Bobby Frankel says

[kev]

This from our local newspaper.........

In addition to Bellamy Road's romp in the Wood, Afleet Alex (Arkansas Derby by eight lengths) and Bandini (Blue Grass by six) also won their last starts easily. But a word of caution comes from Bobby Frankel, trainer of Louisiana Derby winner and Blue Grass runner-up High Limit.

"You know I'm a sheets guy," he said, referring to the handicapping sheets that correlate horses' performances to numbers on a graph as a means of charting form. "The three favorites all ran their best races the other day. If they can back up a little bit and some other horses move forward a little bit, it could be a tight race. If you just read the sheets, it's going to be a closer race than everybody thinks."

Me being a sheet player, I thought I would post it. He's right it's going to be alot closer than the odds will show come derby day.

[Elysium Stables]

Check this out

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=27802

I don't think that at least one of those three has peaked just yet.

[Speed Figure]

I don't need the sheets to know they run there best figures in there last race.

[kev]

No s@it, I think he was trying to say they might not be able to run back to their best. Cause come derby day BR and AA will take alot of money. BAND what 6-1, 8-1?? BR and AA maybe 5-2 each??

[Speed Figure]

I was not trying to be funny, just making a point.

[kev]

Me too.

[JPinMaryland]

Can I just be funny?

[kenwoodallpromos]

Sounds like Frankel is saying it will be an "anybody" race- a upickem.
I have decided not to bet the Derby. But that is not surprising for me!
I heard somewhere a lot of big trainers read the sheets.

[Valuist]

I'll be shocked if Afleet Alex is 5-2. Coming off the setback and the huge move forward, toss is the slow paced Arkansas Derby and he looks like a prime bounce candidate. Bellamy Road will be a solid favorite; I'm not saying he's a lock to win but I think he's a lock to be favored. At 8-1 I would definitely bet Bandini but realistically I'd expect him to be closer to 4-1 or 5-1.

[NYPlayer]

I agree with Frankel to a certain extent. I'm a fairly new sheets user with a background in pace/form. I was just reviewing the sheets for all the potential Derby starters and noticed just how deep the field is here. There are several horses that look like they could make a forward move. As for the favorites boucing, I'm not so sure. It's tough to get all the favorites to bounce in the same race. Here's my take on the top three.

Bandini - IMO He's the most likely to bounce. The number he got in Keeneland is very close to BR's wood, but he doesn't have much of a foundation supporting it. He only raced once as a 2yo and has a forging line leading up to his last number. I say he moves off of that number in the Derby.

Afleet Alex - He's solid, but I think he's running close to his maximum ability at this point. I'm not sure that he'll bounce off of his AK Derby number, but in his favor is a solid condition line that shows he's not that susceptible to bouncing. I expect he'll run a similar number to his last in the Derby, but not much of an improvement, or a significant bounce.

Bellamy Road - IMO he the toughest to predict in terms of a bounce as there's not much of a pattern. But I've gotta believe that he's not spent after just two races this year. His first start was a clear improvement over his 2yo number and his Wood performance was about an 8 length improvement over the 3yo. debut. I think he's set to run another very strong race. As for early pressure, he's got plenty of speed and has shown that he can handle a quick pace just fine. He's the top choice.

Another factor to consider is the post position. I have a feeling that's going to be critical this year.

[Valuist]

Reading between the lines of Frankel's comments, does he sacrifice his own horse going after Bellamy Road? His horse is the one that's likely to be doing the dueling, if anyone can. Or would he be happy to have to rider grab a hold in the second spot while they both slow it down a bit, a la 2002 when the top 3 basically ran 1-2-3 around the track.

[Bobby]

I don't think there is ANYWAY Bellamy Rd runs another 120 beyer in the KY Derby.

He MIGHT win, but . . . I just don't think so.

Last year was a lot clearer to me. I bet SMARTY across. This year I'll take High Fly. Maybe Alex.

The thing about Alex is he's dominated as a 2 & 3 year old. He's shown he can handle the fast fractions. I just can't see 2 winners in a row from OP that's my problem with him. OP has only produced two (I think) Smarty and SUnny's Halo.

[cj]

...OP has only produced two (I think) Smarty and SUnny's Halo.

Grindstone, Lil E. Tee

[Wiley]

I think Spanish Chestnut if he goes will be gunning ala the Blue Grass as a set up for Bandini (same owners). High Limit Frankel probably feels can only win on the lead but I cannot see him forcing the issue unless post position, bad breaks, etc. dictates HL clearing. With probably a 20 horse field, a huge crowd etc. bad breaks are possible. HL looks like a Peace Rules with less conditioning coming up to the Derby. I too see many in here with limited races/conditioning who will be spitting it the last eigth.

Also pacewise a ton of pressers/stalkers so it could be a huge mess just off the leaders into the first turn. This could be the year a closer picks up the pieces after what three straight years with on/near the pace winners. Take your pick on closers, Greater Good has won at CD but breeding is a question, don't like Phone Trick as grandsire, incross to Bold Ruler dam line 2X16. Afleet Alex, though more of a presser, looks tough conditioning, decent breeding, won or placed in nice races, and he has that quick burst of acceleration usually needed to win this race and stay out of trouble - front wraps, bounce, past virual lung infection issues.

[kev]

Your right, besides Bobby Frankel using the sheets, these are some of the ones they have listed on their site, www.thesheets.comDoug O'Neill, John Sadler, Ken Ramsey, Dale Romans, Steve Asmussen, Tom Amoss, Ron Aderson"Jerry Bailey" agent. Their's others. This is something they had on their site also.

"2004 was another banner year for trainers and owners using the SHEETS.
Seven of the top fifteen and eighteen of the top one hundred trainers in money earned were SHEET customers and for the second straight year SHEET trainers ranked 1-2-3.
Five of the top fifteen and 14 of the top one hundred owners in money earned were SHEET customers, including the leading woman owner, Maggi Moss, who ranked number thirty.
In addition two of the top fifteen jockeys in money earned were SHEET customers.
We congratulate them all and are happy to be a part of their very successful year in racing."

June 5, 2004 - Belmont Stakes Notebook (NY Post: 6/5/04)
Sizing up the opposition, Servis said he thinks this is a "very good group" of 3-year-olds.
"one of the biggest tools I use in my training and handicapping is the Ragozin [speed-rating] Sheets," he said. "I've compared them to last year's, and I thought this was a much better crop. With that being said, they seem to be a little erratic [running] big numbers and then bouncing off that.
"The thing I like so much about my horse is that his numbers have been very steady. He hasn't had one blowout race. Even in the Preakness, there wasn't a big change. When you get that big change, you worry about the bounce theory."

[Elysium Stables]

This from our local newspaper.........

"You know I'm a sheets guy," he said, referring to the handicapping sheets that correlate horses' performances to numbers on a graph as a means of charting form. "The three favorites all ran their best races the other day."

Me being a sheet player, I thought I would post it. He's right it's going to be alot closer than the odds will show come derby day.

Actually according to the sheets AA's best race was the sanford in which he ran the best number ever, or at least as long as the sheets have been out, by a 2 year old.

[kev]

That could be true for a all time 2yo top, now AA fastest for the sheets came on three races back in that sprint he ran a 0+