3 YO crop

[Valuist]

All of a sudden, it doesn't look subpar at all. Since we usually hear that comment mentioned during Derby week, I thought should be pointed out this crop definitely isn't weak. Usually there isn't nearly as many blowout wins as we've seen this year: Bellamy Road, Afleet Alex, Blues and Royals, Greeley's Galaxy, and for the most part, Bandini. The Derby winner figures to be one of those five but I wouldn't be shocked if the other four all ended up off the board, getting passed by plodders who are just hoping to get a check.

[OTM Al]

Its definitely not weak...I'd say an evenly matched group of pretty much average overall ability compared to the last several years. What we don't have this year is a long term absolute standout....though Alex does appear to be back.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Yes some are winning by wide margins; Should make for a good derby audience. But the bad news is so many are falling by the wayside. I point to your listing of Blues and Royals as a prime example.
Seems to be legs, feet and lungs.

[Valuist]

I do think the best prep, top to bottom, was definitely the Blue Grass.

[cj]

The Blue Grass was a decent race. A very fast pace, so Bandini might come in a little overrated, but he was impressive nonetheless. The Ark Derby is not as good in my opinion. The pace was very, very slow. Greater Good could be a horse to put in the 3 and 4 slots in the Derby. He ran about 1 1/4 miles being very wide, and with his style, had no shot given that and the total lack of pace. I would still rate Bellamy Road's Wood as the best prep overall.

[Valuist]

Definitely agree on BR. There is a possibility of a bounce, but he could still bounce and win. I do think Afleet Alex is a stronger bounce candidate, coming off a respiratory infection and a poor effort to a giant race. I think I may leave AA out of my tri tickets.

[TOOZ]

Spanish Chestnut and Bandini have the exact same owners. You saw how Spanish Chestnut ran right to the front, making sure High Yield and Consolidator was not going to get the lead in that race. I don't believe in coincidences like that. Maybe Sun King is not as good as all the hype, but in my opinion Johhny V. gave one tremendous ride, definitely outrode Prado, because I believe Prado should have been where Johhny was.

[frankfig]

Am i the only one that thinks Sun King wide or not was not going to be a factor in the Blue Grass ? Give me a break with Zito cryin after the race ! The horse didnt loose by 3 or 4 leghnts, he was beaten SOUNDLY by better horses. I guess if he saved ground he would have only lost by 6 or 7 ! Zito should be counting his blessings and quit cryin like a little school girl !

[cj]

Being wide wasn't a bad thing at all at Keeneland this weekend. I wouldn't go so far as to say the rail was bad, but most winners this weekend were well off the rail.

Hell, even Clock Stopper was able to win!

[Houndog]

After looking over the charts for the Bluegrass and the Arkansas Derby I would have to agree with CJ that the pace for the Arkansas Derby was slow. That type of pace scenario will not happen in the Kentucky Derby. I thought Afleet Alex was pretty much the only real early speed in the race, and was kept close enough to really kick in.

The Bluegrass on the other hand had a really honest pace. The fractions I thought were quite good on a track that appeared to me to be a little on the slow side. I would contrast this to Aqueduct in which on Wood Memorial day the track was very fast. This is not to take anything away from the Wood Memorial winner as a 1:47 1/5 is a great time no matter what.

[michiken]

Somehow Churchill always finds room to stuff 20 or so horses in the gate whether they are worthy or not. This is why the Derby can be a handicapper's nightmare or big payday - I hope the latter for all.

What do you think the pace scenario will be for this Derby? A front running/close to the pace victory or a traffic jam for closers to pass in the stretch?

[rrbauer]

I don't find "blowout wins" evidence of a strong crop. I find them evidence of a weak crop. You have a couple decent 3YO blowing away their competition, how is that a strong crop?

[rrbauer]

If you saw SUN KING stagger home in the Tampa Bay Derby after getting a lollypop trip then you aren't excited about his prospects going forward especially when they include going longer.

As to the big numbers being rolled in the recent prep races, there is always the bounce factor. Trainers with past success of getting a horse to move forward in the Derby preps and keep it moving forward on Derby Day are a key part of the equation now. Getting a horse to come back in three weeks and run another top while going another furlong is no easy task.

[DerbyTrail]

If you saw SUN KING stagger home in the Tampa Bay Derby after getting a lollypop trip then you aren't excited about his prospects going forward especially when they include going longer.

As to the big numbers being rolled in the recent prep races, there is always the bounce factor. Trainers with past success of getting a horse to move forward in the Derby preps and keep it moving forward on Derby Day are a key part of the equation now. Getting a horse to come back in three weeks and run another top while going another furlong is no easy task.

Derby winners generally DON'T run new tops. They pair up.

[Valuist]

RRB-

I don't know if its a particularly strong group but I feel it isn't a weak one. I remember seeing some years where only one or two horses could hit a 105 Beyer going into the race. One things for sure: we haven't seen many 120s in preps.

[rastajenk]

I know it's tempting to grade a crop as good, bad, or somewhere in between, as early as possible. Kind of like labelling a high-school basketball player the next Michael Jordan (or Lebron James), or giving a college football player a future place in Canton. But give them a few more months, when all the self-serving hubris and hyperbole have died down somewhat, and they have more of a record to show for it. I think there are some potentially good ones out there, but right now they are all just flashes-in-the-pan; have to see what the second half of the year brings.

Take last year: sure, Smarty Jones was very nice. But the rest were the most evenly-matched underachievers I can ever remember. They did nothing at all in the run-up to the Classic; even now, Eddington and Rock Hard Ten are the only ones in the upper echelon, and even they're just average nice. Now that was a poor crop. :sleeping:

[TRM]

Derbytrail,

Could you please explain the "pair up"? and is it a good thing as far as future form is concerned?

Thanks.

[Valuist]

Rastajenk-

I think it serves a point to get as good a handle as early as possible on a crop or a particular group of horses. If I come to the conclusion that on a circuit a particular class level is weak, I'm going to look for class risers, droppers or ship ins. With a 3YO crop that's considered weak, I'll look for the new kid moving up in class. After Smarty Jones and Birdstone, last year's 3YO crop wasn't very good. I'd label it subpar. When you see horses like Love of Money successfully handle the jump from NW1X to Penn Derby that tells you the quality isn't overwhelming. That certainly wasn't the only 3YO that successfully made the jump into graded stakes. As of right now, I don't think it will be as easy this year, barring significant injuries.