Number of Derby Winners In Stretch Duel

[Topcat]

I thought I read somewhere that the percentage of Derby
winners that had a stretch duel in their final prep race
was in excess of 85%.

Does anyone have that at hand? Or know where I saw it?

Thank you

TC

[Topcat]

This isn't exactly it but here is a post from the Thorograph board http://thorograph.com/

that addresses the same thing:

Below is a list of the most recent 20 Derby winners. With only a few exceptions, these horses, not surprisingly, all put in strong stretch runs in their final Derby preps. Only a couple of them were passed by another horse in the stretch and in those cases, unusual pace scenarios or track conditions were an important factor. For example, Silver Charm was nosed out in a thrilling stretch run but only after he uncharacteristically got caught up in a speed duel (he typically stalked the early pace) but, despite going 45 flat and 1:09 flat early, he tenaciously dug in during the final 16th after being headed in mid stretch and still won over many new backers even in defeat. In many cases, the eventual Derby winner did not win its final Derby prep but instead chased home one or more front runners through the stretch but then managed to turn the tables on those same horses given the added distance and pace pressure in the Derby. A look at the second place finishers in the Derby reveals a very similar pattern.

I would think twice before betting on a horse that did not put in a strong stretch run in its final Derby prep, particularly, if it was passed by other horses in the stretch. This is one reason I would be reluctant to play RFP or Blue Burner even at long odds. Once again, this is just one of many factors I consider when handicapping the Derby.

One final note: notice that all of these horses (except for Spend A Buck), also not surprisingly, ran their final Derby preps in either the Wood, SA Derby, Blue Grass, Aks Derby, or Lexington. Of course, training methods, the spacing of traditional Derby preps / the addition of several new preps, and shipping options have changed a lot in recent years but this last factor is also probably still worth taking into consideration.

Chris


*****
Most Recent 20 Derby Winners:

Monarchos (chased Congaree in Wood)

Fusaichi Pegasus (drew off in Wood)

Charismatic (drew off in Lex)

Real Quiet (chased Indian Charlie in SA Derby)

Silver Charm (sizzled early, dug-in late, nosed out in SA Derby)

Grindstone (closed furiously but fell a nose short in Aks Derby)

Thunder Gulch (pressed dawdling pace in BG and failed to cut into
lead)

Go for Gin (chased Irgun in Wood)

Sea Hero (pressed dawdling pace in BG and failed to cut into lead)

Lil E. Tee (chased Pine Bluff in the Aks Dby)

Strike The Gold (drew off in BG)

Unbridled (chased Summer Squall in BG)

Sunday Silence (drew off in SA Derby)

Winning Colors (drew off in SA Derby)

Alysheba (closed to win but was DQ’d in BG)

Ferdinand (chased in SA Derby )

Spend A Buck (ran away and hid in Garden State Derby)

Swale (Chased He Is A Great Deal in the slop in Lex)

Sunny's Halo (ran away and hid in Aks Derby)

Gato Del Sol (chased Linkage in BG)

[superfecta]

Originally posted by Topcat
I thought I read somewhere that the percentage of Derby
winners that had a stretch duel in their final prep race
was in excess of 85%.

Does anyone have that at hand? Or know where I saw it?

Thank you

TC Look in the Triple Crown issue of American Turf Monthly.Gives alot of info on trends of Derby winners,and addresses that angle.