Some (very) early DERBY thoughts..

[fmhealth]

With all the preps now complete, the Derby picture is beginning to look a little clearer. I love to use a 14 point system that has pointed to most of the winners (go ahead, I'm ready for the pummeling). Here's what I've come up with so far.

Only FOUR horses meet ALL the criteria that has been historically needed to win this race. They are:

1- Afleet Alex

2- Bandini

3- Noble Causeway

4- Buzzards Bay(if he Beyered at least 100 in the SA Derby)

Some notable "throwouts" are:

1-Bellamy Road-- A remarkable 98% of all Derby winners in the past 50 years have had AT LEAST three starts as a 3 yr old. Only exception was Sunny's Halo in 1983. BR has only two.

2-Fly High--Last Derby winner with a five week "layoff" was Needles in 1955.

3-High Limit--Exterminator in 1918 was the last Derby winner with less than five lifetime starts.

Just one man's opinion. But the top 4 will be my per & tri boxes. Looking way ahead to The BELMONT STAKES. IF, Afleet Alex does win the Derby, he'll have a legitimate shot at the TC. He's the only one of the four qualifiers that has had that crucial race over the Belmont DIRT strip( NC raced on the Turf at Bel). This has proven to be the downfall of ALL TC candidates. No dirt race at Bel, no TC.

Best of luck!!!!!!!

[kingfin66]

fm,

I'm not going to "pummel" you, but I am going to strongly disagree that Bellamy Road is a throw out. History, or no history, this horse can run. Remember, NY bred geldings weren't supposed to have a chance either, but a Funny (Cide) thing happened.

[Suff]

The best thing I see coming out of the Preps, is a "anybodys race" field.

We could be looking at a favorite of 4-1, or even 9-2. Top two favorites could be a $71.00 exacta.

[DerbyTrail]

FMH is pretty much on target.. Of the historical trends, I think a case can be made this year against concern for the 5 week layoff for High Fly.. After four serious J/F/M/A races (1 at a mile and 3 at 9f), the break should be OK for him under the care of Zito. Remember that he ran the big Aventura off the break... I'd downgrade Noble Causeway a tad as he is still developing and should be best later on. I also think Bellamy Road has enough bottom from his sophomore campaign to run well again. (And let's face it.. he can regress a TON and still be in the mix..)

Remember going in that Derby success generally comes from horses "pairing up" efforts or returning to their "top".. not "peaking" (running new tops) on Derby Day.

[lsbets]

I think this Derby can see some good prices. I am going to go against Bellamy Road, and while I like Afleet Alex, I also like High Fly and am not going to toss Sun King either despite yesterday's race. I'll play the three of them over all of the horses who have Beyered 100 before Derby day and cash a nice exacta. ;)

[DJofSD]

Has a current total of grade stakes earnings been posted anywhere yet?

DJofSD

[grahors]

I have read somewhere about historicaly, last 23 of 25 winners have clocked final quarters in their last 2 that add up to < 51?????? Can anyone confirm and if so how do the contenders look on this. I haven't had a chance to check yet. Probably a dumb ? but how would you calc this? My brain has frozen up.

[douglasw32]

http://www.chef-de-race.com/2005_derby_pace_parameters.htm :confused:

[Tom]

From a dog race filed to very interesting in two weeks....amazing. Several horses look to make it a nice betting race.

Interesting article over at Randy Giles's blog site - talking about the pace and speed figures his program has assigned.

[ceejay]

Tom,

What it the URL for that blog?

[fmhealth]

Upon further review my choices have been cut exactly in half. Steve Haskins from the "Blood Horse " tells me that Buzzards Bay came away with a 98 Beyer in the SA Derby, he's out. Also Noble Causeway is in direct violation of the 5-week rule, I'm tossing him as well.

My "final" Derby picks are Afleet Alex & Bandini.. Of course I reserve the right to alter these selections as the "big day" nears.

As for my betting strategy, it's now the following.

PERs & TRIs--AA with Bandini, BB & NC

Bandini with AA, BB & NC

I'll also "backwheel" both AA & Bandini in the OAKS-DERBY D/D.

Best of luck!!!!!

[douglasw32]

My Short List

Consolidator 1-1
AFLEET ALEX 5/2
Bandini 9/2
Bellamy Road 5-1
High Limit 6-1

If it was run Today :)

I want to see works at CD First.

[douglasw32]

http://www.paceappraiser.com/blog/

[Lasix1]

Nice post, FMHealth. My immediate reaction was that this may not be a normal year. The weak crop coming out of Kentucky after the Mare Reproductive Loss Syndrome, killed many foals that surely would have been contenders in this year's Derby. But the numbers you mention are impressive and it will be hard to bet against them. Thanks for pointing them out.

[NYPlayer]

After watching Bellamy Road in the Wood, I think it's pointless to make historical comparisons. Bellamy may well be a super champion in the making. Sure he might bounce off of that spectacular performance in the Wood, but I think even if he doesn't run as well, he'll still win. He was underated by BSF going into the Wood. Sheets had him rated much better as a 2yo and the allowance win at GP was about 8 lengths better than Survivalist's best fig.

My plan is to bet the Triple and possibly the Super with Bellamy on top. The other horse I think I might key on is Afleet Alex. He looked like a legitimate contender as a 2yo and the rebound in the Arkansas Derby was solid. He goes in for 2nd and 3rd.

The questions is, who else to use? None of the other contenders looks attractive, so I'm gonna go price shopping. I can't wait to see how Rockport Harbor does in the Lexington. I expect the picture will get clearer over the next couple of weeks, and I'd want to see the sheet on each horse before making a final decision.

[Doc]

Hey fm, was wondering what you thought of Rockport Harbor.


I like Bandini a lot, too. Who are the legitimate closers in this year's field? I remember using Aptitude in a lot of my exotics back in 2000 because he appeared like the one who could pick up the pieces in deep stretch. Any prospective Aptitudes on May 7?

Doc

[rastajenk]

How 'bout Flower Alley or Survivalist? They might be closing at nice odds to fill out a gimmick combo.

[46zilzal]

He usually reports on works leading up to the big dance and it behooves people to be aware of this funny old surface: not all the nags LIKE it. He used to give comments on trackmaster leading up to the race, and most wre "right on."

Comments are based upon SEEING the work not just evaluating the times relative to the masses working there in the AM.

[OTM Al]

Honestly, I think High Fly may turn out to be the best value of the lot. I can live with his 5 weeks off much easier than Noble Causeway's being that High Fly ran in 4 stakes races since the begining of the year, winning 3 and having an awful trip in the other. Don't think anyone else has run that well in that many stakes. He should be wound up and ready to go and he did beat Bandini. I really thought poorly of the Florida contingent earlier this year, but I may be changing my mind on that.

[fmhealth]

Doc, Rockport Harbor is a dynamo!!! I personally toss him because he'll only have 2 starts as a 3 yr old. Maybe he along with BR are the "real deal". I try to make my choices in these TC races simply based upon history.

As for the others that may fill out the tri & Super. I'm going with Noble Causeway, Buzzards Bay & possibly Greater Good. I have always bet too much into these races & usually wind up with just a pile of losing tickets.

Best of luck!!

[Doc]

Same here, fm. A friend of mine who's a public handicapper for one of the major dailies NEVER bets the Triple Crown races and the Breeders' Cup...says they're way too tough and unpredictable. He concentrates on the bread-and-butter stock that makes up the typical cards at local tracks. I should take his advice, because I never make any serious money on the big races.

[OTM Al]

Doc-

That's not at all bad advice from your friend if that is the game he is more comfortable with. For me though, there are 2 days a year that I will not miss betting into the races...Derby Day and BC day. The reason is because these are the two times when overlays are everywhere you look. So much money is going into the pools on horses that have no shot, that I simply can't pass on the opportunity. Last year for me Smarty and Lionheart were such a clear 1-2 that it was ridiculous...so ridiculous in fact that the exacta paid $60 and these were the top 2 betting choices!!!! When else are you going to get an opportunity to tap into so much sucker money? (I hate calling these bettors suckers because they sure make me happy and wish there were a lot more like them, but it is what it is). The flip side is that they can be very tough races to handicap, but that is the challenge for me and I do love a challenge, especially one that has in general far better payoffs than a normal day at the races.

[Doc]

OTM Al -

You're right about the overlays. Which horses are you zeroing-in on for this year's Derby?

[OTM Al]

Doc-

Haven't finished all calculations on that one yet and I still want to see how Rocky does this weekend...guess his trainer does too by the stories coming out this week. My take at the moment is to say that I want High Fly in all slots on any ticket I get. I think he's been lost in the shuffle and definitely has more quality than he is being given credit for....3 out of 4 stakes wins and the third he had trouble or would have won it as well. That sort of campaign does not make me worry about the 5 week layoff as he has pretty much the best resume of the lot. I still like Alex as well. He very much fits the same mold that Smarty Jones had last year, so he will probably be on top as well. I find Bellamy Road interesting. I may slot him in only underneath in the exotics, but if he comes out onto the track with anything like the look he had at the Wood (I have never seen a horse glow like that, man he looked great that day) I might be tempted to upgrade him. I still am not a fan of Bandini. He is good, don't get me wrong, but the Bluegrass seemed too well set up for him, and I think he may be an underlay along with Bellamy Road. Anything coming out of California, I really want no part of this year. High Limit and Noble Causeway I think may be too inexperienced. I think I bet Noble Causeway on his first 3 races, so that tells you there is something I like about him, though I think he may have his date with destiny in Elmont NY come early June. Not ready to take any of the others seriously right now. Am kinda glad Blues and Royals isn't coming though. I know he had very little experience, but that guy may become a real monster this summer and I had no idea what to do with him.

[Lasix1]

Doc-
For me though, there are 2 days a year that I will not miss betting into the races...Derby Day and BC day. The reason is because these are the two times when overlays are everywhere you look. So much money is going into the pools on horses that have no shot, that I simply can't pass on the opportunity.
I couldn't agree more. Being a value handicapper is tough going on ordinary days at the track. Sometimes an entire card goes off without one decent overlay. Add this to the fact that underlays always outperform overlays, and you get some long dry spells. But BC and Derby Day are a whole other matter. The biggest scores I've every had are on those days and the money seems to rain out of the sky.

If they ran the Derby every week, I wouldn't have to work anymore. :D

[Richard]

IMHO,I believe it's going to be a lot tougher in the Derby for horses racing this and next weekend.I dont think they'll have ample time to rest and then take on 1-1/4M and the Triple Crown.

[Doc]

OTM Al -

High Fly reminds me very much of Monarchos in 2001 when he came to Louisville and got very little respect. Although as I recall Monarchos won the Fla. Derby and then didn't win his last prep race before the Derby, hence the $23 payoff. High Fly could get lost in the shuffle, too...his Fla. Derby win was just far enough back in memory that 'cappers may jump on the "now" horse bandwagon, like Bellamy Road or Afleet Alex or Bandini. Bellamy Road reminds me a lot of another horse in '01 - Balto Star. He took a ton of money at the windows because of a blowout victory he had but ran up the track behind Monarchos. I have always liked Rockport Harbor and will use him on my tickets if he runs. Andromeda's Hero and Flower Alley, like someone mentioned above, should be good to use in the gimmicks. Andromeda's Hero was actually checked in midstretch of the Ark. Derby but galloped out strongly past the wire.

Doc