Derby Spin Doctors

[OTM Al]

Here's the one stop shopping stop for trainer spin as we head into the Derby. I will start up with this delightful tidbit from D. Wayne himself

Lukas said Consolidator's fifth-place finish in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) is not indicative of the colt's ability that the Derby prep race is a "throwout for everybody -- Consolidator, Sun King" and even winner Bandini.

"I don't think the Blue Grass ever equates to anything," Lukas said. "You see horses all the time who do well in the Blue Grass, or even in the third or fourth race on the card, come over here and you can't find them. And then you see some horses run bad (at Keeneland) and come over here and win. I don't put any stock in the Blue Grass. It's a great race, a nice purse, and a fun day, but let's leave it at that."

Translation: "I didn't win so it doesn't really count"

Here's the whole story
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=27818

[andicap]

C'mon, Al, look at the facts before slamming someone. (Tho I know you meant it somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but Lukas has been such a lightning road for criticism the last thing he needs is even more abuse, even kiddingly, when it is NOT warranted.)

Took me less than 5 minutes to run a Google of "Blue Grass Stakes" and "winners" to find this Lexington Herald--Leader article.


http://www.kentucky.com/mld/kentucky/sports/columnists/john_clay/11415593.htm

Check out how winners of the Blue Grass have done in the Derby. In a word, fair to middling. Several came back to run in the money but no BG winners have copped the Roses since 1991.

Derby winners have generally not even run in the Blue Grass so it's a murky issue, but also-rans Thunder Gulch and Sea Hero paid big balloons in the Derby. It's not a bad idea to look at horses with good back races who threw in clunkers at Keeneland to see if they could rebound or run back to their peaks -- at high odds of course.

I think D. Wayne was right this time -- although yes, I do think he was also spinning out of his shoes. What's he gonna say, "My horse has no chance?"

[OTM Al]

Looks to me that winners of the Bluegrass have done pretty well in the Derby and the other way around as well. Also, I'm no D. Wayne hater at all. Don't really feel one way or another about him to tell the truth. He just happened to have the spin quote for the day. All will be skewered before racing journalism's silly season is over.

[Bobby]

No question D Wayne is one of the biggest "spin" doctors.

[chrisg]

I don't even see why you put this up; I don't recall Lukas ever saying the Bluegrass was important to him.

Recently someone on this board posted that Lukas has always pointed to the Bluegrass...what a bunch of crap.

Apparently, a few of you are doing the only spinning.

[OTM Al]

Chris, take it easy. This is meant to be a humorous look at the deluge of trainer/owner quotes in the 2 weeks before the derby. It is as I said before silly season. Sit back and have a chuckle at some of the madness.

[chrisg]

No ill will intended towards you OTM Al. I must of put more tone in that than I thought.

:) :)

[depalma13]

If no horse has won the derby off of the Blue Grass in 13 years, then why send your horse to the Blue Grass in the first place? Shouldn't he have left him in California? I don't think Lucas went to Keeneland specifically to lose by 13 lengths, and he sure didn't want to win because he knows that would have jinxed him for Kentucky.

Consolidator is another in the long line of Storm Cat's that are impressive up to a mile and a sixteenth or a mile and an eighth, then disappear as the races gets longer.

[JustRalph]

They used to say

" A gelding will never win the Kentucky Derby"

I don't think it has a damn thing to do with the Blue Grass. I think it has to do more with who the connections are and why they went that route. And that changes from year to year. So I don't put much stock in these kind of comments. You can prove anything you want with the numbers........if you look long enough.

But, I still think there is something goofy about the Keeneland surface

[chrisg]

I don't see why it matters if he sends a horse to the Bluegrass or not...could be a million reasons why he does. I'm not one of his owners. All I need to do is figure out if the horse is playable or not. That's why I don't get why there's so much discussion about these things; like jockeys...give me a break :D

Jockeys; another wonderful piece of information to aid the track in funneling your $ to them.

Peace & have a good one,
ChrisG

:p :) :D :)

[toetoe]

Agree with DePalma. Run in the Blue Grass, lose in the Blue Grass, talk down the Blue Grass. Just another Gr. 1 prep?

p.s. 'Sisters' was your best work ever, DePalma. One of my faves of all times.

[kev]

There's only been two horses from 1997 to 2004 derby that were out of STORM CAT, HIGH YIELD and CAT THIEF who ran 3rd in the derby and won the BC.C. From the 2004 american racing manual these are the horses that have earned $1 million or more out of STORM CAT. CAT THIEF,GIANT'S CAUSEWAY,TABASCO CAT,SHARP CAT,MOUNTAIN CAT,RAGING FEVER,HIGH YIELD, AND VISION AND VERSE.

[chrisg]

Agree with DePalma. Run in the Blue Grass, lose in the Blue Grass, talk down the Blue Grass. Just another Gr. 1 prep?

:D :D :D
LMAO!

And he talked up the BlueGrass beforehand?

Keep :bang: :bang: :bang:
:lol:

You guys keep me young... :D

[depalma13]

There's only been two horses from 1997 to 2004 derby that were out of STORM CAT, HIGH YIELD and CAT THIEF who ran 3rd in the derby and won the BC.C. From the 2004 american racing manual these are the horses that have earned $1 million or more out of STORM CAT. CAT THIEF,GIANT'S CAUSEWAY,TABASCO CAT,SHARP CAT,MOUNTAIN CAT,RAGING FEVER,HIGH YIELD, AND VISION AND VERSE.

You're right, because most disappear before they ever get to the Triple Crown races. I think he only has three horses that have won at the American Classic distance on dirt. The aptly named Cat Thief, Tabasco Cat and Storm Flag Flying. Giant's Causaway did come in a very close second and Vision and Verse was a 1/2 length back in the Belmont. Half of those performances occured on the same track.

Consolidator just looks like another that looks super at a mile and a sixteenth, then flops when he goes longer and all of a sudden it's the (insert any excuse here) fault, rather than looking at the horse itself.

[depalma13]

:D :D :D
LMAO!

And he talked up the BlueGrass beforehand?

Keep :bang: :bang: :bang:
:lol:

You guys keep me young... :D

He certainly made a point to send his horse to the Blue Grass when he had a much easier prep in California. According to Lucas, based on his win over the Keeneland surface as a two year-old and the race being three weeks before the derby, not four, made the Blue Grass the obvious choice for Consolidator. That may not be talking it up, but it sure looks like he was quite happy sending his horse there. When his horse ran up the track, now it wasn't such a great idea.

[OTM Al]

Today's Spin Powered by Dodge (Gr 1)

Today Nick Zito had two of his 5 derby hopefuls out on the track (hey, if you've got 5 you're doing pretty darn good) Let's go to the tape....

The trainer said the colt appeared "mad" following a fourth-place finish in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I). "Sometimes things don't go your way and it certainly wasn't Sun King's fault," Zito said of the Blue Grass outcome. "We always thought he was mad after the Blue Grass. For instance, he was attacking his hay, just grabbing his hay, like he was so mad..."

Translation: The horse blamed the hay. The trainer agrees with the horse....seriously though, sounds like Sun King don't like the wet at all.

Of Andromeda's Hero, Zito said the Fusaichi Pegasus colt "worked extremely well because all I wanted was the last part. He's a horse that looks like he's getting better. He's a horse that definitely looks like he can get the trip..."

Translation: He'll make it to the finish line, but he's slow

[TOOZ]

I heard he wanted to try the horse off the pace, it didn't work, so now he knows. What is wrong with that? The guy still knows what he is doing.

[OTM Al]

Whooops my bad. That race was dry.....tooo many preps to keep track of. Guess SK just was mad about having to look at too much horse hinie.

[toetoe]

(Following spoken in best Fat Albert voice.) "Hay, hay hay!"

[bentoutofshape]

fellas no one mentioned the fact that consolidator was taken off the pace
on jockeys orders from d.w he said it live .It was a perfect race to try something different and not go over the top.his style is stay within a few lengths of the leaders and pounce.d.w has him under wraps .he will be there
at the finish 1st or 2nd @ a price.
bellamy who??????????????? affleet alex as soon as you make your run at me
now u see me now you dont .......my only worry comes from sun king.
consolidator and sun king out class these by far and were both well preped.
and come on people this is no blockbuster field this year I think most would agree.good luck to u all i going after the super duper $100,000.00 I feel its going to be huge.

[toetoe]

If Sun King is your only worry, nothing else matters, man. Sun King, right? Is there a Sun King (Arg.) in the field?

[OTM Al]

Today seems relatively spin-less so instead, hears one of the more accurate things you will hear this week from a guy who knows....

"The question about all these horses is whether they can go a mile and a quarter," (Angel) Cordero said. "But we don't breed horses to go a mile and a quarter. We breed horses to go a mile. You never know which ones will get a mile and a quarter. There have been some good horses who did not win the Derby and there have been some horses who won the Derby that you never heard from again."

Translation: Truth.

[OTM Al]

Well, I guess I just didn't wait long enough for today's spin.....

"Number one, it's the Kentucky Derby," Biancone said. "Number two, the horse is qualified to run on his own merits. He hated the ground at Turfway and his race in the Blue Grass wasn't that bad. And number three, he will only run if I find him in great form. I want to see how he moves over the track. When I ran Lion Heart last year, everyone said he couldn't stay a mile and a quarter."

"We're not hiding anything," Biancone said. "Everyone knows my horse is going to the front. He's a fast, tough horse with plenty of seasoning, and you don't need to be the best horse, only the best horse on May 7. It's like the cat and the rat. Sometimes the cat wins and sometimes the rat wins."

When asked which one Spanish Chestnut was – the cat or the rat -- Biancone replied, "I'll have to think about that one."

Story: http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=27864

Translation: Make up your own...the cat and rat thing has my head spinning...so to speak.

[JPinMaryland]

I think it depends...If the cat is 3-1 and the rat is 5-2..

[chrisg]

Don't Get Mad to run in the Derby Trial off Lasix ...my spin...is that like having sex to save the friendship?

[Haven't watched Seinfeld in years, but that stuck w/me...]

:cool:

:D :D

[NoDayJob]

:lol: 6ull$h!t :lol:

NDJ

[OTM Al]

Today we present anti-spin, care of Todd Pletcher....

Pletcher also addressed Bandini's performance in the Blue Grass Stakes and some people's contention that Spanish Chestnut acted as a rabbit, setting it up the race perfectly for the son of Fusaichi Pegasus.

"Bandini doesn't necessarily need a rabbit," Pletcher claimed. "Patrick Biancone trains Spanish Chestnut, and if he decides to run him in the Derby, then that's what they're going to do. The horse's last two races haven't been great, but prior to that, he was one of the leading candidates on the West Coast. So, if you look at it that way, he's got every much a right to be in there as Going Wild or some of the other horses whose last couple of races haven't been good. Everybody made a big deal after the Blue Grass,'Oh Bandini didn't run as good as everybody said because Spanish Chestnut was in there as a rabbit.' Well, he was a rabbit for the whole field. He cleared the field. High Limit got a perfect stalking trip right off of him, which they said before the race they wanted to do, and had absolutely no excuse. We were parked three wide on both turns and ran by everybody and now they're saying, 'Oh, the Blue Grass wasn't a good race, Keeneland's a bad racetrack, and I didn't want to win the Blue Grass anyway.' Geez. There have been a lot of horses that haven't necessarily won the Blue Grass that come back to win the Derby, but I wouldn't think too many of them were beaten double-digit lengths."

Pletcher also talked about how he thought the Derby would be run in general.

"I think Bellamy Road, Spanish Chestnut if he goes (will be in front), and Consolidator is going to want to be part of the pace," the trainer said. "I think you're going to see a low :46 half – a :46.18.

Translation: I won and you didn't Nick, so there.....

Story: http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=27881

[OTM Al]

Well, he's going to have at least 25% of the field, so we should expect that he produces at least 25% of the quotes....take it away Nick Zito....

"There's been so much talk about he (Bellamy Road) won't rate or this or that, so at least this last work, and the work before, at least shows us some indication that maybe he will. I think he will. If you watched the work, he sure looks like it. But you never know when the gates open up. Racing is different."

Translation: If he goes to the lead its not my fault.

Story: http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=27898

[OTM Al]

Not much spin today. Seems those that took their contenders out today are playing pretty low key. Only thing close is Bob Baffert's comments on admitted long shot Sort It Out....

"He's really moved forward a lot since he's gotten to Kentucky," Baffert said. "He looks much better. Some horses just do that when they come here. They start turning the corner and blossoming and that's what he's doing right now. He's really going to have to blossom in the next five days to keep up with those other heavy hitters. At least he looks like he has a chance to get a piece of the pie."

But as he points out...

"It's one of those things where you have 20 horses and somebody has to fill the gates," he said. "So we're in there and you can't win it unless you're in it."

Translation: What the hey...ya never know unless you try.

Story: http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=27914

[TOOZ]

Holthus on Greater Good in the Arkansas Derby (never heard this excuse, a first for me).

"He was standing right in front of the tote board and every time the odds change on that board there is loud clicking. I think it bothered him a lot," Holthus said, adding that Greater Good was not as close to the tote board in his previous stakes starts at Oaklawn.

[OTM Al]

Alright! TOOZ found the best spin yet! Why I'm not giving Greater Good any real chance in this thing is the poor horse was scared to death when he had to saddle in the infield at Oaklawn....ain't going to get much better Saturday is it?

[OTM Al]

My spinf for the day once again focuses on Nick Zito...sorry Nick, guess the media still loves you and can't wait for your next pronouncement

Zito is still at a loss to explain Sun King’s Blue Grass performance.

"I don't think you can throw any race out," he said. "Throw the situation out. It wasn't his day. "

Translation: The sun don't shine on the same dog's ass every day...or something of the sort....

Spin Bluegrass count
Throw out the race 1 (Lukas)
Don't throw out the race, just the situation 1 (Zito)
I won 1 (Pletcher)

I'd give the tie to Pletcher.....

Story: http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/todaysnews/newsview.asp?recno=54479&subsec=2

[46zilzal]

Q: Why did your colt run so poorly?
A: I don't know.

[JPinMaryland]

No, I think what Zito said makes a great deal of sense. If you throw out an entire race, you throw out every date pt. in it. Every horse's performance, the condition of the track, the pace of the race, etc. None of it would offer any clues to predicting the next race.

NOw take the alternative, what Zito is saying. The pace scenario well maybe some clues there can be used to evaluate the horse that won. And maybe horse 2 and 3 ran about the same time they always do. And the muddy condition of the track probably did have a bad effect on horse 4, and maybe horse 5, who ran better than ever, is a good mudder.

But horse, 6, Sun King. We just dont know what the hell happened.

This way you might still be able to use 90% of what happened there as useful info for the next race. The Sun King data, we just have no idea.

My own personal feeling on Sun King is this. HOrses in general seem to take a 2 or 3 races to reach peak form; and they may stay in peak form for 2, 3 or 4 races. This is over the course of a season, say 6 races in 4 months.

One of the greatest seasons of all time, was Buckpasser's 1966 season. And you can see this sort of pattern, NOw he stayed in top form for maybe 8 races, and I think he ran about 10 races that year. Even in his first couple races he was still better than anyone else...

Well my feeling on Sun King is he's probably peaked. That's all.

[OTM Al]

It may not exactly be spin, but its certainly the quote of the day....First the background

High Limit blew out a half-mile this morning, and his trainer Bobby Frankel, nearly blew out the colt's rider. There's nothing like a little drama to spice up a slow Wednesday morning on the backstretch, and Frankel provided today's entertainment by coming oh so close to switching riders at the last minute.

Frankel spent a good portion of the morning showing visitors an article from the Louisville Courier-Journal, in which High Limit's rider, Ramon Dominguez, was quoted that he wasn't sure if the colt had the necessary experience to handle top-level competition.

Well, after doing some checking, Booby F. elected to stay with the wayward jock, but had this priceless nugget to say

"We're stayin' with (Ramon)," Frankel said after hanging up. "(The reporter) said Ramon didn't sound as if he wasn't confident. Maybe he'll learn a lesson: don't talk to the press."

Translation: Jockeys shouldn't talk to the press unless they know their cliches. (To understand how the athlete should properly talk to the press, see Bull Durham) Oh, and thank God the horse can't talk.

Story: http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=27986