Monday Nite Redboard

[michiken]

Since Mondays offer so few tracks to play, I thought it might be nice to have a little 'pickem' contest.

Sometimes I find it useful to review old races - a process called 'redboarding'. This race was one longshot that I had and it will involve some out of the box thinking!

Anyone who wants to partake in this Monday Nite Redboard is welcome to post their pick here in this thread.

The race for you to handicap is enclosed in the pdf attached and uses bris speed and pace figs.

I will post the actual results later in the week.



Good Luck!

[Zaf]

My guess would be the #1. Good turn time last out, decent speed fig. Maybe he stalks the pace with a ground saving trip and squeezes thru somehow.'


ZAFONIC

[Tom]

I agree - the #1 becasue it is at CT, and the outside posts probably will hurt the others.

[chickenhead]

I also like the 1. Gimme $20WP.

[grahors]

I'll take the 9...best pace and spd.

[EQUIPACE]

Michicken,
Surely a fun post for all....
Interesting race with one going long, two shortening up...
I see only the 1, 9, & 10 as possible win contenders.

After looking the 3 contenders over, all EP race types... I have to agree with
the majority... The 1 would be my choice. 9 & 10 should get caught up in a speed duel... leaving the 1 pressing them into submission. :)

John
~¿o

[EQUIPACE]

"Michicken,
Surely a fun post for all....
Interesting race with one going long, two shortening up...
I see only the 1, 9, & 10 as possible win contenders.
After looking the 3 win contenders over, all EP race types... I have to agree with the majority... The 1 would be my choice. 9 & 10 should get caught up in a speed duel... leaving the 1 pressing them into submission."


I should have said two going longer & two Shortening up.
I'll still key the 1, with 3,8,9,10 with 3,8,9,10 in the
Tri For $24. With a Win wager on the 1.

John
~¿o

[jeebus1083]

I would have to go with the #3 on the stretch-out. Showed some OK speed going shorter... let's see if this beast can keep it going longer.


ex 3/1-2-5-9

[michiken]

Ok Racefans, its time to reveal the winner of the Monday Nite Redboard Pickem Contest!

Sorry to say that none of you picked the winner but jeebus1083 was close.

Here is how I analyzed the pace figs. (Cut me some slack cause it involved out of the box thinking). Ok, warped method of thinking.

First of all, I am going to calculate turn time and deceleration ratings for each horse and give my impressions. Note that I only use the 2f/4f/6f figures for horses cutting back from routes. Because this race was at Charlestown, you have to consider that 7 furlong races are run around 2 turns and the 1 1/16 shown in the original numbers was run around 3 turns.

Turn Time was calculated by subtracting the 2f pace fig from the 4f pace fig.
Accel/Decel was calculated by subtracting the 4f pace fig from either the 6f pace fig or Speed Fig .

1 +5 TT, -18 Decel
2 +0 TT (71-71), +6 Accel (77-71)
3 Due to the 4.5 distance, only a decel/turn time can be calculated (84-85) = -1
4 -2 TT, 0 Decel
5 +1 TT, -13 Decel
6 4.5 f last race again, Decel = -4
7 +4 TT, -11 Decel
8 +5 TT, -4 Decel
9 -1 TT, -7 Decel

Ok now lets run thru the field.

1) - I noticed that almost all of you chose the 1 for this contest. If you look at the pacegraph, it was good that you notice the +5 turn time spike but you did not see the downward -18 decel - the worst in the field? (I hope that you connected the dots) - Pace Mix but Non-contender in my mind. Off odds = 6.3

2) I noticed the interesting cutback and like the +6 accel rating (remember this was calculated between the 4 and 6f points). If the jock rated the horse for the stretch, his accel could be appropriate to the 7 furlong distance. Off odds = 31.1

3) Usually I don't like short speedsters stretching out more than a furlong. The -1 decel indicated that this horse may have enough to save in the tank for the stretch. Mild Contender and was worth a consideration at Off Odds = 4.80

4) From the graph, turn time shows downward spike, accel is flat. Early pace figs not too much to write home about. Pass at Off Odds = 16.30

5) Another decelerator with -13 downward spike from the chart going 6.5 furlongs. I did not think that the added distance would help. Off Odds = 6.9

6) Decel -4 at 4.5 furlongs. I like the 3 better stretching out. Pass at Off Odds = 20.5

7) Early pace contender with nice 4f fig, nice Turn Time of +4. Nice that he ran 7 furs last time too. Decel was middle of the field at -11. I pegged this one as a contender IF he could get the lead. Off Odds = 2.10 as the Favorite but is he legit??????????

8) Paceline shows the horse dropping off a mile 70 at Aqueduct. Why is this horse running at Charlestown for other than the inflated purses? Running style of E also suggests that he will need the lead to win. Am I seeing a speed duel with the 7 and 9? The crowd is providing modest support probably because of the Big A paceline, I have seen too many 'fire sales' going on at the graveyard to the class A tracks. Pass at Odds = 7.40

9) An E/P horse with both the best 4f time and speed figure. Question was would this horse be able to reproduce this race. A -1 Turn Time and -7 Final indicated to me that he was speed duel melting potential because there are other horses in this field with better numbers. Notice that the pace chart shows a negative downward trend for all of his numbers at 6.5 f? The crowd was supporting at a mild 5.7 to one but in my mind this horse was overbet. Use in pers but I think he is beatable.

In my analysis, I saw somewhat of a speed duel brewing by horses that had marginal decel ratings. The 1, 7, 8 and 9 all appeared to be early pace contenders. As I remember, all 4 of these horses vied for the lead tiring each other out. From the numbers, I loved the 2 horses spike at 6f furlongs even though he was cutting back in distance. Honestly, I put him over the 1,3,7,8,9 in my bet both back and forth. Regretted not playing the tri or super though as you can see the results below.

You will be surprised to see that the 2 horse won showing the LOWEST speed figure (but some nice internal fraction indicators). The 3 ran second topping off a $306 per. Here are the results (http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant.cgi?type=inr&country=USA&track=CT&date=2005-04-13&race=8):

As a consolation prize, you can drown your sorrows because they are already married (http://www.suffolkotb.com/images/promotions/tv55_beulahtwins.wmv).

Point of this post was/is to here all the critiques from you guys or offer a little angle to watch at CT. :-) Hope you all had fun.


:cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool:

[Tom]

OK....Monday again.

Time for another Red Board, anyone?

Last week's was fun.

BTW, Michicken.....great idea, and thanks for sharing your method with us.

[jeebus1083]

I'd love to see Michiken do this again. That was fun.

[michiken]

Wow! Nothing like digging up a 4 year old thread....

[jeebus1083]

Yeah, but it was definitely fun exercise to do.

Any chance of doing it again in the future?