Calder Tote

[highnote]

OK. So I just watched the tote for the 7th at Calder. #6 was the favorite in the place and show throughout and #1 was second choice. However, #1 was the win pool favorite. #1 was a Dr. Z bet until the last few minutes then got bet down heavily. On the last flash of the tote before going "OFF" #8 became a Dr. Z bet. He only had $522 bet to show on him, compared to abour $1,400 on the others (I think. I'm doing this from memory). The tote flashed "OFF". I thought to myself, if I couldn've gotten a bet down on the #8 at the last flash it would still pay $3.40 to show even with the two favorites in the money. I also thought that if I was going to bet an exacta I'd box 1 and 6. I didn't handicap the race. I only watched the tote.

Then there was a second update after the betting ended. #8 took over $800 more to show. Clearly, someone has the ability to get bets down at the very last moment -- and maybe even last nanosecond. It's also interesting to note how quickly Calder made the race official and got the new tote data up for the next race - erasing the data from race 7.

The final result 6-1-8. That's two races today I've watched from Calder where the tote provided clues. Obviously, you'd need to study hundres of races to make any conclusions, but it might be worth studying.

I've got software that saves the totedata at each flash, maybe I'll do just that. I'd be happy to supply data to anyone who wants to study it.

John Swetye

[highnote]

OK. Now I'll examine the 8th. 12 MTP and #4 is the fav. He's got $63 to show. #5 is has $189 to show and is 4.64-1.

10 MTP #4 took 90 more to show and is not at $153.
8-4-2 is the betting order of favs. 2-8-5-4 is the show order. 8-4-2-5 is the place order.

8 MTP. 4 is still second choice to win, but 4th choice to show. It will be interesting to see what he does as post nears. I'd be leary of him at this point, even though he's nearly a Dr. Z system bet. He bet to win, but underbet to show.

6 MTP. Not much change. I expect that people at the track are leaving the paddock now and making their last minutes decisions. The money will start pouring in.

4 MTP. 8 taking lots of place money. Still the fav. 2 is second choice and 4 dropped to third in both the win and show pools, thought 4 is still 2nd place in the place pool.

2 MTP. If the first 3 favs hit the board the payoffs will only be 2.10. 4 drops to 3rd choice in all the straight pools.

Post Time. Still 8-2-4. Pretty boring so far. Only a 5 horse field. 8-2 will pay 2.80 and 3.00 respectively if they run 1-2.

OFF - first flash. 8 -4190 place and 1607 show. 2 -3713 and 1088. 4 -3030 861.

OFF - second flash. 8 - 9180 3376, 2 -7274 1815. 4 -5830 1477.

Nothing suspicious in this race. If I had to bet I'd box 8-2-4 in the exacta. I wouldn't be surprised if some longshot jumped up for second to knock me out. This race is taking a long time to become official compared to the last race.

A few minutes have gone by and still not official.

It's official. 8-4-2. Again, the tote provided some clues.

I just realized how this looks like Red Boarding. But what the heck. It's kind of fun trying to predict the races with a "crystal ball".

[PaceAdvantage]

I can't speak for anyone else, but I find this kind of stuff fascinating....thanks for taking the time to post this....


==PA

[JustRalph]

I've got software that saves the totedata at each flash, maybe I'll do just that. I'd be happy to supply data to anyone who wants to study it.



I would be interested in the software you are using to record the tote etc.

[highnote]

The software isn't anywhere near finished -- that's why I only offered so send some data. When I get some collected I'll be happy to pass it along.

I guess I made that offer a little prematurely. I just got interested in the tote postings by other people and thought this might be a way to better understand the dynamics of today's betting markets.

[highnote]

The other problem I just realized is that there's so much data. Not sure how to organize it or present it. Any thoughts on how you'd like to see it presented?

I just checked out the program that will save the data. The user interface is pretty bad. I only wrote the program for my own use never thinking anyone else would use it. But now that I've made the offer I'll put some effort into it. Let me know your thoughts and suggestions. Thanks.

John Swetye