The oft-raced maiden

[Valuist]

Most handicapping books and thought processes say to automatically eliminate these oft-raced maidens. It certainly makes sense most of the time but should they be automatically discarded without looking further into the race? I say no. What are the factors to look for? I believe there are several:

1. The field must be, in the handicappers opinion, poor for the class level. There is no way to numerically define it; its just common sense.

2. If the horse has quite a few races, say 15 or more, they must qualify in either one of two criteria: either the top last race figure at a similar distance, or the top back figure within the past year at a similar distance.

3. The horse must never have been a beaten favorite. If a horse had been racing over its head, and going off a solid odds, it wasn't expected to win anyways, so it shouldn't be held against it. Maybe its finally now in an appropriate spot. The majority of these horses who appear to be contenders in a race but have numerous starts usually fail here. Most of them are money burners and should be avoided.

Had I kept a more open mind today and not automatically eliminated a 0 for 19 colt in the last race at Hawthorne, I would've snagged part of that $3500 and change P4. While 0 for 19, the horse did have the top last race Beyer in what was a bad field. He also had never been a beaten favorite, had 10 of his losses on turf, was trained by solid trainer Rebecca Maker, and had shipped in from the Fair Grounds; a track notorious for getting winners when they ship to other venues.

[Zaf]

I will play a poor maiden (0 for 8) or worse under 2 conditions.

1) Must have a good performance fig.

2) Odds must be very very good.

ZAFONIC

[Steve 'StatMan']

I got beat by that horse too. This was the first start with Rebecca Maker. Previously had been trained by Michael Doyle. You're right, she is a good, solid young trainer. Doyle started training within the last couple of years, was a jockey before that. I guess the experience, plus finding a good spot to place the horse, made the difference.

On the other hand, I did make a $20 Win-Place wager on the Race 3 winner, Leawood, that paid $22.20 to win. Not a big field, only 6 horses in an IL Bred MSW. Slower than normal Beyer and McMannis figures for this level, and those near the pace had been in slow paced races. Leawood 'raced' only 1 time, in the mud. PPS say 'No Speed, outrun' but Scott had a note that said 'Broke Awkwardly'. I noticed the bullet workout after the troubled debut, and decided that the horse deserved a 'Mulligan', to use a golf term, esp. against this weak bunch. Went straight to the lead and wired them. This time, at least, this strategy paid off. Not something I'd want to bet the farm on, but I was willing to risk a couple of goats. :)

[Valuist]

Most of the time, these horses just won't qualify as playable. But that Rebecca Maker horse was very usable. I was alive with 3 horses and feel like an idiot for not using this one. The P3 for the first three legs paid $772 (for $2). The bottom line: thinking in general terms should be avoided, as should words like "never" or "always" to a handicapper.

Steve-how do you like McMannus' numbers?

[Steve 'StatMan']

I really like McMannis' speed figs and trip notes. Admittely, I'm a bit biased since I built my main handicapping style around his methods. I could write a lot, but for this post at least, I'll keep it brief. He only does them for the Chicago races (AP & HAW). His turf figures are a specialty. No pace figures, but he does note the faster and slower paces so you can take them into account. Being local and onsite, and having his own trip notes, he can take more things into account when making his variant. Feel free to PM me (open invite) for more details.

[Tom]

0 for 8 is "poor maide???


Z, you have been to Finger Lakes. We call them potential futurity winners! LOL!
Seriously, while Zippy Chippy gets all the press, he mioght wll loe his 100-loos crown. We have others who are hot on his tail. It is not uncommon to see horses here 0 for 20+, 30+, etc, then the 1 for 55 bunch.
What do you call an 0 for 35 NTS Bred madien shipping in from Belmont who lost his last three races by a combined 100 lengths?
The 3-5 favorite!

:lol: Oh, I kill myself sometimes!:lol:

[Zaf]

What do you call an 0 for 35 NTS Bred madien shipping in from Belmont who lost his last three races by a combined 100 lengths?
The 3-5 favorite!


:lol: :lol: :lol:

ZAFONIC

[JohnGalt1]

These maidens could be played in different ways.

The 8 seconds 4 thirds in 15 races maiden maybe should not be bet to win, their odds are usually too low, but could be included under win bets in tris and supers and included in pick 3's, 4's, and 6's. Especially if included with longshots in other legs.

[maxwell]

Some of these types are decent trifecta plays; they don't want to be in front but they don't mind hanging out up there.If the winner runs a 50 Beyer, they run 45. If the winner runs 65, they run 60. :bang:

Some of them hit the board an amazing number of times, however.

[Valuist]

I think I found an example today that fits fairly well: 6th at Hawthorne, number 1 Lake John. He's 0 for 12 with 1 second and 3 thirds. Its a M10000 so we're not talking about great horses in here. The top sprint fig earned by anyone in the race was a 52 by I'm a Kipper Too 3 starts back but Lake John has run a 50 and 51 in his last 2 sprints so he fits numbers-wise. He's been around 7-2 twice but has never actually been favored. On Mar 29 he was bumped at the start and raced 4 wide on a track you didn't want to be wide on. Then he went 1 1/16 and was forced to try and close on a loose gate to wire winner. There's one class dropper in here but he's a 2nd timer who's been off over a full year. As for price, in this 6 horse field, Sweep has Lake John listed 4th and not one of the DRF's cappers has him listed in the top 2. Prime win bet? No, but I will use him on my P3 tickets.

[Doc]

Years ago (1991) I wrote an article for the now-defunct Metro Turf about perennial losers. I remember using as an example a mare called Sally Blue who was 0-for-78 or something, but kept getting hammered at the windows because she would often finish second, third, etc. Sometimes these kind of horses just don't get it...they have no competitive fire and just plod around the track. I usually eliminate any maiden that's started more than 15 times without a win...unless they're taking a plunge from special-weight company to the bottom claiming price. Even then they don't always come through.

Doc

[betovernetcapper]

In todays's 5th at Haw, the 5-2 morning line favorite is Catchyounextime. He's run 13 times with 8 seconds and 1 third. His jockey-trainer combo is 0 for 7 and his trainer is 3 for 59 at Haw with an ROI of .35. I'm not really in love with anything in this race, but if he's well bet may take a chance angainst him. :)

[Valuist]

Lake John had his chance yesterday. I'm now ready to concede that it will probably be awhile before he does break his maiden, and when he does, it will be as an underlay.