Speed-Sped-Spd-Sd-Puff Puff Ughhh!

[KingChas]

Lotsa speed-Bellamy Rd-High Fly-High Limit-Sun King-Buzzards Bay-Consolidator-Greely Galaxy?-Going Wild?-One will stay on for wps all others will peter out.Lottsa money to be won this year.Sorry to bust your bubbles,but a lot of these horses are wire to wire or off the board.This isn't Sanita Anita or Aqueduct inner ti's Churchill Downs!

[toetoe]

Okay, but which one?

[Valuist]

Of those horses mentioned, I definitely don't consider Buzzard's Bay a speed horse. Greeley's Galaxy stalked the pace; albeit a fast pace, but still he showed he didn't need the lead. High Fly is more of a stalker/presser than a one-dimensional speed horse. Going Wild? Sure but look what happened when he ran into Bellamy Road. Consolidator? Look what happened when he faced off against a better speedball in High Limit. In terms of going for the lead, I'd say Bellamy Road and High Limit with Going Wild close but struggling to keep up.

[KingChas]

Should I say need to be on the lead types?Lets take a look at PP's 6f mark.

High Fly; (fine horse) always pressing (2nd) one time 3rd-lost groundCould be the stayer?
Consolidator; If not on pace goodbye-(San Felipe nice on wet footing)Overated due to DWL
Bellamy Rd;3 yr old freakish(Aquaduct surface Wood???)pressed at 2 Ugh!Could be real deal?
High Limit;wire to wire pressed once said goodbye
Buzzards Bay;2 wins at 3 wire to wire (he's not War Emblem)If not speed what is he presser,stalker or closer-or here for ego trip?
Sun King;Lead at 6f or kiss his hind goodbye as distance increases
Going Wild; you gotta be betting the trainer not the horse
Greeleys Galaxy;?????
Coin Silver;always on lead (last race sealed track at Kee???)

Last 30 years only 2 favorites have won Derby.
See a lot of program triples in picks.
Its not going to happen.IMHO-If I'm wrong give it to me after the Derby.

[Bubbles]

Should I say need to be on the lead types?Lets take a look at PP's 6f mark.

High Fly; (fine horse) always pressing (2nd) one time 3rd-lost groundCould be the stayer?
Consolidator; If not on pace goodbye-(San Felipe nice on wet footing)Overated due to DWL
Bellamy Rd;3 yr old freakish(Aquaduct surface Wood???)pressed at 2 Ugh!Could be real deal?
High Limit;wire to wire pressed once said goodbye
Buzzards Bay;2 wins at 3 wire to wire (he's not War Emblem)If not speed what is he presser,stalker or closer-or here for ego trip?
Sun King;Lead at 6f or kiss his hind goodbye as distance increases
Going Wild; you gotta be betting the trainer not the horse
Greeleys Galaxy;?????
Coin Silver;always on lead (last race sealed track at Kee???)

Last 30 years only 2 favorites have won Derby.
See a lot of program triples in picks.
Its not going to happen.IMHO-If I'm wrong give it to me after the Derby.

A bunch of nice points made. I see High Fly staying, it appeared in the Fla. Derby that Bailey had all the horse in the world coming down to the wire. I'd love to see what Bellamy Road does with pacesetters that can actually RUN with him. He may be a Point Given-type of horse, the hot early pace may run him into the ground.

[bentoutofshape]

consolidator aint a speedball he has great positional speed which will assure him to stay out of harms way and he loves being eye to eye before pulling away down the stretch.classy type will have the bottom to with stand with most wont.

[KingChas]

I'd love to see what Bellamy Road does with pacesetters that can actually RUN with him. He may be a Point Given-type of horse, the hot early pace may run him into the ground.

Bellamy Rd has me flustered.Big question mark.If this horse keeps improving we might see something very special this year.But what you say makes sense.
The Question; is it all or nothing for Bellamy-win or fade out of the money?Do I key him on top but not under I don't know?This feels like deja vu to me. Holy Bull coming out of NY preps,thought there was no way the Bull could be out of the money.Guess you know what happened. :(

PS;Consolidater had great 5th place positional speed at 1mile&1/8 last race.
SORRY BIGGEST DERBY UNDERLAY 2005!Thanks but no Thanks!

[Bubbles]

I have Bellamy as my #2 behind High Fly. I might put him up at the top with High Fly in exotics, just to be safe, but 'Fly's the single on my win tickets.

[Valuist]

If a horse needs 6f to get near the front, they are not a speed horse IMO. If Bellamy Road or High Limit were to clear and nobody breathed down their neck until 6f had been run they could forget about catching them. If BR or HL are to be cooked, they will have to be fully engaged after 4 furlongs, at the latest.

[KingChas]

Valuist;"If a horse needs 6f to get near the front, they are not a speed horse IMO."

Respectfully we have different hadicapping philosophies,which is good.I hold more value to the 2f and 4f early speed at sprints and 1 turns than a 1&1/4.I have seen a lot of horses on the front end or pressing at 6f in the Derby that either continue to fight onward or spit the bit.Thats the point of the race in the Derby that seems to seperate the men from the boys.-IMHO

[JPinMaryland]

If BR or HL are to be cooked, they will have to be fully engaged after 4 furlongs, at the latest.

Well I dunno about that. Not even sure what you mean. If you see two horses go after each other at say, just before the far turn, you could very easily see one or both of them cooked. So that would be like say, at 6 or 7 furloughs. With another 3 or 4 furloughs to go. That is still quite a long way for two horses to go full out.

WHen ALydar and Affirmed hooked up in the Belmont this was about at the 3/4 pole. They still had 6 furloughs to go. ANd it was amazing, because to see 2 horses engaged for 6 furloughs is quite rare.

Now you are saying that they will only be cooked if they become fully engagd at 4f w/ 8f left? I think that is an odd way to figure. Its hard to imagin even ALydar and Affirmed going 8f that way. And you are saying it would take 8f to cook them? They could be cooked if they only hooked up for 4f.

I am really not sure what you are saying here..

[KingChas]

Bellamy Rd has me flustered.Big question mark.If this horse keeps improving we might see something very special this year.But what you say makes sense.
The Question; is it all or nothing for Bellamy-win or fade out of the money?Do I key him on top but not under I don't know?This feels like deja vu to me. Holy Bull coming out of NY preps,thought there was no way the Bull could be out of the money.Guess you know what happened.!

Here's one handicapper that couldn't read between his own lines-ME :confused: :D