sure.

ZAFONIC

[NoDayJob]

:) Sans scratches, my program picks 12 & 16. :)

NDJ

[how cliche]

Dont like him. Just a feeling that he will regress and not thrilled with training tactics. Was coughing after his last work (not reported) and looks a little "over the top". Bellamy Road has trained great and is not at all like Point Given in physical appearance. Risen Star got a bad ride in Derby, Easy Goer was much heavier than Bellamy Road. He too may regress but he is training as good as a horse can train.

Who's your source for the cough? If you're gonna post items like this it's critical to sight a source.

[Skanoochies]

Two horses with owners from Penn. trained by trainers with their first Derby mounts, ridden by jockeys with their first Derby mounts, winning the Derby two years in a row? I`m superstitious, thats pushing it IMO.

[frankfig]

I feel Afleet Alex will NOT hit the board. A few things point that out to me. Yes i believe he will bounce , plus he will Not like the 1 1/4 mile trip. He will make a good middle move , but i believe he will flatten out turning for home. Of course they will blame the jockey, and he will have A NAME rider on him in 2 weeks.

[garyoz]

He's still developing within a reasonable range compared to his two year old figures. Could bounce slightly off his top or pair it and still be competitive or even win, depending on what happens to Bellamy Road and if anyone else moves forward.

I have never liked Afleet Alex, but think you have to use him in exotics and give him a reasonable shot to win, as much as I hate to say it. There's been alot written over on the thorograph board about Afleet Alex. You might want to check it out.

[PaceAdvantage]

I feel Afleet Alex will NOT hit the board. A few things point that out to me. Yes i believe he will bounce , plus he will Not like the 1 1/4 mile trip. He will make a good middle move , but i believe he will flatten out turning for home. Of course they will blame the jockey, and he will have A NAME rider on him in 2 weeks.

Wow, I feel kinda similar to you, except replace the name Afleet Alex with Bellamy Road. I think Afleet Alex is going to rock and roll on Saturday...big time...

I don't see Bellamy Road getting this trip at all. His late numbers are very weak. Even if he doesn't get pressed early, I can't see it happening with BM.

[mhrussell]

I just finished handicapping the Derby and think there is a great chance that both BR and AA will finish OFF THE BOARD! :eek:

Which may mean...BIG $$$ to be had. :)

[cj]

I don't think AA will bounce, because he didn't run any faster than he ever does.
He is a very consistent horse.

The problem is, his best races aren't near good enough, so out he goes!

[garyoz]

I just finished handicapping the Derby and think there is a great chance that both BR and AA will finish OFF THE BOARD! :eek:

Which may mean...BIG $$$ to be had. :)

I hope alot of people think the same way. A chance to get great value on two standout horses, in AA and BR. I think that Bandini and Noble Causeway are far more likely to be up the track, and it seems like every wise is touting those two. Also longshots are always way overbet in the Derby.

I usually think of Andy Beyer as a contrary indicator, but he may be right that Bellamy Road is this decade's superstar. I always focus on the final figure in the Derby not pace figures. I've lost too many times thinking that a horse would get killed off in the early pace and trying to find late running types (think War Emblem).

[LemonSoupKid]

It's easy to say someone won't finish somewhere ... there are 20 horses. But if you are putting it all out there and saying they will not come in the money, AA and BR, then that is somewhat bold, being that they are by far the fastest of all the horses in the Derby.

I can understand guys making plays for Bandini, but the others? I'm going Afleet Alex, Bellamy Road, and High Fly. These horses have shown they can win and be close. I think High Fly is this year's Peace Rules; a good horse who just doesn't quite have enough. My longshot is Coin Silver

Why should I believe that anyone other than Bandini can even run at'em? All the other guys have lost to my top guys by many lengths and not one prep even had a close second that could edge up. It's far too "hunchy" to think some longshot is going to run huge ... and it's not fair to say "someone" will. Give a name, there are 20 horses ...

Lemon

[Dr. Carter]

My source is me. I was standing at the 5/8ths pole where he was pulling up.

[JustRalph]

My source is me. I was standing at the 5/8ths pole where he was pulling up.

Now that is a source! Really, you were there. How did he look othewise? Washed out.......blowing after the cough?

[Suff]

My source is me. I was standing at the 5/8ths pole where he was pulling up.


Yes... I validate the source as a good one.


I'm using Greater Good and Sort-it Out. Don't know how yet, or where. And I'm not zero'd in how much... But I will have these two on a heap of gimmick bets.

[rokitman]

I don't think AA will bounce, because he didn't run any faster than he ever does.
He is a very consistent horse.

The problem is, his best races aren't near good enough, so out he goes!


I agree. I think AA is the sucker bet of the day. The Derby Shuffle will push him back to whoknowswhere because of his lack of early speed. And he just isn't good enough to overcome the handicap. I'm glad they picked the 12 hole instead of one of the more inside posts because it made it very easy for me to chuck him with confidence. But I don't see anything in his form that says "bounce." And anyway, that's a word that should only be spoken by trainers making excuses!

Ahhh, The First Saturday of May. Or Hay Day, as I call it! :cool:

[toetoe]

P.A. ... Agree AA is too good for these. A shame that De-clawed Moon can't fight it out with him.

Suff ... Don't play those two shots without also putting in Closing Argument. I hate Kiaran's horses all day, EXCEPT for this one.

Must agree that Bellamy Road is an imposing physical specimen. Hate to see SternBummer win it. Hey, who remembers Big Whippendeal, Georgie's horse in early '70's, maybe his first ever?

[Sundown]

I'm going with PA and ToeToe, I've been trying to get away from AA but think he's the deal. I think Alex will be there to pick it up in the stretch. A little worried about the cough and the training regime. Noble Causeway for my LS


Good Luck to all.

[BIG RED]

very small amount of info, but everytime AA hits a 100+ beyer, he comes back lower. Grain of salt.

[46zilzal]

consistenly the best closer in this field...even at two

[Tom]

Pace/speed, he looks good. Class, he looks good. Consoistency, he looks good.
the only question I have is will he run out of DNA at the 8th pole?

[Zaf]

I am only gonna use him in the 2nd and 3rd slots of exactas & tris.

ZAFONIC

[Dr. Carter]

It has now been reported that Afleet Alex was diagnosed with a lung infection after the Derby. I reported this BEFORE the Derby on this very board. Too bad I still didn't make any money on the race.

[kenwoodallpromos]

http://www.cvm.msu.edu/RESEARCH/PULMON/site/respiratory_diseases/diseases/EIPH/mainFrame.html
I remember your post!

[Figman]

Dr. Carter,
I had a cold two years ago in 2003. It was diagnosed as a inflammation within my lungs. Then I was perfectly healthy until this past Christmas time.

I contracted a cold again the last week of 2005. It started in my head and moved to my chest.

What's your diagnosis? Was the infection in my lungs all along?
Be real!

[kenwoodallpromos]

"The colt has won seven of 11 career starts, earned $2,165,800 and cracked the top three in every race but one — even as he was found to have a lung infection after he abruptly faded to sixth in the March 19 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas."
Several equine researchers have connected lung infections to possibly exercise bleeding. Between March and May AA lost the Rebel and KY Derby and stumbled in the Preakness. And had a heavy training schedule. Coincidence? Maybe, Maybe not. Back too early from leg problems after the Belmont? Heck yes!

[Dr. Carter]

Dr. Carter,
I had a cold two years ago in 2003. It was diagnosed as a inflammation within my lungs. Then I was perfectly healthy until this past Christmas time.

I contracted a cold again the last week of 2005. It started in my head and moved to my chest.

What's your diagnosis? Was the infection in my lungs all along?
Be real!


Why do you think the horse was coughing? Too much smoking? TB?

My diagnosis is to have you gelded.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Sounds like my sinuses which can turn into bronchitis- I recommend 500mg vitamin C once a day.
Unless you have been jogging 40 MPH while experiencing extremely high blood pressure- in that case I suggest you have the vet put you on Salix!LOL!! :D

[Buckeye]

Look everyboby (including you jokers) AA should be HOY. Not that he will be. It's become a meaningless award.

[kenwoodallpromos]

HOY means the HOY did pretty well that year, but isn't any kind of award based on votes or opinion meaningless as far as settling the issue unless there is no competition?

[toetoe]

Can we hurry up and have the vote? I'm movin' on.

[Macdiarmadillo]

They already have the results, they just ain't telling. Come on, it's only 3 more days. Aren't odds for this up on Betfair yet?

I hear Jerry Bailey's going to get the Richard Widmark Special Award for complaining about jockey parking spaces being moved to accomodate disabled parking.