Coin Silver a 99 Beyer

[cj]

Not too shabby, but probably not a serious win contender.

[rastajenk]

cj, I was wondering how you, and any of you other number crunchers out there, react to a day like Saturday at Keeneland, with a 25-length winner, a 12-length winner, a modest 6-length winner, 7 lengths then 22-more back to third, 21-1/2 back to third again...do you stick to formulas, or do you marvel at the weird shit going down and merely hope to produce meaningful stats?

I'm usually amused when people try to bash Beyers as unreliable, either by invoking a bias on the part of Andy himself, or accusing him of fuzzy math; I'm all right with taking them at face value, for the most part, and taking it from there. But occasionally there'll be a circumstance where pars and projections are out the window, and maybe the Beyer guys' collective wisdom missed the mark by just a bit.

What if the Lexington final time had been adjusted by less than a second more, say three- or four-fifths? Then Coin Silver gets about a 106; then Sort It Out gets the 99, Storm Surge gets a 91, Forever Wild gets an 80-something...and those are believable, consistent numbers down the line, including the poor effort by Rockport, in the 70's somewhere..

The big difference, of course, is that Coin Silver would move from mid-pack gate-filler to what you might call the second tier of legitimate contenders. Just 'cause a numbers producer may have been a little bamboozled by the bizarre Keeneland surface on Saturday.

Just a thought. I'm not claiming that Coin Silver is zooming up my Derby list, just that maybe there's some more of that late-inning Lexington magic than there first appears.

[Valuist]

Rastajenk-

One thing about the Beyers: he doesn't make them all. I think you can accept the Beyers at tracks like the NY tracks, GP, and the two prime Kentucky meets because either Andy or Mark Hopkins is doing them. Its when you get to the other circuits when you have to go over them with a fine tooth comb. FWIW, I think the 99 for Coin Silver is correct.

[cj]

Rastajenk-

You will get no argument from me that figure making can be very subjective. I do my best to get them right the first time, but occasionally I'll go back and change a variant. The one thing I do is check what the other "pro" figure makers have for tough day, Beyer, BRIS, and TG. My philosophy is if I can justify it, I will go against them, because that is where the money can be made. You can change later as I say, but usually it means you've lost a bet or missed an oppurtunity by the time you do that.

One example was Smarty Jones in the Rebel last year. Beyer gave a 106. I looked at that card many times, and their was no way in hell he should not have gotten around a 114. If Beyer had this big a number in the DRF, SJ pays 5.00 in the Derby instead of 10.

Anyway, for me at least, I keep it simple. Err on the side of bigger mutuels.

[46zilzal]

One example was Smarty Jones in the Rebel last year. Beyer gave a 106. I looked at that card many times, and their was no way in hell he should not have gotten around a 114. If Beyer had this big a number in the DRF, SJ pays 5.00 in the Derby instead of 10.
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Agree the Rebel promoted that one to the HEAD of the class, with Lion Heart the "contra-energy" colt

[Bobby]

cj,

I have a question.
I don't make figures. I used to dabble in them, but it just takes up too much of my time. Anyway, I know about variants and so forth, and this might be a stupid question, but why did you rate Alex's numbers so much lower than Beyer? No early pace.

Alex ran 2 tics faster than Smarty did last year for the Derby, and it appeared quite clear that it was the best race he'd ever run. Just curious. No criticism here.

[cj]

I didn't rate Alex's speed figure low at all, it was his overall number that I rated low due to, as you guessed, a VERY slow pace. I recommend ignoring these races if the horse has run better numbers in the past. Slow paced races are very poor inidicator's of a horse's ability on the dirt.

I think speed figure wise Beyer gave AA a 108, I actually have him a length faster at 110.

[Bobby]

I recommend ignoring these races if the horse has run better numbers in the past. Slow paced races are very poor inidicator's of a horse's ability on the dirt.
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Ok, thx.

That makes sense.