Keen 9th a 50-1?

[BIG RED]

Either I haven't been paying attention much lately, but haven't recalled a horse with a morning line of 50-1? Was doing keenlands 9th race, it's last of the day, and sometimes I go for a tri if it has a full feild. I came up with Spiro 4th or 5th maybe in that race. So, now I check the odds of the horses I like, and he's 50-1 ! Just stating haven't seen those king of ml odds for sometime for a horse?This has to be rare, or I've been goofing off to much.

[keilan]

Big, interesting call on the 50-1 ML bomb.

That horse doesn't show up on my radar in this field.

I'm leaning towards a $1 super play,

4-9-11/ 4-9-11/ 1-3-5-4-9-11/1-2-3-4-5-6-9-10-11 = $144.00


Hope I'm wrong about the bomb, cause your ticket would pay :)

[BIG RED]

I wasn't stating watch out for a huge one in the 9th. Maybe 4th or 5th and he still doesn't make the tri. I'm kind of asking when was the last time you seen a 50-1 in the morning line?
And good luck K

[OTM Al]

I catalog the morning lines in my db, in which I track all the east coast tracks plus the Keeneland meets and other races of interest, primarily stakes, from all over the country. I usually see maybe 1 or 2 50-1s a week, though usually at lower level tracks. Occasionally there will be an 80-1 in there, but not too often

[kenwoodallpromos]

Can you tell me which tracks have the lowest and which have the highest M/L's? Thank you.

[OTM Al]

Ken-

Not sure exactly what you mean there. Can give you frequency distributions for the tracks I follow if you like. At work now, so can send later.

[schweitz]

Can you tell me which tracks have the lowest and which have the highest M/L's? Thank you.


Tracks with low avg number of entrants per race = low m/l avg
Tracks with high avg number of entrants per race = high m/l avg

At least that would be my guess. ;)

[cj]

Worse Morning Line ever?

I'm looking at the 5 in the 8th at Pim, and start to get that tingle you get since I think he looks pretty good, and the ML is 30-1! I then look at the tote...7-2. That is a little off, eh?

[JustRalph]

Worse Morning Line ever?

I'm looking at the 5 in the 8th at Pim, and start to get that tingle you get since I think he looks pretty good, and the ML is 30-1! I then look at the tote...7-2. That is a little off, eh?

Was that a firster at 40-1? wow, what prices .........I don't have the program but I assume that was an overlooked firster that paid $88

[cj]

Yep, firster, 5f turf dash. I didn't even watch after I saw the odds with a few minutes to post, total crapshoot to me.

[BIG RED]

That was the one race at Pim I bet today, and no didn't have him, had a 5-1 that came in it's post position order (out).

[BIG RED]

By the way Spiro finished 7th ( I did say maybe :D )

[RXB]

Worse Morning Line ever?

I'm looking at the 5 in the 8th at Pim, and start to get that tingle you get since I think he looks pretty good, and the ML is 30-1! I then look at the tote...7-2. That is a little off, eh?

How about the 20/1 ML on the #1 horse in Beulah's 5th on Tuesday. Looked like a strong wire-to-wire possibility, was never really challenged... at 7/5.

[OTM Al]

ken, and anyone else curious, here is a tab delimited text file of morning line frequencies on east coast tracks. Each one is at least a year's worth of data if not 2 (NYRA tracks). I eliminated the odd balls (ie 7-1, 99-1) of which there were only one or two.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Thank you very much! That is exactly what I was looking for!
I notice some tracks' M/L makers are more willing to stretch the odds out to what they may feel is more realistic, like Suff and FL; I will study this!

[BIG RED]

Just seen another 50-1 shot at Pimlico today, so I guess I haven't been paying attention :bang: (this one does get a little mark from me)