Who's the Post-time Derby Favorite?

[Bobby]

My prediction is Bellamy Road, then Afleet Alex.

Is this a hard question?

[headhawg]

No, it's not hard -- Bellamy Road at 2-1. Probably the easiest favorite to predict since Fusaichi Pegasus.

[Suff]

My prediction is Bellamy Road, then Afleet Alex.

Is this a hard question?

More interesting , or at least, additional interest would be, what do you think This years Derby Favorite will go off as.

I'm thinking, 5-1 is not to crazy to think about. 3-1 or better is a lock..imho

[Bobby]

Yea, I'm thinking BR at MAYBE 3/1. More likely, 7/2. I think smarty wuz 4/1 last year.

I hope he's 2/1 cuz I'm gonna bet against him for the win.

[Bobby]

Bellamy Road's last 3 Beyers

72-96-120

That's got bounce written all over it.

But if he can get a 110 in the derby, he wins. I think he drops back to the low 100s or upper 90s

[Zaf]

I can't wait to bet against him.

ZAFONIC

[OTM Al]

If Rockport Harbor hits a fig in the area of 105-110 and wins by open lengths, he will be the favorite. The public will hammer that Smarty Jones connection. Otherwise, I agree with the original post.

[NYPlayer]

Bellamy Road's last 3 Beyers

72-96-120

That's got bounce written all over it.

But if he can get a 110 in the derby, he wins. I think he drops back to the low 100s or upper 90s

The sheet pattern is much, much better. The number in BR's GP win could win the Derby. His numbers as a 2yo were better than the Beyers he was given. He could prove to be quite an exceptional horse. I'd take 8-5 in the Derby, but I'm thinking about a triple.

[depalma13]

Bellamy Road at 9/5 followed by Afleet Alex at 5/2 Bandini and High Fly both around 7-1, the rest will all be double digits.

[headhawg]

The sheet pattern is much, much better. The number in BR's GP win could win the Derby. His numbers as a 2yo were better than the Beyers he was given. He could prove to be quite an exceptional horse. I'd take 8-5 in the Derby, but I'm thinking about a triple.

Did you bet on Sweet Catomine in the SA Derby? :confused:

[Suff]

Bellamy Road at 9/5 followed by Afleet Alex at 5/2 Bandini and High Fly both around 7-1, the rest will all be double digits.

Surprised you feel this way. The track was playing right into his style, and he beat 15 lengths of noboby. Worth favorite consideration.. But at 9/5 they're going to have to put a TON of weight on that WOOD Victory. And I cannot.

[Valuist]

Bellamy Road probably slightly under 2-1, maybe 9-5. But then nobody will be under 5-1. High Fly, Afleet Alex and Bandini all between 5-1 and 7-1. As high as the takeout is, there's no way you'll see Afleet Alex at 5-2 unless Bellamy Road scratches.

[Pace Cap'n]

If Smarty Jones, the hype-horse of the year, was the favorite at 4-1 (off the top of my head), would it be unrealistic to expect none of this year's crop will be under 3-1?

[lsbets]

What did Empire Maker go off at? I figure Bellamy Road will be the fav, followed by Afleet Alex. BR somewhere around 3-1, AA around 7-2.

[NYPlayer]

Did you bet on Sweet Catomine in the SA Derby? :confused:

No, I generally only play NY tracks, so I haven't viewed sheets for her yet, but I should have them for all Derby contenders next week. I usually don't bet chalk unless I feel it's absolutely worth it, which is rare, and 4-5 versus the boys is pretty bad price-wise. Still, what does price matter or what the figs are if the horse is sick and the trainer is lying about it? Had she been 3-1, my money would still have gone down the tubes. The same thing happened with Afleet Alex. I didn't bet him at 3-5 in the Rebel, but the horse was sick that day (supposedly they didn't know about it until after the race), and then he came right back in the AK Derby where he was 2-1.

If BR runs terribly in the Derby, I'd suspect larceny, but a horse who ran a number like he did in a Derby prep is damn good, and had we seen more of him earlier, it probably wouldn't have been a surprise.

[GeTydOn]

Empire Maker was $2.50-1 in his Derby.

Bellemy Road has captured everyone's imagination. He will be the favorite regardless of whatever Rockport Harbor does.

Bellemy Road will not go off below 3-1.

[PaceAdvantage]

I agree with GTO....

Bellamy Road is going to be the favorite, and under 3-1....probably 9-5 by the time the gate opens.

Smarty Jones still had a LOT of nonbelievers coming from Arkansas and all....

This horse is a ZITO horse who won the WOOD MEMORIAL in RECORD time. This carries a LOT of weight at the windows come Derby Time.

[headhawg]

...I usually don't bet chalk unless I feel it's absolutely worth it, which is rare, and 4-5 versus the boys is pretty bad price-wise. Still, what does price matter or what the figs are if the horse is sick and the trainer is lying about it? Had she been 3-1, my money would still have gone down the tubes.

Price always matters as you have to make your bet before the race is run. (Well, most of us do, anyway.) At 4-5 she was a definite bad bet, and maybe even at 3-1 (certainly for me she would have been).

I think that 8-5 is way too low to take on any horse in this year's Derby.

[46zilzal]

So many three year olds get almost forgotten because they take a misstep on the way to the big dance. Remember when Unbridled had a less than stellar Blue Grass (bad trip and in tight down the strech), and the "last-line-itis" folks forgot all that quality and dimissed this one the first Satruday in May. I believe Thudner Gulch fit the same pattern. I seem to recall that his Florida Derby put in right in the thick of things, but his prep right before the Derby was not perfect, so this onE was relegated to longer odds much to the chagrin of the crowd.

[michiken]

About this time of the year I always get the similar feeling that there is a 'dark horse' who's trainer has been deliberately holding back and hiding the horses intent. Do you remember the year that Indian Charlie was so overhyped and Real Quiet won?

I wish every race that I bet had the huge field size and media blitz that comes along with the derby. With the large pools, I can see a favorite being 3-1 or 7-2 easily but I am almost for sure I will bet against him. C'mon this is the Derby!

Once we can wade the the media BS, I think we all we find some value in other horses. If Imperialism wasn't dodging traffic last year, he would of given me a better perfecta with Smarty! I just loved the way that Sea Hero won too as he brings back profitable memories.

[frankfig]

Bellamy Road will be a Big favorite,everyone knows that. But i am telling you Bandini will be second choice instead of Afleet Alex ! Public Opinion -????????Pletcher/Velasquez or Ritchey/Rose. Also FU PEG breeding on Bandini.There is NO question Bandini will be a shorter price then Af alex !!!! That you can take to the bank ! By the way i wont be betting any of the three unless Bandini drifts above 6or7-1

[Jinxed]

BANDINI. It sure doesn't mean he will win, but I think he will be the favorite. The cautious will be leery of Rose riding Afleet Alex, so I don't think he will be the favorite. Bellamy Road will be a favorite also, and well deserving.

:)

[rastajenk]

You think Rose beat the hell out of Alex, too. When was the last time you were right? No way Bandini is even close to Bellamy in the odds column. Unless you call 5-1 or 6-1 close to 2-1 or less. I don't.

[Speed Figure]

Who cares who's the favorite, like picking who's going to be the favorite is a big deal.

[JPinMaryland]

I dont think there's anyway Bellamy Rd. goes down to 2-1; not as long as Afleet ALex is in the race.

My guess is Bellamy Rd. 3-1; Afleet Alex 4-1.

That leaves probably High Fly at 8 or 9-1; Bandini probably 10-1 or so.

If Alex was out for some reason, then maybe Bellamy Rd goes down to 2-1 or less.

[Bruddah]

It's just my hymble opinion, but I don't think Bellamy Road will finish any better than third.(show) My intuition says really no better than fourth(4th). Can we say BIG BOUNCE will be riding that horse's back on Derby Day. :bang:

[classhandicapper]

I've been told the track changed speed on the day of Bellamy Road's GP race. That accounts for the difference between the TG figure and the Beyer figure. IMHO, the Beyer figure is actually correct. B.R. blew out those weaker horses on the front end (running a pace too fast for them but OK for him) in the GP race. I'd be willing to bet anything that TG (which doesn't look at pace at all when projecting figures) assumed a slower track than Beyer did because they couldn't rationalize how slow some of the other horses behind BR had run. If you assume a slower track to pump up those other horses, you also have to assume that BR ran faster. That makes his sheet look a little better, but I think the reality is much more likely to be that Beyer got that GP race right.

[socantra]

Who cares who's the favorite, like picking who's going to be the favorite is a big deal.

Knowing how your opponent thinks is an essential skill in any contest.

In handicapping, the crowd is your opponent and the crowd picks the favorite.


socantra...

[JPinMaryland]

YEs I agree Socan. but I've seen cogent arguments put forth that say the tote board is irrelevant!

One argument can be made that due to the time delay in tote board updates, you can never know for sure what the final odds will be...I guess.

What struck me the other day was the race with Bandini in it. Just a few minutes to post, the chalk horses were all 5-2. All three. Right? Bandini, sunking and the other one I guess. THey went off like that, as far as I recall.

But Bandini wound up getting 4-1 odds. WHich to me would seem they finished about where it should be. After all he hadnt won in stakes company yet.

But it just had me thinking as I watched it: "5-2; 5-2; 5-2. How can that be? "

[chickenhead]

Bellamy Road will be a Big favorite,everyone knows that. But i am telling you Bandini will be second choice instead of Afleet Alex ! Public Opinion -????????Pletcher/Velasquez or Ritchey/Rose. Also FU PEG breeding on Bandini.There is NO question Bandini will be a shorter price then Af alex !!!! That you can take to the bank ! By the way i wont be betting any of the three unless Bandini drifts above 6or7-1

I think they'll be something like:

1)Bellamy Road
2)Afleet Alex
3)HighFly
4)Bandini
5)High Limit


BR and AA close together 2/1-3/1...HF and BD grouped together somewhere 4/1-6/1 range, HL (and/or GG) 7/1-8/1.

No way Bandini favored over BR, monster Beyer and Wood romp, Alex is popular, big Ark Beyer and been fast for awhile now, and the crowd will give the nod to High Fly Bailey and Zito over Bandini.

Noble Causeway will be the wise guy this year, breeding and Stevens and late bloomer with the big late run in a speedy race.....

[chickenhead]

I think they'll be something like:

1)Bellamy Road
2)Afleet Alex
3)HighFly
4)Bandini
5)High Limit


BR and AA close together 2/1-3/1...HF and BD grouped together somewhere 4/1-6/1 range, HL (and/or GG) 7/1-8/1.

No way Bandini favored over BR, monster Beyer and Wood romp, Alex is popular, big Ark Beyer and been fast for awhile now, and the crowd will give the nod to High Fly Bailey and Zito over Bandini.

Noble Causeway will be the wise guy this year, breeding and Stevens and late bloomer with the big late run in a speedy race.....

these odds across the board are a little low...while my own line will be about 100% for these guys, I doubt the public's will :)

proportionally though that's how I see the public sending them off....

[Princequillo]

A recent DRF poll running from April 24-28 asked the following question: "Who is your early selection to win the Kentucky Derby?" Their top ten horses for the Derby were given as choices along with the category "Other." The poll did not account for the Lexington, but any horses fininishing in that race could have been voted in "Other."

The poll result in votes is available on the DRF homepage under Archives. Following are the Derby Odds. I converted the votes to odds and included a 20 percent takeout.

Afleet Alex - 5-2
Bellamy Road - 3-1
Bandini - 9-2
Noble Causeway - 10-1
Wilco - 12-1
High Fly - 15-1
Sun King - 15-1
High Limit - 30-1
Buzzards Bay - 40-1
Greeley's Galaxy - 40-1
(Other) - 10-1

6,250 votes were registered. Trends toward the end indicated late strength for Afleet Alex, Bandini, and Noble Causeway, and a drop for Bellamy Road. Some major workouts ( including AA at 59 flat breezing at CD) were within the poll's close. Some plus factoring can be made for Greeley's Galaxy since it was questionable if he would get in. The dropoff for Bellamy Road could reflect the 5-week layoff.

Repetative voting was not possible. I believe Derby Day odds will be very close to the poll results. Any surprise?

[JPinMaryland]

Very interesting poll. I guess you can use that to predict which horses might drop in odds, if you can figure the psychology of it all.

I think if I can Bellamy Road at 3-1 I'd take it in a heartbeat and maybe not ever worry about an exacta or a longshot. Just put it all on Bellamy Rd.

It's interesting that Bandini did better in this poll than the impromptu poll we have here. It might suggest that Bandini might drop in odds as post time approaches...or maybe not. Depends on the psychology at work.

At 4-1 or whatever, I dont like Bandini. I like him but not at those odds. To place? Yeah maybe bet him to place.


Oh Sun King seems to be higher than what our poll figured, I guess. Maybe that means his odds will rise throughout the day as people think about him. At 15-1, I think I'd drop some bucks on him. Hell that's a pretty good horse for a 15-1 payoff. I think his odds probably drop lower than that on derby day.

[OTM Al]

That's some nice work! Greeley is still a bit of a wildcard in the mix. If he's out, then this is pretty close to what could be expected to happen (though remember that a lot of not bettors money will be funneled in as well, but it could be guessed that it will cancel out) Greeley in though could well skew this a bit

[JPinMaryland]

Why does Greeley skew it? Because he's a front runner? Hmmm. It seems that the pace this year will be pretty hot. With another front runner in the mix...?

[OTM Al]

Skews the odds is what I mean. In, and now he looks that way, I would not expect him to be at 40-1, but 10-1 or maybe better. This would cause some shifting in these odds as when the picks were made, it was unknown that he would be in.

[chickenhead]

those odds are very close to mine, except for High Fly. If HF goes off at 15-1 he wil take some of my money with him.

[Skanoochies]

Sun King and High Fly getting the same action. Do you think so? I think High Fly will be no worse than fourth fav. and a lot lower than Sun King. Very interesting though, thanks for posting that poll.

[Princequillo]

High Fly actually received 301 votes to Sun King's 289. As a matter of record, Afleet Alex garnered 1509 votes compared to Belamy Road's 1346.

I too believe High Fly is an attractive bet at 15-1. When the actual betting starts, I think his odds will drop. Wilco is the interesting horse here. Those 12-1 odds are on the flattering side, and it shows the public will not forget the BC Juvenile.

[Princequillo]

Correction - Bellamy Road received 1375.

[Bobby]

I think about any of those zito horses above 10-1 with the exception of Anamaderos Hero is a good bet.

I can understand why AA would be the favorite - his figures are fairly consistent. Bellamy Rd, who will be getting a bet from me at 3-1, speed figures are 70s to 120.

[JPinMaryland]

..In, and now he looks that way, I would not expect him to be at 40-1, but 10-1 or maybe better. This would cause some shifting in these odds as when the picks were made, it was unknown that he would be in.

OH yes on the odds line. Yes, of course. 40-1 is too high obviously.