Updated Derby Rankings (as of 23 Apr)

[Que]

1. (1) BELLAMY ROAD (5-4-0-0 $611,400) (1047-1052-1047-1046) (1033) Nicholas P. Zito 4/9/2005-Aqu9 1 1/8m 1-17 1/2 Grd (1|750,000) Wood Memorial S.
2. (2) HIGH FLY (6-5-0-1 $897,300) (1024-1033-1034-1026) (1006) Nicholas P. Zito 4/2/2005-GP12 1 1/8m 1-1 1/2 Grd (1|1,000,000) Florida Derby
3. (3) BANDINI (5-3-1-0 $564,180) (1002-1015-1028-1024) (1009) Todd A. Pletcher 4/16/2005-Kee9 1 1/8m 1-6 Grd (1|750,000) Toyota Blue Grass S.
4. (4) GREELEY`S GALAXY (4-3-0-0 $358,480) (1036-1024-1016-1024) (1026) Glen Stute 4/9/2005-Haw7 1 1/8m 1-9 1/2 Grd (2|500,000) Illinois Derby
5. (5) AFLEET ALEX (9-6-2-0 $1,315,800) (983-985-1003-1027) (1066) Timothy F. Ritchey 4/16/2005-OP9 1 1/8m 1-8 Grd (2|1,000,000) Arkansas Derby
6. (7) CONSOLIDATOR (10-3-1-1 $661,760) (987-1011-1024-1001) (953) D. Wayne Lukas 4/16/2005-Kee9 1 1/8m 5-13 Grd (1|750,000) Toyota Blue Grass S.
7. (6) B. B. BEST (10-4-0-3 $513,710) (1032-1039-1038-1020) (981) Edward Plesa 4/2/2005-GP12 1 1/8m 3-3 1/2 Grd (1|1,000,000) Florida Derby
8. (8) NOBLE CAUSEWAY (6-2-3-0 $245,140) (1001-1016-1026-1023) (1014) Nicholas P. Zito 4/2/2005-GP12 1 1/8m 2-1 1/2 Grd (1|1,000,000) Florida Derby
9. (9) SIS CITY* (9-5-0-2 $682,980) (1024-1002-1007-1011) (1012) Richard E. Dutrow 4/9/2005-Kee9 1 1/16m 1-10 1/2 Grd (1|500,000) Ashland S.
10. (11) WILKO (4-1-0-2 $938,580) (972-1001-1006-1011) (1013) Craig Dollase 4/9/2005-SA6 1 1/8m 3-1/2 Grd (1|750,000) Santa Anita Derby
11. (12) DECLAN`S MOON (5-5-0-0 $627,300) (975-998-1009-1018) (1027) Ronald W. Ellis 3/5/2005-SA5 1 1/16m 1-2 Grd (2|200,000) Santa Catalina S.
12. (14) GOLDEN MAN (11-4-2-1 $58,540) (986-996-1003-1019) (1043) Richard E. Dutrow 4/2/2005-GP4 1 1/8m 1-3 Alw (NW1X|33,000)
13. (13) SUN KING (7-3-0-2 $452,150) (964-1001-1018-1008) (985) Nicholas P. Zito 4/16/2005-Kee9 1 1/8m 4-9 Grd (1|750,000) Toyota Blue Grass S.
14. (15) ROUND POND* (4-3-0-1 $217,300) (966-986-1005-1020) (1046) John C. Servis 4/15/2005-OP10 1 1/16m 1-4 1/2 Grd (2|250,000) Fantasy S.
15. (16) SCRAPPY T (8-2-4-2 $189,120) (1031-1050-1041-1013) (951) W. Robert Bailes 4/9/2005-Aqu9 1 1/8m 3-18 1/4 Grd (1|750,000) Wood Memorial S.
16. (17) SWEET CATOMINE* (7-5-1-0 $1,059,600) (978-996-1004-1003) (993) Julio C. Canani 4/9/2005-SA6 1 1/8m 5-5 Grd (1|750,000) Santa Anita Derby
17. (18) PARK AVENUE BALL (8-3-2-0 $368,600) (987-1006-1024-1017) (1002) James T. Ryerson 4/2/2005-GP12 1 1/8m 4-5 Grd (1|1,000,000) Florida Derby
18. (20) HIGH LIMIT (4-3-1-0 $552,000) (1014-1023-1032-1014) (972) Robert J. Frankel 4/16/2005-Kee9 1 1/8m 2-6 Grd (1|750,000) Toyota Blue Grass S.
19. (22) GIACOMO (7-1-2-2 $226,716) (961-986-1001-1009) (1015) John A. Shirreffs 4/9/2005-SA6 1 1/8m 4-2 Grd (1|750,000) Santa Anita Derby
20. (25) SURVIVALIST (6-2-3-0 $281,490) (977-1009-1022-1015) (993) Claude R. McGaughey III 4/9/2005-Aqu9 1 1/8m 2-17 1/2 Grd (1|750,000) Wood Memorial S.
21. (26) MAGIC SPEED (9-1-3-1 $57,950) (994-999-1004-1013) (1026) Manuel J. Wayar 4/2/2005-GP4 1 1/8m 2-3 Alw (NW1X|33,000)
22. (24) DEFER (5-2-1-0 $117,900) (982-1013-1018-1012) (996) Claude R. McGaughey III 3/5/2005-GP11 1 1/8m 7-7 1/2 Grd (2|300,000) Fountain of Youth S.
23. (27) REVERBERATE (6-1-1-2 $46,665) (1023-1017-1016-1011) (993) Sal Russo 3/5/2005-GP8 1 1/8m 2-3 1/4 Alw (NW1X|33,000)
24. (28) CLOSING ARGUMENT (7-3-2-2 $586,984) (995-1012-1024-1008) (972) Kiaran P. McLaughlin 4/16/2005-Kee9 1 1/8m 3-9 Grd (1|750,000) Toyota Blue Grass S.
25. (21) COIN SILVER (5-2-1-1 $232,240) (973-1005-1003-1004) (998) Todd A. Pletcher 4/23/2005-Kee9 1 1/16m 1-3 1/2 Grd (2|325,000) Coolmore Lexington S.
26. (29) FLOWER ALLEY (4-2-1-1 $521,660) (995-988-1002-1013) (1023) Todd A. Pletcher 4/16/2005-OP9 1 1/8m 2-8 Grd (2|1,000,000) Arkansas Derby
27. (30) BUZZARDS BAY (8-3-1-2 $559,440) (985-1005-1010-1012) (1006) Jeff Mullins 4/9/2005-SA6 1 1/8m 1-1/2 Grd (1|750,000) Santa Anita Derby
28. (-) HARLINGTON (3-2-0-0 $47,400) (971-992-1000-997) (980) Todd A. Pletcher 2/12/2005-FG9 1 1/16m 6-3 Grd (3|150,000) Risen Star S.
29. (-) SOUTHERN AFRICA (5-1-1-0 $200,670) (1017-1019-1024-1011) (974) Michael Puhich 4/2/2005-Sun12 1 1/8m 2-1 Stk (500,000) WinStar Derby
30. (-) GOLDEN SHINE (4-2-0-0 $64,580) (958-998-1008-1013) (1011) David E. Hofmans 3/19/2005-SA8 1 1/16m 5-12 Grd (2|250,000) San Felipe S.

[Que]

1. BELLAMY ROAD (5-4-0-0 $611,400)
4/9/2005-Aqu9 1 1/8m (1047-1052-1047-1046) (1033) 3641 1-17 1/2 Grd (1|750,000)
3/12/2005-GP6 1m (1006-1020-1029-1037) (1052) ---- 1-15 3/4 Alw (NW2X|35,000)
10/9/2004-Kee7 1 1/16m (1007-1006-1005-990) (945) 3441 7-12 Stk (500,000)
9/6/2004-RD13 1 1/16m (951-970-995-1008) (1025) 3487 1-2 3/4 Grd (3|200,000)

2. HIGH FLY (6-5-0-1 $897,300)
4/2/2005-GP12 1 1/8m (1024-1033-1034-1026) (1006) 3573 1-1 1/2 Grd (1|1,000,000)
3/5/2005-GP11 1 1/8m (1008-1018-1024-1025) (1023) 3565 1-3/4 Grd (2|300,000)
2/5/2005-GP10 1 1/8m (1017-1012-1014-1015) (1011) 3532 3-2 Grd (3|150,000)
1/8/2005-GP7 1m (998-1017-1018-1028) (1047) ---- 1-9 Stk (125,000)

3. BANDINI (5-3-1-0 $564,180)
4/16/2005-Kee9 1 1/8m (1002-1015-1028-1024) (1009) 3554 1-6 Grd (1|750,000)
3/5/2005-GP11 1 1/8m (996-1017-1023-1024) (1021) 3561 2-3/4 Grd (2|300,000)
2/5/2005-GP7 1 1/8m (1052-1031-1015-1022) (1030) 3569 1-9 Alw (NW1X|33,000)
1/6/2005-GP7 7f (1006-1013-na-1016) (1012) ---- 1-4 1/4 Mdn (32,000)

4. GREELEY`S GALAXY (4-3-0-0 $358,480)
4/9/2005-Haw7 1 1/8m (1036-1024-1016-1024) (1026) 3563 1-9 1/2 Grd (2|500,000)
3/10/2005-SA5 1 1/16m (966-976-989-1011) (1053) 3512 1-4 Alw (NW1X|52,000)
2/19/2005-SA8 6f (989-988-na-989) (982) ---- 1-3 1/2 Mdn (44,000)
1/15/2005-SA9 5.5f (989-979-na-982) (970) ---- 6-10 1/2 Mdn (44,000)

5. AFLEET ALEX (9-6-2-0 $1,315,800)
4/16/2005-OP9 1 1/8m (983-985-1003-1027) (1066) 3557 1-8 Grd (2|1,000,000)
3/19/2005-OP10 1 1/16m (954-995-1002-986) (938) 3420 6-12 1/2 Grd (3|250,000)
3/5/2005-OP10 6f (957-1004-na-1019) (1036) ---- 1-2 3/4 Stk (50,000)
10/30/2004-LS7 1 1/16m (955-989-1010-1026) (1047) 3550 2-3/4 Grd (1|1,500,000)

6. CONSOLIDATOR (10-3-1-1 $661,760)
4/16/2005-Kee9 1 1/8m (987-1011-1024-1001) (953) 3480 5-13 Grd (1|750,000)
3/19/2005-SA8 1 1/16m (985-1013-1018-1036) (1063) 3598 1-6 1/2 Grd (2|250,000)
2/13/2005-SA6 7f (969-974-na-998) (1015) ---- 4-2 1/2 Grd (2|150,000)
10/30/2004-LS7 1 1/16m (987-996-1011-1023) (1038) 3546 4-2 Grd (1|1,500,000)

7. B. B. BEST (10-4-0-3 $513,710)
4/2/2005-GP12 1 1/8m (1032-1039-1038-1020) (981) 3555 3-3 1/2 Grd (1|1,000,000)
3/5/2005-GP11 1 1/8m (1023-1024-1027-1023) (1010) 3560 3-1 1/2 Grd (2|300,000)
1/29/2005-GP8 6f (962-981-na-987) (991) ---- 4-11 3/4 Stk (250,000)
11/27/2004-CD11 1 1/16m (1014-1020-1008-1005) (989) 3505 4-2 1/2 Grd (2|200,000)

8. NOBLE CAUSEWAY (6-2-3-0 $245,140)
4/2/2005-GP12 1 1/8m (1001-1016-1026-1023) (1014) 3556 2-1 1/2 Grd (1|1,000,000)
3/5/2005-GP8 1 1/8m (1019-1010-1008-1016) (1025) 3537 1-3 1/4 Alw (NW1X|33,000)
2/5/2005-GP4 1 1/8m (999-1003-1003-1012) (1022) 3521 1-2 Mdn (32,000)
1/6/2005-GP7 7f (988-998-na-1006) (1009) ---- 2-4 1/4 Mdn (32,000)

9. SIS CITY (9-5-0-2 $682,980)
4/9/2005-Kee9 1 1/16m (1024-1002-1007-1011) (1012) 3514 1-10 1/2 Grd (1|500,000)
2/5/2005-GP6 1 1/8m (1018-1008-1011-1026) (1051) 3569 1-16 Grd (2|150,000)
11/27/2004-Aqu7 1 1/8m (989-1007-1011-1015) (1014) 3528 1-3 3/4 Grd (2|200,000)
10/30/2004-LS3 1 1/16m (1013-1014-1015-1019) (1014) 3540 4-5 3/4 Grd (1|1,000,000)

10. WILKO (4-1-0-2 $938,580)
4/9/2005-SA6 1 1/8m (972-1001-1006-1011) (1013) 3514 3-1/2 Grd (1|750,000)
3/19/2005-SA8 1 1/16m (955-995-1013-1020) (1024) 3533 4-8 Grd (2|250,000)
12/18/2004-Hol8 1 1/16m (992-1007-1014-1018) (1015) 3534 3-1 Grd (1|449,500)
10/30/2004-LS7 1 1/16m (984-992-1009-1027) (1055) 3559 1-3/4 Grd (1|1,500,000)

11. DECLAN`S MOON (5-5-0-0 $627,300)
3/5/2005-SA5 1 1/16m (975-998-1009-1018) (1027) 3532 1-2 Grd (2|200,000)
12/18/2004-Hol8 1 1/16m (992-1012-1014-1020) (1020) 3544 1-1 Grd (1|449,500)
11/20/2004-Hol8 7f (991-1010-na-1012) (1006) ---- 1-2 Grd (3|100,000)
9/8/2004-Dmr8 7f (980-992-na-1022) (1046) ---- 1-Neck Grd (2|250,000)

12. GOLDEN MAN (11-4-2-1 $58,540)
4/2/2005-GP4 1 1/8m (986-996-1003-1019) (1043) 3538 1-3 Alw (NW1X|33,000)
1/23/2005-GP3 7f (961-980-na-988) (992) ---- 2-5 1/2 Clm (60,000|28,000)
1/1/2005-Crc3 1 1/16m (941-966-984-993) (1007) 3445 1-1 3/4 sAlw (1$L|18,000)
12/2/2004-Crc2 1m (960-978-986-989) (988) ---- 3-2 sAlw (16,000)

13. SUN KING (7-3-0-2 $452,150)
4/16/2005-Kee9 1 1/8m (964-1001-1018-1008) (985) 3500 4-9 Grd (1|750,000)
3/19/2005-Tam10 1 1/16m (980-975-983-1005) (1045) 3492 1-3 1/4 Grd (3|250,000)
2/26/2005-GP10 1m (998-1005-1013-1027) (1060) ---- 1-5 3/4 Alw (NW1X|33,000)
10/30/2004-LS7 1 1/16m (976-992-1011-1025) (1043) 3549 3-1 Grd (1|1,500,000)

14. ROUND POND (4-3-0-1 $217,300)
4/15/2005-OP10 1 1/16m (966-986-1005-1020) (1046) 3536 1-4 1/2 Grd (2|250,000)
3/20/2005-OP9 1 1/16m (973-992-1005-1009) (1004) 3497 1-5 3/4 Stk (75,000)
2/27/2005-OP10 6f (977-985-na-1005) (1032) ---- 1-8 Mdn (32,000)
2/13/2005-OP7 6f (971-988-na-990) (986) ---- 3-4 Mdn (31,000)

15. SCRAPPY T (8-2-4-2 $189,120)
4/9/2005-Aqu9 1 1/8m (1031-1050-1041-1013) (951) 3535 3-18 1/4 Grd (1|750,000)
2/12/2005-Aqu8 1 1/16m (1010-1018-1014-1008) (994) 3516 3-1 1/2 Stk (75,000)
1/15/2005-Aqu8 1m 70yds (1023-999-999-1004) (1026) ---- 1-1 Stk (75,000)
12/15/2004-Aqu7 1 1/16m (1039-1026-1020-1010) (988) 3525 2-Neck Alw (NW1X|44,000)

[Que]

16. SWEET CATOMINE (7-5-1-0 $1,059,600)
4/9/2005-SA6 1 1/8m (978-996-1004-1003) (993) 3484 5-5 Grd (1|750,000)
3/13/2005-SA9 1 1/16m (958-966-974-1002) (1056) 3482 1-3 Grd (1|300,000)
1/16/2005-SA3 1 1/16m (999-1006-1011-1007) (991) 3501 1-2 1/2 Grd (3|100,000)
10/30/2004-LS3 1 1/16m (973-999-1010-1029) (1063) 3573 1-3 3/4 Grd (1|1,000,000)

17. PARK AVENUE BALL (8-3-2-0 $368,600)
4/2/2005-GP12 1 1/8m (987-1006-1024-1017) (1002) 3531 4-5 Grd (1|1,000,000)
3/5/2005-GP11 1 1/8m (986-1011-1019-1013) (998) 3524 6-6 3/4 Grd (2|300,000)
2/5/2005-GP5 6.5f (976-985-na-1002) (1014) ---- 2-4 1/2 Grd (2|150,000)
10/9/2004-Bel7 1 1/16m (972-989-1001-1001) (988) 3469 5-15 1/4 Grd (1|500,000)

18. HIGH LIMIT (4-3-1-0 $552,000)
4/16/2005-Kee9 1 1/8m (1014-1023-1032-1014) (972) 3525 2-6 Grd (1|750,000)
3/12/2005-FG6 1 1/16m (1004-1000-1005-1014) (1019) 3520 1-4 Grd (2|600,000)
10/24/2004-Del6 1m (987-985-1000-1018) (1063) ---- 1-7 3/4 Alw (NW1X|36,000)
10/4/2004-Del6 6f (993-1007-na-1016) (1026) ---- 1-10 3/4 Mdn (34,000)

19. GIACOMO (7-1-2-2 $226,716)
4/9/2005-SA6 1 1/8m (961-986-1001-1009) (1015) 3497 4-2 Grd (1|750,000)
3/19/2005-SA8 1 1/16m (966-1002-1015-1023) (1027) 3546 2-6 1/2 Grd (2|250,000)
2/5/2005-SA7 1 1/8m (1009-1012-1014-1009) (994) 3513 3-1 Stk (100,000)
12/18/2004-Hol8 1 1/16m (959-991-1010-1018) (1026) 3527 2-1 Grd (1|449,500)

20. SURVIVALIST (6-2-3-0 $281,490)
4/9/2005-Aqu9 1 1/8m (977-1009-1022-1015) (993) 3523 2-17 1/2 Grd (1|750,000)
3/19/2005-Aqu9 1m (1007-1013-1021-1014) (990) ---- 1-3/4 Grd (3|150,000)
2/26/2005-GP10 1m (997-1003-1007-1016) (1032) ---- 2-5 3/4 Alw (NW1X|33,000)
2/5/2005-GP2 7f (965-985-na-1000) (1013) ---- 3-1 3/4 Alw (NW1X|33,000)

21. MAGIC SPEED (9-1-3-1 $57,950)
4/2/2005-GP4 1 1/8m (994-999-1004-1013) (1026) 3522 2-3 Alw (NW1X|33,000)
2/26/2005-GP10 1m (993-1004-997-981) (921) ---- 6-23 1/2 Alw (NW1X|33,000)
2/5/2005-GP7 1 1/8m (966-997-998-993) (979) 3458 3-16 3/4 Alw (NW1X|33,000)
1/21/2005-GP8 6f (955-974-na-983) (990) ---- 7-9 Alw (NW1X|33,000)

22. DEFER (5-2-1-0 $117,900)
3/5/2005-GP11 1 1/8m (982-1013-1018-1012) (996) 3521 7-7 1/2 Grd (2|300,000)
2/5/2005-GP5 6.5f (980-992-na-998) (996) ---- 4-6 3/4 Grd (2|150,000)
11/20/2004-Pim5 1 1/16m (936-962-979-996) (1023) 3452 1-2 Grd (3|100,000)
11/2/2004-Aqu8 1m (1014-1016-1024-1004) (945) ---- 2-6 1/4 Grd (3|100,000)

23. REVERBERATE (6-1-1-2 $46,665)
3/5/2005-GP8 1 1/8m (1023-1017-1016-1011) (993) 3519 2-3 1/4 Alw (NW1X|33,000)
2/5/2005-GP7 1 1/8m (1008-1016-1002-990) (960) 3458 4-18 1/2 Alw (NW1X|33,000)
1/8/2005-GP5 7f (962-983-na-1001) (1018) ---- 3-4 1/4 Alw (NW1X|33,000)
11/2/2004-Aqu8 1m (1008-1015-1018-991) (913) ---- 5-13 Grd (3|100,000)

24. CLOSING ARGUMENT (7-3-2-2 $586,984)
4/16/2005-Kee9 1 1/8m (995-1012-1024-1008) (972) 3503 3-9 Grd (1|750,000)
2/5/2005-GP10 1 1/8m (1021-1014-1015-1018) (1018) 3543 1-1 1/2 Grd (3|150,000)
12/4/2004-DeD8 1 1/16m (1033-1024-1016-1000) (961) 3487 2-1 1/2 Stk (1,000,000)
11/13/2004-Crc8 7f (1005-1006-na-1002) (990) ---- 2-4 Stk (150,000)

25. COIN SILVER (5-2-1-1 $232,240)
4/23/2005-Kee9 1 1/16m (973-1005-1003-1004) (998) 3495 1-3 1/2 Grd (2|325,000)
4/2/2005-GP4 1 1/8m (1013-1007-1009-1013) (1015) 3524 3-3 Alw (NW1X|33,000)
3/5/2005-GP7 1 1/8m (1010-1018-1012-1009) (999) 3518 1-1 3/4 Mdn (32,000)
2/5/2005-GP1 6.5f (994-981-na-1003) (1020) ---- 2-1 3/4 Mdn (32,000)

26. FLOWER ALLEY (4-2-1-1 $521,660)
4/16/2005-OP9 1 1/8m (995-988-1002-1013) (1023) 3510 2-8 Grd (2|1,000,000)
3/26/2005-TP9 1 1/8m (1019-1006-1007-1012) (1013) 3519 1-1/2 Grd (2|500,000)
2/19/2005-GP7 1m (1019-1007-1002-1012) (1033) ---- 1-3/4 Mdn (32,000)
12/18/2004-Crc3 6f (1000-1000-na-985) (944) ---- 3-7 1/2 Mdn (24,000)

27. BUZZARDS BAY (8-3-1-2 $559,440)
4/9/2005-SA6 1 1/8m (985-1005-1010-1012) (1006) 3516 1-1/2 Grd (1|750,000)
3/12/2005-BM8 1 1/16m (922-984-997-1004) (1008) 3481 3-2 1/4 Grd (3|200,000)
2/12/2005-FG9 1 1/16m (981-997-1002-984) (930) 3414 10-10 1/2 Grd (3|150,000)
1/15/2005-GG3 1 1/16m (987-991-993-999) (1000) 3472 1-Nose Stk (100,000)

28. HARLINGTON (3-2-0-0 $47,400)
2/12/2005-FG9 1 1/16m (971-992-1000-997) (980) 3461 6-3 Grd (3|150,000)
1/15/2005-GP8 1 1/8m (1015-1014-1006-1016) (1029) 3542 1-3 Alw (NW1X|33,000)
11/28/2004-Aqu3 1m (995-1006-1006-999) (975) ---- 1-Neck Mdn (46,000)

29. SOUTHERN AFRICA (5-1-1-0 $200,670)
4/2/2005-Sun12 1 1/8m (1017-1019-1024-1011) (974) 3512 2-1 Stk (500,000)
2/27/2005-Sun11 1 1/16m (997-1004-1004-1008) (1005) 3505 1-1 1/4 Stk (100,000)
2/5/2005-SA7 1 1/8m (1010-1012-1009-999) (974) 3482 7-7 Stk (100,000)
12/18/2004-Hol8 1 1/16m (971-998-1009-1014) (1015) 3518 4-3 Grd (1|449,500)

30. GOLDEN SHINE (4-2-0-0 $64,580)
3/19/2005-SA8 1 1/16m (958-998-1008-1013) (1011) 3514 5-12 Grd (2|250,000)
2/16/2005-SA4 1 1/16m (972-982-993-1008) (1031) 3498 1-7 1/2 Alw (NW1X|52,000)
7/3/2004-Hol10 5.5f (982-987-na-996) (997) ---- 1-4 Mdn (43,000)
5/30/2004-Hol2 5f (944-975-na-974) (986) ---- 4-7 1/2 Mdn (43,000)

[Figman]

Using Que's historical records, the 2005 Derby appears to be a two-horse race as only two horses have earned a 3580 or greater rating in at least one of their final two preps. But note that CONSOLIDATOR'S big number was not in April but rather in March.

From a March 25th post by QUE

Figman,

Thanks. I agree with your comment about each Derby contender requiring a 3580 race rating or better in one of the Preps. Also, in the last seven derby's (since I've been creating my figures) each Derby winner ran a very big race in April, with an average race rating of 3585--which is only one point different than the average race rating for the Kentucky Derby winner. Therefore, it's quickly becoming put up or shut up time for this year's Derby contenders. There's also only a handful contenders this year that I think are even capable of earning a 3580 race rating. Finally I may revise my ranking format a bit next time to include pace figures and race ratings for each the of my top 30 Derby's candidates last four races.

Que

[Que]

Figman,

Here's how this year's contenders compare with the last seven Kentucky Derby winner's pace ratings prior to the Derby (listed is each contender that has a rating higher than the mean in each category):

Race Rating (Last race): Derby winner's mean rtg = 3585.0
Bellamy Road 3641

Best Race Rating (Last Two Races): Mean = 3587.6
Bellamy Road 3641
Consolidator 3598

Best Race Rating (In March): Mean = 3560.3
High Fly 3565
Consolidator 3598
Bandini 3561

Best Race Rating (In April): Mean = 3585.0
Bellamy Road 3641

Early Speed (1/2m call) Figure (Last Race): Mean = 1015.1
High Fly 1033
Bellamy Road 1052
Bandini 1015
High Limit 1023
Noble Causeway 1016
Greeley`s Galaxy 1024
Spanish Chestnut 1029
Magna Graduate 1004
Monarch Lane 1020
Going Wild 1017

Best Early Speed (1/2m call) Figure (Last Two Races): Mean = 1018.7
High Fly 1033
Bellamy Road 1052
High Limit 1023
Greeley`s Galaxy 1024
Spanish Chestnut 1029
Monarch Lane 1020
Going Wild 1047

Late Speed Figure (Last Race): Mean = 1043.1
Afleet Alex 1066

Best Late Speed Figure (Last Two Races): Mean = 1051.1
Afleet Alex 1066
Consolidator 1063
Greeley`s Galaxy 1052


It's pretty tough to make a case against Bellamy Road, if that horse runs anything comparable to his either his last two races it's all over. It's also interesting to note that Greeley's Galaxy was the only contender to qualify in both the early (presser) and late speed (closing) categories; hopefully Greeley`s Galaxy will get the opportunity to run for the roses.

Que.

[KingChas]

Greely's Galaxy's last workout if true to watcher's and clockers comments-big turn off???"Ran out of gas"staggered home after 6 furlongs very tired horse and rider.That's Scary! :eek:

[Que]

kingChas,

Those comments certainly don't instill alot of confidence. If accurate, then there must have been something wrong with him. It's hard to believe that a horse that finished that strong at 1 1/8 miles less than month ago would "stagger" home in a six furlong work unless there was something seriously amiss.

[andicap]

Que,
when you say the "mean," that leads me to believe that in a sub-par year like this certainly is a horse could win with a below-average rating. If that's so a horse with a recent rating below the "mean" could still be a contender if it had some other things going for it.

[KingChas]

Que,
Take a look at the home page of PA.Steve Haskins-Friday 4/29 Derby doings.
It's a 1st hand assesment of Greeley's workout.It seemed to be a very strange workout.