DerbyTrail
05-01-2005, 06:55 AM
From Derby Trail: http://www.groups.yahoo.com/group/derbytrail
With Don't Get Mad's impressive victory in Saturday's Derby Trial, and with a total of 21 horses intended for the Derby, owner B. Wayne Hughes now has the option of starting him or Greeley's Galaxy. Should any horse now demure from the potential starting grid, Hughes could run both.
The off the pace running son of Stephen Got Even inhaled Vicarage midstretch in the Trial, and stopped the timer in 1:36 for the one turn mile. Don't Get Mad, who is now 3 for 3 at Churchil Downs in his career, established that he is one horse that doesn't prefer the surface at Santa Anita and also may have confirmed that he is better off running in one turn routes.
His possible inclussion in the Derby helps us finalize how the 131st edition of the grand event will play out on May 7. To that end, let us now focus on a possible pace scenario for the race by examining the likely running order through the second call (6f) based on the typical position of the field in their past performances:
1:10.1 Bellamy Road
1:10.2 Spanish Chestnut
1:10.3 Going Wild
1:10.0-1:11.0 High Fly (tactical speed)
1:10.2-1:11.2 Wilko (tactical speed)
1:10.0-1:12.0 Giacomo (tactical speed)
1:10.0-1:12.0 Consolidator (tactical speed)
1:10.2-1:12.4 High Limit (tactical speed)
1:11.0 Buzzards Bay
1:11.1 Bandini
1:11.1 Closing Argument
1:11.1 Don't Get Mad
1:11.2 Afleet Alex
1:11.3 Greeley's Galaxy
1:11.3 Sun King
1:11.4 Sort It Out
1:11.0-1:12.0 Noble Causeway (tactical, but less speedy)
1:12.0 Coin Silver
1:12.1 Flower Alley
1:12.2 Andromeda's Hero
1:13.0 Greater Good
While much is being made of Spanish Chestnut's likely inclusion in the Derby as a 'rabbit' for Bandini, (to confront and soften up Bellamy Road), Derby Trailer "The Kid" points out that his front running may have the opposite effect of slowing the Derby pace.
If Javy Castellano gets Bellamy Road to settle comfortably behind Spanish Chestnut in the early going, it is likely that none of the other alleged speeds in the race will go out after Biancone's one dimensional runner either. The focus of the jockeys on the other front end style runners will be Bellamy Road, and it is nearly certain that none, with the exception perhaps of Going Wild, will move to challenge Bellamy until Castellano says go on the runaway Wood winner.
Jerry Bailey on High Fly, Ramon Dominguez on High Limit and Raffy Bejarano on Consolidator would all appear likely to comprise that group of near the lead runners that will shadow Bellamy Road. Behind that lead group, expect the front part of the "1:11" group to draft, while Corey Nakatani (Wilko) and Mike Smith (Giacomo) choose whatever option for position they care to with their multi-paced mounts. The rest of the mid-pack runners will follow.
When Spanish Chestnut and potentially Going Wild, stop after three quarters, the Derby will begin to be run in earnest. And there will only be a half mile left to run.. Breaking the race into 6 and 4f segments is a tool of pace handicappers, and the reason that so many people concentrate on the "come home" times of runners during the prep campaign. If we assume that the running order listed above may be accurate, who among that group can game themselves to the wire fastest?
This is where the bulk of the Derby field begins to raise its horry head and the off the pace runners begin to face obstacles. Certainly several entrants among the 20 will have lost prefered position in the first half of the race or used extra energy to establish position from disadvantaged starting slots inside or far outside.
In addition, horses in the second half of the field will now have to avoid the early runners that will be "moving backwards" through the field at the end of the backstretch and through the second turn. This is another reason why the three or four leaders that take the field into the 1,234 feet of Churchill's home stretch annually comprise the Derby exacta at the least and three positions in the Superfecta typically.
Should the pace scenario evolve as suggested, it is hard to believe that Bellamy Road or High Fly will not have struck the lead between the half mile and eighth poles. Simultaneously, pace pressers Wilko and Giacomo and stalkers Afleet Alex, Bandini, Sun King and Noble Causeway will be mounting rallies, while the closers just begin to find their best strides.
The horses that provide mystery are Consolidator, High Limit, Buzzards Bay, Closing Argument and Greeley's Galaxy. These five have demonstrated preference for the lead in their successful races. Here they are faced with an early pace that could invite early moves depending on their positioning through the initial stages of the race. If they go, when they go, and how long they can last, are the issues with which the individual handicapper must grapple.
We'll discus how the race closes out later in the week once entries are drawn and post position offers up its clues. But for now, we will split the field in half, believing horses from the following running style groups offer the best likelihood to comprise the superfecta's top four slots.
ON:
Bellamy Road
High Fly
NEAR:
Buzzards Bay
Wilko
PRESSERS:
Giacomo
Bandini
STALKERS:
Afleet Alex
Noble Causeway
CLOSERS:
Flower Alley
Andromeda's Hero
More from Louisville!
Steve
With Don't Get Mad's impressive victory in Saturday's Derby Trial, and with a total of 21 horses intended for the Derby, owner B. Wayne Hughes now has the option of starting him or Greeley's Galaxy. Should any horse now demure from the potential starting grid, Hughes could run both.
The off the pace running son of Stephen Got Even inhaled Vicarage midstretch in the Trial, and stopped the timer in 1:36 for the one turn mile. Don't Get Mad, who is now 3 for 3 at Churchil Downs in his career, established that he is one horse that doesn't prefer the surface at Santa Anita and also may have confirmed that he is better off running in one turn routes.
His possible inclussion in the Derby helps us finalize how the 131st edition of the grand event will play out on May 7. To that end, let us now focus on a possible pace scenario for the race by examining the likely running order through the second call (6f) based on the typical position of the field in their past performances:
1:10.1 Bellamy Road
1:10.2 Spanish Chestnut
1:10.3 Going Wild
1:10.0-1:11.0 High Fly (tactical speed)
1:10.2-1:11.2 Wilko (tactical speed)
1:10.0-1:12.0 Giacomo (tactical speed)
1:10.0-1:12.0 Consolidator (tactical speed)
1:10.2-1:12.4 High Limit (tactical speed)
1:11.0 Buzzards Bay
1:11.1 Bandini
1:11.1 Closing Argument
1:11.1 Don't Get Mad
1:11.2 Afleet Alex
1:11.3 Greeley's Galaxy
1:11.3 Sun King
1:11.4 Sort It Out
1:11.0-1:12.0 Noble Causeway (tactical, but less speedy)
1:12.0 Coin Silver
1:12.1 Flower Alley
1:12.2 Andromeda's Hero
1:13.0 Greater Good
While much is being made of Spanish Chestnut's likely inclusion in the Derby as a 'rabbit' for Bandini, (to confront and soften up Bellamy Road), Derby Trailer "The Kid" points out that his front running may have the opposite effect of slowing the Derby pace.
If Javy Castellano gets Bellamy Road to settle comfortably behind Spanish Chestnut in the early going, it is likely that none of the other alleged speeds in the race will go out after Biancone's one dimensional runner either. The focus of the jockeys on the other front end style runners will be Bellamy Road, and it is nearly certain that none, with the exception perhaps of Going Wild, will move to challenge Bellamy until Castellano says go on the runaway Wood winner.
Jerry Bailey on High Fly, Ramon Dominguez on High Limit and Raffy Bejarano on Consolidator would all appear likely to comprise that group of near the lead runners that will shadow Bellamy Road. Behind that lead group, expect the front part of the "1:11" group to draft, while Corey Nakatani (Wilko) and Mike Smith (Giacomo) choose whatever option for position they care to with their multi-paced mounts. The rest of the mid-pack runners will follow.
When Spanish Chestnut and potentially Going Wild, stop after three quarters, the Derby will begin to be run in earnest. And there will only be a half mile left to run.. Breaking the race into 6 and 4f segments is a tool of pace handicappers, and the reason that so many people concentrate on the "come home" times of runners during the prep campaign. If we assume that the running order listed above may be accurate, who among that group can game themselves to the wire fastest?
This is where the bulk of the Derby field begins to raise its horry head and the off the pace runners begin to face obstacles. Certainly several entrants among the 20 will have lost prefered position in the first half of the race or used extra energy to establish position from disadvantaged starting slots inside or far outside.
In addition, horses in the second half of the field will now have to avoid the early runners that will be "moving backwards" through the field at the end of the backstretch and through the second turn. This is another reason why the three or four leaders that take the field into the 1,234 feet of Churchill's home stretch annually comprise the Derby exacta at the least and three positions in the Superfecta typically.
Should the pace scenario evolve as suggested, it is hard to believe that Bellamy Road or High Fly will not have struck the lead between the half mile and eighth poles. Simultaneously, pace pressers Wilko and Giacomo and stalkers Afleet Alex, Bandini, Sun King and Noble Causeway will be mounting rallies, while the closers just begin to find their best strides.
The horses that provide mystery are Consolidator, High Limit, Buzzards Bay, Closing Argument and Greeley's Galaxy. These five have demonstrated preference for the lead in their successful races. Here they are faced with an early pace that could invite early moves depending on their positioning through the initial stages of the race. If they go, when they go, and how long they can last, are the issues with which the individual handicapper must grapple.
We'll discus how the race closes out later in the week once entries are drawn and post position offers up its clues. But for now, we will split the field in half, believing horses from the following running style groups offer the best likelihood to comprise the superfecta's top four slots.
ON:
Bellamy Road
High Fly
NEAR:
Buzzards Bay
Wilko
PRESSERS:
Giacomo
Bandini
STALKERS:
Afleet Alex
Noble Causeway
CLOSERS:
Flower Alley
Andromeda's Hero
More from Louisville!
Steve