DerbyTrail
04-26-2005, 12:44 PM
From Steve's Derby Trail.. Visit and Join!
http://www.groups.yahoo.com/group/derbytrail
DON'T TAKE PREP FINALES AS GOSPEL TRUTH ABOUT ALEX, BANDINI
Saturday's Lexington Stakes at Keeneland marked the traditional end to the Derby Trail prep season. But in a year that has turned out to be something far short of traditional, Friday's Derby Trial Stakes at Churchill may hearken back to a different era by producing a Derby starter in participant Don't Get Mad.
Like so much of this year's lead-up to the most anticipated two minutes in sports, the results of the past two Saturday's yielded answers that were interpreted and analyzed from every conceivable viewpoint and still seem less than definitive from where we sit.
BANDINI, 'ALEX' DOMINANT IN VICTORY, BUT WHO WAS BETTER?
A week earlier, Bandini drew away from High Limit, Closing Argument, Sun King and Consolidator to win by 6 widening lengths in a Blue Grass edition that was generally considered the deepest Derby prep of the year. Later, Afleet Alex returned his name to the top of the Derby Watch lists just in time with a resounding Arkansas Derby triumph by 8 lengths over Flower Alley, Andromeda's Hero, Real Dandy and Greater Good. Nine of the 10 sophomores above are going forward to Churchill for the classic feature May 7. (The exception is earnings-eligible Real Dandy, and we believe to be as good as at least a quarter of the likely Derby field.)
The general consensus from pundits and fans alike regarding the Blue Grass-Ark Derby results was that Afleet Alex had smashingly answered all questions: healthy; back in form; capable at 9f and beyond; better with Jeremy Rose aloft. Bandini was judged as having displayed his class, but concerns were raised over his all-out effort three weeks before the big race, and his slow "come home" time (:39.1).
A 108 Beyer for Afleet Alex and 103 for Bandini left many concluding that Afleet Alex goes forward to Louisville as the solid second choice behind Wood romper Bellamy Road while Bandini remains in the second tier group for consideration behind the top choices. But hold on a minute.. It may not be that simple.
How impressive is winning the Arkansas Derby easily while coming home in :37.3? It would seem to bode well for the winner's Derby chances, wouldn't it? And winning the Blue Grass with the entire field finishing in :40 or more behind you doesn't look like much of an accomplishment or endorsement for Derby success, does it? It would seem to make the group from the race appear as throwouts... Derby winners come home fast, right?
Seminal race-writer Steve Davidowitz addressed this topic in an analysis of the two races and concluded that the Blue Grass runner, and those behind him, shouldn't be casually dismissed for running what looked like a slow race on paper. He further adduced that the AK Derby winner's performance, while impressive, likely looked better than it really was. And he was proven correct...
Proven correct? How could Davidowitz be proven correct more than a week before the Derby? He had addressed the two races in a 2003 DRF Simulcast Weekly article when Sir Cherokee had won the AK Derby identically to Afleet Alex and Peace Rules had run a similar Blue Grass to Bandini! Indeed, Sir Cherokee finished the '03 AK Derby in the identical :11.4 which Afleet Alex ran last week.
In the 1984 Ark, filly Althea finished up the last panel in under :11! Fast closing times in the Oaklawn standard are nothing new... At 9f, horses ALWAYS come flying home at Hot Springs because of an imperceptible downhill pitch to the home stretch. ESPN's Randy Moss figured it out 20 years ago when he saw rainwater rushing past the finish line after a deluge.
As for the Blue Grass, just as in 2003, no one was able to make up ground on the winner in the final quarter mile or more. Peace Rules came home that year in :40.2 on a pace line that was similar to last Saturday's: fast early, slow late.. It sure didn't seem to affect his third place Derby effort three weeks later, did it?
While Bobby Frankel's game son of Jules utilized an inside bias at Keeneland that day and Bandini used what appeared to be more of preferential path 3-wide, the quirky Lexington oval may have been playing identically in both editions. In fact, trainer John Kimmel, watching the Blue Grass with Thoro-Graph's Jerry Brown last week, corrected the figure maker when Brown suggested that Bandini had finished slowly. "They've been coming home in :16 on this surface," Kimmel said.
The conclusion? While we are happy for the resurrection of Afleet Alex and consider him a serious Derby player, we're not ready to annoint him just yet. Bandini is similarly considered a player, and we won't be holding a slow Blue Grass finish against him when finalizing our selections. (We'll address the horses that finished behind this pait later in the week.)
FLORIDA SQUEEZES OUT ANOTHER DERBY STARTER
In the Lexington, Todd Pletcher completed a personal trifecta adding race winner Coin Silver to his two previous confirmed Derby starters, Blue Grass hero Bandini and Lane's End victor Flower Alley. The race marked the end of trainer John Servis (Smarty Jones) attempt to bring a top candidate to the Derby a second year in a row with Rockport Harbor.
The Nashua-Remsen winner, the first quarter of his sophomore season fraught with minor injuries, medical issues and training setbacks, ran a belabored sixth in the Lex, and will receive a freshening in an attempt to allow the big grey colt to demonstrate his quality in the second half of the year. It's a prudent move and we applaud the "Rocky" camp for "doing the right thing."
Coin Silver became the latest Pletcher trainee to come to hand in a timely fashion for the Eclipse winning conditioner, who less than two months ago appeared devoid of participants for rose run laurels. But as we have brought to your attention for weeks, horses exiting the Gulfstream winter meet are the "boys with something extra", and Coin Silver became just the latest successful example.
The son of Anees, forgotten at 13-1 after starting the day as at 6-1, keyed a $638 trifecta that we tabbed, in order, with our 2nd, 3rd and 4th choices in our race preview four horse selection box. While unreasonable to expect the lightly-raced colt to impact the Derby, he has the look of just one more Pletcher runner that will need to considered throughout the '05 season.
Sort It Out, the Bob Baffert-Stonerside project, finished a solid second behind the $65,000 Peachtree Stables KEE purchase to likely gain a Derby slot at the eleventh hour for the three time Derby-winning trainer. Storm Surge, eligible for a Derby berth on earnings but currently on the fence, solidified his reputation as the most reliable show bet in racing, having finished third in a trio of stakes in a row. Going Wild, fifth and well beaten again, will still look toward the Derby according to unflappable trainer D. Wayne Lukas, but will need at least two defections from those above him on the earnings list to make the starting grid.
THE DERBY FIELD: DON'T GET MAD TO TRY DERBY TRIAL TO DERBY?
We feature the Top 23 below, with Don't Get Mad, B. Wayne Hughes' other horse (Greeley's Galaxy), the lone member of the group with a race yet to run. The closer will try Friday's Derby Trial, and if he runs well may come back the following week in the Derby. I'll have to do some research to see the last time that happened...
1 Afleet Alex $1,245,000
2 Wilko1,004,515
3 High Fly 796,500
4 Consolidator 632,250
5 Bellamy Road 570,000
6 Bandini 525,000
7 High Limit510,000
8 Flower Alley 500,000
9 Buzzards Bay480,000
10 Sun King402,500
11 Greater Good391,344
12 Storm Surge 215,140
13 Coin Silver 201,500
14 Noble Causeway 190,000
15 Giacomo184,300
16 Closing Argument 165,000
17 General John B 150,000
18 Spanish Chestnut 124,000
19 Andromeda's Hero115,000
20 Sort It Out 65,000
21 Don't Get Mad 60,000
22 Going Wild 57,250
23 Greeley's Galaxy * 300,000
http://www.groups.yahoo.com/group/derbytrail
DON'T TAKE PREP FINALES AS GOSPEL TRUTH ABOUT ALEX, BANDINI
Saturday's Lexington Stakes at Keeneland marked the traditional end to the Derby Trail prep season. But in a year that has turned out to be something far short of traditional, Friday's Derby Trial Stakes at Churchill may hearken back to a different era by producing a Derby starter in participant Don't Get Mad.
Like so much of this year's lead-up to the most anticipated two minutes in sports, the results of the past two Saturday's yielded answers that were interpreted and analyzed from every conceivable viewpoint and still seem less than definitive from where we sit.
BANDINI, 'ALEX' DOMINANT IN VICTORY, BUT WHO WAS BETTER?
A week earlier, Bandini drew away from High Limit, Closing Argument, Sun King and Consolidator to win by 6 widening lengths in a Blue Grass edition that was generally considered the deepest Derby prep of the year. Later, Afleet Alex returned his name to the top of the Derby Watch lists just in time with a resounding Arkansas Derby triumph by 8 lengths over Flower Alley, Andromeda's Hero, Real Dandy and Greater Good. Nine of the 10 sophomores above are going forward to Churchill for the classic feature May 7. (The exception is earnings-eligible Real Dandy, and we believe to be as good as at least a quarter of the likely Derby field.)
The general consensus from pundits and fans alike regarding the Blue Grass-Ark Derby results was that Afleet Alex had smashingly answered all questions: healthy; back in form; capable at 9f and beyond; better with Jeremy Rose aloft. Bandini was judged as having displayed his class, but concerns were raised over his all-out effort three weeks before the big race, and his slow "come home" time (:39.1).
A 108 Beyer for Afleet Alex and 103 for Bandini left many concluding that Afleet Alex goes forward to Louisville as the solid second choice behind Wood romper Bellamy Road while Bandini remains in the second tier group for consideration behind the top choices. But hold on a minute.. It may not be that simple.
How impressive is winning the Arkansas Derby easily while coming home in :37.3? It would seem to bode well for the winner's Derby chances, wouldn't it? And winning the Blue Grass with the entire field finishing in :40 or more behind you doesn't look like much of an accomplishment or endorsement for Derby success, does it? It would seem to make the group from the race appear as throwouts... Derby winners come home fast, right?
Seminal race-writer Steve Davidowitz addressed this topic in an analysis of the two races and concluded that the Blue Grass runner, and those behind him, shouldn't be casually dismissed for running what looked like a slow race on paper. He further adduced that the AK Derby winner's performance, while impressive, likely looked better than it really was. And he was proven correct...
Proven correct? How could Davidowitz be proven correct more than a week before the Derby? He had addressed the two races in a 2003 DRF Simulcast Weekly article when Sir Cherokee had won the AK Derby identically to Afleet Alex and Peace Rules had run a similar Blue Grass to Bandini! Indeed, Sir Cherokee finished the '03 AK Derby in the identical :11.4 which Afleet Alex ran last week.
In the 1984 Ark, filly Althea finished up the last panel in under :11! Fast closing times in the Oaklawn standard are nothing new... At 9f, horses ALWAYS come flying home at Hot Springs because of an imperceptible downhill pitch to the home stretch. ESPN's Randy Moss figured it out 20 years ago when he saw rainwater rushing past the finish line after a deluge.
As for the Blue Grass, just as in 2003, no one was able to make up ground on the winner in the final quarter mile or more. Peace Rules came home that year in :40.2 on a pace line that was similar to last Saturday's: fast early, slow late.. It sure didn't seem to affect his third place Derby effort three weeks later, did it?
While Bobby Frankel's game son of Jules utilized an inside bias at Keeneland that day and Bandini used what appeared to be more of preferential path 3-wide, the quirky Lexington oval may have been playing identically in both editions. In fact, trainer John Kimmel, watching the Blue Grass with Thoro-Graph's Jerry Brown last week, corrected the figure maker when Brown suggested that Bandini had finished slowly. "They've been coming home in :16 on this surface," Kimmel said.
The conclusion? While we are happy for the resurrection of Afleet Alex and consider him a serious Derby player, we're not ready to annoint him just yet. Bandini is similarly considered a player, and we won't be holding a slow Blue Grass finish against him when finalizing our selections. (We'll address the horses that finished behind this pait later in the week.)
FLORIDA SQUEEZES OUT ANOTHER DERBY STARTER
In the Lexington, Todd Pletcher completed a personal trifecta adding race winner Coin Silver to his two previous confirmed Derby starters, Blue Grass hero Bandini and Lane's End victor Flower Alley. The race marked the end of trainer John Servis (Smarty Jones) attempt to bring a top candidate to the Derby a second year in a row with Rockport Harbor.
The Nashua-Remsen winner, the first quarter of his sophomore season fraught with minor injuries, medical issues and training setbacks, ran a belabored sixth in the Lex, and will receive a freshening in an attempt to allow the big grey colt to demonstrate his quality in the second half of the year. It's a prudent move and we applaud the "Rocky" camp for "doing the right thing."
Coin Silver became the latest Pletcher trainee to come to hand in a timely fashion for the Eclipse winning conditioner, who less than two months ago appeared devoid of participants for rose run laurels. But as we have brought to your attention for weeks, horses exiting the Gulfstream winter meet are the "boys with something extra", and Coin Silver became just the latest successful example.
The son of Anees, forgotten at 13-1 after starting the day as at 6-1, keyed a $638 trifecta that we tabbed, in order, with our 2nd, 3rd and 4th choices in our race preview four horse selection box. While unreasonable to expect the lightly-raced colt to impact the Derby, he has the look of just one more Pletcher runner that will need to considered throughout the '05 season.
Sort It Out, the Bob Baffert-Stonerside project, finished a solid second behind the $65,000 Peachtree Stables KEE purchase to likely gain a Derby slot at the eleventh hour for the three time Derby-winning trainer. Storm Surge, eligible for a Derby berth on earnings but currently on the fence, solidified his reputation as the most reliable show bet in racing, having finished third in a trio of stakes in a row. Going Wild, fifth and well beaten again, will still look toward the Derby according to unflappable trainer D. Wayne Lukas, but will need at least two defections from those above him on the earnings list to make the starting grid.
THE DERBY FIELD: DON'T GET MAD TO TRY DERBY TRIAL TO DERBY?
We feature the Top 23 below, with Don't Get Mad, B. Wayne Hughes' other horse (Greeley's Galaxy), the lone member of the group with a race yet to run. The closer will try Friday's Derby Trial, and if he runs well may come back the following week in the Derby. I'll have to do some research to see the last time that happened...
1 Afleet Alex $1,245,000
2 Wilko1,004,515
3 High Fly 796,500
4 Consolidator 632,250
5 Bellamy Road 570,000
6 Bandini 525,000
7 High Limit510,000
8 Flower Alley 500,000
9 Buzzards Bay480,000
10 Sun King402,500
11 Greater Good391,344
12 Storm Surge 215,140
13 Coin Silver 201,500
14 Noble Causeway 190,000
15 Giacomo184,300
16 Closing Argument 165,000
17 General John B 150,000
18 Spanish Chestnut 124,000
19 Andromeda's Hero115,000
20 Sort It Out 65,000
21 Don't Get Mad 60,000
22 Going Wild 57,250
23 Greeley's Galaxy * 300,000