Dosage Total Points - as a tool for predicting the Derby winner

[BeatTheChalk]

I went back for years and years. The LOWEST total I found was 16. So
if you are interested in this .. you may want to check AFLEET ALEX and one
other horse I think. Here is the url .. Showing all of the winners, place and
show .. for the Derby going back. Most of the winners had 18 points and
over.

http://www.chef-de-race.com/classic_winners/triple_crown_races/classic_pedigrees.htm

The one thing that troubled me .. was the incredible number of years that have gone by. I can recall where I was when each Derby was Run. Amen

[Pace Cap'n]

How many points for Alex?

[Bruddah]

is 14 points. (5-0-9-0-0)

[OTM Al]

The one thing that I think will make that ok though is the fact that he has 9 points on the Classic rating. Many of these horses that have had low totals in the past, as well as now, tend to have their few points bunched in the Brilliant and Intermediate catagories ie their pedigree says sprinter. Alex's shows signs that he can go long

[Topcat]

Dosage numbers have been accused of being past posted. At least a couple of the Derby winner's numbers were adjusted up AFTER they won.

[JackS]

I think in this case you might forgive some past-posting. Dealing with theory is never exact and it may have taken the Derby to prove/improve/dis-prove a question mark relating to the horses linage.
Interesting subject and would hope to see someone knowledgeable post on the impact of dosage.
I have noted in recent years that horses that seem to fit on dosage but don't actually win the Derby can win or do much better in the Preakness and/or Belmont.

[betovernetcapper]

Came across this well written blog on Dosage

http://www.paceappraiser.com/blog/index.php?p=22

[shanta]

Dosage numbers have been accused of being past posted. At least a couple of the Derby winner's numbers were adjusted up AFTER they won.

I agree 100% with this.
Richie

[swetyejohn]

Dosage numbers have been accused of being past posted. At least a couple of the Derby winner's numbers were adjusted up AFTER they won.

Dosage numbers change all the time. For example, a sire in Bellamy Road's pedigree, Chief's Crown, was just made a chef. This caused Bellamy's Dosage to go down from 3.5 to 2.25.

And as Jack S says it may take races like the KY Derby to help understand to a sire's influence on his progeny.

Strike the Gold had a very high Dosage number. A year or two after he won the KY Derby his sire Alydar was designated a Chef. This caused Strike the Gold's Dosage to plummet to a number that suggested he could stay.

Part of the key to looking at Dosage numbers of horses that have few Chefs in their pedigrees, is to make note of any stallions that might become Chefs. That's easier said than done for the layman. But it never hurts to know pedigree when it comes to handicapping the Derby.

Steve Roman's book is worth reading. He gives the definitive story on Dosage. Also, visit his website at http://www.chef-de-race.com. Lots of good stuff there. There's a very good article arguing that Secretariat probably set world or track records in each of his three Triple Crown races.

John