Derby Figures

[cj]

My Derby figures are now posted on my site:

http://www.pacefigures.com/dby0507.htm

[Zaf]

That Bellamy Road fig looks huge , but does it have bounce written all over it ?

ZAFONIC

[Skanoochies]

Thanks for sharing them C.J. Class Act. Good luck in your wagers. :ThmbUp:

Skanoochies. :)

[kingfin66]

Your figures confirmed what I had suspected about Greeley's Galaxy. I think I found my key horse. Now if I can just figure out a way to get the whole screen on 1 page when I print them out... Any ideas?

[Buddha]

Now if I can just figure out a way to get the whole screen on 1 page when I print them out... Any ideas?

As in the page is too wide when you print it? I know I use Firefox, it fits the screen onto the page. Makes the print a little smaller, but everything is on one page. Do you use IE or Firefox?

[Speed Figure]

I think cj's pace figure for Greeley's Galaxy is far to high.

[bdhsheets]

Set your printer preferences to landscape mode and you'll be okay, but wind up with more pages.

[bdhsheets]

In IE you need to change your view setting text size to smallest, then the print should fit in landscape mode.

[cj]

I've uploaded a few more printer friendly versions:

http://www.pacefigures.com/dby0507_drf.htm

http://www.pacefigures.com/dby0507C_drf.htm

SpeedFigure,

Why? I'm curious. I'll post exactly how I came up with my numbers when I get home and have the chart in front of me.

[KingChas]

CJ- I don't know if you incorporate the DRF variants into your ratings or not.I've downloaded the DRF derby pps and see they have no variants for any prep race at GP and none for the San Felipe at SA.Any help on a fig(s) would be greatly appreciated -Thank You

[cj]

I don't use the DRF variant at all. I can give you my variants, but they aren't on the same scale as those in the DRF, which I believe are 1 point = 1/5 second, regardless of distance.

[cj]

As for Greeley's Galaxy, I looked over the Hawthorne card again.

Here is what I see for the routes:

4 th, 1m 1/16, Raw Pace:74 , Raw Speed:75
7 th, 1m 1/ 8, Raw Pace:111, Raw Speed:108
10th, 1m 1/16, Raw Pace:64, Raw Speed:69

First, I calculate the final time variant. I project what I expect the winning speed figure to be based on the projection method. I figured around a 75 for the 4th, a 110 for the 7th (based on the 2nd and 3rd place finishers), and a 75 for the last. So I had projections of 0, 2 slow, and 6 slow. With the slow pace of the last race, I know that projection is probably a little off, so I settled on the 2 slow, the median.

Now for the pace variant, I compare the raw pace figures of the winners to the raw speed figures of the winner. So, I had 1 slow, 3 fast, and 5 slow, for an average of 1 slow, which means one slower than the final time variant. So, I have -3 pace (3 slow) and -2 speed (2 slow) variants.

I then subtract these from the raw figures to get 114, 110 for GG. I really think this day was pretty solid, no major questions for me. I think the difference is that I use the winner to calculate my pars and variants, not the leader. It is unusual for most, but I find it a much more consistent method. Had I used the leader for the 4th race, for example, the raw figures would have been 93 - 75, which would really skew the pace variant.

[kingfin66]

Thanks for the figs and the print friendly version CJ. Thanks to others who responded as well.

As far as Greeley's figure goes, I look at it this way. At a big price, the figure is good...

[Valuist]

I think the fig for GG is legit and I've been doing Hawthorne numbers for over 20 years. The only question regarding him is what did he beat (not much) and he had a perfect trip. When War Emblem won the Illinois Derby in 2002, he beat a pretty good horse in Repent, who at the time was considered one of the top Derby prospects.

[depalma13]

War Emblem won his Illinois Derby at Sportsman Park, so I wouldn't compare his numbers to the horses that have won that race since.

[Valuist]

But the thinking is that Greeley's Galaxy beat basically the same horses, quality wise, that War Emblem beat. There was no Repent in this year's field.

[cj]

Repent was injured in that race, right? I know he still ran in the money (2d?), but he didn't race for awhile afterwards.

[tonto1944]

I think Bellamy Road will win the Derby and sweep the triple crown. I think he will be something special.
I am keying Bellamy Road and Greely's Galaxy over Bellamy Road,Greely's Galaxy,Noble Causway,High Fly,Bandini,Wilko,Afleet Alex and Sun King in tri's ex and Super.

I think he will sit 3 or 4th and make his move near the head of the stretch. It would be suiside if he tride to go to the front.:jump: :bang:

[Bubbles]

The Derby isn't the spot for a speedball to be breaking from the 16 hole trying to stalk. My money's on High Fly.

[chickenhead]

Sort It Out - 50-1
Androm. Hero - 50-1
Sun King - 15-1
Noble Causeway - 12-1
Coin Silver - 12-1
High Limit - 12-1
Flower Alley - 20-1
Greater Good - 20-1
Greely - 15-1
Giacomo - 50-1
High Fly - 8-1
Afleet Alex 9-2
Span Chestnut - 50-1
Wilko - 20-1
Bandini - 6-1
Bellamy Road - 5-2
Dont Get Mad - 30-1
Closing Argument - 30-1
Going Wild - 50-1
Buzzards Bay - 20-1

[46zilzal]

Have a question - across the top aftre each colt's name there are designations (?) P, E, E/P and then a number following. Is that this colt's running style and what is the number? MUST be based upon VISUAL POSITIONING.

[cj]

Quirin Speed Points

[46zilzal]

what about the style???

[cj]

Yes, that is the style per BRIS, its included as part of their reports.

[46zilzal]

Yes, that is the style per BRIS, its included as part of their reports.
They certainly have a different definition than the Sartinists do.

[Zaf]

Yeah, the other night I was looking at an E8 horse and this horse came no where close to getting the lead in his last three starts. You certainly can't trust the BRIS / TSN designation.

ZAFONIC

[BillW]

Yeah, the other night I was looking at an E8 horse and this horse came no where close to getting the lead in his last three starts. You certainly can't trust the BRIS / TSN designation.

ZAFONIC

Darrell,

Do you remember which race that was. Just curious as I calculate my own and would have missed it.

Bill

[Zaf]

Hello Bill,


It was MNR Tuesday Night Race.

#6 Horse Jet Legacy designated E8

Horse did not make the lead at the first call in any of his last 10 starts :eek:

In fact in 9 of his last 10 he sat 4th or worse at the 1st Call

In 6 of his last 10 starts he sat 8th of worse at the first call.

E8 :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

D

[BillW]

I had him as a NA-5. 2 points in the last ( a point for 1st, 2nd, or 3rd at first call and a point for being within 3 lengths of the lead) and 2 points for the 3rd back (a point for being within 6 lengths of the lead and a point for being within 3 lengths of the lead) The horse also qualifies to retain the initially assigned point. TSN had him as an E8. which are you using? TSN or Bris?

Bill

[Zaf]

Bill,

TSN.

ZAFONIC

[Tote Master]

Bubbles
The Derby isn't the spot for a speedball to be breaking from the 16 hole trying to stalk. My money's on High Fly. I like your choice for a solid money shot as well, but didn’t a horse named Foolish Pleasure break from the 15 hole (or further out) and still bring home the roses? The hype that year was that not many Derby entries break from that far out and win. It seems the important thing to me is that the pace setters get a good position going into the first turn. Especially in a huge field.

Best of Luck

[Tom]

I've uploaded a few more printer friendly versions:

http://www.pacefigures.com/dby0507_drf.htm

http://www.pacefigures.com/dby0507C_drf.htm



CJ, the first version...is that output possible thorugh the program? That one is perfect!
Q?..the 5th number - is that the horse's late pace of the race?

Thanks...good luck on the Derby...I'll make a Mint Julep for ya ( and drink it for ya, too!):D

[BeatTheChalk]

I mostly blow
and i am not very keen
but i know what i know
if .. you know what I mean.....which actually begs the question...

How DO I USE THE RATINGS > :) thanks ..

[cj]

CJ, the first version...is that output possible thorugh the program? That one is perfect!
Q?..the 5th number - is that the horse's late pace of the race?

Thanks...good luck on the Derby...I'll make a Mint Julep for ya ( and drink it for ya, too!):D

Tom,

Yes, and yes. I had a mint julep at the Derby Real Quiet won (my wife bet him, I bet some loser), I don't want another one...EVER!

[JustMissed]

I mostly blow
and i am not very keen
but i know what i know
if .. you know what I mean.....which actually begs the question...

How DO I USE THE RATINGS > :) thanks ..


aren't CJ's figures and ratings used just like anyone else's figures i.e. Bris, TSN, Beyer? Of course you gotta know a PA member's figures are far superior to others but that is the subject of another thread! :)

The only observation that I would make is that CJ's Performance Ratings are given for each running line--whereas a Bris/TSN Prime Power Rating is an overall figure at a given point of time and is actually a "moving average" type rating.

I found the Bris library and the Allways site to be an excellant places to learn how to use pace figures as well as prime power ratings and should be equally valid for CJ's figs except for perhaps lenghts per points.

JM

[cj]

How DO I USE THE RATINGS > :) thanks ..

Sorry, I missed this in the morning, still half asleep. There is a lot of stuff on my site about the numbers that can probably help answer your questions. They are pace and speed numbers just like anyone else's, just a little better I hope. And the last number for each running line is an overall rating for that race.

[kenwoodallpromos]

CJ- you showed the winner as having the best ROI!