View Full Version : The Week that will be.
I'm pessimistic about the nations Economy. I've been posting as such for a couple of weeks. Much of 2005, and perhaps 2006 & 7 will be mapped out this week. Huge week.
First of all. April 15th. The Govt got paid this week. They'll be counting they're money with great furor starting tomorrow. The one stat that reeks of trouble is the US T Bill. The short term investment vehicle the Govt uses to pay its most pressing bills. Last year at this time it was .94 on a 90 day T Bill. Its now nearing 3%. Our Credit sucks and we're paying a Premium to borrrow money in the short term. A lot of these instruments are bought by Foriegn Govt's. In this case. China and Japan. Who's economies are Screaming Along while ours Limps. We pay them 2.64% (APR) on a short term 90 day note.
See Time Graph
http://www.marketvector.com/interest-rate/90-day-t-bill.htm
Again, nearly triple (or double, depending how you look at it) what we paid this time last year. We need a big jump in Revenue, and The Tax cuts that were supposed to (and may have) jump started our economy need to start working. Or we need to reconsider this administrations economic theories. (imho)
And on the Corporate side, this is whats on tap this week.
April 17 2005 to April 21st 2005.
Almost a third of the companies in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index and almost half the 30 companies that make up the Dow Jones industrial average are to report earnings for the first three months of the year. But more importantly, many of them will comment on the financial quarters ahead and could either counter or reinforce the current pessimism about the economy. (www.nytimes.com) front page story.
And to make it even more interesting.. I believe this Friday is a "triple witching" friday...when Commodity and Equity Options expire on Both sides of Puts & Calls.
Hold on to your Hat America. We might be in for a ride.
PaceAdvantage
04-19-2005, 12:56 AM
Texas Instruments saves the day....
Suff, always buy when everyone else is selling, and always sell when everyone else is buying....the catch of course, is timing....LOL
Texas Instruments saves the day....
Suff, always buy when everyone else is selling, and always sell when everyone else is buying....the catch of course, is timing....LOL
I was careful to leave the door open for a positive week. Eli Lily & Bank of America (NOI +75%) led to a positive buying mood in the morning.
After the Bell, Coca-Cola, Pfizer and Viacom reported poor results. So we'll see what the tempature is @ 9:30
Nothing would please me more than a good week. Some of the fundementals are really troubling however. If The Dollar gets any weaker...? The debt.
Markets trading at a reasonable multiple right now. Probably half of what it was in the early to mid 90's. If the Fundementals were there, coupled with earnings growth, there is room for trading significantly higher.
Lets see how the rest of the week shakes out
PaceAdvantage
04-19-2005, 05:52 PM
First TI, now Intel saves the markets....
Dow futures up 50 points after Intel earnings release....
First TI, now Intel saves the markets....
Dow futures up 50 points after Intel earnings release....
Yahoo Inc.'s first-quarter profit doubled as the Internet powerhouse continued to ride a rising tide of online advertising.
The Sunnyvale-based company said Tuesday that it earned $204.6 million, or 14 cents per share, during the three months ended in March. That compared with net income of $101.2 million, or 7 cents per share at the same time last year.
I saw some strength in Technology Mon & Tues.. And if we could get another rally that includes TECH stocks... Thats a wave with some legs.
DJIA 10,127.41 + 56.16
Nasdaq 1,932.36 + 19.44
S&P 500 1,152.78 + 6.80
On the anecdotal side.. I'm seeing some Referal Bonus ads and leaflets around town..
Earn $500.00 be refering a Friend for employment.
I have'nt seen those in three, maybe four years. Thats a sign the Job market is tightening up. Three years ago, you'd post an ad, and have 300 applicants. It seems (anecdotally) that companys are once again struggling to find qualified canditates.
Would'nt it be nice if the US economy went on a 5-7 year screaming growth spurt. Man -O-Man... Because I'm sitting in such a pretty position to captialize on that.
although GM losing a Billion in Q1 is nothing to sneeze at.
They're blaming health care coverage & Costs. Perhaps a Little Corporate pressure to do something about Health care in America would be good.
Health costs are out of control...and far to many people are uninsured.
General Motors Corp. reported its deepest quarterly loss in more than a decade - $1.1 billion - as rising health care costs and lackluster response to some new models hammered its North American business. With health costs not getting any cheaper and Asian automakers grabbing more of the market, the outlook for the world's largest automaker remains bleak.
The January-March loss amounted to $1.95 per share, compared with earnings of $1.3 billion, or $2.25 a share, in the year-ago quarter, when the company benefited handsomely from its finance arm and improved business in Asia.
GM makes excuses for the root cause of thier problems - extrememly poor management at the top levels. Health care costs had nothing to do with thier combined plant shut downs in excess of 10 weeks for many plants - blame that squarely on their cars not selling. Their rebate program has been a substitue for intellignet engineering and world class manufacturing. thier strtegy is to rush rush rush to get a car on the road, then finish engineering it afterwards. The lure of the rebate sells the cars. Fact is, if they invested that rebate cash into the cars and waited until they were ready to be sold, they would be in much stronger postiton. They have 100+ days of inventory on many models.
Health care costs have indeed hurt them, but it was weakness at the bargaining table that put them in this situation. The UAW has walked over GM for a decade and GM has caved in every time.
The real issue with GM is that they chose a ridiculously stupid startegy of getting rid of the high cost GM engieers who knew the systems and launched the new vehicles in favor of assining that responsiblity to Tier One suppliers to manage - and then failed to train then and lost track of most of the systems in place to make for a smooth launch. The cost downs and give backs have destroyed many suppliers and left all hurting. The technical people needed are no longer in supply, being replaced by newer, less experienced, less knowledgeable people.
GM is in denial. And looking to point fingers at everyone except themselves.
Remeber the Pogo comicstrip where Pogo declares, "We have met the enemy, it is US!"
Secretariat
04-19-2005, 09:30 PM
Suff,
I too am worried. Despite what some may think of my politics, I am invested in the market and would much rather see the market do well than poorly as it affects my bottom line. However, I do not beleive the ramficiations of inflation have yet been realized. The core inflation figures do not count health care and energy, and the trickle down of energy costs will play out later.
The refinery issues concerns me because since there have been so many gas and oil mergers over the last few years. I'm not sure why we cannot import refined gas rather than have to refine it here. We outsource everything else, why not refinery production? I am curious about the problems of bringing in refined products versus crude.
The bottom line is energy costs are going to continue to increase, the deficit is not going to go away quickly and may in fact grow larger, the Fed wil most likely continue to raise rates to control inflation, and the ability to lower rates any lower is limited, and any more tax cut by Bush would ballon the deficts further hecne weakening the dollar dramatically abroad. I have attempted to hedge my investments with many more oversea investments than I've ever had, and via short selling and commodity investment. I don't think massive short selling is an investment in Americas future (Even if profiable) and so I find making profits from that not particulary satisfying, but Suff, I agree. We are on a slippery slope.
Secretariat
04-19-2005, 09:42 PM
Forgot to add that Housing Starts are down dramatically.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=668&ncid=749&e=4&u=/ap/20050419/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy
The two major things pumping up the 2004 economy was housing, and defense spending.
PaceAdvantage
04-19-2005, 10:39 PM
Sec, my advice to you would be to go completely SHORT. Short everything! If your pessimism is even half-correct, you'll make a killing....
Put your moolah where your mouth is! BTW, how is that stock LJB gave out a couple of months ago....I think he was shorting some radio station network that was involved in some controversy linked to some anti-Kerry documentary??
How's that stock doing these days?
Guess having a running thread on an interesting week in the US Economy can't be done here. At least not without the traditional squabbling.
Any who... Looking forward to todays developments.
Ford reported a 38% drop in Earnings after the bell.. But JP morgan /chase manhattan announced a whopping 2.3 Billion with a B. in profits for Q1!
PaceAdvantage
04-20-2005, 09:44 AM
Guess having a running thread on an interesting week in the US Economy can't be done here. At least not without the traditional squabbling.
Ahh Suff, relax! Things are going well in this thread. Nobody has used the "n" word yet! (neo-con) LOL
Seriously folks, let's continue this thread in the right direction...inflationary fears bit into the market yet again at 8:30 this morning, but, although pre-open the S&P recovered much of the loss attributed to the CPI data, as of 9:45, the market is again testing the lows of this morning....
Let's see if this tech-"high" can hold for any substantial period of time.
Remember, we have yet to retrace even 50% of last week's losses, so this move up on Monday and Tuesday is still relatively anemic. Dead-cat bounce in effect? We'll most likely test last week's lows sometime soon...maybe even today...
Dow +37, Nasdaq +9, S&P +0.18
[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks open higher, as the market embraces better than expected Q1 earnings amid revived inflation fears... Sixteen of this morning's 23 S&P companies out with results have beaten analysts' forecasts, in the wake of Intel's (INTC 23.18 +0.55) strong report last night... However, with the core rate on March CPI up an unexpected 0.4% - double what economists had anticipated - inflation fears remain on the front burner... So far, the market has shown strong follow through, perhaps also in light of yesterday's favorable core-PPI reading, but rising bond yields - as the 10-year note is still off 12 ticks yielding 4.26% - have arguably minimized gains across the board... ..NYSE Adv/Dec /. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec /.
Secretariat
04-20-2005, 11:36 AM
The inflation issue is going to get uglier, (and btw PA I have shorted stocks. You miss my point. I don't feel making personal profit while companies head further toward bankruptcy is a good thing for the economy even though it might help my personal ledger.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050420/economy.html?.v=7
11:30 ET Dow +24, Nasdaq +5, S&P -1.28
[WWW.BRIEFING.COM
Both the Dow and Nasdaq hold onto modest gains, but market internals still suggest a slightly negative sentiment... Decliners on the NYSE hold an 8 to 7 advantage over advancers while declining issues on the Nasdaq hold a slimmer 15 to 13 margin over advancing issues... The ratio of up to down volumes, however, suggests a more mixed bias, with up volume outpacing down volume on the Composite by a 2 to 1 margin... Meanwhile, the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq continue to trade above initial support levels but have failed to push through resistance levels of 10150, 1153 and 1940, respectively... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1423/1608. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1314/1524
I can't make this stuff up
Boston-area economists most accurate
By Barbara Hagenbaugh, USA TODAY
It's Boston's year.
Sure, the Red Sox won the World Series and the Patriots came out on top in the Super Bowl, but the real proof that Boston is on a roll comes with news that the three most accurate forecasters on USA TODAY's panel of economists in 2004 were from the Boston area.
What makes it even more interesting is that there are only three economists from the Boston area on the panel.
Nariman Behravesh, the most accurate of the 43 economists surveyed each quarter last year by USA TODAY, says Boston's proximity to a number of top universities, including MIT and Harvard, attracts sharp minds and offers some opportunity for collaboration.
"There are just a lot of good economists around here, so there's probably payoff from that," says Behravesh, 57, chief economist at Global Insight in Lexington, Mass.
.
Here is the complete list of top forecasters, with their current predictions for the Federal Reserve's target for short-term interest rates at the end of 2005. The current 2.5% rate is expected to rise to 2.75% after the Fed meeting Tuesday:
1-Nariman Behravesh, Global Insight in Boston. 4%.
2-Timothy Rogers, Briefing.com in Boston. 3.75%.
3-David Kelly, chief economist, Putnam in Boston. 4%.
4-Richard DeKaser, chief economist, National City in Cleveland. 4%.
5-David Resler, chief economist, Nomura Securities in New York. 3.5%
6-Paul Kasriel, director of economic research, Northern Trust in Chicago. 3.75%.
7-Christopher Rupkey, financial economist, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, New York. 4%.
8-Ethan Harris, chief U.S. economist, Lehman Bros. in New York. 3.75%.
9-Robert Shrouds, corporate economist, DuPont in Wilmington, Del. 4%
10-Tim McGee, chief economist, U.S. Trust in New York. 4%
PaceAdvantage
04-20-2005, 04:14 PM
Remember, we have yet to retrace even 50% of last week's losses, so this move up on Monday and Tuesday is still relatively anemic. Dead-cat bounce in effect? We'll most likely test last week's lows sometime soon...maybe even today...
Dead-on analysis....wouldn't you say? LOL
You could have made some serious cash today following my advice....
Dead-on analysis....wouldn't you say? LOL
You could have made some serious cash today following my advice....
Ker..................... Plunk
DJIA 10,012.36 - 115.05
Nasdaq 1,913.76 - 18.60
S&P 500 1,137.50 - 15.28
Forbes 40 2,078.19 - 15.27
Russell 2000 585.67 - 9.27
CPI index +.6 , I have two words for you. Jimmy Carter
Sec, my advice to you would be to go completely SHORT. Short everything! If your pessimism is even half-correct, you'll make a killing....
Put your moolah where your mouth is! BTW, how is that stock LJB gave out a couple of months ago....I think he was shorting some radio station network that was involved in some controversy linked to some anti-Kerry documentary??
How's that stock doing these days?
Pa,
The short play on Sinclair Broadcasting Group made me a tidy profit. I also achieved additional goals in that action. I do not know how the stock is doing now as I currently have no interest in it.
The market has no idea what it wants to do. PA.. how many times does a dead cat bounce?
12:30 ET Dow +130, Nasdaq +34, S&P +14.04
Stocks spike to session highs following a stronger than expected read on regional manufacturing... At the top of the hour, the Philadelphia Fed's index jumped to 25.3 (consensus 10.0) - the highest level since December - which will bode well for the upcoming April ISM national index (May 2)... The upside surprise has countered the recent plunge in the April NY manufacturing index - which suggested a slowdown in manufacturing expansion - and raised suspicions about whether economic growth has actually slowed as much as the market has recently thought... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 2205/880. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1972/899
Look at the % of Adv to Dec..... better than 5/2 On NYSE and 2-1 @ nasdaq
NYSE Vol: 866 mln.. Adv: [B]2205.. Dec: 880
Nasdaq Vol: 990 mln.. Adv: 1972.. Dec: 899
DJIA 10,131.70 + 119.34
Nasdaq 1,944.21 + 30.45
S&P 500 1,150.27 + 12.77
Forbes 40 2,099.29 + 24.14
Russell 2000 594.85 + 9.89
10-Yr Treasury 4.28% 0.070
PaceAdvantage
04-21-2005, 03:38 PM
So much for the declining stock market and end-of-the-world scenarios....
Seems like VERY ENCOURAGING earnings reports coupled with BETTER THAN EXPECTED EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS have triggered a turn around....
So much for the declining stock market and end-of-the-world scenarios....
Seems like VERY ENCOURAGING earnings reports coupled with BETTER THAN EXPECTED EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS have triggered a turn around....
The numbers were better today...and getting better..
But you called 115 a Dead Count Bounce... now your letting the reigns out at 185. ??
One of the best day's in the market in a loooong looong time...
Dare I say if we get a triple digit gain tommorrow... we're booming!
Dow 15,000 coming up. Tell you what..Oil drops to 40 bucks...Its ON!
Closing Bell Brief
16:20 ET Dow +206.24 at 10218.60, Nasdaq +48.65 at 1962.41, S&P +22.45 at 1159.95
[BRIEFING.COM] Robust earnings, optimistic economic data and promising M&A deals charged up the bulls, as huge gains across the board erased Wednesday's weakness and lifted each of the major indices at least 2.0%... Better than expected Q1 earnings from the majority S&P companies out with results today (28 of 42) was the driving force behind today's broad-based rally... In addition to upbeat Q1 reports from Nokia (NOK 16.38 +1.04), Motorola (MOT 15.90 +0.97) and eBay (EBAY 32.96 -0.15) last night, strong reports from a multitude of blue chips this morning - from Merck (MRK 34.34 +0.27) to Marriott (MAR 63.35 +1.15) - further alleviated concerns that profit growth is not slowing... The notion that the market may be oversold, as the major averages have averaged an 8.4% loss so far in 2005, also created bargain hunting opportunities as the Dow bounced off the psychological 10,000 level and soared more than 175 points for the first time since Nov. 4, 2004... Uplifting economic data also helped underpin a bullish bias and diminish recent indications of economic softness... Initial claims fell 36K to 296K (consensus 329K) - the largest decline in more than three years - during a key week in which the April employment survey was conducted... A stronger than expected jump in the April Philadelphia Fed's index, to 25.3 (consensus 10.0) - the highest level since December - countered the recent plunge in the April NY manufacturing index and also raised doubts about whether economic growth has actually slowed as much as the market has recently thought... Meanwhile, a $17.6 bln cash and stock deal for bankrupt Adelphia, a $14.2 bln buyout of Allied Domecq (AED 50.93 +0.81) and the $3.5 bln merger between the NYSE and Archipelago (AX 27.15 +8.39) - which will take the Big Board public - also contributed to an improved sentiment that closed all 10 economic sectors in positive territory... Energy paced the way higher, helped in part by a rebound in oil prices, while Industrials and Consumer Discretionary also surged more than 2.0%... While crude oil futures ($54.20/bbl +$0.17) were under pressure most of the day, amid reports that OPEC will increase oil production capacity, the commodity closed modestly higher amid news that militants attacked a security checkpoint in Mecca, Saudi Arabia... Technology (+3.2%) was strong across the board, as gains in excess of 2.0% in everything from Semiconductor to Software helped the Nasdaq soar 2.5% -- the Composite's best one-day gain since Dec. 1, 2004... Transportation (+3.5%) also soared, recording its best performance in nearly two years, aided by stronger than expected earnings from United Parcel Service (UPS 70.61 +3.35) and Union Pacific (UNP 64.92 +1.59) and even bargain hunting in air carriers like Northwest Airlines (NWAC 5.94 +0.54) and Delta Air Lines (DAL 3.90 +0.25), despite wider than expected losses from both... Health Care (+1.4%) was also strong, taking full advantage of strong Q1 earnings from the likes of ABC, GDT, ROH and BAX... Financial - the most influential of the 10 economic sectors - was the worst performer, in the face of rising bond yields as well as a 94% drop in Q1 profits and FY05 EPS warning from MBNA (KRB 19.28 -3.83), but still managed a solid gain... Treasurys, however, were weak all day long, as the benchmark 10-year note finished near session lows, down 29 ticks to yield 4.30%... Bonds initially lost ground after weekly jobless claims plunged to a 10-week low, but they fell even further following an unexpected jump in Philly Fed... Fed Chief Greenspan testified before the Senate Banking Committee on deficits and budget reform, but his comments had almost no impact on the bond market... Separately, Mar. leading indicators fell 0.4% - its seventh decline over the last 10 months - but as a lagging indicator providing a very false read on the strong economic momentum, the data have had little impact on market activity... ..DJTA +3.5%. ..DJUA +1.3%. ..SOX +2.8%. ..DOT +3.4%. ..XOI +2.3%. ..BTK +1.1%. ..Nasdaq 100 +2.9%. ..S&P Midcap 400 +1.8%. ..Russell 2000 +2.4%. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 2416/881. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 2219/845.
PaceAdvantage
04-21-2005, 04:58 PM
My prediction on Wednesday was spot on. We tested the lows, like I said we would soon ("maybe even today" were my exact words). I didn't say anything about today (Thursday).
It still hasn't retraced even 50% of last weeks declines. Until it does, and surpasses 50% retracement, I won't be confident in any long term gains.
That said, I was LONG in all my holdings last week, and THIS week. Only today has everything finally gone green. I'm still long everything.
These are my current swing trades:
Long SPG from 61.85
Long LSCC from 4.82 (earnings release Friday morning)
Long PSS from 13.86
Long STN from 64.39
Day trading is a whole different ball of wax. I don't do much daytrading anymore, expect in index futures, and even those I am thinking of giving up on soon.
PaceAdvantage
04-21-2005, 05:13 PM
Actually, I take that back. The S&P did pretty much hit the 50% retracement level today, based on the decline that started last Wednesday, and promptly bounced off of it. The resistance level still holds....
Long LSCC from 4.82 (earnings release Friday morning)
on soon.
Red = DJIA.
A ten year historical average shows Price stays within tracking range of Dow. If trending stays consistent, that Gap should tighten tommorrow. Tech overall is flat, however INTEL Q1 should get you some "feel good" oomph by just being in the sector. If you get nice earnings, as you see, the ceiling is high to get back to traditional trading range.
Kreed
04-21-2005, 06:24 PM
I'm gone 3 days & Suff & PA form a symbiosis. Ping & Pong. You GO GUYS.
Suff is closing in on TOM's 25,000th Post. I'm jealous cause I want to work less, be more idle like you, but I like your stock-wall st comments; its good to see an involved public. Careful not to over analyse the street cause it really reacts to everything but ONLY responds to liquidity. It's the Response NOT the Reactions that really matter. The usual day-to-day stuff makes variations, but says
little; yet, the basics remain: WILL corporate spending step up to the plate?
or, once again, will the Consumer bail us out, only to be scolded to Save More?
And stats like jobs & earnings -- honest, the reports US citizens have access
to are shabby ... earnings are "corrected" always, but who knows? hehe ...
its a game and some win big & many more do ok.
I'm gone 3 days & Suff & PA form a symbiosis. Ping & Pong. You GO GUYS.
.
Little known fact... I have my Series 6 & 7, and for good measure I have the 22 and 63 as well. Had them for 12+ Years. Oppenhiemer was my intial sponsor. I've been carried by small Private equity firm in Boston for the last few years as a Favor.
PaceAdvantage
04-21-2005, 07:22 PM
Lattice (LSCC) earnings out tonight....beat by a penny (.06) vs (.07est) (Excluding charges) and beat on revenues (highest estimate was 50.5m, actual was 51.3m)
Lattice (LSCC) earnings out tonight....beat by a penny (.06) vs (.07est) (Excluding charges) and beat on revenues (highest estimate was 50.5m, actual was 51.3m)
Morning Brief
BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -3.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.5. Futures market suggesting a lower open for the cash market amid possible consolidation following the largest one-day stock rally in nearly two years... Investors are also weighing a surge in oil prices against a mixed batch of earnings reports... Crude oil futures have climbed back toward $55/bbl amid concerns that increasing gasoline demand may put a strain on refineries while EPS warnings from Costco (COST) have arguably diverted some attention from Google's (GOOG) excellent Q1 report
PaceAdvantage
04-22-2005, 10:25 AM
It's weird, Reuters basically said LSCC missed a tad on revenues. I guess Yahoo has incorrect data up on their analysts page. Somebody got that one wrong.
LSCC is basically doing nothing today so far...I should have bailed late yesterday afternoon, like my signals told me to do....but, I always like to hold into earnings if I am already profitable with a stock....
It's weird, Reuters basically said LSCC missed a tad on revenues. I guess Yahoo has incorrect data up on their analysts page. Somebody got that one wrong.
LSCC is basically doing nothing today so far...I should have bailed late yesterday afternoon, like my signals told me to do....but, I always like to hold into earnings if I am already profitable with a stock....
Technology over all is Unflavorable this morning
10:00 Am brief
BRIEFING.COM] Equities still on the defensive as eight of ten economic sectors remain negative... Pacing the way lower has been Technology (-0.8%), amid widespread consolidation in the wake of the Nasdaq's strong 2.5% performance... Consumer Discretionary (-0.7%) has also been weak, assisted lower by Costco's (COST 39.96 -4.06) downside guidance as well as a worse than expected quarter from Maytag (MYG 11.50 -3.60)... Utility, however, has eked out a modest gain, benefiting from a modest recovery in the bond market, while Energy has inched into positive territory amid rising oil prices and a strong quarter from Halliburton (HAL 43.89 +0.56)... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 957/1517. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 787/1496.
Lattice (LSCC) earnings out tonight....beat by a penny (.06) vs (.07est) (Excluding charges) and beat on revenues (highest estimate was 50.5m, actual was 51.3m)
I suppose you gotta hang on until you see how much of this was Just sector related.
LATTICE SEMICONDUCTOR CORP (NASDAQ-NM:LSCC)
LAST CHANGE
4.550 0.34 (-6.95%)
Secretariat
04-22-2005, 07:15 PM
So much for the declining stock market and end-of-the-world scenarios....
Seems like VERY ENCOURAGING earnings reports coupled with BETTER THAN EXPECTED EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS have triggered a turn around....
I wouldn't call a one day gain a turnaround. We're back to reality today. Dow down about 7% for the year and Nasdaq 11%. Part of the Bush economy in action. Even Greenspan is now saying taxes will have to be raised.
PaceAdvantage
04-22-2005, 08:12 PM
I'm very angry for myself for holding onto LSCC even though I had a clear exit signal late Thursday afternoon, before earnings were released. Now I am holding onto a POS out of greed, hoping it turns around before it hits my drop-dead stop.
This is the worst kind of sin lady's and gentlemen, especially when you are trading short term. Always obey your signals, and never let a gain turn into a big loss.....
I'm very angry at myself. Hopefully, I can finally learn my lesson....
PaceAdvantage
04-26-2005, 04:10 PM
Because I posted my current holdings in this thread, I thought it only fair to update when I liquidate....
Today I sold my STN @ 68.25 for a gain of 5.88% in one week.
Unforunately, I still didn't learn my lesson on LSCC. I could have gotten out today with a profit, but instead, once again watched it turn around and dive off a cliff, back to the low where it was two days ago....I could shoot myself over this one....
46zilzal
04-26-2005, 04:24 PM
worse that any 15th class race track
Because I posted my current holdings in this thread, I thought it only fair to update when I liquidate....
Today I sold my STN @ 68.25 for a gain of 5.88% in one week.
Unforunately, I still didn't learn my lesson on LSCC. I could have gotten out today with a profit, but instead, once again watched it turn around and dive off a cliff, back to the low where it was two days ago....I could shoot myself over this one....
I thought you would have sat....and i would have done the same thing. By the way, I did some research on that firm. They're currently embroiled in some Class actions, and a brief look at thier Mangement team also showed they have an individual history of Stock Holder Class action. SEC forced them to re-state earnings in 10/03
I saw it up 5.25% on Monday... Of course +5.25% after a -7% whack is really like +4.75% net. because the base number is lower. eg.. 10% of $30.00 = $3.00, = $27.00 and if you get a 10% bounce back, your still -1.0% because 10% of 27.00 is $2.70.
worse that any 15th class race track
u takin stupid pills today?
46zilzal
04-26-2005, 04:48 PM
u takin stupid pills today?
No but two of my very close freinds have been rotuinely taken to the cleaners in this arena...
Have no direct experience with it
lsbets
04-26-2005, 04:48 PM
u takin stupid pills today?
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
46zilzal
04-26-2005, 05:05 PM
not right, not wrong...just different. It would be refreshing to find some people (OUTSIDE of a UNIVERSITY) who belived in that tennant.
Not going to hold my breath however
PaceAdvantage
04-26-2005, 05:05 PM
Have no direct experience with it
I know a couple of bums at the OTB who never have a dime to their name...racetrack took them to the cleaners....yet you are still betting....
See the point? There is none...
46zilzal
04-26-2005, 07:48 PM
You do not know a thing about me even with your comparisons
u takin stupid pills today?
Nobody says so much with so few words as you do! :lol:
PaceAdvantage
04-27-2005, 01:39 AM
You do not know a thing about me even with your comparisons
I know all I need to know regarding this particular thread. You said the stock market is "worse than any 15th class track" because, in addition to any undisclosed beliefs you have about the market, you revealed that you have two friends that lost a lot of money in the stock market.
Thus, you believe the market is a fools game (and urgo, I am also a fool, since I trade the markets).
You have also made it clear on this board that you are a handicapper (and I assume a horseplayer) with very clear cut convictions on how to go about profiting from the races.
I say to you that I know a couple of broke horseplayers at the local OTB. Does this mean you should stop playing the races, even if you are making money at the game? Of course you shouldn't.
See the point yet?
46zilzal
04-27-2005, 02:02 AM
Thus, you believe the market is a fools game (and urgo, I am also a fool, since I trade the markets).
I
What a quantum leap!....You should be a clarevoyant or something. Reminds me of the old tale about the blindmen and the elephant :JUMPING TO CONCLUSIONS BASED UPON A VERY LIMITED PIECE OF EVIDENCE
Nope. Did not mention foolish once, nor even consider that title for ANYONE, but simply riskier than anything I would ever want to deal with based upon, admitedly, limited and secondary experience that's all. I wouldn't trust it.
PaceAdvantage
04-27-2005, 02:10 AM
OK then, my apologies. I mistook your "worse than any 15th class track" to mean something else.
:rolleyes:
PS. Someone recently criticized me about never admitting my mistakes (I think it was the genius who was lambasting jockey Jeremy Rose in three other threads). Well buddy, here's my second public apology in under one hour. How you like dem apples?
46zilzal
04-27-2005, 02:18 AM
Are easlily clarified between rational people
PaceAdvantage
05-04-2005, 10:18 AM
OK, keeping with full disclosure, I got rid of my PSS holding on Monday for a whopping gain of .51% or half a percent....LOL I got out most at 13.90 and some at 13.94.
PaceAdvantage
05-16-2005, 03:00 AM
Some more full disclosure, and an end to my public stock postings....
I got out of my SPG holdings at $66.60 for a gain of 7.6%
My ultimate disaster came to an end, finally, when I got rid of all my LSCC holdings at $4.21 for a loss of 12.5%
The ultimate lesson learned....DO NOT, under ANY CIRCUMSTANCES, ignore an EXIT SIGNAL when you have a PROFIT (or if you have a loss, but especially if you have a profit).
I ignored my clear EXIT signal on the eve of earnings for LSCC, hoping to squeeze a bit more profit, as earnings had been good for other semi stocks lately. I even had a SECOND chance to exit this stock at a profit, AFTER EARNINGS were released, but I failed to pull the trigger, as greed took over once more.
I paid dearly for ignoring my signal and siding with GREED. It ruined what was a good return with SPG.
Hopefully, I've learned my lesson once and for all....
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