BEATEN FAVORITES..ANY SUGGESTIONS

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

A great deal has been written and discussed concerning the pros and cons about investing on horses who were beaten favorites in a recent race(perhaps the last and/or second to last race).

How do you analyze this beaten favorite factor? Insignificant or a possible edge wager when certain situations exist?

[kenwoodallpromos]

When any horse gets beat look for the reason- I say there is always a reason whether it is detectable or not. With beaten favorites the only thing I do different is look harder to see if the horse was tired, overworked, or racing back too soon.
I look mostly for a bad or unusually slow start; not running straight; fading badly just past the 4f mark; too many races in the last 2 months (may be skipping regular pattern of works in order to get into an extra race); working or running longer distances recently; or racing back within 3 weeks, especially if at the same track as last time.
If the horse seemed on paper to have any of the above, I demand at least 30 days since beaten- up to 45 days is even better- but any more thean 45 days and I suspect a physical problem especially if the horse has not worked in the 3 weeks after it got beat.
Of course, you can increase everything I said above as to time periods by more, like maybe 50% more, for stakes horses.
If a 5 and up horse, their usual workout pattern may not be as intense as for younger horses.
Tom McSchell might be a good person to ask about this also.
Anytime you have a form or use online pp's you may want to notice what training patterns are used by various trainers and also what kind of training/racing patterns work best for individual horses and horses generally by age, sex, race level, and maybe at slower tracks and tracks during bad weather.

[NoDayJob]

A great deal has been written and discussed concerning the pros and cons about investing on horses who were beaten favorites in a recent race(perhaps the last and/or second to last race).

How do you analyze this beaten favorite factor? Insignificant or a possible edge wager when certain situations exist?

I would avoid playing last race beaten favorites that are dropping in class.

NDJ

[Overlay]

I place more importance on the overall quality of recent races, and on how the horse compares to the field it's facing today. I don't upgrade or downgrade a horse automatically just for having been a beaten favorite in either of its last two races.

[hurrikane]

IMO you have to remember a few things about racing...and pertaining to favs

1. 66% of favs lose. It is not possible to bet blindly any horse based on that stat. The only thing you know for sure is 'the public was wrong about this horse the last time it ran. That is all you really know.

2. Do not under any circumstances. ever, in racing or in life, believe any laundry list of voodoo bs that anyone gives you without some very specific stats to back it up. And then act cautiously.

3. The most important question you can ask is why. Just remeber that 80% of the time you won't get a meaningful answer.


2 cents please.

[Kreed]

NDJ ... that was a gem, and said just right, with no Extra Words needed.
Yeah, I see the logic of your advice.

[Valuist]

I think in some ways you can view a horse like a stock. If you see in the horse's last 10 pps that they've been a beaten favorite 4 times and the only win showing was at 6-5, that's the equivalent of an overpriced stock. Play against them.

[kenwoodallpromos]

In other words, Hurrikane is telling you what I do is full of bullshit and not to believe anything I tell you. It is all voodoo.
There. You have been warned by me, with a heads up from the biggest stalker of my posts on the PA forum.
You are welcome to ignore any or all of my posts that you like.
And please let me know if you ever see me telling other people they should do something without paper testing!
I am not on this forum to get called names but to give and take ideas. Anyone is welcome to use the forum search button to check my various selection ROI.
You may also ignore my advice to refrain from betting on the KY Derby this year if you like, won't affect my pocketbook either way.
Some people like very simple answers as to how to bet the horses- and they usually lose because they use similar methods to handicap all races. :lol: :D :sleeping:

[kenwoodallpromos]

"Just remeber that 80% of the time you won't get a meaningful answer."
Gee, youi even have stats to back that up! I think you were backfitting that one! LOL!
I guess we should only believe YOU because you give stats- But your whole post was off-topic because you never answered the question!